All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
As election day nears, the number of polls appearing is rapidly increasing. But it still remains very tight and the movements are generally within the margin of error. But there is one trend emerging from the handful of polls released in the last few days: the Tories are stable on 35 per cent and ahead of
I’m mildly posh – nowhere near David Cameron posh, for example, let alone the Olympian heights of Brian Sewell, but I’m unlikely to ever play a football hooligan or an East End gangster in a Guy Ritchie film. And I’m better spoken than I was as a teenager, when I used to affect a slight Mockney
The Liberal Democrat resilience in countless marginal seats has confounded many commentators. While perhaps winning half the number of votes as Ukip nationwide, it is far from inconceivable that they will win five to ten times the number of seats. Take Sutton & Cheam, for instance, where despite having a majority of just 1,608 votes, Paul Berstow
Tonight’s ‘Question Time’-style TV debates will be followed by what has become probably the most hated aspect of this rather uninspiring general election campaign: the spin room. This spectacle of journalists interviewing journalists as they listen to frontbenchers from all the parties parroting lines about how their leader was the best (or, in the Tory
Ed Miliband wants the youth vote enough to have spent an evening with Russell Brand earlier this week. My generation could decide the election next Thursday, and politicians seem to think there are two ways to win young voters’ hearts: celebrity endorsement and self-interest. The battle for the youth vote has hinged around promising to
Tonight’s Question Time is, probably, the most important TV event of the campaign. The fact that it is on BBC1 in prime time means that it is likely to attract a bigger audience than the previous debates. That it is on the BBC also means that any newsworthy moments will be pumped out across the
Can you sense it? That thrill in the air? The feeling that suddenly the Labour campaign is just somehow more exciting? Yes, that’s right, David Axelrod is back in the country. Try to control yourselves. The Guardian recently revealed that 26 April was the date that The Axe was landing back in the UK. And not a
In today’s election podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I discuss the Liberal Democrats’ efforts to put themselves at the front of the campaign, what to expect from today’s Question Time special with the three main party leaders and the current state of the opinion polls. With one week to go, are we finally witnessing the
After Camilla Long claimed on last Friday’s Have I Got News for You that she had spent more time in South Thanet than Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader failed to see the funny side. In fact such offence was taken by party members that one of his team took the unusual step of calling in Kent
Our last five Spectator debates have sold out, so tomorrow night we’re holding a subscriber-only election briefing. James Forsyth and I will go through the campaign as it looks so far, discuss the latest polling (and how to interpret it), what the campaign chiefs are thinking – and then talk about what lies ahead. Normally, the events are about £40,
With Ed Miliband’s expensive election guru David Axelrod rarely spied at the Labour leader’s side, Miliband has found a new pillar of strength to get him through the campaign. Rarely a day goes by without Miliband being pictured next to a lectern: Apparently his party believes that the lectern helps voters imagine him as Prime Minister. So you can imagine Steerpike’s concern upon seeing a photo of the
Douglas Carswell seems rather excited about the Spectator following him around as he campaigns in Clacton, but it’s not clear whether that’s just because our interview starts in McDonald’s. Tucking into a quarter pounder with cheese, the Ukip candidate seems on good form, expounding at length on the failure of mainstream politicians to connect with
With one week to go, are the Conservatives back on track to being the biggest party? In this week’s View from 22 podcast, Fraser Nelson and James Forsyth discuss the state of the election campaign with one week till polling day and which party has the momentum. Fraser and James have also interviewed Boris Johnson in the magazine this
From ‘The Military Situation’, The Spectator, 1 May 1915: EXCEPT for the terrible death-roll, there is nothing to disquiet us in the second battle of Ypres, the embers of which are glowing as we write. The Germans have once more made a determined attempt to break our line and to reach Dunkirk and Calais, and
If there is any link between economic optimism and politics than David Cameron should easily win the general election next week. Today’s figures show consumer confidence around 30-year highs. The number who think now’s a good time to by a house (above) is surging. Not since 1987 have we had so many saying that the UK’s
Given that Nigel Lawson served as chancellor of the exchequer in Margaret Thatcher’s cabinet, Mr S suspects that the Conservatives will have hoped that they could rely on Lawson for a vote of confidence as polling day approaches. Alas, Lawson says that he has been disappointed by the manner in which the Conservatives have conducted their election campaign. Writing in
Post Blair’s government, Alastair Campbell has billed himself as a pious, ethical commentator on the state of the media and politics. If there’s one thing he can’t stand, it’s the negative campaigning from the Tories, and especially from his old foe Lynton Crosby: ‘Meanwhile lest anyone dare to say the Tories are only fighting a negative
Will there be a Portillo moment on election night with any of the party leaders? Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage are two most likely leaders to lose and Lord Ashcroft has polled Sheffield Hallam and South Thanet to find out how safe the Lib Dem and Ukip leaders are. As the chart above shows, Farage
If some polls are to be believed, Labour won’t exist in Scotland after next week. All suggest it will be a considerably pruned branch of the party. Whatever happens, the campaign Scottish Labour has had to fight since the referendum shows a party coming to terms with the shocking realisation that safe seats cannot stay
I suppose it is asking too much of a writer called Francine Prose that she write prose anyone would want to read. But on the principle you can only track down terrible ideas by wading through terrible writing you have to endure Prose’s prose. She attempted to deploy her prosaic talent to explain why PEN, an
Today’s health election debate on the BBC just now was one of the feistiest we have seen in this campaign. Andy Burnham, Jeremy Hunt and Norman Lamb clashed repeatedly — and passionately — over Mid Staffs and the appropriate role for the private sector in the NHS. Burnham was on hectoring form throughout the debate.
