All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
The markets have spoken, and they’ve done so with menace. The FTSE 100 closed down 138 points, which, though not a complete disaster, is far from encouraging. You might argue that the multinationals that comprise the FTSE 100 are more affected by the fortunes of international markets and commerce. Whilst that’s true it must be
While both the Conservatives and LibDems support the idea of Swedish schools, a Lib-Con deal could kill the agenda stone dead. David Laws is proposing to allow local authorities to have the power to veto new schools – which would, in effect, mean no rollout. As we all know, this could strangle the Gove school
Here is what Spectator.co.uk made of the election Peter Hoskin wrote a comprehensive live-blog of the night’s events. Fraser Nelson hears rumours of coming Tory war. James Forsyth argues that the Tories were right to put the ball in Clegg’s court. Peter Hoskin records three statesmanlike performances and the odd sales pitch from Nick Clegg,
Tories are supposed to be pragmatists. That’s why they’re the traditional party of coalition in this country. On that front, it is interesting to see that John Major is suggesting that, to advance the cause of stability, Cameron should offer Clegg a number of cabinet seats. This seems sensible and, happily, would also improve the
Whither Scotland? Well, apart from Labour regaining the two seats it lost in by-elections not a single seat changed hands north of the border. Indeed there was a swing to Labour and I suspect that Brown and Jim Murphy won votes when they warned that a vote for anyone else was a de facto vote
Woah, I didn’t think Cameron would go that far. In his statement just now, the Tory leader started off by talking about minority government, as one might expect. But he soon skipped past that, and onto what sounded like a more formal coalition with the Lib Dems. He called it the Tories’ “Big Comprehensive Offer”.
OK, so the exit poll wasn’t bonkers after all. And Cleggmania evaporated like so many other summer romances. But it’s the Lib Dems, in many ways, not Labour who have cost Cameron his majority. Of the top fifteen Lib Dem held targets, the Tories seem to have won just five. Doubtless the Lib Dems were
Gordon Brown’s statement outside Number 10 just now was a strange mix of statesmanship and salesmanship. He began by trying to sound as reasonable as possible: claiming that he “understands” why Nick Clegg would like to meet with David Cameron first, and adding that he would happliy wait for them to finish their negotiations. He
There are rumours that Tory grandees are gathering to confront Cameron over his lacklustre campaign. The prospect of electoral reform, or another election amid autumnal austerity, has many reaching for the panic button in certain Tory circles. Speaking to the BBC, Tim Montgomerie has just added his voice to the criticism of the campaign
Let’s just consider three of today’s events: i) Gordon Brown has led his party to Michael Foot-era levels of support. ii) Peter Mandelson has very publicly knifed his boss on national televsion. And, iii) Nick Clegg has said that the Tories have the “first right” to form a government. Senior Labour figures are suggesting that
So Nick Clegg has finally spoken – and his words will be welcomed by the Tories. In an address outside of the Lib Dem HQ on Cowley St, he reiterated his previous argument that “whichever party gets the most votes and the most seats, without gaining a majority, has the first right to form a
The old political hands in the Labour Party at least knew that they had to talk down their prospects (beyond the usual nonsense about fighting to win). Lord Mandelson was right to fight this election as the underdog because this now looks in some ways like a victory. In fact this is a massive achievement
Will the 1922 Committee of Tory MPs elect an emergency chairman today? If so, the mission would be to warn Cameron off doing any deal with the LibDems. Most Conservatives will wake up today judging the Cameron campaign to have failed. In the view of many, he will have failed to honour his “change to
Labour’s victory in Erith and Thamesmead has just made a hung parliament mathematically certain. So there you go.
The Tories have come up short and even a deal with the DUP and Sinn Fein continuing not to take their seats would not give them a majority. So, we are now into proper hung parliament territory. So far, we haven’t heard from Cameron since his speech after being re-elected as MP for Witney. But
Peter Mandelson has just tossed a firecracker in to the arena. Asked on the Beeb whether Labour might get rid of Brown to accommodate the Lib Dems, he replied: “There will be a number of permutations … I’m not ruling anything in, or anything out.” So, in other words: yes.
Let’s rewind to 10pm yesterday evening, when the exit poll was released. Most politicos – myself included – were incredulous. We could just about believe that there might be a hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party, but a reduced number of Lib Dem seats? After Cleggmania and all those recent opinion polls?
