All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories
Anyone who’s ever sat through a statement given by Philip Hammond, knows that he’s not quite what you’d call a gifted orator. With his cringeworthy gags, stilted delivery and all the charisma of Milne’s Eeyore, the Chancellor’s budget announcements tend to resemble bad eulogies rather than the unveiling of exciting new policies. But even he might
As Philip Hammond rose to the despatch box to deliver his Spring Statement, the Chancellor must have felt like someone who wanted to talk about the funny noise the radiator was making half-way through extra-time of England’s World Cup semi-final last summer. Everyone’s attention was understandably elsewhere. If he was feeling mischievous he could have
Brexit was always going to dominate this Spring Statement. Philip Hammond even began by saying he’d keep it short to allow the Commons to move on to the ‘no deal’ debate. But the most eye-catching thing Hammond said on Brexit came at the very end. He talked about the need to build consensus across the
Philip Hammond’s squeeze message to MPs trying to work out how to vote on Brexit over the next few days was clear: if they don’t reach a consensus, then there won’t be lots of lovely spending on important domestic policies such as social care. Theresa May has been so busy procrastinating on Brexit that her
I had forgotten, until I checked this week, that Theresa May timed the general election of June 2017 in order to have a mandate for the Brexit negotiations. They began ten days after the nation voted. She conveyed no sense, at the time, of how the election result had changed her situation. In her beginning
The Prime Minister’s Questions before an economic statement is usually rather pointless, with both party leaders going through the motions. But this isn’t a usual week, and so Jeremy Corbyn had genuinely important questions to ask Theresa May, and the answers mattered far more than anything Philip Hammond will say shortly. Naturally, Corbyn didn’t exactly
What strange knots some tie themselves in over Brexit. The attitude of some of those opposed to Britain leaving the EU is this when it comes to free trade: when conducted with the EU, it is essential for our prosperity. But when conducted with any other country it is a dark threat to our very
If, as Rod Liddle says, Brexit has been killed there is no shortage of suspects. 75 of them, in fact. That’s the number of Conservative MPs who voted against the Government in last night’s second – but not necessarily final – meaningful vote. They wanted Brexit and then, when they were given it, they decided
At the end of last year, Mr Steerpike was somewhat sceptical that it was a good idea to invite an ITV film crew into the whips’ office, as Theresa May headed for a defeat of historic proportions on the first vote on her Brexit deal. When Chief Whip Julian Smith failed to convince the backbencher Philip
Below is the full legal advice of the ‘Star Chamber’ – a group of lawyers assembled by the ERG and the DUP to scrutinise May’s arrangements on the backstop. The members of the Star Chamber are: William Cash, Nigel Dodds (DUP), David Jones, Dominic Raab, Suella Braverman, Michael Tomlinson, Robert Courts, and Martin Howe, QC. They have
Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General, has published his verdict on the EU’s concessions. He reminds us that in his last judgement, the backstop “could not be brought to an end in the absence of a subsequent [UK-EU] agreement. This would remain the case even if parties were still negotiating many years later, and even if
In recent weeks, two big beasts in the European political arena pushed forward their respective ideas for the future of the European Union. France’s president Emmanuel Macron repeated his dream of a big EU. And the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer responded in kind with a vision of an EU that is
The loudest sound this morning is the silence from Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney-General. The test for Theresa May’s discussion with Brussels is whether it means the UK will be caught indefinitely in the backstop. And the person who decides this is Mr Cox. No10 misrepresented the nature of the backstop when it was signed: some
Declaration by Her Majesty’s Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning the Northern Ireland Protocol The United Kingdom reiterates its wish to establish a future partnership that is as close and strong as possible, given the global challenges it shares with the European Union, and underlines its commitment to embark
While the New York Times has a reputation for being the paper of record in the US, the newspaper has a less than stellar record when it comes to its reporting on Brexit and British daily life. In August last year, the paper suggested that until a few years ago Brits were living on a
And that, my lovely friends, is it for Brexit. You kippers and ERGers who think we’ll leave with no deal, are deluded. They will not let it happen. They were never going to let it happen. Brexit has been killed by a Parliament which by a two-to-one majority never wanted it, despite what lip service
Late last night, there was a sense of optimism among ministers that the government’s revised deal might have a chance. But those hopes were crushed this morning by Geoffrey Cox’s blunt legal advice. With Cox declaring that the legal risk was unchanged, the DUP were never going to back the deal and that meant the
