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Those Tory Brexiter MPs who WANT to believe the EU has no desire to trap the UK in the customs union via the Northern Ireland backstop will be reassured by the agreement between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker on a new legal instrument saying the EU must negotiate in good faith to avoid the backstop
In order to turn things around with her Brexit deal, Theresa May needs a domino effect. She needs to somehow get 116 MPs to change their vote from last time and back her deal. If the Prime Minister is to have any chance of passing her deal – or significantly reducing the scale of the
When Theresa May’s Brexit deal last came before the Commons it was voted down by 202 votes to 432 – a historic defeat. A total of 118 Tory MPs rebelled against the Government in the January vote. To avoid a repeat, the Prime Minister needs to persuade those rebels that her deal has changed for
IN ASSOCIATION WITH The “era of austerity is over,” the Chancellor proudly declared in his Autumn Budget on 29th October 2018. In the increasingly labyrinthine world of British politics, a lot has changed since this bold pronouncement: the Government has been defeated on critical legislative votes by margins of historically significant proportions; the Prime Minister
This article is a edited version of Boris Johnson’s speech in parliament today: I myself had sincerely hoped that the government would be able to make the wholly modest changes that this House urged them to make and that there would be no risk that this country would find itself trapped in the backstop, and
There was no triumphalism in Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker’s press conference. Nor was there much detail. May talked about how the joint interpretative instrument meant that the backstop could be challenged and taken to arbitration if the EU was trying to apply ‘the backstop indefinitely’. What May did not mention was how this arbitration
There’s long been a view among senior Brexiteers that the way the EU and UK would agree a deal would be by running the negotiations down to the wire and Brussels offering a last minute concession. This appeared to be the strategy in play on Monday night as Theresa May found herself locked in talks
Of all the possible outcomes on Brexit one stands out as more unpleasant, more outrageous, more guaranteed to provoke mass anger in the country than any other. No, not Britain leaving the EU on 29 March with no deal – however much that would send some into their imaginary bunkers for fear of the sky
When seven Labour MPs formally announced that they were leaving the party to form the Independent Group on 18 February, it didn’t take long for deputy Labour leader Tom Watson to release a video about their departure. In his statement, Watson lamented that his colleagues had decided to leave and suggested that there should be a
There’s increasing chatter in Westminster about a possible Brexit breakthrough. The argument goes that if the Tusk / Juncker letter of the 14th of January was turned into a protocol—which would be legally binding, then there would be grounds for Geoffrey Cox to change his legal advice. Why, because the letter declares that: ‘The European
There are no good options left for Theresa May. Barring a remarkable turnaround (and there is more optimism on the government side than there was this morning), she is not going to get enough on the backstop to satisfy the DUP and so her deal will not pass on Tuesday. Her deal failing will trigger
On Friday we saw Will Self and Mark Francois have a huge stare-off on Politics Live. Monday has arrived, and this time it was the turn of businesswoman Michelle Dewberry, left-wing commentator Paul Mason, and presenter Jo Coburn to clash. The argument began after a short break in the programme, when Coburn suggested that there
Forget Brexit (I dare you!). The game now, in the Tory Party, is positioning for the looming leadership election. Because I can find no one in the Cabinet or on the backbenches who still believes Theresa May will be PM for longer than a few weeks, such is their fury and agony that we’re 18
A Commons defeat for Theresa May’s proposed EU withdrawal agreement this week is priced in. Westminster has shrugged and accepted another Commons drubbing as a given. MPs’ refusal to back the deal is just another fact of life, something mundane and barely worth commenting on; all the action is in considering reactions and responses to
Diane Abbott knows what’s behind the spate of fatal stabbings plaguing the capital. The shadow Home Secretary told an interviewer that video games and hardcore pornography may be a contributing factor because they ‘desensitise’ the young to violence. Abbott opined to The House magazine: ‘You’ve got your smartphone, you can see stuff you could have
When Jess Phillips first entered parliament in 2015, she quickly made the headlines after she told Diane Abbott to ‘f— off’ when they had a disagreement over whether Jeremy Corbyn had appointed enough women to his shadow cabinet. Since then, Phillips is frequently in the news for speaking up on the political issues she cares
Jeremy Hunt – We face risk of ‘losing Brexit’ Andrew Marr was joined by the Foreign Secretary ahead of a critical week for the government. Although the Brexit deadline day has been enshrined in law as the 29th of March, the difficulties in securing a viable withdrawal agreement have prompted calls for the UK government
Your latest challenge was to submit a short story in the style of hard-boiled crime fiction set in the corridors of power. Raymond Chandler cast a long shadow over an entry bristling with stinging one-liners, dames, black humour and grandstanding similes laid on with a trowel. The mean streets of Westminster were the most popular
I read Paul Collier’s article in your 23 February issue, which has just reached me in la France profonde, with interest. The principal author of Article 50 was John Kerr, aka Lord Kerr of Kinlochard. I have known John for quite a long time, and enjoyed his company: when I became chancellor in 1983 he
What does the Independent Group actually stand for? We know what they are against: Brexit and anti-Semitism. But so far the fledgling group has been somewhat shy about coming up with policies. With TIG MPs this week reportedly entering talks with the Electoral Commission about become a political party, they had better get a move on.
