Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

The early signs aren’t promising for Brown

It’s down, down, down for the markets – and how.  The Dow Jones closed down by 7.33 percent; Nasdaq down 5.47 percent; and the Nikkei down 9.62 percent.  Whilst the DAX is currently down by 9.25 percent, and our very own FTSE has plummeted by 7.34 percent. What’s more, three-month LIBOR rates – the rates at which

James Forsyth

The Brown Greenspan bond looks very different now

Gordon Brown is very proud of his friendship with Alan Greenspan, he has hailed him as “the world’s greatest economist” and “the most successful” central banker in history. When Greenspan stepped down from his role as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Brown quickly appointed him as an economic advisor to the British government. As Prime

Martti Ahtisaari wins the Nobel Peace Prize

The former President of Finland Martti Ahtisaari was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize earlier today for his “important efforts, on several continents and over more than three decades, to resolve international conflicts.”  He’s worked towards resolving disputes in regions including the Balkans, East Timor, Iraq and Northern Ireland. 

James Forsyth

Brown’s Canute moment

“I’m trying to get the oil price down, and get the fall passed on directly to people at the petrol pumps and then on to gas and electricity bills.” PS I realise that I’m being a bit unfair to King Canute who was actually trying to demonstrate the limits of his powers to his followers.

James Forsyth

Brown won’t be smiling for long

Opinion is divided in Westminster between those who think that with the financial turmoil the political plates have shifted in Brown’s favour and those who believe that any bounce Brown is getting from this crisis will be temporary. I’m firmly in the latter camp and I’d say that Iain Martin has it exactly right in

Why Brown is so happy

There is something unnerving about seeing Gordon Brown smile so much on television. Yesterday he saddled the British public with more debt than any peacetime Prime Minister – taking a massive gamble with money the public haven’t even earned yet. What’s he got to smile about? Well he believes that he has finally moulded the

Clegg adopts the right level of cooperation

The most impressive moment in yesterday’s PMQ’s came courtesy of an unlikely source – Nick Clegg.  The Lib Dem leader generally toed the “we’ll cooperate with the Government” line, but he also stirred in a punchy addendum: that some of the money Brown’s splashing around might be better spent on reducing the tax burden for low-income earners. I happen to agree with him, but

Alex Massie

Financial Crisis: Cui Bono?

Unionists of course. That. at any rate, is Alan Cochrane’s argument in the Telegraph today. With his acknowledged acumen in this field, Mr Salmond has tried to put himself at the very epicentre of this crisis but with every day that passed he has looked more and more like a spear carrier in a major

James Forsyth

Kirsty Wark jumps the shark

If Coffee Housers missed it, I’d thoroughly recommend watching Kirsty Wark’s interview of George Osborne on Newsnight. It could easily be mistaken for a parody of BBC bias. Wark starts off by suggesting that the Tory governments of the 1980s are to blame for the current crisis; even Gordon Brown hasn’t attempted to claim this.

James Forsyth

Panglossian or prescient?

Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Perry Mehrling have a fascinating opinion piece in today’s Washington Post arguing that we are actually all going to be fine and that the coming recession is going to be quite modest—at least in the US. Here’s the nub of their argument: “Uncle Sam (a.k.a. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed

James Forsyth

Banks can’t splash the public’s cash

Lots of people are mocking the Tories for being concerned about bankers’ salaries; Simon Hoggart ribs Cameron for sounding like a Trot at PMQs yesterday. But the Tory position is actually entirely reasonable. As long as these banks were getting by without state aid it was up to them and their shareholders how much they paid

Global turmoil, local dilemmas

As Vince Cable pointed out yesterday, events sure are fast-moving.  The latest is that over 20 councils have cash sunk in troubled Icelandic banks.  And that’s aside from organisations such as Transport for London, which – according to Boris – has £40 million at stake here.  Accordingly, the various heads of these local bodies are

James Forsyth

The debt we’re in

Robert Chote, the director of the IFS, does the invaluable job of totting up in today’s Telegraph just how much debt the country has racked up recently. “In September last year, public sector net debt stood at just under £515 billion or 36.8 per cent of national income. Since then, the nationalisation of Northern Rock

Fraser Nelson

A Swedish-inspired plan

Sweden really does rule. What Mervyn King and Gordon Brown have agreed today is, essentially, the Swedish 1992 bank bailout plan, (NYT write-up here). It was authored by the same conservative government which introduced the voucher school model that the Tories are proposing to replicate. While the UK bailout is comparable to the Paulson plan

Will the Government follow the IMF?