Well, 26 minutes in to the BBC broadcast and, unsurprisingly, no-one has learnt anything useful. I don’t believe this exit poll that would, apparently, leave the Lib Dems with fewer seats is at all accurate. In fact I’d say it is bonkers. The fact that the broadcasters won’t give us percentages is itself absurd and
0843, JGF: The result in Hampstead and Kilburn is remarkable. The local Lib Dems were convinced that they would win. But Glenda Jackson survives by 42 votes with the Tories in second. 0639, PH: A dejected sounding speech from Nick Clegg. 0638, PH: Clegg says “this has been a disappointing night for the Lib Dems
Just under two hours to go until polls close, and Tory types around Westminster seem fairly confident that they can snatch a majority. Their argument remains the same: that a combination of their party’s concentrated firepower in the marginals and their motivated voting base will swing it for them. And their demeanour is slightly more
Cameron’s best moment: the sunshine of the final TV debate David Cameron has had a peculiar campaign. For the most part, the big set-piece occasions haven’t quite caught fire, while many of the Tory leader’s successes have been the relatively low-key and impromptu successes of the campaign trail. Having said that, it was the biggest
I have just been looking at the last wave of polling done for Euro RSCG, who have done much of the advertising for the Tories. The polling, done by one of the big polling firms, was carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday. It shows that 49% of those surveyed expect Cameron to be Prime Minister
Clegg’s best moment: the first TV debate No one could have predicted that 90 minutes of television would have such an impact. But this election has been dominated by the strange re-birth of Liberalism, engendered by Nick Clegg’s performance in the first TV debate. Television is a medium determined by empathy. Clegg embodied the frustration
As we wait for the polls to close, and the final countdown to begin, we at Coffee House thought it would be a good opportunity to look back on the campaign as a whole. And, so, here’s the first in a series of three posts identifying the best and worst moments for the main party
The conspiracy theory of history is rarely right; the bungle theory is rarely wrong. So it was at the 1970 British general election. I bungled. The polls gave Labour a 3 percent lead; instead the Tories won. Historians disagree on why this was so. Some blame the margin of error in opinion polls. Others say
David and Samantha Cameron leaving the polling station in Spelsbury Gordon and Sarah Brown arrive to vote in North Queensferry Nick and Miriam Clegg vote in Sheffield
Why is predicting this election so difficult? Because voters themselves don’t know what to do. Before each of the last seven elections, Ipsos/Mori ask voters if they might change their minds. In 1983 and 1987, about one in seven said yes. This time, almost half of the British electorate may change their minds. This explains
I have been deeply disappointed by Tory negative campaigning in the past few days. The Cameroon coup was inspired, in part, by Tony Blair, so to decry 13 years of New Labour is deeply hypocritical. The message, pioneered by Oliver Letwin, was that praise would be given where it was due. Britain has become a
Guido reports that a two-seater aeroplane carrying UKIP’s Nigel Farage was circling in the air before crashing near Buckingham. Farage is understood to have walked away from the accident with only minor injuries and is now on his way to hospital. More details to follow. UPDATE: Reports are inconclusive, but it seems that Mr Farage
Now’s the time, dear CoffeeHouser. After nearly three years in Number Ten, Gordon Brown is finally subjecting himself to the wishes of the British public. And, signs are, he won’t like what they’ve got to say. Putting the strong possibility of a hung parliament aside, last night’s opinion polls had Labour on or around Michael
There’s been a sad lack of country music in these parts lately. But now that the campaigning is done, it’s time to make amends for that. So here’s a country playlist for the election. Like you know, if country music can’t explain something most likely it ain’t worth explaining… Porter Wagoner and Dolly Parton offer
I have just watched the last images of the election campaign on the Ten O’Clock News on the BBC. David Cameron was surrounded by some seriously off-putting party apparatchiks (why not choose some of the perfectly presentable and normal-looking young people for CCHQ rather than these awful gargoyles?), meanwhile Gordon Brown was struggling to fill
All the polls tonight are in hung parliament territory. But judging from what I’m hearing tonight, it is the Tories who have been cheered by these polls. The first hurdle for Cameron to get over is having the most seats and votes. If they achieve that, then Clegg’s previous statements mean that the Tories would
Is this it? A couple more polls have been released, and – like all the others tonight – they point towards a hung parliament. An ICM poll for the Guardian has the Tories on 36 percent (up three points), Labour on 28 percent (no change), and the Lib Dems on 26 (down 2). And a