‘You are not alone’: A message to the Jewish people

I’m not Jewish myself, but most of my best friends are Jews. The reason I mention this is that, all my adult life, I’ve been surrounded by, or chosen to be surrounded by, Jews. And why should that be? In my secular moments, I’d say it’s been luck or good fortune. In my more religious moments, I’d say it’s a signal of God’s grace, of the wild grace of God. Because for me, these friendships and what I’ve learned from them, have been among the greatest blessings of my life. I’ve known Ashkenazi Jews and Sephardic Jews. I’ve known secular Jews, Orthodox Jews, ultra-orthodox Jews, Chabadnik Jews and even some Reform Jews.

All of these differences are of great importance to many of you, and to all of the people who argue them. But they mattered not one jot to the terrorists who broke into Israel on Saturday. They didn’t care whether they were killing secular Jews or religious Jews. Voters for Likud or voters for Yesh Atid. They didn’t care what the views were of the people they were killing, whether they were for or against recent judicial reforms in Israel, whether they were one of the few people who believed they don’t know how to run the country, or whether they were one of the eight million people who believe they do know how to run the country. All that the terrorists cared about was that their victims were Jews. That was it. They had to be Jews.

I once asked Jonathan Sacks in private what he thought it meant to be a Jew, and he replied, quite characteristically, by quoting someone else. Specifically, he quoted his friend, the late great philosopher Isaiah Berlin. He said: ‘Douglas, Isaiah once answered this question when he was asked by saying, to be a Jew is to have a sense of history’. And I looked at Jonathan, I knew there was something more. He tilted his head and I said: ‘What do you think?’ He said, ‘I think Isaiah was almost right’. And I said, ‘So what’s your answer’? He said: ‘To be a Jew is to have a sense of memory.’ 

Now, memory can be a burden for some people, an almost impossible burden. But it’s also a blessing, because you as a people, you as individuals know what went before. You know that the Jewish people have been here many times before, in many worse situations, and too many times to count. One of my favorite writers, Stefan Zweig, in one of his last letters to Joseph Roth, who was soon to die himself in Paris, said from England: ‘Every morning I thank the Lord that I am free and in England. But I have an appetite for distant places again, and the desire to see the world in the round once more before it burns.’ 

Much as I adored Zweig, it seems imperative to me that we do not fall into the despondency or defeatism that Zweig expressed in that letter, however understandable it was, because what we know, what he didn’t know then, what we know now, is that the Jewish people have seen off every single one of their enemies for millennia. They have outlived every single one of the enemies who have wished to destroy them, from Pharaoh to Hitler. And they will see this enemy off as well. And I say that with absolute certainty. 

Now what to do? May I make two suggestions? Firstly, it’s always seemed to me that it is not the right of non-Israelis to tell the Israelis what to do. It is up to them to do what they need to do. In my view, all that people in the diaspora and their supporters can say is that they have our love, our support and our solidarity in the weeks and months ahead. Whatever we can do to support them, we must do. 

But a second point, if I may. What we can do here in Britain is to keep our own house in order, and our own house in Britain is in disarray. It is not acceptable. It should not be acceptable that the Jewish community among all of the communities of this country, in this diverse country, should be the one community expected to accept with equanimity those who cheer on the murder of Jews and those who support the murder of Jews. It is not acceptable that the Jewish community should be the only community in this land that is expected to put up with murder and then being scorned for their fellow Jews being murdered. No other community would accept this. And I beg you not to accept it either. I beg you not to accept it. 

I came back to London the other night, and I heard the residue of the people outside the Israeli embassy. These people were not protesting against Israeli countermeasures. They hadn’t even had any countermeasures. They were protesting because Jews by the hundreds had been slaughtered in Israel, and they wanted to wound us more. Well, they might try.

But we should not accept that with equanimity. I’ve written in The Spectator a demand on the Prime Minister and the Home Secretary that supporters of Hamas in the UK must be treated in the same way as supporters of Isis were. Some people thought that the claim that Hamas was Isis was a rhetorical claim. We know since Saturday, if we didn’t know before, it is not rhetoric: it is real. If you stand in Britain with a Hamas flag, you should not be allowed to be free in Britain. You should be arrested. Have your citizenship withdrawn. Your passport withdrawn. You should be deported. You should be sent to Gaza and try your luck there. But you should not be given the right to insult and to taunt Jews after the death of Jews. It’s intolerable, and we should not tolerate it.

Let me say one more thing, and it’s the main thing I wanted to say to you tonight: that you’re not alone. That you’re not alone. The saddest thing I’ve heard in recent days have been the number of Jewish friends of mine who said, in Israel and outside of Israel, ‘It’s always like this, we’re always alone’. And I just wanted to say that isn’t the case. You know, you have, among other things, a Democrat president of the United States who so far has been so fully behind the Jewish state. It is very hard to see what better statement he could give. We have a Conservative prime minister here in the UK, Rishi Sunak, who has been utterly supportive of the Israeli state to date.