Britain’s airport wars are still ongoing. After the election, the Davies Commission is expected to announce how to expand capacity. The main options are new runway at Heathrow, at Gatwick, or ‘Heathrow Hub’ (extending Heathrow’s runway). Each of them is keen to get their case across to Spectator readers – so much so that they have each
Ed Miliband’s interview with Russell Brand has been released and it’s rather depressing. Not that Miliband messed up — in fact, he is very on message and sticks to Labour’s party lines. It’s simply not very enlightening. Brand comes across as the mad man cornering the boring person in a pub because he thinks he
In today’s election podcast special, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth and I discuss David Cameron’s ‘tax lock’ pledge, Ed Miliband’s promise on tax credits and why his interview with Russell Brand was such a bad idea. We also look at the latest opinion polls which suggest Scottish Labour is set to be wiped out next week, and discuss why there might be some good news
What is the point of government passing a law to stop it doing something when it can just as easily repeal it? If George Osborne were still to find himself Chancellor after the election I can’t see that we would feel any more bound to abide by a law fixing the rates of income tax,
After Tristram Hunt subjected himself to an array of questions from Mumsnet users on Monday, today was Yvette Cooper’s turn in the hot seat. Although the Labour MP had managed to organise the Q&A so as not to clash with her husband’s Ed Balls Day, she could not escape the topic. One user – by the name of ‘rubbishdeskhoover’ – was
Heaven preserve us from our friends for, though they mean well, they know not the damage they do. I have great respect for Danny Finkelstein. The Pride of Pinner is one of the best and sharpest columnists in the land. There is gold in every column he writes. So having said that, I am not
A common technique in gothic horror novels is to avoid describing whatever monster the author is trying to scare readers with. The imagination is even more powerful than the pen, and silence on the details of the beast means those reading will concoct their own personal nightmare as they read on. This was always the
Just when Scottish Labour didn’t think it could get any worse, a new poll suggests they are now facing total wipe out next Thursday. According to Ipsos MORI/STV News, the SNP is now up to 54 per cent of the vote share — up two points since their last poll in January. Punching these numbers
Yesterday David Cameron described Russell Brand as a ‘joke’ after it was revealed that Ed Miliband had paid a late-night visit to the comedian’s home for an interview: ‘Russell Brand is a joke. Ed Miliband meeting him is a joke. This election isn’t funny.’ listen to ‘David Cameron says Russell Brand is a ‘joke’’ on audioBoom Brand
There will be more promises from the party leaders today — plus a comedic twist. David Cameron will pledge a five year ‘tax lock’ that will be enshrined in law, while Ed Miliband will attack the proposed £12 billion welfare cuts and promise to raise working-age tax credits in line with inflation. And then we
From ‘Cabinet Responsibility’, The Spectator, 1 May 1915: The maintenance of Cabinet responsibility, that is, the responsibility of the Cabinet as a whole for the acts of individual Ministers, is of the utmost importance for the welfare of the nation. It is only through such Cabinet responsibility that the country can hope to obtain a
Stanley Cohen, the legendary criminologist and author of Folk Devils and Moral Panics, once commented on ‘the unique dilemma of the moral entrepreneur who has to defend the success of his methods and at the same time contend that the problem is getting worse’. The eager activist cannot afford to solve the problem he is
I write at a difficult time. The balls are in the air, but we know not where they will land. Perhaps, by the time you get to read this, more will be clear. Right now, however, we know only that Ed Miliband has been interviewed by Russell Brand. We do not yet know what he
