Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Alex Massie

Scotland Will Save England From PR

That’s right. There’s a genial irony here. The very same Scottish MPs whose election helped prevent the Conservatives from winning a majority will be the men – and they are mostly men – who will prevent electoral reform. Those English voters who think it unfair that the great phalanx of Labour MPs returned from these chilly northern climes exercise an undue (in their eyes) influence upon the affairs of state might also pause to reflect that the people who will prevent electoral reform may well be those same Scottish Labour members. Not that this stops the deluded left from dreaming of some grand so-called progressive alliance. They’re all at it

Where are Labour’s manners?

For all the feverish political activity in Westiminster today – and beyond the occasional voting reform protest – there’s a strange, impermeable calm to the situation.  Everything is going on behind closed doors, and everyone is remaining relatively tight-lipped.  Signs are, we may have to wait a couple of days before any light breaks through the fog of discussion and counter-discussion.   One thing, though, is already becoming increasingly clear: 13 years of tribalism haven’t done Labour much good when it comes to cross-party negotiations.  There are, of course, the rumours that Gordon Brown had an – ahem – “unconstructive” meeting with Clegg last night.  But I more have in

Alex Massie

Cameron Should Also Talk to Alex Salmond

Whither Scotland? Well, apart from Labour regaining the two seats it lost in by-elections not a single seat changed hands north of the border. Indeed there was a swing to Labour and I suspect that Brown and Jim Murphy won votes when they warned that a vote for anyone else was a de facto vote for the Conservatives. Such is life and it’s remarkable how these ancient ghosts still retain the ability to spook the populace. So why should Cameron speak to Salmond? Well, because he should be able to get the SNP to at least abstain on a putative Tory budget. Cameron has already said that the Scottish government’s

Alex Massie

The Limits of Cameronism

It stops at the Tweed. Dave was in Glasgow and East Renfreshire yesterday on the Scottish leg of his 36-Hour-Dash-To-Save-the-United-Kingdom but, while symbolically useful, it won’t have done him or his party that much good north of the border. Today’s Scotsman poll puts the Tories on 17% in Scotland. More remarkably, the Scotsman finds that Brown has a +4 approval rating in Scotland while Cameron endures a -2 rating. I can’t help but feel that many of my compatriots are employing a double standard here. As Cameron put it: “Of course it is always frustrating when you are not always getting through.” “I believe in the UK and I will

Alex Massie

Brown and the Union

Ben Brogan accepts Labour’s challenge to judge Gordon on substance not style and, unsurprisingly, finds him wanting. But in his critique he also includes this: On the substance of the constitution, he gerrymandered new bodies that turned on Labour and undermined the union. What on earth is he talking about? What are these bodies, how have they been gerrymandered and how have they undermined the Union? I really have no idea. I assume Brogan is talking about the Scotttish parliament but, as an ex-Glasgow Herald man, he must know a) that Brown did not drive devolution, b) that “gerrymandered” is a very strange word to use about an electoral system

Alex Massie

The Scottish Question

The other day a wise friend, lamenting the “madness” of the people carried away with Cleggmania, fretted that it all amounts to the beginning of the end. For the Union, I mean. These days, you see, it’s Unionists who are forever whistling an old song and always wondering if it’s for the last time. I didn’t, I admit, quite follow his argument but it had something to do with the Liberals in power, the advent of proportional representation leading eventually and inexorably to an English parliament and thus loosening the ties that bind to the point that they may be severed with a single blow of a Damoclean sword. Or

Alex Massie

The Land That Time Forgot

That would be Scotland, of course. Dear old Scotia, meek and mild and quiet as a well-nursed child. There was another YouGov poll released at the weekend and this Scotland on Sunday survey had its own startling findings. To wit: Labour – 40% SNP – 20% Lib Dems – 19% Tories – 16% Others – 5% You read that correctly. After 13 years and the worst fiscal apocalypse in 70 years 40% of my compatriots will still, like so many zombies, endorse the Labour party just as their faither did before them and, god knows, perhaps his faither before him too. True, this poll may slightly under-estimate currrent levels of

