All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
It is a calculation that should fill all of us with an immense sense of dread: there is now a 72.2 percent chance of a hung parliament. Or so says Michael Saunders, Citigroup’s chief European economist and the one man in the City everybody listens to when it comes to the interaction between parliamentary politics
The new YouGov numbers have the Tories steady on 38 and Labour down one to 32 while the LibDems are on 19. Again, these numbers are within the margin of the error. The biggest impact of these numbers will be to strengthen the Tory view that the Ahscroft affair is a media obsession of little
More on the “exciting” debates between Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg that are, inevitably, going to become the most “important” moments in this year’s election campaign. As I suggested at the Daily Dish, these are problematic for all sorts of reasons, not the least of which is that they won’t be debates at
Frankly, one would be disappointed if this sort of caper weren’t being run in Donegal: A 72-year-old Donegal man who denied running an illegal public bar in his shed, has been acquitted of two charges brought against him by the County Council under planning regulations. Patsy Brogan said the bar, which has become known as
By God, The Guardian is a loathsome newspaper; a local north London morning daily for Stalinist metro libtards, perpetually arrogant, snobbish, self-righteous, humourless, dull, relentlessly middle class, cowardly and cheap. You will all have had your epiphanies long before me, I suspect, reading the smug drivel of la Toynbee and Gary Younge and Monbiot, or
Contrary to what you might think, it is actually quite hard to find someone on benefits who doesn’t want to work. When you ask a claimant whether they would like to, they will invariably say “Yes, I want a job.” At first, this seems like a strange answer: why do we have nearly 6 million
In general terms I’m a fan of more, much more, local democracy. I think it could do much to improve civic life and promote a genuine local politics of real accountability and value. In other words, it can be a liberating force for good. However, it’s also true that one can perhaps take the principle
Brown bunked off PMQs today, claiming a prior luncheon engagement with President Zuma of South Africa. Downing Street blamed the Queen for double-booking the PM. Can that be true? The head of state deprives the Commons of its democratic right to shout ‘Answer the question’ at a block of granite. Perhaps she had their best
The former Labour leader Michael Foot died today, aged 96. A man whose politics I doubt many CoffeeHousers will share, and whose period in charge of the Labour party might not be remembered with much fondness by those who do. But his commitment, integrity and intelligence still stand as a bright, clear example to politicians
If the Tories win power (still a big “if” these days), William Hague will walk into King Charles Street, be greeted by the FCO’s Permanent Secretary Peter Ricketts, meet his new staff and be briefed on the Office he will lead and the foreign challenges Britain faces. There will be plenty on his plate. Calls
Stay tuned for live coverage from 1200. 1201: And here we go. Obviously, with Brown meeting Zuma, it’s the deputies today. Harman starts with condolences for the fallen. 1202: Incidentally, Cameron is being interviewed on TalkSport radio, if you want to listen to that. 1203: First question: why manufacturing has fallen under Labour. Harman says
When Gordon Brown pulled out of PMQs this week because of Jacob Zuma’s state visit there was much chortling that he didn’t much fancy PMQs. But I suspect that Labour is rather glad that William Hague is up today; no Tory politician is more central to the Ashcroft peerage than Hague, and Hague’s appearance at
Given that school choice will only benefit those who cannot afford it at present, who could be against it? The answer is the Socialist Educational Alliance, who have decided to stage a protest at The Spectator’s conference on school liberalisation on Thursday. They have produced a leaflet (see left, and click to enlarge). “Bring your
I assume there is something more to this story than meets the eye, because otherwise it seems to me inexplicable and outrageous. A fireman, on his way to attend an emergency, has been arrested and charged with manslaughter because it is alleged that the sirens on his engine “spooked” a herd of cows which consequently
It’s worth noting Steve Richards’ point
In tonight’s poll, the Tories are down one to 38 and Labour up one to 33. These changes are within the margin of error. But it does seem that whatever momentum the Tories had after Cameron’s speech has stalled. (We shouldn’t forget that it might be that the two point poll was an outlier and that nothing has
Bagehot of the Economist is beginning to have some doubts about the Obama administration: I have hesitated to read drastic slights into the sometimes awkward diplomacy between Barack Obama and Gordon Brown. But this stance on the Falklands cannot be seen any other way. It really is no way for the Americans to treat their most important
Every August we go through the same debate, are A-Levels getting easier? However harsh it may be on those who have just received their results, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that they are. There is a justified suspicion that the bureaucracy’s over-riding aim is to see a larger and larger proportion of students
Should the Tories talk about immigration? This will bring back a lot of bad memories for the modernisers, who believe that this hurt them in 2005. But, as Tim Montgomerie says over at CiF today, the picture has transformed since then. The total number of immigrant workers has risen 25 per cent, to 3.5 million.