The whole civilised world is behind the Jewish state today. Now that may change. As my friend Bari Weiss wrote on Saturday, we will have to be very careful in the weeks and months ahead to remember Saturday and to keep it in mind. The BBC and others who can’t even define a terrorist are already past this. The slaughter that’s only still now being uncovered is currently somewhere down the line of stories. It’s already falling away, and yet we mustn’t allow it to fall away. The dead are not even buried.

 So I wanted to say that it is not the case that the Jewish community of this country is alone. You are not. There are many millions of people, civilised people in this country and across the world who are with you as well.

I speak for myself when I quote, if I may, in closing, one of my favourite lines in Scripture from the book of Ruth. You all know it. ‘Whither thou goest, I will go. And where thou lodgest, I will lodge. Thy people shall be my people and thy God my God.’ And I tell you this with utter certainty. If they keep coming for the Jews, they keep coming for you: I’ll tell you this. They may come for the Zionists. Very well. I am a Zionist. They may keep coming for the Israelis. Very well. I’m an Israeli. They may come continuously for the Jews. Very well. I’m a Jew. Am Yisrael Chai.

This is an edited transcript of a speech Douglas gave at an event on Jewish leadership in London.

Horror in Arras: France comes under attack again

Emmanuel Macron’s appeal for France to unite has not been heeded. Barely 12 hours after the president made his address on primetime television, a 20-year-old of Chechen origin stabbed a teacher to death and wounded two others in a high school in the northern city of Arras.  

The assailant, now in custody, is reported to have shouted ‘Allahu Akbar’ during his rampage. Interior minister Gérald Darmanin announced that the knifeman was on an extremist watchlist, a revelation that is politically explosive. Yet again, someone known to be radicalised has been able to commit bloody murder. Just this week, the trial concluded of an accomplice of Larossi Abballa, who in 2016 fatally stabbed a married police couple in their home south of Paris. He, too, should have been under surveillance. 

The motivation for the attack has yet to be revealed. Was it, as Eric Zemmour, leader of the right-wing Reconquest, suggested ‘in response to a call from the founder of Hamas on Friday?’ Or was it a macabre way of marking the third anniversary since an 18-year Islamist of Chechen origin beheaded the schoolteacher Samuel Paty. That murder, in a suburb of Paris, occurred on Friday October 16 2020.

Either way, the latest Islamist outrage to strike France could not have come at a worse time for Macron. As I wrote only this morning, the country is tense after Hamas’s savage attack on Israel, and France’s Jewish population are frightened. Ten thousand police stand guard outside their schools and places of worships, but there are not enough law enforcement personnel to guard all the Republic’s schools.

Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally, offered his condolences to the family and stated on twitter that ‘Everything must be done to eradicate Islamism, its soldiers and its proxies.’ 

To that end, one of the pressing challenges facing Macron’s government is what to do about radicalised people from the Chechen community in France. These extremists are fast gaining a reputation as the most violently fanatical of all the Republic’s ethnic minorities; not only are they responsible for the murder of at least one schoolteacher, but a young Chechen acting for the Islamic State killed one person and wounded four others in a Paris knife attack in 2018. He was also on an extremist watchlist.

France’s intelligence services and police are doing the best job they can, but they are simply overwhelmed by the numbers of extremists at liberty. There are, according to a report in Le Figaro last week, ‘5,273 would-be Islamists roaming the country’.

That figure may have risen in recent days, the situation in Gaza inflaming impressionable and immature minds. In an interview with a newspaper in September, Gérald Darmanin admitted that the intelligence services ‘believe that these people are likely to act or are in contact with others who could act.’

Unaffiliated to any organised Islamist terror group such as Islamic State, Hamas or Al–Qaeda, these extremists belong to what the Islamic extremist expert Gilles Kepel has dubbed the ‘Jihad of Atmosphere’; social media is where they are inculcated, exhorted to act by Islamists in France or overseas. This was the case with the teenager who murdered Samuel Paty.  

On learning of today’s attack Macron rushed to Arras, only 35 miles from his home city of Amiens, where he offered his support to staff and pupils.  

‘France’s Jews Are Afraid’ I wrote this morning; make that all of France is now afraid. Once more the Republic is under attack from Islamic extremists. 

Kate Forbes joins SNP conference boycott

Dear oh dear. The SNP is not a happy place right now. Following yesterday’s spectacular defection from Lisa Cameron, Kate Forbes has today announced she will also be a no-show at SNP conference for the first time since becoming an MSP. Forbes, who narrowly lost hapless Humza earlier this year, plans to shun her party’s Aberdeen shindig and head instead stateside. Forbes says she has ‘longstanding engagements’ in the US, but her timing will raise eyebrows among the SNP establishment. Sunny climates or watching your party implode in the Granite City? Tough choice….

