Society

Friday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The most likely date for the next election is May 6th, 2010

We know the date of at least one election in 2010: the locals will be on May 6h. There also has to be a general election by Thursday the third of June. It is hard to see how the government could recover from a drubbing in May to win an election in June. It is almost certain that Brown won’t want to go after May 6th. One of the last hopes Labour people cling to is that the return of growth could save them. We can be confident that Brown will want the first quarter growth results out before election day. Given all this it seems most likely that Brown will choose to hold

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Peter Mandelson: A National Treasure?

The other day, Danny Finkelstein asked if Peter Mandelson has “given up”. He was reflecting upon Mandelson’s wistful declaration that his career “has not been as successful as I wished. You have certain goals and I never acheived them. That’s a disappointment for me.” Danny professed himself astonished by this, arguing that by any measure Mandelson has enjoyed a “stellar” career: Not only has he held really dizzyingly high office, but he has been massively influential on two Prime Ministers. He changed the Labour Party profoundly. And in the great political dispute of his life, his antagonist was forced to surrender humiliatingly. How could he possibly be disappointed? Quite easily!

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Petraeus: Next two weeks key to whether the Pakistani government survives

If you want an idea of how worrying the situation in Pakistan is, read this story from James Rosen: ‘Gen. David Petraeus, commander of U.S. Central Command, has told U.S. officials the next two weeks are critical to determining whether the Pakistani government will survive, FOX News has learned. “The Pakistanis have run out of excuses” and are “finally getting serious” about combating the threat from Taliban and Al Qaeda extremists operating out of Northwest Pakistan, the general added. But Petraeus also said wearily that “we’ve heard it all before” from the Pakistanis and he is looking to see concrete action by the government to destroy the Taliban in the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Brown’s biographer says people who don’t treat their staff properly aren’t fit to be Prime Minister

Paul Routledge in today’s Daily Mirror: “David Cameron is no different to Thatcher. He is – and I’m afraid you have to accept my word for this – a crap employer. And anybody who does not treat his staff properly is, to my mind, not fit to employ the nation and run the country.” Charles Moore in this week’s Spectator: “I recently met a man who entered a room containing the Prime Minister and found himself ducking to avoid a mug Mr Brown had hurled not at him, but at an official who was just leaving.”   PS Just to be clear, those who worked for Thatcher generally talk about

James Forsyth James Forsyth

There’s no super-sub for Brown to call on

Martin Kettle reports in The Guardian today that: “There is a lot of talk now about yet another shakeout at No 10. Lord Mandelson is pressing for a senior politician – not necessarily himself – to fill the righthand man role that Chris Patten played for John Major in 1992.” This is understandable given that, as Jackie Ashley wrote yesterday: “Brown seems to have performed the brilliant hat-trick of failing to grasp where his parliamentary party is coming from, failing to recognise what will provoke ridicule in the press and failing to acknowledge the public mood. Much of this comes back to the out-of-touch inner circle on which he has relied

Etan Smallman

The changing face of Britain’s super-rich

So what effect will the 50p tax have on the super-rich? It depends who these people are – and surprisingly little is known about them. One of the most useful sources is the Sunday Times Rich List. One came out last week, and the first issue was in 1989. Unfortunately, it’s not online, but it is stored at the national newspaper archive in Colindale. As it’s the last day of my two-week internship at The Spectator, I went along last night to compare the Rich Lists of 1989 with 2009. This year’s Rich List shows 38 out of Britain’s 100 richest people being immigrants. A healthy percentage – and one that would come

Peter Hoskin

Authority? What authority?

Brown’s dwindling authority has become the issue du jour.  Despite what Downing Street is saying, the matter isn’t even up for question.  After the bizarre YouTube expenses fiasco, and the defeat over Gurkha settlement rights, Brown has pretty much lost any meaningful control over his party.  And, as if to ram the point home, there’s a series of remarkable quotes from “two senior Cabinet ministers” in today’s Telegraph.  One raises the spectre of the Major government: “We can still turn this round, but Gordon is not listening. He is lashing out and reacting to headlines. It’s all so reminiscent of the last months of John Major. If we don’t get

Thursday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What is the Tory position on Trident?

Yesterday, The Times published an interview with William Hague. Here’s how it reported his views on the defence budget and Trident: ‘The MoD budget was “not immune”. But he again pledged his party to upgrading the Trident nuclear deterrent.’ But today at his press conference, David Cameron said: “having the best replacement there is for an independent nuclear deterrent – there are reasons for all of these things. But clearly, when you are reviewing spending, you have to review all spending” It is hard to see how one can square these two positions. It would be instructive to know which line—Hague or Cameron’s—is actually party policy. As I’ve said before, scrapping or delaying the next

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Now for the hard part

Ross Douthat, the new New York Times columnist, has a smart piece up at The Atlantic arguing that the beginning of the Obama presidency has been the easy bit precisely because his inheritance has been so bad. Here’s the nub of his argument: “Barack Obama hit the trifecta. He’s inherited two ongoing military conflicts; he’s responsible for managing a global financial crisis that began on his predecessor’s watch; and he spent last week trying to pick his way through the political-legal minefield created by the Bush Administration’s interrogation policies. As a result, across an eventful three months in office, the events of greatest consequence – the stimulus bill, the strategizing

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Swine Flu Fever

If they can panic in Washington DC, then, for heavens’ sake, we can have some hysteria here too: The first Britons confirmed to have caught swine flu have been discharged from hospital after recovering. This will obviously disappoint the BBC, who’ve been hoping that Swine flu will make up for the great disappointment that was bird flu’s failure to bump us all off. Still, this news, while obviously a setback, won’t be enough to stop them from telling us that we’re all going to die next week. UPDATE: Do you have Swine Flu? Find out here and here.

