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Society

James Forsyth

The best and the worst ways for all this to end for Labour and the Tories

As we all await ten o’clock (and there’ll be full coverage on Coffee House if anything kicks off then) and the second editions of the paper to see where the plot stands, it is worth looking at the best and worst conclusions to the Labour leadership crisis for the two main parties: Worst for Labour, best for the Tories: Brown stays as PM but bottles out of moving Darling. The result: a lame duck PM and a lame duck Chancellor. The Tories would love facing a Chancellor who clearly doesn’t have the confidence of the Prime Minister and a Prime Minister who was too weak to reshuffle as he wanted

James Forsyth

Sing a song for Labour

Late last week, we asked who should sing for Labour? (There had been reports that the party was having trouble finding a big name musical act for its annual fundraising do). Thomas Fry came up with the clever suggestion of Gordon Brown singing The Beatles’ ‘I don’t want to spoil the party so I’ll go’. There’s no doubt that would be music to the ears of most Labour MPs. The idea of having D-Ream reprise ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ was also neat. But the winner is Boudica for her suggestion of having a Stones tribute band sing, ‘The Last Time’. Boudica if you want to send us an email

Rory Sutherland

Fight the wine orthodoxy!

One of the first predictions at the first sign of an economic downturn was the fear of a rapid rise in general mean-spiritedness – leading to nationalism, protectionism and worse. In some areas, though, a bout of grumpy nationalism wouldn’t be a bad thing. Especially if the backlash is directed against those rootless British metropolitans who are so revolted by anything natively British they are now incapable of leaving London except to go abroad. If anyone has plans to start the ‘Pies not Pasta’ food movement, they’ll find me their first supporter. But there is something more immediate all readers of this blog can do to force the pace of

Fraser Nelson

How would CoffeeHousers reform our democracy?

I would like to call on the substantial collective wisdom of CoffeeHousers. What changes do we need to make to Britain’s democracy? Once, this would have been a closed debate – with Gordon Brown setting up a “national” committee then telling us what we think. Now, we can gatecrash – and this is what The Spectator proposes to do. We’re teaming up wth PoliticsHome to start what should be a massive online consultation to take the debate outside of the Village. In my political column today I ask for suggestions, from select committee membership to having a directly-elected PM. To kick of the debate, click here (or click on one

James Forsyth

Brown’s Balls-up

The question of whether Brown makes Balls Chancellor is still generally regarded as the key to what happens next. But it is worth pointing out that there is a huge danger to Brown in backing down now that he has gone so far: talking about Darling’s tenure at the Treasury in the past tense and refusing to confirm that he’ll keep him in post. If Brown fails to follow through, it will be clear that this is because he could not command the support of his Cabinet if he did make the appointment. Churchill’s comment about Suez springs to mind, ‘I wouldn’t have dared start but I certainly wouldn’t have

James Forsyth

Suspended animation

In public, the pause button has been pressed on the plot against Brown. The broadcasters cannot report because of election law and Labour MPs are keeping their counsel until the polls close. Of course, behind the scenes the plotting–from all I’m hearing–is continuing apace.  There are rumours circling about which Minister, MP or party grandee will be the first off the blocks after ten o’clock with a call for Brown to go. There will be very little overnight counting and declaration, so anyone who says their bit tonight can be fairly certain that they will leads the news in the morning; turning the pressure on Brown up another notch at the

James Forsyth

Obama misses the problems behind the problems

Obama’s speech to the ‘Muslim world’ in Egypt was full of necessary fictions. But more substantively it set out what Obama sees as seven areas where progress must be made if tensions are to be eased: the fight against violent extremism, Israel / Palestine, Iran’s nuclear ambition, democracy, religious freedom, womens’ rights and economic development. Missing from the speech was a clear appreciation that violent extremism comes out of an extremist ideology. Violent extremism cannot be defeated until the ideology that lies behind it is tackled. It was also, to my mind, a mistake to relegate democracy to fourth place in Obama’s list. In anything other than the short term,

Is there a graphologist in the house?

In his analysis of Blears’ resignation letter and Brown’s response, the Times’s Philip Collins picks up on one of the strangest minor details of the entire saga: neither letter, in 12 whole paragraphs, contains one full-stop.  As Collins quips wonderfully: “No full stop appears in either letter.  New Labour began with no verbs and it ends in no punctuation.” But what could it mean?  A quick internet search for “graphology” and “no full-stops” has proved fruitless, so maybe CoffeeHousers have some ideas.  Are Gordon and Hazel revealing an inner desire for things not to end?  Or are they just following the government style guide?  Your theories below, please.