Forbes isn’t likely to be the only SNP politician snubbing Yousaf’s first party conference, senior nationalists tell Steerpike. ‘It is a stage-managed affair and I suspect that the turn out will be pretty much the remaining loyalists,’ one source said. 

The event ‘isn’t really what it used to be,’ admitted Fergus Ewing MSP, announcing that he will not be going to Aberdeen either. Ewing was suspended last month after casting a vote of no confidence in junior minister Lorna Slater and has since criticised the First Minister’s leadership, saying that Yousaf must ‘radically change direction’ before the SNP faces ‘very serious decline’. 

Alex Neil, former SNP health secretary, confirmed to Mr S that he will not be in attendance this year, wryly confessing: ‘I’m just going to watch paint dry at home.’ Angus MacNeil, now an Independent MP after being expelled from the party for a bust-up with former Chief Whip Brendan O’Hara, will also have nothing to do with the conference. And Ash Regan, the third candidate in the SNP’s now infamous leadership contest, is yet to decide whether she will head to Aberdeen. Perhaps Yousaf’s party will now regret suspending a number of their own politicians this year. If nothing else, the SNP will need them for the numbers…

The happy days of SNP unity appear to be well and truly over. Battle lines are being drawn suspect party insiders and Forbes’s conference no-show will serve as the catalyst for greater fragmentation of the party. Some, including Neil, have even suggested Yousaf needs to bring Forbes into the cabinet ‘as the deputy first minister’.

But as they continue fighting like Nats in a sack, one question remains on everyone’s lips: will the blessed Nicola, the woman whose resignation is responsible for the demise of her party, be there? Mr S reached out to the Dear Leader’s representatives on earth but thus far, no response. Shame…

Poland’s history will play a vital role in its election

On 15 October, Poland goes to the polls. The Polish people must choose between two narratives for the country, each inspired by a different era of history. For the ruling Law and Justice party, the Second World War has become a key theme of its parliamentary election campaign. This came about after the question of German reparations was revived by an exhibition on Polish war losses presented in the British parliament last month. Discussing a recent Polish radio poll which revealed that 58 per cent of Poles support war reparations, Arkadiusz Mularczyk, the Polish Secretary of State for Europe maintained that Germany, the aggressor, was ‘given the privilege to choose to which victim states they provide compensation and how much’.

The topic cropped up again a week later following the controversy caused by two standing ovations given to the Waffen-SS ‘Galizien’ veteran Yaroslav Hunka in the Canadian House of Commons. Hunka was invited to attend Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech to the parliament in recognition of his fighting ‘for Ukrainian independence against the Russians’. The incident led to the resignation of the Canadian Speaker of the House, and the opening of an investigation into a possible extradition request by Poland’s Education Minister Przemysław Czarnek.

This interest in the Second World War reflects Law and Justice’s focus on questions of national sovereignty, security, and cultural cohesion ahead of the election, which coincides with a nationwide referendum on illegal immigration. In the opinion of the party, led by prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland under the government of their current main opponent Donald Tusk and his ruling Civic Platform party between 2007 and 2014, was a country under the influence of Germany and Russia. Remembering the war as a period when both of these countries stabbed Poland in the back is no accidental campaign strategy.

Civic Platform looks to the past for campaign inspiration just as much as the governing party does. The party is the largest in an alliance, called the Civic Coalition, going up against Law and Justice at the election. Its chosen period is one of post-communist hopes for Poland’s inclusion in the liberal consensus of the 1990s – a geopolitical and economic order which is no longer a reality for Europe, much less the rest of the world.

The Civic Platform campaign harks back to the Solidarity Union movement of the 1980s and the campaign to join and integrate with the EU in the 2000s. It is led by Tusk, and vocally supported by the formerly disgraced Speaker Radosław Sikorski, of ‘Polish Tapegate’ fame, now back on the campaign trail from semi-retirement in the lecture halls of Harvard. Mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski has emerged as another key figurehead of the party, hosting a series of liberal-leaning youth political discussions dubbed ‘Campus Poland of the Future’ and leading the ‘March of a Million Hearts’ protest in Warsaw to coincide with the Law and Justice party convention in Katowice at the end of last month. 

Law and Justice is seeking to show continuity with pre-1939 Poland, both through its cultural policy and realpolitik. The opening of the new Polish History Museum at the Warsaw Citadel on 29 September underscored the message that Poland’s ruling party can get big, patriotic projects over the line. Despite work on the museum only taking off between 2016 and 2018, the idea was originally floated in 2006 under the previous Law and Justice government led by Jarosław Kaczyński. The excavation and rebuilding of the Saxon Palace, destroyed by the Wehrmacht in 1944 as retaliation for the Warsaw Uprising, is another element of the cultural quest to restore Poland to what the country might have looked like had the Second World War not taken place. 