Alex Massie

Children of Maggie

I was going to say that Labour have gone negative but, actually, their campaign has, for any number of understandable reasons, been negative all along. Still, that reached a new low (or height) this evening with this advert, broadcast in Scotland only: It’s impressively dishonest on many levels, not least because any decisions taken on Scottish NHS or education funding will be made in Edinburgh, not by any Conservative government in London. True, the block grant could be squeezed but this is true regardless of who is in power in London or who’s running Holyrood. Indeed, one could make an argument that for any number of political and symbolic and

Alex Massie

Stirring Up Exasperation

It’s a strange business this campaigning lark, isn’t it? William Hague was in these parts this morning. I learnt this from his Twitter* feed. He can’t have spent much time in Hawick**, mind you, since he was soon in Edinburgh as part of a day-long tour of nine Scottish constituencies. Tour, of course, vastly overstates matters. Hague is dropping in on constituencies for a few handshakes, a pep talk to local party workers and, if the candidate is lucky, a few photographs for the local papers. A lot of frenetic activity, then, but it’s hard to see how any of it can reasonably be expected to influence voters. William Hague’s

Alex Massie

Is Edinburgh University Scotland’s latest disgrace?

Imagine if Durham University were to decide that for courses heavily over-subscribed with qualified applicants it would reserve a small percentage of places for would-be students hailing from within 50 miles* of the university. Would anyone raise an eyebrow? I doubt it. Yet when Edinburgh University adopts precisely this approach – for some of the humanities and, I suspect, medicine – suddenly there are hysterical cries of “racism” and “xenophobia”. Tom Harris MP** [see update]  says this is “shameful” and goes so far as to label the university “an embarrassment to Scotland”. What piffle. It’s not the university that is obsessing about politics or the border here, it’s the likes

Alex Massie

To Murrayfield…

No blogging here until Monday: it’s Calcutta Cup weekend and I’m off to Edinburgh today for the festivities. It’s an odd feeling this, the notion that England aren’t the obvious and heavy favourites. Two average sides will meet tomorrow and it’s quite possible they will produce the worst match of the championship. How grim that would be depends, naturally, on the actual outcome. It can’t be any worse than the 1988 fixture which was, quite possibly, the worst game of rugby I’ve ever attended. Really, we should have a better anthem than Flower of Scotland. It’s a pretty rotten and, in some senses, sentimental dirge. Just occasionally, however, it aspires

Alex Massie

Stay Classy, Gordon

Brilliant New Labour Tactic: the Tories are soft on rapists. Really, that’s what they’re saying. And all because the Conservatives think that innocent* people’s DNA should not be held on a national database. Perhaps Gordon can explain why his ain party north of the border is equally “friendly” to rapists. After all the laws on DNA retention are different in Scotland and here you’re DNA is removed from the database if you’re not charged or convicted of a crime. That’s something Scottish Labour were happy to maintain when they ran the Wee Parliament in Edinburgh. And rightly so. It’s going to be an edifying campaign isn’t it? *Yes, sometimes some

Alex Massie

Anyone But England?

Happily, I couldn’t find a photo of Steve Nicol’s miss against Uruguay in 1986. Could there be anything dafter, yet still wearisomely predictable, than the news that the polis have warned an Aberdeen shop that dares to sell “Anyone But England” t-shirts* in the run-up to this year’s World Cup finals that said items might be considered “racist”? Quiet times in the Granite City, one trusts, if this is how the constabulary is keeping busy. It’s inevitable that we’l hear much more on this front as the tournament draws nearer (just ask Andy Murray). So, for the record, this blog’s Official England World Cup Position is this: I’d like England

Fraser Nelson

Cameron steps up his game

There’s something about a trip to Scotland that brings out the best in Tories giving speeches, and David Cameron lived up to the occasion the other evening. He reprised his social justice passage – easily the best part of his 2009 conference speech. Listing how Labour has made the rich richer and poor poorer, and how the Tories are the party of Wilberforce etc. Promising a “radical zeal” Conservative party – Amen to that. “Some people will say ‘you can’t do things like that.  You can’t afford to take those risks.’ I say with so little money and so much failure we can’t afford not to.” That’s the spirit.  “Those

