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Society

Friday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The 50p gimmick has done considerable damage to Labour

The 50p rate is designed to cause the Conservatives problems. But it has also damaged Labour. It has reinforced the adage that Labour governments always end up breaking their promises on tax. It has also shown that when the going gets tough, Labour resorts to economically destructive class warfare: the FT and all those financiers who were so keen to bankroll Labour back in the day should remember that. But perhaps the greatest damage has been done by the fact that it has shown the commentariat that Labour is fundamentally unserious in its approach to dealing with the appalling state of the public finances.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The terms of debate have changed

Listening to David Cameron being interviewed on the Today Programme this morning, I was struck by how nearly all the questions came from the right. Cameron was pushed to say that more things would have to be cut, that he would scrap the 50p tax rate and that he would take the opportunity this crisis presents to be radical. These questions are a result of the positions that Cameron has taken but it is still striking that the BBC chose to ask them. There does now seem to be a general appreciation that cuts will have to be made and that the questions should be about where and how big

Peter Hoskin

The dynamics of Tory economic policy

Iain Martin’s Telegraph column contains a noteworthy insight about the whos and whats of Tory economic policy: “David Cameron’s colleagues report that this year the Tory leader has effectively taken over the party’s economic policy. The penny does appear to be dropping, gradually, that if the country is going to pay off any of the debt he decries as an obstacle to recovery, then spending will need to fall steeply.” Of course, you could say that Cameron should be in charge of Tory economic policy anyway, what with him being the party leader and the economy being the defining issue of current British politics.  But this still backs up reports

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Karl Rove Endorses Torture in Just 140 Characters

This is where the Republican party is now. Karl Rove’s latest Tweet is this: Precautions taken 2 guarantee compliance w/ federal prohibition on torture. U might characterize diligence as overcautious. Got that? A – highly questionable! – “compliance” with anti-torture statutes was “over-cautious”. That is, it was mistakes were made in trying to comply with, you know, the law. As I say, these people damn themselves with their own proud confessions. And sometimes they only need 140 characters with which to do it.

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Torture and Porn: Stuff You Know When You See It

Not so long ago the American conservative movement denied that waterboarding and the other “enhanced interrogation techniques” used upon prisoners were anything remotely akin to torture. That line has shifted somewhat in recent days. Now it’s “Well, maybe you think it is torture but – look! – it works!” Does this constitute progress or not? My own view is that torture is one of those things you recognise when you see it. But because we associate it with the rack and with thumbscrews and the oubliette, too many people assume that this is the only form of punishment that constitutes torture. Not so. There’s an obvious and easy question to

Thursday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Labour plunge 7 in YouGov’s post Budget poll

The first voting intention poll since the Budget suggests that the Budget and smear-gate have hurt Labour badly. The poll has the Tories stretching their lead to 18 points with Labour dropping seven to 27 percent. With all the usual caveats, this poll implies a Tory majority of more than 150 seats after the next election—a result that would be utterly devastating for Labour. Those who want the Tories to make Brown’s gimmick of a 50p tax rate for those earning over a £150,000 the defining battle of the next 14 months before the election, should note that 68 percent of people agree with it. The poll also finds that

Peter Hoskin

Pickles responds | 23 April 2009

Here are Eric Pickles’ answers to the questions posed by CoffeeHousers: Hugh How would a Conservative government reform the expenses system? The whole system of expenses is poisoning the trust in politics. I used to think that transparency and auditing was the key, I have now changed my mind. The whole issue needs to be on a proper footing independent of parliament and at a reduced cost. MP’s should not be able to decide the rules or vote on pay and conditions. Nicholas What exactly, if anything, will a Conservative government do to reverse and rectify the increasingly intrusive powers of the state and the erosion by the New Labour

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Brown’s deformed Laffer Curve and other stories

The IFS post-Budget briefing was laden with other fascinating points.  It seemed like half of London was packed into the theatre they hired for the venue, but for those of you who weren’t there here are four other observations: 1. The 50p tax will not raise £2.4bn and may lose money. Crucially, when Darling estimated he’d squeeze £2.4bn from his 50p tax he didn’t factor in the fairly obvious point that the super-rich won’t be spending money that is being taken from them. So “the lower indirect tax revenues could eat up most of the £2.4bn” says Stuart Adam – he reckons about £1.5bn and questions the £2.4bn figure. The

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Significant cuts are hidden away in the Budget

Spending cuts are with us. Yes the truth always is dragged, shame-faced, out of a Labour budget the day after it’s delivered – and this time there was a real corker lurking in the statistical annex. Public spending is finally being cut, and significantly – by around £20 billion a year. Alistair Darling spoke with forked tounge when he said he’d “protect frontline public services while keeping current spending growth in real terms at an average of 0.7 per cent a year.”  This fooled Fleet Street, fooled the Tories, fooled me. But it didn’t fool Gemma Tetlow, a research economist at the IFS whose briefing I’ve just come back from.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Labour’s shifting plates

James Macintyre, who is well sourced with the Mandelson camp, has an interesting piece in this week’s New Statesman on the fight Mandelson thinks Labour should pick with the Tories. The Mandelson view is, apparently, that Labour should make cuts and emphasise that only certain things can be afforded and then challenge the Tories to say they would go further. More intriguing than this latest attempt at creating dividing lines is who reportedly supports such an approach: “In this, Mandelson has allies in James Purnell and Ed Miliband, the Climate Change Secretary, and an enemy in Ed Balls, who argues for precisely such a divide. But the Schools Secretary has