Law and Justice’s focus on Poland’s historical existential struggles, often demonised by Western commentators as out of touch with the present, is, however, allowing the country to prepare for a key strategic role in the new Cold War and hotter wars to come. A recent Law and Justice campaign video criticised Donald Tusk’s government for a now long-obsolete Polish defence strategy which foresaw troops falling back from Poland’s eastern border to conduct territorial defence from the line of the Vistula river. Such defence-focused campaign messaging and appeals to regional loyalty are sure to resonate with the more conservative-voting eastern half of the country – which would have been left undefended in the event of an attack from Russia under Tusk’s plan.

Law and Justice’s campaign video has been informally cited as one of the reasons behind Tuesday’s controversial resignation of two of Poland’s most senior army generals, Chief of the General Staff Gen Rajmund Andrzejczak and Operational Commander Lt Gen Tomasz Piotrowski, just days before the election. No formal explanation has been given, but the opposition has been quick to hint that the timing wasn’t accidental, stemming from disagreements with government officials over attempts to bring the military into political campaigning.

Morawiecki’s ambition is to equip the country with the largest army in mainland Europe within the next two years. Taking advantage of the strategic opportunities offered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict presents a tangible path to achieving this transformation. Last week, British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps announced that the UK is sending RAF Typhoon fighter jets to Poland as part of an exercise to strengthen defences on Nato’s eastern flank. The move comes amidst concerns from the alliance over potential foreign exploitation of any disruption during Poland’s election period.

In addition to defence, illegal immigration has become a key issue in the campaign. Poland has come under increasing pressure from human traffickers attempting to cross the Belarusian border with the blessings of the Lukashenko and Putin regimes. Against this backdrop, the EU has introduced a poorly-timed pact on migration and asylum, which will require member states to take in quotas of refugees. The European People’s party, which Tusk led until last year, is a strong supporter. Law and Justice, on the other hand, has dubbed it the ‘EU’s enforced migration mechanism’; the Polish government boasts of having initially thwarted it in Brussels in 2018. 

The referendum on immigration that will coincide with the Polish election will include questions on both the future of the Belarusian border wall, and the acceptance of the EU-mandated refugee quota. While separate, the two issues are often conflated in the government’s focus on cultural cohesion.

The Civic Coalition alliance foresees a defence policy closely coordinated with the EU, including participation in the European sky shield initiative, but isn’t clear on what Poland’s role in it should be. It also aims to purchase a ‘significant number of new helicopters’ but has not elaborated on specifics, or explained how this pledge differs from the government’s existing promise to purchase 96 new Apache helicopters alone.

Only six of the 100 campaign pledges put forward by Civic Coalition for their first 100 days in power relate to defence. The opposition seems more interested in spending the next half-decade helping Poland ideologically ‘catch up’ with the West – an approach which risks leaving the country a politically correct limbo mired in parliamentary gridlock over an outdated culture war while an actual guns and steel war rages on its doorstep.

Poland’s location on the borderlands of a Belarusian dictatorship and Russian aggressor state puts it in a unique position to shape the fate of Europe. Looking to the future, with this election, the Polish people face a decision between being leaders or followers on a continent at war. 

The world has moved on from the politics of liberal consensus to a realpolitik of hard-power strategic advantage. Russia and China already know this – and Europe needs to catch up, or risk being left behind. Law and Justice understand this too and are prepared to lead the continent into this new reality – kicking and screaming or otherwise.

Trump’s dig at Netanyahu shows why he isn’t fit to be president

When Donald Trump appeared at a Republican Jewish Coalition event in 2019, he referred to Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu as ‘your prime minister’. Now that prime minister has incurred Trump’s wrath.

On Tuesday at a rally in South Palm Beach Trump declared that Netanyahu was ‘not prepared’ for the assault by Hamas on Israel. Netanyahu, he said, got cold feet about joining in the assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, who was offed in Iraq in a drone strike on 3 January 2020. For good measure, Trump added that Hezbollah was ‘very smart’.

For Netanyahu, who tried to curry favour with Trump during his presidency, the barbed comments from Trump are another sign that his grasp on power has become more than a little tenuous. Trump, as he has repeatedly said, likes winners. He clearly sees Netanyahu as something else, namely, a loser.

Trump’s nasty comments triggered a predictable backlash in America and Israel. Israeli communications minister Shlomo Karhi said that it was ‘shameful that a man like that, a former US president, abets propaganda and disseminates things that wound the spirit of Israel’s fighters and its citizens’. The White House was more succinct, calling Trump’s remarks ‘dangerous and unhinged’. That they were. Israel, confronted with a barbaric massacre, hardly needs to be reminded that it let its guard down. Netanyahu has in effect been demoted as he shares power in a unity government with former army general Benny Gantz, his main political rival in recent years. 

But Trump can be counted upon with metronomic regularity to lash out petulantly during a crisis. Or any time for that matter. As Israel grapples with its predicament in the Gaza strip, however, Trump’s asides underscore that he not only shouldn’t be allowed to become commander-in-chief again but that he should never have occupied the position in the first place. 