Alex Massie

Ask Not For Whom the Bell Tolls, David Mundell…

Bad news for David Mundell. The Tories’ sole MP in Scotland (at the moment!) might think himself the obvious choice to be Scottish Secretary, should David Cameron form a government later this year but the party leader seems much less convinced of poor Mr Mundell’s merits, telling the Herald today: “You will have to wait and see what appointments are made if we win an election but, suffice it to say, David has done an excellent job.” So, Cameron’s looking for an alternative. And reasonably so. Mr Mundell is an inoffensive man and that’s not something you can say about all MPs, but few people, I think, truly think that

Alex Massie

Until 3pm Sunday, Hope Lives!

This is optimism’s optimum moment. Twelve hours from now everything will change. That’s when, alas, France will most probably begin to take control of this afternoon’s encounter with Scotland at Murrayfield. And yet, stubbornly and despite logic that dictates Chris Cusiter’s boys have just a one in four chance of prevailing, hope still flowers. That’s partly because no-one looked very good today. Beat France and all sorts of things suddenly seem possible. Unlikely? For sure, but this is the time for dreaming. Italy were an affront to rugby and a sad one too; Ireland were pretty poor on Saturday and I still think that David Wallace’s best days are behind

Alex Massie

Small Drama at Holyrood; Not Many Bothered

A reader asks for a comment on the Scottish Budget “debate” at Holyrood. Well, I’m always sometimes happy to oblige: It passed. OK: the Tories and the Greens supported the SNP in return for promises to publish details of government expenditure online and set up an independent budgetary review commission (Tory demands) and bung more money to people wanting to insulate thier lofts (the Greens’ sweetie).  But this was a phoney budget and not just because so much depends upon what happens to the block grant handed down from Westminster. Longer-term questions weren’t even addressed, let alone answered. And, ultimately, a budget that dispenses spending but doesn’t raise money isn’t

Alex Massie

Sad Haggis Update

I should have known that the news was too good to be, you know, true. Turns out that all the excitement about the Unted States dropping its disgraceful ban on the importation of proper haggis is somewhat premature. A spokeswoman from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service emails to “clarify” the matter: Recently, several news articles have incorrectly stated that the U.S. will be relaxing or lifting its ban on Scottish haggis  At this time, haggis is still banned in the U.S. The APHIS rule covers all ruminant imports, which includes haggis.  It is currently being reviewed to incorporate the current risk and latest science

Alex Massie

Fair fa’ your honest, sonsie face & Welcome to America

At last, real change we can believe in: the Obama administration is lifting the pernicious ban on haggis that for more than 20 years* has deprived Americans the chance to munch the great chieftain o’ the pudden-race. True, during the long, dark years of prohibition some enterprising American butchers stepped into the breach and made versions of the noble creature that attempted to emulate the real thing. While fine as far as they go such enterprises can only go so far. Trying to make haggis without using sheeps’ lungs is, in the end, an insuperable problem. All heart but not enough pluck, you might say. So here at least Obama

Alex Massie

More Booze-Related Fraud

To return to a subject we considered the other day, it seems there’s no end to the mendacity ministers are prepared to endorse if it furthers their efforts to tell everyone how to lead their lives. The latest ploy is to argue that the fact that the average Scot consumes 12.2 litres of pure alcohl every year demonstrates that politicians should be allowed to fix alcohol prices. This figure amounts, we are told, to 46 bottles of vodka a year. Well that doesn’t sound all that much, does it? That’s a single bottle a week with a dry spell lasting from New Years Day to St Valentines Day. Alternatively, it

Alex Massie

Today Wales! Tomorrow Scotland?

