Society

Friday

The Skimmer

Britain’s out of touch elite is shocked by reality

Fleet Street seems staggered to hear that half a million under-35s are on incapacity benefit – as publicised by the FT yesterday. Even Xinhua, the Chinese government newswire service, follows up the report (socialism, but certainly not as they know it). The Daily Mail’s leader refers to “shocking new” figures – shocking yes, but hardly new as I pointed out yesterday. These figures have been printed quarterly, for at least a decade. No journalists took note. And today’s count is the lowest since the current data series started in 1999. So our press is not startled because the figure is new. It’s just that no one seems to have noticed

James Forsyth James Forsyth

<strong>On to New Hampshire</strong>

The US  papers are stuffed with analysis of last night’s result. Of the stuff that I’ve seen waiting for my flight to New Hampshire, two pieces are absolute must reads:  David Brooks on two ‘political earthquakes’ in The New York Times and EJ Dionne in The Washington Post on what the caucuses suggest about the shape of this fall’s presidential election. Also do check out Mark Halperin’s typically smart take on what we know now and what we are about to find out.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Is there a way for Hillary to recover from this defeat?

To understand how deep a hole Hillary Clinton is in following Barack Obama’s crushing victory in the Iowa caucuses, think what you would advise her to do. Going negative on Obama would likely rebound on the Clintons: the Democratic primary electorate do not want to see the first serious black contender for the White House kneecapped. They have no policy trump card to play—the argument about the differences between the health plans of the two candidates is too wonky to really resonate. While the electability argument went up in smoke last night as independents flooded into the Democratic caucuses to support Obama. Just to compound Hillary’s difficulties, John Edwards is

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Where now for the Republicans?

After Iowa, the Republican race remains remarkably fluid. Indeed, it is hard to identify anyone as the frontrunner. The result was clearly awful for Mitt Romney but Rudy Giuliani was also embarrassed, he only got 4% support comfortably behind Ron Paul, a candidate who Rudy has derided as a bit of a crank, who is at 10% with 95% of precincts reporting. Giuliani’s poor performance here illustrates just how hard it will be for him with his socially liberal, pro-choice positions and operatic private life to appeal to hard core social conservatives. If Giuliani doesn’t come in the medal positions in New Hampshire, a state where he has competed relatively seriously,

James Forsyth James Forsyth

How Obama triumphed

Last night I headed to a caucus in Johnston, a suburb of Des Moines, and how Obama triumphed there was an extreme example of how he won Iowa. In 2004, 90 people attended the Democratic Caucus in this precinct: this time, 795 turned up. Overall, caucus turnout hit a record high on the Democratic side with more than 225,000 participating compared to 124,000 in 2004 The line of Republicans, independents and first time attendees registering as Democrats so that they could take part was out the door and my non-scientific observations suggested that the vast majority of them caucused for Obama.  He got the support of 316 caucus-goers in the

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Obama is now the most likely Democratic nominee

Barack Obama must now be regarded as the favourite to win the Democratic nomination. He has absolutely thumped Hillary Clinton in Iowa, 38% to 29% with 99% of precincts reporting. Barring an unforeseen event, one has to assume that the momentum from this win will carry him to victory in New Hampshire five days from now. If Hillary finds herself 0 for 2 heading to South Carolina with Obama having proved to black voters that he can win in heavily white states then she is in real trouble. Another bonus for Obama is that the way he won tonight–bringing in independents, disillusioned Republicans and first time voters—bolsters his message that

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Both Republicans and Democrats voted for change

Huckabee’s victory rally was buzzing; his supporters were revelling in having upset the apple cart. The most noticeable feature of Huckabee’s speech was how was how much of what he said could have been said by Obama.  He talked about change and creating an America where people were more proud to be American than Democratic or Republican, all themes that Obama has been emphasising in his campaign. It seems that Huckabee is going to try and expand his support in New Hampshire, which votes on Tuesday and doesn’t have a large evangelical population, by casting himself as the Republican change agent. He didn’t mention President Bush once and declared that

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Is it all over for Romney?

 Mitt Romney has just been humiliated here in Iowa. With only 15% of precincts reporting, the news channels called it for Huckabee. So, Romney despite outspending Huckabee by about 20 to 1, spending far more time in Iowa than any other candidate and re-branding himself politically has still being handily beaten—with 72% of the results in Huckabee is up 34-25.   It is very hard to see how Romney now holds off a surging McCain in New Hampshire and if he loses both early states it is all over for Romney. 

Thursday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Who will drop out after tonight?

As we wait for the caucuses to get under way, the press are wondering who will leave the field after tonight’s results. This morning, The Politico reported that Senator turned actor Fred Thompson will drop out and endorse John McCain if he doesn’t finish third tonight. (The Thompson campaign has denied the report but Thompson was clear on TV this morning that he won’t stay in for the sake of it.)  On the Democrat side,Chris Dodd, a Senate veteran, has said he’s throwing in the towel if he doesn’t come in fourth.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Obama wheels and deals

One of the many quirks of the Democrat’s Iowa Caucus is that if your candidate gets less than 15% support, you can choose to shift your support to another candidate. The conventional wisdom is that this isn’t good for Hillary who is effectively the incumbent in this race and so Edwards and Obama are expected to pick up the lion’s share of these second preferences. The buzz today is that Obama has reached a deal with New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson so that where Richardson, who polls in the high single digits, that where Richardson has less than 15% support his precinct captains will urge his supporters to back Obama.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What does Hillary do if she loses to Obama?

