Society

Tuesday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What New Labour would have done yesterday

With The Sun, The Times and The Daily Mail declaring the death of New Labour, it is worth thinking about what a New Labour government PBR would have looked like. For an idea you can look at a PQ that Stephen Byers, someone who has kept and advanced the New Labour faith, asked back in April. Byers wanted to know how much it would cost to lift half a million people, a million and a million half out of income tax altogether. Interestingly, the cost of lifting a million people out of income tax  altogether for one year—by raising the personal allowance by £960—was £11.1 billion. Now, the cost of

Lisa Hilton

Every artist’s favourite conversation topic

Commerce has always deferred conversationally to art.  It’s assumed that painters and writers are fascinating talkers, but from the Mermaid to the Colony room, I think they’ve only ever had one subject: money and their lack of it, or the outrageously unfair amounts of it bestowed on (naturally) less talented peers. The legendary wit of the Algonquin was a myth fabricated to cadge martinis: Dorothy Parker and Scott Fitzgerald weren’t doing anything at the Round Table other than slagging off their agents”. One effect of the credit bore though, is to induce a positive perkiness amongst creative types. At dinner at silkmaker Felix Spicer’s  boho-baroque railway arch last week, a

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The let them eat cake award

Polly Toynbee’s column in The Guardian today contains these jaw-dropping couple of sentences: “Even if unemployment reaches 3 million, that still leaves 90% in secure jobs. Most people will suffer not at all in this recession: on the contrary they will do well as prices fall and the real value of their earnings rises.” Can any Coffee Houser remember any serious commentator dismissing the prospect of mass unemployment so casually before? Hat Tip: Alex Massie

Peter Hoskin

Is Darling backtracking already?

One of the most dangerous elements of yesterday’s Pre-Budget Report for the Government was Alistair Darling’s claim that the economy would start recovering by the third quarter of 2009.  It’s an optimistic prognosis, and gives the Tories an open goal if things aren’t on the up by then.  But has Darling already started backtracking on it, to limit the damage?  I may be reading too much into this, but here’s what he told the Beeb earlier: “I do believe towards the end of next year things will improve.” Now – as James Kirkup usefully points out over at Three Line Whip – the Chancellor’s claim yesterday was effectively that the

Peter Hoskin

Pre-Budget Report: the morning after

Flicking through this morning’s papers, it’s even clearer how much of a flop the Pre-Budget Report was.  Sure, it has some cheerleaders (cf. Polly Toynbee, Will Hutton and Steve Richards).  But the best thing that most of the papers can bring themselves to say about it is that it’s a “gamble” – whilst a few brand it the “The Death of New Labour”.  Gushing praise, this is not. The tone of the newspaper coverage reflects how big an opportunity this is for the Tories.  Osborne performed superbly yesterday, and the public will now be more receptive to what he has to say.  Good thing, then, that’s he’s continued the attack

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Not with a bang but a whimper

Today was meant to be the start of a fiercely contested general election campaign. Last night, the mood in centre-right circles was grim—the feeling was that Brown was about to pull off another Houdini act. But instead today has ended with Labour routed. Tories are striding around Westminster tonight with renewed confidence while Labour MPs look downcast. So comprehensive has been the rout that the news that the 45p rate will raise less than a billion pound just seems like a small detail. The genuine concern in Conservative circles that this tax rise would seem like a plausible way to pay for the borrowing binge has been forgotten. The political

Monday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Could You Go A Chicken Supper, Bobby Sands*?

Exciting fast food wars update: faithful reader MT alerts me to something I should have known myself. Not only is the British embassy in Tehran located on Bobby Sands Street, there is a Bobby Sands burger joint in hip and happening Tehran too. Andrew McKie has also considered the ideological implications – nay, temptations – of the chip shop wars. As he suggests: “Fish supper, chicken supper. A theological and geopolitical minefield. This calls for a book, really.” Quite so. *Explanatory note: During Bobby Sands’ hunger strike fans at Glasgow Rangers and Heart of Midlothian, among, I think, other clubs, would sing, to the tune of “She’s Coming Round the

Matthew Dancona

A thin offering

So what’s left? Bits have been falling off New Labour like body-parts off a leper. Prudence is long gone. Today, as I blogged earlier, we lost the all-important principle that wealth creation is the basis of enhanced social justice. Which leaves the famous statement of ideological eclecticism that defined Tony Blair’s premiership if not his record: What Counts is What Works. And I cannot see how today’s package will work. This was an overwhelmingly political PBR, as one would expect of Gordon Brown: its ideological centrepiece was the fiscal stigmatisation of the well-off and the overt declaration by Alistair Darling that, since these voters had supposedly “done best out of

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Labour fails to get bang for its borrowed buck 

The Tories must have been tempted to roar across the Chamber, that all you got Darling? There was little in the speech that we did not know was coming and the overall effect was underwhelming. Indeed, the only numbers that grabbed one’s attention were the debt figures. Also Darling by announcing that the economy will be growing again by the third-quarter of next year has created a yard-stick against which this PBR can be measured. The opposition will be justified in saying that it has failed by the government’s own criteria if Britain is not out of recession this time next year. To further improve the Tory mood, George Osborne

Peter Hoskin

Will Darling’s gamble pay off?