The various parties involved in the televised leaders’ debate have finally come to an agreement on how they will work. You can read full details here, courtesy of Sky. But the main points are: i) Topics and locations. The first debate will be hosted by ITV’s Alastair Stewart, in Manchester, and will cover domestic affairs.
Over on Foreign Policy magazine, Andrew J Bacevich and I are going at each other. Topic: the nature of the transatlantic relationship. In the slipstream of US Defence Secretary Robert Gates’ lament about Europeans’ pacifist leanings, Professor Bacevich wrote a delightfully provocative piece arguing the US should leave NATO: “If NATO has a future, it
Roger Ailes redefines realism: I see myself between the Hudson River and the Sierra Madres. I do not see myself at the Beverly Wilshire Hotel or Le Cirque here in New York. Those are people who aspire to different things. They’re the chattering class. They’re the people who think Ahmadinejad wants to have a chat
Some readers don’t think it’s fair or reasonable for people living in rural areas to talk about immigration. Fair enough, though it’s not as though I’ve always lived in the countryside. Anyway, some country dwellers don’t much like immigrants either. Here’s a note from a Dordogne correspondent: I live in the countryside and have pretty
A striking passage from Peter Mandelson’s speech at Mansion House last night: “Starting in the 1980s we allowed the diversity of the British economy – or lack of it – to approach the limits of what was prudent. Sometimes there was an economic fatalism about manufacturing decline and falling British goods exports, rather than seeing
I wrote yesterday that Lord Ashcroft’s statement about his tax status should have drawn a “rather neat line under the issue”. Sure, it’s hardly ideal that someone with such influence in our politics hasn’t been paying UK taxes on much of his wealth (something which could equally be said of Labour donors like Lord Paul
Sir John Holmes, the highest placed Briton at the UN, is leaving his job early. A long-serving Foreign Office mandarin, Sir John’s appointment by UN chief Ban Ki-Moon to be the UN’s Coordinator for Humanitarian Relief originally came as a surprise. The post is responsible for oversight of all emergencies requiring UN humanitarian assistance, and
A persuasive passage (complete with a spiky, ministerial quote – highlighted) from Rachel Sylvester’s column this morning: “There is growing concern among some Shadow Cabinet ministers and strategists about the increasingly aggressive tone Mr Cameron uses against Mr Brown. It is, they believe, no coincidence that the poll gap has narrowed as the Tory leader
Ross Douthat may have found his candidate: Indiana governor Mitch Daniels. “I’ve never seen a president of the United States when I look in the mirror,” Daniels remarked last week, after officially inching the door ajar for 2012. You can’t blame him: At 5’7”, the Indiana governor wouldn’t be the tallest man to occupy the
The YouGov poll out tonight will ease Tory worries. It shows the Tories ahead by seven points, 39 to 32. Ten days ago, the Tories would not have been particularly happy about a seven point advantage. But seven points is much better than the two point lead they had this weekend and adds to the
Ah, the glories of the endless contest between hacks and PR flacks. Pretty mch every journalist will enjoy this, I think. This is a very true: “I will honor the embargo for the rest of my life because I have no intention of writing about it.” [Hat-tip Media Bistro and SA and SM via Twitter.
Yeah, I know: 4,500 words of Brown’s rhetoric is too much for most CoffeeHousers to bear. So I thought I’d read his “speech on crime and anti-social behaviour” on your behalf, and highlight three things which jumped out at me. Here goes: 1. Taking on the Tories over DNA retention. Paul Waugh has already blogged
Just a quick note: Andrew Sullivan is taking a breather for a few days and, as is customary, it takes several people to replace him. I happen to be one of them this week. So while there’ll still, I trust, be plenty happening here, you can also catch up with me over at the Daily
Brilliant New Labour Tactic: the Tories are soft on rapists. Really, that’s what they’re saying. And all because the Conservatives think that innocent* people’s DNA should not be held on a national database. Perhaps Gordon can explain why his ain party north of the border is equally “friendly” to rapists. After all the laws on
We are expecting at least one poll tonight, the YouGov tracker, and I think there will be one other. If these polls show the Tories ahead by six—a level that just last week was seen as rather disappointing—they will add to the sense that the Tories are over the worst of the wobble. Significantly, the