It looks increasingly like Hillary’s nightmare Iowa scenario is about to become true. So, the question is how does she come back? The brutal truth is that there is no easy solution to her troubles. In recent weeks, she has tried to showcase the softer side of her personality—something that her campaign should have done at the beginning. The problem with this approach is that it isn’t newsworthy and that it is unlikely to be a game-changer. But the alternative—attacking Obama—could be disastrous. Indeed, a lot of Hillary’s current problems stem from a feeling that she was too keen to take down Obama.  Another thing she will have to contend

The Skimmer

Number crunching

The FT’s story about 500,000 youths “too sick to work” should cause shock, but not surprise. The “figures obtained by the FT” can also be obtained by any teenager with an internet connection (for DWP time series, click here). This is a story because the degree of ignorance about the UK welfare state (and those it entraps). The sad fact is that the FT’s story could have been written at any point in the last decade. The Guardian could do a version, trumpeting the fact that the figure has been steadily coming down from 550,000 in 1999. Good to see the recently-appointed Newspaper of the Year is not beneath the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Caucus day

One of the odd things about the Iowa caucuses is that because they do not start until 6:30PM there are no early indications on turnout or anything else. But we can read the tea-leaves.  Judging from the mood of the various campaigns, it is the Obama and Huckabee campaigns who are most confident. Obama and Huckabee are the candidates who are up in this morning’s tracking poll and any Iowan deciding who to support based on this morning’s press coverage in the local press would probably shift their way. The weather is cold but crucially there’s been no fresh fall of snow so the weather is unlikely to deter many

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Is the force with Obama?

The difference in enthusiasm and size of crowds between the Barack Obama and Mitt Romney rallies was stark.  Obama was clearly exhausted at his eve of caucus rally in Des Moines, is voice was hoarse and many of his best lines were barely audible but still his crowd was far larger and more enthusiastic than Romney’s. Those who have been covering the campaign out here for months say that the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats in a state that George W. Bush carried in 2004 is remarkable. Even the non-front-running Democrats regularly draw bigger crowds than the leading Republicans.  Obama’s delivery tonight was not exceptional but the 2,100 crowd

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Romney’s last rally feels flat

Mitt Romney’s final event before the Iowa caucus was surprisingly downbeat affair. The crowd was not huge—about 625 to 650 people according to the Romney camp—and Romney was in reflective rather than rousing mood peppering his speech with phrases such as “I don’t know what happens to us down the road” and “we’re going to make a real effort.” In short, you didn’t leave the rally thinking that you’d just seen a man who expects to win on Thursday.  Romney’s speech was designed to hit the sweet spots of Iowa Republicans. Romney extolled patriotic values, talked about being “swamped by illegal immigration” and bashed  Washington while paying tribute to George

Wednesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Iowans Have It (Alas)

No more than 10% of Iowans registered as either Republicans or Democrats are likely to turn out for Thursday’s caucuses. So The American Spectator’s Philip Klein is quite right to call foul: DES MOINES — Every four years, politicians and the media swarm this small Midwestern state and shower its voters with attention and compliments, but very few people have the courage to admit the simple truth: Iowans are largely apathetic about politics, and they don’t deserve the disproportionate influence they have in choosing the leader of the free world. If Iowans are to retain their privileged position* at the front end of the Presidential primary and caucus process, would

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Ron Paul phenomenon

Tonight, I’m planning to go and see Mitt Romney and Barack Obama’s big pre-caucus rallies but before that I’m going to pop in on a Ron Paul event.  Paul is running for the Republican nomination as an anti-war, libertarian. He has garnered an unbelievably devoted following and has been raising money hand over fist–$20 million in the last quarter alone which is almost certainly more than any other Republican. Paul won’t win the nomination but there’s a very good chance that he could beat some of the big name candidates both here and in New Hampshire. Disgracefully there are moves afoot to keep him out of one of the TV

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The key to victory in Iowa

Des Moines, Iowa Quite remarkably on the eve of the Iowa caucuses both the Democratic and Republican races are far too close to call. The determining factor on both sides will be turnout.  Obama is hoping to bring independents, disgruntled Republicans and first time caucus goers into the process and if he can succeed in doing this he’ll win: high turnout equates to an Obama victory. Many have questioned the wisdom of this strategy, arguing that expanding the universe of caucus goers is what Howard Dean tried and failed to do. But one very senior Republican told me today that he thinks Obama can pull it off, noting how professional

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Obama makes his pitch

Des Moines, Iowa Barack Obama’s closing video is radically different from Hillary’s talk to camera. Obama’s ad-men have gone for essentially a collection of his greatest hits starting  with that speech to the 2004 Democratic convention which started it all. The message is light on policy and heavy on personality and Obama’s claims to be able to put the partisan divisions of the past behind him. It is very much the ad of a candidate who is relying on the support of independents, disgruntled Republicans and idealists for victory.