Toby Young Toby Young

Bicycle accident

I got knocked off my bike on Tuesday night. Ambulance, hospital, general anaesthetic … the whole nine yards. No nerve damage and brain seems to be functioning okay, but hopes of becoming a male supermodel have now been dashed. I was cycling down Holland Park Avenue in West London at around 12.30am, front and rear lights both on, when I saw a car about to pull out of a side street. I slowed down, trying to figure out if he’d seen me. He didn’t move so I assumed he had and was letting me go ahead. I duly cruised past and he pulled out, knocking me off. The first thing

Daniel Korski

Honouring the soldiers

This morning, while most of London rushed to work, a few hundred soldiers stood silently in the scorching sun of the Iraqi desert, as the names of their fallen comrades were read out. All 234 of them; 179 British and 46 allied soldiers. The Reverend Paschal Hanrahan led the prayers and said something which I found profoundly moving. I haven’t been able to find the exact quote, but (from memory) it went something like: “It is to the solder to whom we owe the right to free trial, not the lawyer; it is the soldier, not the journalist, who guarantees the freedom of speech; and it is the soldier, who

Peter Hoskin

Brown’s position looks more and more unstable

Over at Comment Central, the Times pair of Danny Finkelstein and Philip Collins – who, for my money, have written perhaps the two finest comment pieces for a UK newspaper so far this year (Finkelstein on Israel; Collins on Brown’s political positioning) – have published their exchange on whether Brown will go before the next election.  I’d recommend all CoffeeHousers read it. Finkelstein summarises the main reasons why it now makes sense for Labour to topple their leader: “Now I feel differently [from last autumn]. First it is hard to think that any [other potential candidate] would be inferior or do worse politically. Second, the scramble would be undignified but

Peter Hoskin

Viewing suggestions for government

Ben Brogan writes a very useful article in today’s Telegraph, outlining the preparations that the Tories are making for government.  He details some of the meetings between shadow ministers and top civil servants; the advice that Michael Heseltine has given the Cameroons (“don’t bother with special advisers”); and William Hague’s directives for the Foreign Office.  But it’s this passage that jumped out at me: “Alongside the formal talks, there have been seminars, breakfasts and long sessions with former mandarins and ministers who have all brought their expertise to bear. There are even reading and viewing lists, which include Gerald Kaufman’s How to be a Minister and Alastair Campbell’s diaries, as

Daniel Korski

Deputy Sheriff Brown Unveils AfPak strategy

Yesterday Gordon Brown told the House about the UK’s new “AfPak” strategy, laying out what can best be seen as a companion piece to the US strategy unveiled by Barack Obama a few weeks ago. (Notice how the US took six pages to say what the UK needs 32 pages for). Britain will boost troop numbers in the run-up to the presidential elections and spend more money on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border. A lot of money. Between 2009 and 2013, the British development agency will spend £665 million in Pakistan. Over the same period, £510 million will go towards Afghanistan’s development. Despite this, the reaction has been critical.

Peter Hoskin

How bad could this get?

There’s little more to add to this alarming snippet from the Daily Mail, except to say that the publication of MPs’ expense receipts looks set to become the most damaging scandal of Gordon Brown’s premiership: “Three Labour MPs are said to be terrified that the release of their expenses claims will expose them as adulterers and financial cheats. Four ministers are also understood to have warned party whips they might have to resign for abusing the system, when MPs’ receipts are published before the summer recess in July. The three unnamed backbenchers are said to have been placed on ‘suicide watch’ by Labour whips, who fear they might break down

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Why we need a proper debate about the 50p tax rate

As every Hitchhikers fan knows, the answer to life, the universe and everything is 42. The question about the new tax on the super-rich is framed in a similar way. Will it raise £2.4bn as the Treasury claims? Or will it lose about £800m as the IFS model suggests? All of this – the future of Britain’s status as a low tax economy – depends on the gradient of the Laffer curve. And if the debate is had properly, and had now, then we may be able to stop David Cameron making a dreadful mistake. CoffeeHousers will know the idea behind the Laffer curve, but perhaps not the story. In

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Obama and Cricket

It’s true you know, Barack Obama does want to un-make the United States of America. First he takes a quick cricket lesson from Brian Lara, now he’s reading Joseph O’Neill’s (splendid) Netherland – a novel that is, at least in part, about cricket in New York City. Could anything be more un-American? Of course not. Except, of course, cricket has a long and proud history in the United States and, for a while, it seemed as likely that cricket would become the national pastime as baseball. Indeed, the world’s first international cricket match was contested by teams representing the United States and Canada. Personally, I blame the decision to move

Virginia Matthews

University prospects are still a thorny issue

‘If you are sending your child to an independent school because you think this somehow guarantees a place at a top-quality university, then as things stand, you may be taking a bit of a gamble,’ says Vicky Tuck, head of Cheltenham Ladies’ College. ‘If you are sending your child to an independent school because you think this somehow guarantees a place at a top-quality university, then as things stand, you may be taking a bit of a gamble,’ says Vicky Tuck, head of Cheltenham Ladies’ College. ‘Although it is clear that traditionally independent schools have had the upper hand when it comes to getting into Oxbridge, very bright children from

Virginia Matthews

Chalking up the costs

‘Although enquiries about and acceptances of private school places appear to have increased slightly in recent months, we won’t really know if the recession has started to bite until September. ‘Although enquiries about and acceptances of private school places appear to have increased slightly in recent months, we won’t really know if the recession has started to bite until September. Even if parents have already paid perhaps £1,000 for a boarding school place, the downturn may mean that a few lose their jobs between now and then and pupils don’t actually turn up.’ That’s the view of Dick Davison, spokesman for the Headmasters’ and Headmistresses’ Conference (an association of heads