I am never sure what I think about tax havens. On the one hand, there is something terribly depressing about places whose raison d’être is tax avoidance. On the other, what the EU calls ‘unfair tax competition’ is better described simply as ‘tax competition’. It would be a very bad thing if powerful nations could
The departure of Jonathan Dimbleby from Any Questions? is sad for me. I first listened to the programme when the chairman was Freddie Grisewood, and first appeared on it under the over-emollient David Jacobs. Then I served under the likeable but somehow underpowered John Timpson. Since 1987, I have appeared under Jonathan. He is the master of
It would take a heart of stone – and occasionally I possess just such an organ – not to feel sympathy for Shamima Begum after she lost a third baby, her son Jarrah, barely three weeks old, in a Syrian refugee camp. But should we feel guilt as well as compassion for leaving the child
The government’s efforts to get changes to the backstop have run into a brick wall in Brussels. The EU thinks, with justification, that MPs won’t allow no deal and so feels under no pressure to make significant concessions. As I write in The Sun this morning, one minister fully briefed on the negotiations says ‘we’re
How unsophisticated can Theresa May get in her efforts to persuade MPs to back her crumbling Brexit deal? Earlier this week we had her £1.6 billion bribe for “left behind” constituencies of Labour MPs who might just be tempted to back her deal. Yesterday, in Grimsby, she turned to her own backbenchers, telling them: “Reject
A kind billionaire called Jeremy Hosking, whom I do not know personally, has invited us to join the Britannia Express, a steam train, on 30 March, the day after Brexit. The train will traverse Wales and England, starting at Swansea and ending in Sunderland. In an unspoken rebuke to the metropolis, it will not travel via
Theresa May was only ever going to win approval for her Brexit deal by persuading MPs that it was the least worst option. Remain-supporting MPs, she hoped, would come to believe that her deal was the only way of preventing no deal. At the same time, she hoped that Tories worried about ‘no Brexit’ would
An estimated 600 children were withdrawn for the day from a primary school in Birmingham last week. A rather disturbing video has since been circulating on social media, showing scores of Muslim parents with their young children in Birmingham, shouting “shame, shame, shame”. What has caused such a reaction? Parkfield, a primary school in Saltley, teaches a programme called
Happy International Women’s Day! Newspapers are laden with pictures of women, Twitter is alive with anecdotes about the fairer sex and corporates feign interest in the hope of gaining some positive coverage. Meanwhile, politicians are busy giving bland statements about the importance of “women’s equality”. And the rest of us? We’ve barely even noticed. For most women
The Tories have a problem with anti-Muslim prejudice. There is a pathology there. It’s not hard to see. And it runs from the vulgarised dog whistle stuff, like Conservative councillors and activists who feel comfortable sharing crude Islamophobic content, right up to the CCHQ campaign tactics which led to Zac Goldsmith’s ill-thought through targeting of Sadiq Khan’s links
I have been travelling in the Middle East for the last few weeks and slightly regret returning to the maelstrom of ancient animosities and unbridgeable sectarianism that is modern Britain. But in my absence I see that one of the worst tropes of our time has been stalking unhindered across the land. That is, of
After weeks of speculation, Michel Barnier has finally revealed the concession Brussels is willing to grant Theresa May on the backstop. The only problem is one could argue it’s not actually a concession. Instead, it’s the Northern Ireland-only backstop the UK negotiating team previously vetoed. This afternoon the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator told ambassadors the EU
Theresa May is in Grimsby today putting in a last ditch effort to convince MPs to back her deal when it returns to the House of Commons on Tuesday. The view in both Downing Street and the Cabinet is that as things stand it will be rejected for a second time. With no concession on
At her speech in Grimsby this afternoon Theresa May made an attempt to get her colleagues in parliament to coalesce around her Brexit deal, by warning them about the dangers of Brexit being cancelled. It seems though that she may have alienated at least some of the audience today, when she took questions from the