All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
Paul Waugh has an excellent post on the difficulties and opportunities that will face Cameron if he falls short of winning a majority. Much of the commentary on this has hitherto focused on the difficulties but Waugh is right to suggest that, actually, a minority Tory ministry could probably pass a good deal of legislation
George Osborne sounds a more confident note than most of his Tory bandmates in interview with the Standard today. On top of the obligatory Ready for Government noises, he rattles off a list of London marginals which are winnable for the Tories, and adds that an overall majority is “within our grasp”. Pretty direct stuff
The electoral map that most of the broadcasters use misses off Northern Ireland entirely. But if the election is as close as people expect, then those 18 seats across the Irish Sea could become vital. The first thing to note is that Sinn Fein remains committed to its policy of not taking its seats
There’s only one question which matters when it comes to Labour’s tactical voting plea: will it work? You can certainly see Brown & Co’s thinking on this. This is the election, after all, where the Lib Dems have become a viable option for a lot more people – so they might act as a speed
Alex Massie has now responded to John O’Sullivan’s post on Coffee House yesterday. You can find his response here and a coda to that post here.
…here are some of the posts made at Spectator.co.uk over the weekend. Over at Spectator Live, Gaby Hinsliff argues that sometimes are at their best in a crisis. Fraser Nelson says that Cameron will walk the line, and explains why the Guardian should have backed the Tories. James Forsyth highlights the ‘what if’ that must
At last, the election has thrown up a real character. Manish Sood, Labour PPC for North-West Norfolk, has told the Lynn Newspaper: ‘Immigration has gone up which is creating friction within communities. The country is getting bigger and messier. The role of ministers has gone bureaucratic and the action of ministers has gone downhill –
Labour’s relationship with the Lib Dems gets more like Dallas’s JR and Sue Ellen with each passing day. Contemptuous and contemptible one day to lisping breathless compliments the next. Gordon Brown snarled at Nick Clegg during last week’s debate. Clegg would, Brown argued, leap gaily into bed with the Tories on Friday morning – a
As a coda to this response to John O’Sullivan’s response to this post it really isn’t the case that the Conservatives are doing badly. Not only may Cameron beat Labout by the same margin – in terms of the popular vote – that Mrs Thatcher triumphed by in 1979 (seven points) but his triumph will
We have now seen the party leaders at the same event for the last time before polling day. This afternoon, Cameron, Clegg and Brown took it in turns to address the Citizens UK Assembly, a collection of urban community and faith groups. Citizen UK had a six point manifesto they wanted to test the leaders
My thanks to John O’Sullivan for his response to my post on Friday. A post that was so “well hidden” (as he puts it) that it was the top post for four hours and on my blog’s front-page all weekend. I’m grateful too that he sees fit to remind me that the current electoral set-up
One small piece of cheer for Gordon Brown as he heads towards annihilation is that he no longer has the support of The Guardian. That leaves it slightly easier for others of us to vote Labour. The Guardian has never been a party of the left, but instead one of the metro liberal faux left.
The Telegraph reports that a Conservative minority government would rely on an ‘informal understanding’ with Unionist MPs and that David Cameron is preparing the ground for co-operation. It’s a courageous plan, in the Sir Humphrey sense. Many journalists argue that Cameron has a duty to preserve the Union. Certainly he does, but his overtures to
My apologies for responding so tardily to Alex Massie’s post of Friday, but it was quite well hidden, maybe prudently so. He begins by objecting to my assertion on National Review Online that given the failure and unpopularity of Labour, “the Tories [as the main opposition party] ought to be winning easily and by a
Welcome to the latest CoffeeHousers’ Wall. For those who haven’t come across the Wall before, it’s a post we put up each Monday, on which – providing your writing isn’t libellous, crammed with swearing, or offensive to common decency – you’ll be able to say whatever you like in the comments section. There is no
The parties’ education spokesmen are debating on the Daily Politics shortly and so Ed Balls will be singing his favourite tune, investment versus cuts. In a classic Balls move, he is alleging that the Tories plan to make £6 billion of efficiency savings across government would lead to 14,000 teachers losing their jobs. Balls gets
“Don’t fall for it, Dave!” implores the front cover of this week’s The Spectator – together with a leader (precis here) urging him to form a minority government rather than enter any pact with the LibDems. It looks like he will not disappoint us. The Telegraph today discloses that: ‘Even if he fails to secure