The Tories tried to make political capital out of the International Monetary Fund’s latest growth forecasts in today’s PMQs.  You can see them on page 2 of this pdf.  What’s so significant about them?  Well, they’re pretty gloomy for starters – they put the UK’s economic growth at only 1.0 percent for 2008, and -0.1

Fraser Nelson

Bailout blues

Three thoughts on the bailout… 1) Should the Lloyds-HBOS deal still go ahead? Originally, Brown agreed to waive the competition concerns because HBOS might collapse on its own – but after today’s deal, there’s no danger of that. The bailout gets HBOS out of the very particular pickle it was in. As Robert Peston notes,

Fraser Nelson

PMQs report: Brown gets away with it

It’s unfair to say Brown “won” PMQs because Cameron decided not to play. There was a distinct air of national crisis to PMQs which, of course, helps Gordon Brown. Few amongst us would be so bold as to think the taxpayer will see this £50 billion again, but David Cameron was not going to point

The £50 billion bailout: Brown’s statement

You can watch Brown’s statement on the bailout here.  It’s full of the usual reminders about “global problems” which “started in America”, and platitudes about “fresh and innovative intervention” and “long-term challenges”.  But, to be honest, this is an arena in which Brown thrives.  His dour bank manager shtick lends itself to talk about liquidity, assets and guarantees.  The question now

Will the rescue plan work?

What to make of Brown and Darling’s £50 billion rescue plan for the banks? As with so much during this financial crisis, there’s a distinct air of uncertainty around it. There are potential upsides: it should help restore some degree of confidence in the banking system, help banks lend to each other, and stabilise the markets. But

Alex Massie

The Ottoman Threat

Rod uses the anniversary of the Battle of Lepanto to give Chesterton an airing. Grand stuff. But Mr Dreher also has this to say: Today is the anniversary of the Battle of Lepanto, the 1571 grand naval battle that saved Europe from Ottoman Turkish conquest. The victory — one of the greatest ever in naval

Alex Massie

McCain-Obama 2. This Time It’s Fraudulent

Well, campers, if it’s Wednesday you know it’s Disappointment Time. Yes, John McCain and Barack Obama are “debating” again tonight. This time in an all-holds barred “town hall” format. Can you contain your excitement? Well, for those of you who remain, despite all previous warnings to the contrary, demons for punishment, fret not we’ll be

Alex Massie

They Knew They Were Right

There’s plenty one could say about National Review’s blog The Corner. If nothing else it affords a grim panorama of the decline of the American conservative movement. Decline, at least, in as much as NR is considered the house magazine for mainstream Republicanism. Here, for instance, is Andrew McCarthy on last night’s debate: Now, as

James Forsyth

The politics of the crisis

Westminster is convinced that Gordon Brown is the political beneficiary, at least in the short-term, of the current financial turmoil. Brown looks more energised and confident than he has in a long time, the rebellion within the Labour party has been quashed, and the Tories are in a bind. They have to be supportive of

James Forsyth

Mortgaged futures

Today’s WSJ reports that almost one in six US homeowners now owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth. 16 percent now do so compared to 4 percent in 2006. Among those who purchased their residence in the last five years, the figure rises to 29 percent. One wonders what the equivalent UK

Fraser Nelson

Interest rates set to keep falling

Had six central banks not agreed to cut interest rates by the same amount today –50bp – I suspect the Bank of England would have gone lower. We’re at 4.5% now but we’re probably on a downward track to 3.5% or even 3.25%. Great news if you’re on a variable mortgage anchored to the base rate,

Forgive and forget?

On this morning’s Today Programme Alistair Darling came as close as I reckon he’ll ever come to setting out his stance on guaranteeing bank deposits. He said: “What we do in relation to that will differ from institution to institution…what I will do is in every single case and every single instance…I have been very