Andrew Haldenby

A Budget diary

On Monday, Reform published its latest report – Back to black – showing that the crisis in the public finances demanded actual spending cuts, in 2010-11. The right cuts would kick start a programme of reform in the big spending areas of health, benefits, education and defence. In the Budget, the Chancellor revealed that the hole in the finance was even deeper – but actually increased public spending this year and next (by £11 billion in total, excluding spending affected by the recession). Higher taxes will be used to shore up the existing structure of services and benefits with all their problems and inefficiencies. Plus ça change, plus c’est la

James Forsyth James Forsyth

More worrying news from Pakistan

I know we are all still picking over the Budget, but this story from today’s New York Times strikes me as phenomenally important: “Pushing deeper into Pakistan, Taliban militants have established effective control of a strategically important district just 70 miles from the capital, Islamabad, officials and residents said Wednesday. The fall of the district, Buner, did not mean that the Taliban could imminently threaten Islamabad. But it was another indication of the gathering strength of the insurgency and it raised new alarm about the ability of the government to fend off an unrelenting Taliban advance toward the heart of Pakistan.” If Pakistan were to fail, then the terrorist threat

Peter Hoskin

The dangerous inheritance

Gary Duncan makes a couple of important points about borrowing in today’s Times: “If, as seems all too likely, Mr Darling’s gamble on growth fails to pay off, then the eventual peak in the Government’s borrowing could leap above £200 billion. Some authoritative forecasters believe it could soar to £230 billion, or a stunning 16 percent of national income. Worse still, even the Treasury’s own numbers suggest that about three quarters of the predicted borrowing peak of 12 percent of national income is not owing to the ‘cyclical’ ups and downs of the economy, but to more permanent, structual factors. Thus, even if strong growth does emerge, borrowing will not

James Forsyth James Forsyth

It is the spending that is the problem

Just to follow up briefly on Matt’s post, this from the end of Hamish McRae’s column today sums things up well: “No government for 30 years has sustained tax receipts above 37 per cent of GDP. Yet we are now proposing that spending rises to 48 per cent of GDP, almost as high as the mid-1970s when the IMF came in. It went to 44 per cent in the early 1990s. The electorate cannot have that level of spending, or anything like it, if it won’t pay more tax. Governments of both parties have failed to make that clear. It is almost as through they have been complicit in the

Lawrence Kay

Alistair Darling and the perfidious prediction 

In anticipation of the Budget, I wrote last week that Alistair Darling would announce an extra £1.5 billion in funding for the Flexible New Deal, the Government’s welfare-to-work programme that is the equivalent of a shiny, new, environmentally friendly car. The scheme is going to use companies to help people on Jobseeker’s Allowance who have been claiming for 12 months or more find work rather than make them keep going to their Jobcentre Plus – i.e. it is set to allow claimants to trade in their old bangers for something much improved. This is good for them, but the recession has wrecked the Government’s financial plan for the scheme.  

Allister Heath

A shameless Budget

It’s official: enterprise, hard work, education, success and aspiration are no longer valued in Britain. Yesterday’s Budget, by far the most irresponsible in recent history, marked the final death of the New Labour project, which was meant to reconcile social democratic policies with a competitive economy. From next year, anybody earning between £100,000 and £112,950 will be hit by a marginal income tax rate of 60 per cent as their personal allowance is wiped away ­ the real rate will hit 61.5 per cent with national insurance. After that, the tax rate will fall back to 40 per cent for a while ­ 41.5 per cent with the new national

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Asking More from Your Friends

There’s a good deal in David Hare’s speech to the Index on Censorship awards* with which I would disagree, but not this bit: “The principal lesson of the new century is the following: that you must condemn censorship, intimidation, bullying, coercion, torture, encroachment on human rights and illegality in your friends with exactly the same rigour you bring to its condemnation in your enemies.” And in fact, one might go further. It is precisely because we expect more from our friends than from our enemies that we must be vigilant in holding them to the standards they profess to believe in themselves. This isn’t a matter of moral equivalence, it’s

Wednesday

Martin Bright

Reserving Judgement

It is so very tempting to storm in after a Budget and make sweeping assessments. Journalists are paid to do just that but they risk being blinded by ideology or government briefings. Fraser has already decided that this was the worst Budget ever. And the front pages suggest that editors are none too happy with Alistair Darling’s “Budget for Jobs”. I think it’s probably too early to say. Remember,most people missed the significance of the removal of the 10 pence tax rate two years ago. This is the first time in four years that I haven’t had to rush into print over the Budget and that is something of a relief. It

The Spectator

Budget 2009

Here’s a selection of the Budget-related posts that have been made on Coffee House today: Coffee House live blogged Alistair Darling’s Budget statement here. Matthew d’Ancona sets out the politics of the 50p tax rate, and wonders whether any politicians will stand up for aspiration. Fraser Nelson reveals what the Treasury told lobby journalists, and sets out the top ten Brownies in the Budget. James Forsyth thinks that the 50p tax rate is a diversionary joke, and highlights the Tory line on tax. Peter Hoskin laments Alistair Darling’s dodgy forecasts, and says that Labour’s debt crisis has become a catastrophe. Lloyd Evans watches David Cameron lay into the Government of