During a second term, Trump would make Dr. Strangelove look like the soul of sanity. Ukraine, Taiwan and the Middle East would all be subject to his whims. Trump is the reverse of President Joe Biden – an ill-wisher whose only lodestar is puffing and preening about his sagacity. Why would anyone entrust a man who can turn on America’s allies and friends as capriciously as Trump with another four years in the Oval Office?

Simon Case embarrassed (again)

Like a reverse Macavity, the Cabinet Secretary is back in the headlines, at the centre of another Whitehall scandal. Today it was the Covid inquiry – the longest-running farce since Charley’s Aunt. As part of the inquiry’s ongoing hearings, it today published evidence about how decisions were made back in the dark days of 2020 when the UK was wrestling with the first wave of Covid deaths.

Among the messages shown to the inquiry were exchanges in a WhatsApp group between Simon Case and Lee Cain, the-then Downing Street Director of Communications. In one Cain asks ‘Wtf are we talking about’ to which Case replies ‘Whatever Carrie cares about, I guess’. He then went on to add ‘I was always told that Dom was the secret PM. How wrong they are. I look forward to telling select cttee tomorrow “oh, fuck no, don’t worry about Dom, the real person in charge is Carrie”.’

After Cain complained ‘She doesn’t know wtf she is talking about either’ Case retorted ‘This gov’t doesn’t have the credibility needed to be imposing stuff within only 6 days of deciding not too. We look like a terrible, tragic joke… I cannot cope with this.’ Yikes. It comes seven months after the Telegraph published other WhatsApps which showed Case mocking those affected by the government’s lockdown policies. With the inquiry set to rumble on throughout much of the 2020s, Steerpike expects to see even more embarrassing messages being made public in the coming years.

The question is: at what point does even Case decide he’s had enough?

Russia is trying to break through Ukraine’s front line before winter

Ukraine is on fire. Russian forces have launched an offensive across the entire front line in their final push before winter. About a hundred combat clashes took place yesterday, one of the most decisive of which is unfolding in Avdiivka. A suburb of occupied Donetsk, Avdiivka fell under the control of pro-Russian militants for three months back in 2014 before it was liberated. Now Avdiivka is under attack again, with Ukrainian soldiers trying to stop the largest offensive on the city since the onset of the war.

Avdiivka has been semi-encircled by Russian forces from the north, east and south for months, with little change on the ground. In the initial assault on Tuesday, approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers and up to a hundred armoured vehicles descended upon the city. Russian troops were aiming for a blitzkrieg: they live-streamed their assault, which they described as a ‘massive offensive’, and filmed their aircraft heading to bombard Avdiivka. Russian state media and their so-called military bloggers gave the impression that Russian forces were on the verge of entering the city.

Ukrainian soldiers, fearful of a possible breakthrough, described the situation as ‘hell’ on social media. Others said they were outnumbered and several positions were lost. Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential office, claimed that Russian forces had used phosphorus bombs against Ukrainian fighters. The video of what looked like white phosphorus raining down on the city emerged on social media, but it is hard to verify. 

What we do know is that Russian forces have captured about five square kilometres of territory and advanced southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne and northwest of Avdiivka near Stepove and Krasnohorivka, where they encountered minefields, anti-tank defences and heavy artillery fire. From there, the infantry began advancing in small groups of 20 to 30 soldiers, simultaneously infiltrating from more than a dozen directions with air support. Vitaly Barabash, head of the Avdiivka military administration, described Russian troops as ‘cockroaches, trying to find a loophole in’. He added that Ukrainian military positions get hit at least 500-600 times a day, but his men ‘stand firmly’. 

Four days of fighting have inflicted relatively heavy losses: the Russian forces have likely lost at least a battalion’s worth of armoured vehicles in offensive operations around Avdiivka, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Conservative estimates suggest Ukrainian forces have destroyed at least 36 Russian armoured vehicles, including tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and transport vehicles.

Avdiivka remains one of the most heavily fortified frontline areas in Donetsk Oblast. A successful encirclement of the city will likely require more forces than Russia is currently deploying. The Russian military command is seeking to draw attention to its ability to conduct combat operations, pin down Ukrainian forces and stop reserves from moving to key areas of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhya region.

So far, the Avdiivka offensive showed that the real challenge for both armies is in trying to switch from defence to offence, which is especially tough in this tech-driven war. Encircling Avdiivka is Russia’s best shot at gaining at least one small victory before the first snow. But soldiers are struggling to break through the enemy line head-on.

Whether Russia does make progress or not, Avdiivka, once home to 32,000 people, lies in ruin. More than 1,600 residents remain in what is left of their homes – they are trapped, due to heavy shelling. 

What is the right punishment for Just Stop Oil’s Cambridge protestor?

As a longstanding supporter of ancient over modern in the architecture stakes, it can only grieve me to see the front wall of King’s College, Cambridge defaced by the orange paint of Just Stop Oil. But that’s what happened to a ten-metre stretch of stone wall near the porters’ lodge yesterday.