A good post by Nick Robinson, outlining the gambles that underpin Alistair Darling’s Pre-Budget Report: “What’s more the chancellor’s bet depends on other risky gambles. First, that the British economy will recover as early as the second half of next year. Second, that the government can deliver a major clampdown on spending and huge efficiency savings. Thirdly, that the electorate will support a significant rise in taxes targeted at the wealthy but which will hit those on middle incomes too.” For me, it’s the first of these that represents the biggest – and riskiest – gamble.  The Treasury’s tax receipt and net borrowing figures always tend to be optimisitic.  The

Peter Hoskin

Darling leaves a lot of room for the Tories

Now that’s what I call a damp squib.  There was very little in today’s PBR that wasn’t trailed over the weekend, and most of the new things were – of course – tax rises that Number 10 was hardly ever going to trumpet.  In fact, for all of the pre-report debate over unfunded tax cuts, Brown and Darling have delivered a Budget which represents the worst of all possible worlds – net tax hikes coupled with massive borrowing.  The announced tax increases of around £40 billion were more than double the stimulus package of around £20 billion.  Whilst national debt could well be tipped over £1 trillion. Of course, it should normally be little

Peter Hoskin

Pre-Budget Report live blog

Welcome to Coffee House’s live blog of Alistair Darling’s Pre-Budget Report speech.  Things will kick off at 15:30 and end at around 16:30.  We’ll be following it up with plenty of analysis.  Stay tuned. 15: 35 Brown is grinning away as the Tories barrack Darling for saying that the Americans admit this all started in America, a distortion of the quote–JGF 15: 40 Darling admits that ‘regulation needs to be made more effective’–JGF   15:42: The volumne level rsies as Darling, incredibly, claims that Britain is ‘well-placed’ to handle this crisis–JGF 15:43 Excellent to see Tories very noisy, shouting down Darlings more preposterous claims “living within our means,” “blame it

James Forsyth James Forsyth

After today, Brown is no longer the master of his fate

Brown has revelled in the economic crisis. A Prime Minister who was presumed to be a dead man walking found himself in a position where people had to listen to him. the combination of the severity of the situation and the institutional authority of his office revived him. Since September, Brown has played his cards masterfully. He has forced the Tories onto the back foot and is now in striking distance of them in the polls. But the PBR forces the government to fully lay out its plan for how it plans to get the country out of this mess. After today we won’t be waiting for hints of what

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Tories step around the elephant trap Brown had set for them

The 45p gambit is all about politics not raising revenue. Brown knows jolly well that even on a static calculation it only raises two and a bit billion and in reality will bring in far less. However, Brown is hoping that the move will either lure the Tories into vocal opposition, allowing him to paint them as defenders of the privileged rich, or cause division in their ranks.  (The move, though, does only increase one’s annoyance that the Tories didn’t move to counter-act this by offering their own middle class tax cut over the summer.) Its shameless pre-leaking was also designed to distract attention from the far more significant tax

Helen Thomas

Will the splurge work?

We have become used to dealing in £billions since the onset of the banking crisis. With the economy facing such a dire economic outlook, there is a sense that many more £billions should be thrown at the problem – but the danger is that, in our desperation for a solution, we rush headlong into potentially more destabilising circumstances. The UK is in a particularly tricky situation, with the European Commission expecting our deficit to deteriorate to 6.5% in 2010 (the second highest borrowing forecast among the 27 member states), and the Financial Times reporting a probable rise in public borrowing to £120bn. This causes a problem with regard to credibility:

Peter Hoskin

CoffeeHousers’ Wall, 24 November – 30 November

Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers’ Wall. For those who haven’t come across the Wall before, it’s a post we put up each Monday, on which – provided your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no topic, so there’s no need to stay ‘on topic’ – which means you’ll be able to debate with each other more freely and extensively. There’s also no constraint on the length of what you write – so, in effect, you can become Coffee House bloggers. Anything’s fair game – from political stories in your local

The Spectator

Just in case you missed them… | 24 November 2008

Here are some of the posts made over the weekend on Spectator.co.uk: Fraser Nelson says Gordon Brown is blasting out his false message, and surveys the prospects for Reykjavik on Thames. James Forsyth asks whether Brown’s political positioning on VAT is any good, and outlines the coming Tory attack on Brown. Peter Hoskin reports on a more encouraging opinion poll for the Tories, and suggests how Brown might spin himself as our Value Added Saviour. Daniel Korski outlines the real choices. Melanie Phillips gives her take on Broken Britain. Clive Davis asks whether Gordon Brown is right or wrong. And Americano backs Caroline Kennedy for London.

Peter Hoskin

Playing politics

An effective article by Bruce Anderson in today’s Independent on how Brown’s playing politics with the public finances.  Here’s a key passage: “[Brown] is happy to risk further damage to the economy as long as he can inflict damage on the Tories. The only recovery which interests him is the recovery in his poll ratings. Today’s measures are not economic. They are political. That is why they are based on a wrong diagnosis. In fact, the current ailments are not fiscal; they are monetary. Even before today’s increases, government borrowing was likely to break through the £100 bn barrier, so it would be absurd to claim that fiscal policy is

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Tories mustn’t fall into Brown’s trap

The Tories will be desperately tempted to vigorously oppose the new 45p top rate for those earning more than £175,000. But this is just what Brown wants them to do–as Fraser pointed out this measure has far more to do with politics than raising revenue. Brown is hoping to create a situation in which the perception is that he is trying to save the economy while the Tories are just trying to protect their rich friends. Yes such a narrative is rubbish, but it could be politically potent. Falling that, Brown is trying to provoke a Tory split; hoping that Tory backbenchers will demand that the leadership oppose it at all