A member of the Cabinet uttered just one word to me about this latest humiliating defeat for the Prime Minister about her Brexit deal: “nightmare!”. Let’s put this nightmare into context. In January, the Prime Minister’s painstakingly negotiated Brexit plan was rejected by a record 230 votes, the worst defeat for a government ever. Tonight’s
I profoundly regret the decision that this House has taken tonight. I continue to believe that by far the best outcome is that the UK leaves the EU in an orderly fashion with a deal, and that the deal we have negotiated is the best and indeed the only deal available. Mr Speaker, I would
Theresa May has suffered another thumping defeat on her Brexit deal. This time, she lost by a margin of 149. But she did manage to whittle down the number of Tory rebels significantly. In tonight’s vote, 235 of May’s fellow Conservative MPs backed her Brexit plan. Here is the full list of the Tory rebels
Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement has once again been defeated in the House of Commons, by 391 to 242 votes. Below are the 75 Tory MPs who defied the whip to vote against her deal: Adam Afriyie Lucy Allan Richard Bacon Steve Baker John Baron Guto Bebb Crispin Blunt Peter Bone Suella Braverman Andrew Bridgen Conor
International Women’s Day is the official appointed day on which to celebrate women’s achievements. But actually, I’d argue that the first day of the Cheltenham Festival is as good a day as any to celebrate women in racing; and there are lots of them. Women are making their names in racing, on an equal playing
Theresa May’s revised Brexit deal has been voted down decisively by MPs. The Prime Minister’s Withdrawal Agreement was defeated by 391 to 242 votes, a margin of 149 votes. May had said if her ‘improved’ deal did not pass, there was a risk of ‘no Brexit at all’. But while the number of Tory rebels was
Boris Johnson says he will still vote against Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Here is his verdict on the PM’s revised Withdrawal Agreement: I sincerely hoped that the Government would be able to make the wholly modest changes that this House urged them to make. And that there would be no risk that this country would find
When it comes to Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn is still keeping his options open. But the same can’t be said of his brother. Piers Corbyn has taken a breather from tweeting about climate change to throw his weight behind a no-deal Brexit. The Labour leader’s older sibling wrote: ‘The threat of CrashOut catastrophe is nonsense’. ‘Nodeal
How heavily will Theresa May’s deal be defeated this evening? After the DUP announced that they would not be backing the deal in light of the new concessions, it looks near impossible for it to pass this evening. However, there is still much to play for when it comes to managing the size of the
The DUP has confirmed that it will be voting against Theresa May’s Brexit deal this evening. A party spokesman said that ‘sufficient progress has not been achieved at this time’ and that ‘it is clear that the risks remain that the UK would be unable to lawfully exit the backstop were it to be activated’.
Whether Britain leaves the European Union and the manner of that departure, are the most consequential decisions that British politicians will face for a generation. The choices our leaders and representatives are making this week are as important as any they will make in their careers. And as things stand, with the European Research Group
In a rare interview over the weekend, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told the Mail on Sunday that he would not be pushed into giving dubious legal advice on the backstop. He said he would ‘not change’ his opinion unless he was certain there was ‘no legal risk of us being indefinitely detained in the backstop’; ‘My
It’s here. It’s Brexit day, again. And Channel 4’s Jon Snow and Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney-General, have come to blows on Twitter. Snow tweeted the latest from his ‘lawyer contact’ this morning on what Cox’s verdict is on the Prime Minister’s verdict. It’s safe to say Cox was not impressed: Well, at least that’s cleared that
Those Tory Brexiter MPs who WANT to believe the EU has no desire to trap the UK in the customs union via the Northern Ireland backstop will be reassured by the agreement between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker on a new legal instrument saying the EU must negotiate in good faith to avoid the backstop
In order to turn things around with her Brexit deal, Theresa May needs a domino effect. She needs to somehow get 116 MPs to change their vote from last time and back her deal. If the Prime Minister is to have any chance of passing her deal – or significantly reducing the scale of the
When Theresa May’s Brexit deal last came before the Commons it was voted down by 202 votes to 432 – a historic defeat. A total of 118 Tory MPs rebelled against the Government in the January vote. To avoid a repeat, the Prime Minister needs to persuade those rebels that her deal has changed for
IN ASSOCIATION WITH The “era of austerity is over,” the Chancellor proudly declared in his Autumn Budget on 29th October 2018. In the increasingly labyrinthine world of British politics, a lot has changed since this bold pronouncement: the Government has been defeated on critical legislative votes by margins of historically significant proportions; the Prime Minister