I left those very hallowed portals more than a quarter of a century ago. In my day, a similar attack was carried out on the college by visitors from the Polytechnic of North London who had been invited to an event by chi-chi socialists in the King’s student body. Back then, King’s was the home of radical chic, while ‘PNL’ was the leftist real deal and its students no-doubt rejoiced on the way back down the M11 at having put one over on their over-privileged hosts.

This week’s suspected miscreant was swiftly arrested – a pink-trousered, poodle haired person whose gender it would be hazardous to guess. One could say there was a distinct resemblance to a young Brian May, but equally to a young Anita Dobson. So we must await confirmation of pronouns.

No doubt the incident will have set off earnest discussions among King’s undergraduates, who remain by repute some of the most left-wing in the whole of Cambridge. Was the protest justified on grounds of the ‘climate emergency’ facing the world? Or did it just amount to trite and cliched attention-seeking by an egotistical oaf?

One hopes the latter view will predominate. After all, the sheer midwittery involved in inflicting criminal damage in such a formulaic way on something so lovely should surely not hold much appeal to anyone with a first-rate mind.  

Were I ‘in charge’, as bar-room prophets are wont to say, I’d bring back the stocks for people like the Cambridge dauber and the prodigiously self-important young chap who threw glitter over Keir Starmer on Tuesday too.

They pose no major threat to anyone and do not merit imprisonment, not least on grounds of the cost that would impose on taxpayers. And yet their actions are socially transgressive and worthy of stigma and punishment. A stint acting as a target for throwers of rotten tomatoes and other organic matter would be just the job. 

Within hours of the attack at King’s, two members of the college staff could be seen setting about the long job of scrubbing paint off the walls: squat men reminiscent of David Jason in the TV adaptation of Porterhouse Blue. Regular guys earning an honest living and no doubt lacking the conceit to imagine there could be a justification for engaging in wanton vandalism. In Cambridge it has always been the working classes who keep the show on the road.

As oil prices rise, the permacrisis continues

It was a year ago this weekend that Liz Truss sacked her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, over the fallout of their ‘growth plan’. This marked the beginning of the end of Truss’s premiership: she then appointed Jeremy Hunt to the role, and he swiftly dismantled almost every part of her infamous mini-Budget.

Since leaving No. 10, Truss has been quick to return to the political spotlight, writing comment pieces for national papers, giving interviews, making speeches and interventions – and launching a Growth Commission through which she continues to take the Office for Budget Responsibility to task. But just as Truss continues to make her views known, so do her critics.

One of those critics is Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England’s Governor. Speaking at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank’s annual meeting in Marrakesh this morning, Bailey was keen to draw comparisons between the economic landscape this time last year and today. The IMF has downgraded its forecasts for economic growth in the UK next year (which I look at, and question, here), but Bailey couldn’t help but to compare the circumstances to the Truss era, saying: ‘I’m probably the one person that can come in here and say things really do look better today than they did on this day last year.’ He then doubled down on his comments to the audience, adding: ‘I can say that with some confidence.’

But markets weren’t tuning in for Bailey’s take on Truss – they were listening closely to the Governor’s comments on the future of rate hikes, at a time of increasing uncertainty. The cost of petrol rose in October for the fourth consecutive month, while the brutal attacks carried out by Hamas in Israel have triggered a spike in oil futures. So far, the FTSE seems to be holding up slightly better than its peers, mostly thanks to BP and Shell’s strong performances, which have been balancing out other dips.

Bailey didn’t stray far from the Monetary Policy Committee’s last report, insisting that bank policy would remain ‘restrictive’ and that there was ‘an awful lot still to do’ to tackle inflation. Market expectation is for the bank rate, currently at 5.25 per cent, to peak at around 5.5 per cent. This is down from an expected high of around 6 per cent just months ago.

Bailey’s comments emphasised that these decisions remain far from certain, as future rate votes are ‘going to go on being tight ones’ (he was referencing the last vote, which came in at 5-4 to hold rates). He did, however, note the ‘subdued outlook’ for the economy. The Bank is not predicting a recession (as Ross Clark points out on Coffee House, the UK is now safe from meeting the technical definition of recession this year), but the consensus among major forecasters remains that growth prospects for the next few years remain stagnant.

Hunt has also been speaking in Marrakesh this morning, talking about what those higher rates have done to the public finances. Hunt, like Bailey, stuck to the script that we’ve heard before. The Chancellor insisted that now was not the time to talk about tax cuts, not least because rising rates will add up to an additional £30 billion to the government’s debt servicing costs in the Autumn Statement. The prospect of energy costs rising once again – and driving inflation back up – will also be weighing heavily on the Chancellor’s mind, as conflict in the Middle East looks set to escalate. The permacrisis continues.

This was originally published in Kate’s weekly Economics newsletter. Sign up here.