Iain Dale says he has absolutely no idea why the Scottish Tories have failed to make as much headway as their Welsh counterparts. A new opinion poll puts the Conservatives on 32% on Wales, only 3% behind Labour, and a massive 11% up on the last general election. However, in Scotland, the Conservative ratings are only marginally up on 2005, Why is this? Why are Welsh Conservatives so much more successful than their counterparts north of Hadrian’s Wall? We’ve ridden these marches here before, but another trip can’t do any harm. The first and most obvious answer is that the SNP is a much stronger beast than Plaid Cymri for

Alex Massie

What’s the Real Cost of Booze?

A reader asks if I might write something about the “ridiculous assertion that alcohol abuse costs every Scot £900 a year”. Happy to do so! We all know that if a tobacco company sponsors research no-one in the press will ever call any report produced by that research “independent”. Everybody knows that it’s only government-commissioned research that counts as “independent”. And lo, today’s example of this is a report (original PDF linked to here) , paid for by the Scottish government, from “independent experts” at York University claiming that the social and financial costs of booze amount to £900 a year for every Scottish man, woman and child in the

Alex Massie

The Health & Safety Culture Claims Another Victim

Curlers on the Lake of Menteith, Perthshire earlier this week. Photo: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images. See, this is the sort of depressing development that makes one lose faith in modern Britain. Hopes had been hight that, for the first time since 1979, conditions would be right for the Grand Match between 2,000 curlers representing the North and South of Scotland to take place on the Lake of Menteith. (It’s not simply a matter of the ice being thick enough; there musn’t be any snow on the lake either.) And indeed the weather has played its part and in a better, saner world the bonspiel would be going ahead. But that

Alex Massie

Happy New Year!

No blogging today: I’m off to try the delights of a London Hogmanay. Yes, really. Frankly, the longer one has endured what passes for life on this so-called good earth the more one wearies of the boozed-up, back-slapping amateurs who infest hostelries tonight insisting that all’s for the best in this the best of all possible worlds. If ever there’s a night for confounding Panglossians it’s Hogmanay. This is an evening for melancholy, regret, a Russian novel and a bottle of malt. And recrimination. Always recrimination. Another year gone. What’s to celebrate about that? Happily (or not as the case may be) the Reverend I.M Jolly is here to remind

Alex Massie

Christmas Scandal: Bute House Edition

Why do so many people hate politics? Partly because politicians insist upon making everything a matter of wearying, partisan, sillyness. Take this painting for instance. Hardly a masterpiece, not least because the young girl looks as though she knows she’s marching off to doom and that is the consequence of yet another episode of national folly. But, still, it’s just a picture and, in the end, only a Christmas card. But it’s Alex Salmond’s official Christmas card and so, natch, a matter for bickering and seasonal tomfoolery. As the Scotsman, which oddly now seems to consider the Cross of St Andrew a piece of “nationalist iconography” that, presumably, therefore belongs

Fraser Nelson

The odds on independence

Whenever a London bookmaker made odds on Scottish politics, my former colleagues at The Scotsman used to make easy money*. The world of Holyrood, where yours truly served a one year tour of duty, has its own political weather system that it’s hard to understand from a distance – so likelihoods are given very high odds. But today Ladbrokes gives odds that I think are pretty fair: 20-1 on independence before 2015. The SNP’s rout in Glasgow North West a fortnight ago is part of a wider reluctance to separate from England. The financial crisis, and the way that RBS somehow became the new Darien Scheme, has spooked everyone. Salmond

Alex Massie

An Open Letter to Alex Salmond

Dear Alex, Happy St Andrew’s Day! Today you publish your mildly-awaited plans for a referendum on Scottish Independence. Alas, unless the Liberal Democrats can be persuaded to endorse the bill, there’s little prospect of any such referendum actually happening. Such are the traumas of minority government. Of course, you find yourself trapped: if the SNP were stronger, the Unionist parties would refuse the referendum for fear they might lose it, but with the SNP seeming weak, and heading for a tricky Westminster election, they’ve concluded that there’s no point in having the referendum either. Why, they ask, give you the satisfaction? Some of the opposition is certainly personal. This, you