Look to the reshuffle to see whether Brown’s enemies have any bottle

And so we come to Election Day 2009.  But the voting itself is being overshadowed by the melodrama on Downing Street; or at least being anticipated through the prism of What It All Means for Gordon.  For any CoffeeHousers who have been out of the country for the past few days – and even those who haven’t – there’s a great summary of events by Francis Elliot in today’s Times.  But the question remains of what will happen next.  Personally, I can’t see the election results being much better than a disaster for Labour, so the pressure on Brown will certainly be ratcheted up a notch.  But will the plotters

James Forsyth

Labour behind UKIP in final pre European election poll

YouGov has just released a European Election voting intention poll and it has Labour in third behind UKIP. The poll has the Tories on 26, UKIP 18, Labour on 16, the Lib Dems 15, the Greens 10 and the BNP on 5. However, if those not certain to vote are included the numbers become the Tories 37, Labour 21, Lib Dem 19 and UKIP 8. So, who can get their vote out is going to be key. It is hard to imagine that Labour supporters are going to feel particularly enthusiastic about voting for their party in the current circumstances. Obviously, what Labour gets and where it finishes is the politically

James Forsyth

Straw praises Smith and slams Blears

Jack Straw has just been on Channel 4 News drawing contrasts between Jacqui Smith’s ‘dignified’ exit and Hazel Blears’. Straw made clear that he didn’t think Smith had leaked the news of her own departure, saying he had known about it for a month. Straw seemed happy to imply that he shared the rage that many Labour members are feeling towards Blears right now. There is no doubt that by resigning on the eve of these elections Blears has cost Labour votes and councillors their seats. The next question is how does Blears respond to the briefings against her both public and private. I slightly expect there now to be

Fraser Nelson

The Mandelson spin manual

No one does it better than The Prince. So I have written up Lord Mandelson’s comments on Simon Mayo’s R5 programme (which I mentioned earlier) as they set a template for all ministers who will try to get through the next five days. They represent a truly audacious attempt to make the following four points…   a) All this is nothing to do with Brown’s leadership crisis – it’s just the expenses crisis, which understandably focuses on the government. b) Poor wee Hazel, poor wee Jacqui, they couldn’t cope with the pressure. c) And did I remember to hint that their expenses were a bit suspect? d) Talk about Brown’s

James Forsyth

Downing Street confirms that Brown and John Reid met last night

Nick Robinson has just reported on the BBC that Brown and Reid met last night. Robinson says that he heard that Brown offered Reid the job of Home Secretary but a Brown aide denies that and says they just talked about Celtic football club. I’m sure Brown—fighting for his political life—has nothing better to do than to invite an old enemy over to talk about Celtic. I aslo have a bridge to sell you. PS I should also say there are persistent rumours that there are two more resignations to come tonight.  Update: Robinson is stressing that Reid’s office is saying he is not returning to government.  

Fraser Nelson

How they are trying to discredit Blears

I was sitting next to Lord Mandelson in Simon Mayo’s R5 studio and witnessed a class act. Poor Hazel, he said, she had all that blowback from her dodgy home flipping expenses “found all the world on her doorstep” and was being pursued by the media. Poor love. She wanted to have done with it. She couldn’t carry on, not for a single day more. You musn’t underestimate the effect this has had on the poor fragile wee thing, he says. Full of concern, you see, for her wellbeing. Damian McBride would have been far more brutal, saying “Blears quit because of her OWN GUILT and you know what there

James Forsyth

‘She found it too much’

Peter Mandelson, who is spinning at full speed today, has just given an interview to Jon Sopel in which he has said that he spoke to Blears this morning and that she just found the pressure placed on her because of her expenses too much. Mandelson is playing a dangerous game. Blears doesn’t want to have resigned because of expenses: she was trying to send a political message. If Blears feels she is being smeared as a weak woman who couldn’t cope with the media spotlight, she might feel obliged to hit back. The Telegraph also has a leak from the Cabinet Office that Blears did not pay capital gains

Fraser Nelson

Nothing more from Blears today

Word from chipmunk central is that she’s heading for Salford and won’t say more today. To do so, pre-election, may be seen by Labour as treason. But after polling closes, I suspect, it’s open season.

James Forsyth

That must have hurt Darling

Peter Mandelson has just been on TV stressing what pressure Smith and Blears have been under because of the expenses story and trying to spin that as the sole reason they have resigned. He was then asked about Darling and his response was that Darling was another person who had found himself in the eye of the storm “fairly or unfairly”. It is hard not to read this as a sign that Mandelson is signed onto the plan to move Darling out of the front line. It really does look as if Brown is going to try and place Balls at the Treasury in the reshuffle. But if he does,