Hard Times for Sunak as his ratings slump again

It’s tough at the top. A new poll out today from the Times shows that for all the hype around Rishi Sunak’s conference speech, his popularity has now fallen to a record low. According to youGov, only 20 per cent of voters believe Sunak would make the best Prime Minister, down five points in a week. It’s his lowest approval rating since he entered Downing Street a year ago this month. Hardly the curtain-raiser that No. 10 wanted ahead of parliament’s return on Monday…

In fairness to Sunak, it’s not like voters are rushing to Sir Keir Starmer off the back of his efforts either. His rating fell by two points to 32 per cent. Were an election to be held tomorrow ‘Don’t know’ would be the runaway favourite as our national leader, winning 43 per cent of voters, uncertain as to who would make the best leader. It makes you wonder what the huffing and puffing of the commentariat this past fortnight was all about.

According to the Times however, Labour has managed to increase its lead over the Tories from 21 points to 23, with 28 per cent of voters believing Sir Keir now has a ‘clear plan’ for the country, up six points since conference. Rishi meanwhile got 19 per cent, despite his conference slogan pledging that the Conservatives will take ‘long-term decisions for a brighter future.’

If Downing Street are about to pull off the greatest comeback since Lazarus, they ought to get a move on….

Gandhi’s rebranding by Hindu nationalists

Three quarters of a century after his death, Mahatma Gandhi is still everywhere in India: from statues that welcome visitors at airports to currency, state memorials, street names, commemorative institutions and hospitals, art galleries, political campaign posters, and various forms of popular art. This month – as India marks his 154^th birthday – it was harder than ever to escape Gandhi. But it isn’t only Gandhi’s image that lingers.

Affectionately dubbed bapu (father) by his followers, Gandhi’s values have served as the centre of India’s moral consciousness since the nation’s inception.

But his principles have been used and abused by competing groups, particularly egregiously by Hindu nationalists. Gandhi’s core ideals were of truth, religious tolerance and non-violence.The BJP’sversion ofnationalism, meanwhile, favours post-truth politics and a militant masculinitythat privileges a homogenous Hindu identity.

A Hindu fundamentalist, Nathuram Godse, assassinated Gandhi, as revenge for his policy of religious appeasement of Muslims (that led to the partition of India and Pakistan along religious lines). It is no surprise that Godse is now being revived as a hero through commemorative statues and memorials by some Hindu political outfits in India. Godse was a follower of Hindu nationalism’s most important ideologue, Vinayak Damodardas Savarkar, who has even recently been lionised as a true patriot by Narendra Modi and his cabinet.

As well as the events marking Gandhi’s birthday, world leaders from 30 countries paid their respects at the Gandhi memorial in New Delhi, during last month’s G20 summit. Gandhi’s round spectacles are the brand logo for the BJP’s Clean India Campaign. A life-sized hologram of him was projected at the launch of the UNESCO Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Education for Peace and Sustainable Development. There are plans to turn one of his residences – the Sabarmati Ashram – into a flashy ‘world class’ tourist destination (though this has been met with public outcry). More concerningly, references to Gandhi’s dislike for Hindu nationalism have been removed from revised school textbooks (which have also cut out references to the Mughal – read Muslim – influence on India).

It also remains difficult to reconcile Gandhi’s championing of women’s equal rights with the BJP ministers’ routine sexist remarks. Despite Gandhi’s efforts towards the eradication of untouchability, caste-based atrocities and lynchings persist. The most disturbing perversion of all of Gandhi’s political legacy is the disregard for communal harmony as Muslim minorities continue to be vilified and victimised by the Hindu nationalist government. 

INDIA Alliance (a coalition of opposition parties led by the Congress) decided to hold a march in Mumbai on Gandhi’s birth anniversary as a symbol of peaceful protest against the BJP’s politics. The march was titled ‘Main Bhi Gandhi’ (I Too Am Gandhi). In reaction to skirmishes with the police and arrests of protestors, Mumbai Congress President Varsha Gaikwad said: ‘It is unfortunate if permission was not granted for a silent morcha [march], that too for Mahatma Gandhi.’ Peaceful protest marches have been considered a form of Gandhian non-violent politics and denying them on Gandhi’s birthday is ironic, she said: ‘Everybody knows under whose order the police went in aggressive mode.’

Gandhi was a man of many saintly virtues and several human failings, saddled as he was with the role of the Mahatma for a nation. His worldview was shaped as much by John Ruskin and Leo Tolstoy, as the Quran and the Bible. Most importantly, his Hinduism was compatible with his secularism and a deep regard for human suffering – a fact that Hindu nationalism still struggles to come to terms with.

Three tips at two meetings tomorrow

Tomorrow’s Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (Newmarket, 2.40 p.m.) is worth more than £100,000 to the winner and it is always a highly competitive affair. As usual, the substantial prize money has attracted several runners from the other side of the Irish Sea and it is not hard to see why one of them, Pied Piper, is the favourite.