This is, I’m afraid, a real question and one to which the answer would appear to be no. Today’s text comes courtesy of John Rentoul and his colleague at the Independent on Sunday, Jane Merrick. On the matter of voting reform here’s what David Cameron has to say: JM: Is it true you once said
Oh yes, the Tories are broadcasting more Ready For Government noises this morning. There’s an article in the Telegraph suggesting that David Cameron would choose a minority government ahead of coalition with the Lib Dems. And the Guardian reports that a Tory government would set out a bulkload of spendings cuts in the first six
I have had a number of shocked emails from old friends on the left following my previous post here, which many saw as an endorsement of the Liberal Democrats. In fact, I remain one of the great undecided. This weekend I witnessed some good comrades embracing the party of the workers. Nick Cohen devoted his
A telling passage from Nicholas Watt and Patrick Wintour’s campaign report this morning: “Gordon Brown visited 10 London constituencies [yesterday] eventually leaving a pub in Kilburn by a side door after it was besieged by Tory and Lib Dem activists. He is now running a campaign almost exclusively warning of Tory cuts, and claiming that
ICM for The Guardian and YouGov for the Sun tonight both point towards a hung parliament. ICM has the Tories on 33 down three from the last ICM poll, Labour down one to 28 and the Lib Dems up one to 28 and others up four to 12. YouGov puts the Tories on 34, the
Whatever one thinks of his polices, Nick Clegg has played his hand very well in this campaign. Few would have expected Clegg to make as much use of the leaders’ debates as he has. But now the debates are over, Clegg has to find another way of making an impact if his party is to
Yesterday’s attempted car-bombing in Times Square doesn’t really tell us anything beyond that there are sociapaths willing to blow people up, and that sometimes luck – rather than judgement – foils their bloody plans. But, given the Pakistani Taliban’s claim that they were responsible for the attempt, it does serve as a grim reminder of
For the past few years, the Tory task has been to look like a government-in-waiting. Now, with the election only a matter of days away, David Cameron has dialled that process up to eleven. In interviews with the Sunday Times and Andrew Marr today, the Tory leader concentrates firmly on the nuts and bolts of
Gordon Brown knows he is finished. My prediction is that he will not use his constitutional right to hang on if the Tories are the largest party in a hung parliament. OK, the Labour leader might try to stay in No 10 – for a second, maybe a minute, perhaps even an academic quarter, trying
Before the final leaders’ debate, the studio audience was kept entertained by the screening of an episode of Yes Minister. It was an appropriate choice given that an indecisive result will give the mandarins huge power as they advise the parties on how to make a deal and the palace on who to invite to
So, back to the Labour leadership with Patrick Hennessy’s snappy article on the subject for the Sunday Telegraph. The main sweep of Hennessy’s piece is that Brown is likely to step down quickly in the event of defeat; that Harriet Harman could well fill the caretaker leader role; and that certain Dark Forces are moving
We are, in all likelihood, only days away from a full-blown, out-in-the-open Labour leadership contest. In which case, the odds that Ladbrokes have just fired out are worth a passing glance. Underneath the news that the Tories are now odds-on to form a majority government, they’ve got this list: Next permanent Labour leader David Miliband
Two more polls have just come out, YouGov for the Sunday Times and BPIX for the Mail on Sunday. The two polls both point towards a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party and both put the Lib Dems in second. YouGov have Tories 35, Lib Dems 28 and Labour 27 and BPIX
The ComRes poll tonight will also cheer the Tories. It has them with a lead of 10 points. The numbers are Tories 38, Labour 28 and the Lib Dems 25. The Tories are up two and the other two main parties are each down one. On a uniform national swing, this would leave the Tories
Even after the Gillian Duffy incident, tonight’s polls either point to a hung parliament or a gossamer Tory majority. So the prospect of a Con-LibDem alliance, being forged next weekend, remains all too real. In the leading article of this week’s Spectator, we urge Cameron to go it alone with a minority government – rather
An ICM poll of Labour Tory marginals for the News of the World has Cameron getting a majority, albeit one of four. (Although, the write-through saYS that the majority of four assumes that every Unionist MP returned from Ulster will back the Tories which is not a given). These marginals polls are expensive and so
The Sunday Telegraph’s ICM poll has the Tories up three to 36, Labour up one to 29 and the Lib Dems down three to 27. Paddy Hennessy reports that the paper calculates that this would translate to the Tories having 279 seats, Labour 261 and the Lib Dems 78. Nick Clegg has always said that