Alex Massie

Caledonian Blues

Ochone, ochone! The plight of the Scottish Tories has been receiving attention again this week. As Pete pointed out, the latest Tartan poll puts the Tories at just 18% north of the Tweed. This means, 12 years on from the 1997 disaster, that, in Iain Martin’s words, “They’re getting absolutely nowhere, slowly.”  True. In 1979, Scottish Conservatives won 22 seats and comprised 6.5% of the UK parliamentary party. It’s fair to say they’ll get nowhere near that next year. But look at this list of some of the seats the Tories won thirty years ago: Aberdeenshire East, Angus South, Argyll, Banff, Galloway, Moray &Nairn, Perth & East Perthshire. Most were

The SNP flees for the hills

Last week, I argued that the Glasgow North East by-election would force the SNP to alter its tactics. The Scottish press are reporting that Salmond will scrap his plans for a straight referendum on independence in favour of a multi-option poll on what further powers Holyrood should assume, short of independence. Such a withdrawal was being mooted before the election but has been accelerated by the scale of the SNP’s defeat and its disintegrating confidence. This concession is seen as the only way the SNP minority government can maintain the co-operation of opposition parties on the issue. Only, according to the Daily Record, they won’t play ball. Opposition parties are

The tactics of political insurgency

That Labour held one of its safest seats is newsworthy either indicates how desperate the party’s predicament is or that it is a very slow news day. Anything other than a Labour win, and a substantial one at that, was unthinkable; even the resolutely fanciful SNP must have acknowledged that privately. However, this by-election raises some interesting points nonetheless. As Alex Massie notes, the gloss has come of the hubristic SNP. Salmond’s Braveheart act about winning 20 seats and seeing Westminster “hanging from a Scottish rope” looked optimistic-to-mad when first performed; now it just looks mad.  Salmond’s tactic of simultaneously posing as ruler and insurgent has backfired: Labour can play

Alex Massie

Lessons from Glasgow North-East

The result hasn’t been officially announced yet but it’s clear that Labour have won a handsome victory in the Glasgow North-East by-election. That’s no surprise. I don’t think the SNP ever really expected to prevail though, of course, they hoped they might be able to repeat the Miracle of Glasgow East. Still, they thought they’d be more competitive than they have been. Then again, this seat has been Labour for 74 years so a loss in Springburn might have done for poor old Gordon Brown. Happily for Labour the party was able to run as an opposition party, protesting against the SNP’s alleged parsimonious attitude towards Glasgow. The (surprising) cancellation

Alex Massie

Referendum Questions: The 1707 Edition

Now that the Conservatives have promised a referendum on any future transfers of power to Brussels and have, in general, become fans of referenda perhaps the party leadership can address the other looming referendum issue: that pertaining to the Act of Union of 1707. Perhaps you can be in favour of a referendum on Lisbon and other EU matters and opposed to a Scottish independence referendum but I confess to finding this combination implausible and unsatisfactory. Furthermore, a referendum is clearly popular: polling suggests that roughly 60% of voters want such a vote and that they want it sooner rather than later. This being so, and in light of recent

Alex Massie

The State We’re In

Deficits aren’t necessarily the end of the world but they’re not your best chum either. This chart, pinched from Burning Our Money, is a handy reminder of where we are and the pickle we’re in. Worse than Spain! Worse than the United States! Worse than Iceland! Worse than Ireland! Gordon Brown FTW. Sure, in the long run we’re all dead. But we don’t have to be dead quite so soon, do we? As always, the Nordics fare very well in this sort of caper. But look too at our friends in New Zealand – a model of how a non-Nordic, English-speaking country can still do pretty well for itself. Yet

Alex Massie

Referendum Delayed: 2012 to be the new 2010?

So, it seems that dreams of a referendum next year have been dashed. 2010, once the Year of the Referendum, will now be plebiscite-free. No referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and no referendum on the Act of Union either. This my be good news for voters but it’s tough on hacks who’ll need to find something else to write about. But, for a moment, let’s consider some of the implications of this. I’ll leave the Lisbon question to one side for now and reiterate my suspicion that Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are helping, not hindering Alex Salmond, by agreeing to delay nay referendum until after the next