Gordon Elliott’s five-year-old gelding is a high-class hurdler and is extremely well weighted on the flat compared with his jumps’ rating. Furthermore, the canny Irish handler has acquired the services of Ryan Moore in the saddle, even though the jockey would normally be riding one of the fancied horses trained by Willie Mullins.

However, Pied Piper, who can sometimes pull hard, is not guaranteed to stay this two miles two furlongs trip in a fast-run flat race on ground that could become very deep over the next 24 hours. That makes the current top price of 9-2 look unattractive in a race of 34 runners.

Several of the big British trainers also love to target this big prize every year, of course. I had expected to put up Alan King’s Tritonic as I am sure that the trainer has been targeting this Newmarket race ever since his horse finished third at Royal Ascot in June in the Ascot Stakes. However, the ground at Newmarket is now ‘soft’ with more rain to come and Tritonic ran poorly at Goodwood in August after the ground became very slow. So, on balance, I will give him a swerve tomorrow.

Trainer Hughie Morrison will go into the race double-handed. I was also tempted to put up Vino Victrix, who was second in this race a year ago and can run off an official mark of 2lbs less this time around. That’s because he has performed below par so far this season, although his last run at Goodwood strongly suggested that he is about to return to his best. However, Vino Victrix is another horse who probably does not want the ground to be bottomless.

Morrison’s second runner, NOT SO SLEEPY, is, at the age of 11, rapidly becoming something of a legend: I have certainly been a member of his unofficial fan club for some time after his courageous exploits over hurdles and on the flat.

Despite being quirky, Not So Sleepy has run three big races in the Cesarewitch over the past four years, being fourth twice and third once. He is not particularly well weighted tomorrow but he will absolutely love the soft ground and so I am going to put him up one point each way at 18-1 with Sky Bet paying eight places. The more it rains between now and the off, the better it will be for this wonderful old veteran.

My second tip is, admittedly, left field. Jim Goldie is a Scottish trainer who doesn’t mind running each of his horses over a huge variety of distances. Indeed, GEREMIA’s last run was in the bet365 Cambridgeshire over a trip of just one mile one furlong.

Tomorrow, Geremia will run over a distance twice as far and he is not guaranteed to stay, especially if the ground becomes even more testing. However, his Cambridgeshire run was pretty good, being beaten less than four lengths by the winner Astro King. He will certainly benefit from going up in trip but, in truth, his best distance may prove to be two miles or even a couple of furlongs less.

However, with a 7lbs claimer in the saddle, I am happy to take a chance on his stamina and back him each way at 50-1 with Paddy Power or Betfair, both paying seven places. This race sometimes turns up a surprise result, after all.

At York tomorrow, the big handicap is the Coral Sprint Trophy (2.25 p.m.). If this six-furlong contest was run every Saturday, there would always be a different result and it is an easy race to leave alone with a field of 22 runners certain to be spread across the course.

However, I can’t resist backing ALEEZDANCER now that the rain has arrived. Yes, I put him up in the Ayr Gold Cup and he ran poorly but that was because the ground was only ‘good to soft’ and he ideally wants the terrain akin to an Irish bog. Tomorrow it should be much softer that it was at Ayr and, the more of the wet stuff that falls, the better his chances.

I have no doubt that Kevin Ryan’s four-year-old gelding is capable of winning a big sprint handicap when he gets his favoured ground. Stall 1 might well be an advantage and he has a 7lbs claimer in the saddle too. Back him 2 points win at 16-1 with Paddy Power or Betfair.

Happy punting, as always.

2023 flat season running total: – 43.62 points.

2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.

Pending:

1 point each way Not So Sleepy at 18-1 in the Cesarewitch, paying eight places.

1 point each way Geremia at 50-1 in the Cesarewitch, paying seven places.

2 points win Aleezdancer at 16-1 in the Coral Portland Trophy.

Settled bets from last week:

2 points win Dark Trooper at 7-1 in the John Geest Racing Bengough Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.

2 points win Popmaster at 14-1 for the Howden Challenge Cup. 2^nd. – 2 points.

1 point each way Bless Him at 20-1 for the Howden Challenge Cup, paying five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.

My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a one point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either one point each way or two points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).

Bill Gates has made a surprisingly good point about net zero

Is Bill Gates a sage figure who can help save the world from climate change? Or is he a dreadful old hypocrite who likes to lecture us on climate while flying around the world by private jet, and who pushes certain technologies because he has personally invested in them? There are plenty of people who take the latter view.

Gates was reported to have taken 59 flights in 2017 and admits to have flown to the 2015 Paris climate conference by private jet. Moreover, he claims to have invested $1 billion (£818 million) of his own money in green technologies, so he is not exactly neutral on the subject – he is as much a vested interest as is ExxonMobil.

Nevertheless, he does make a good point in an interview with the website Our World in Data. Rich countries, he said, not only owe it to the world to get their own carbon emissions down to zero, but to drive ‘green premiums to zero’ in order to help poorer countries to decarbonise. In other words, it is our responsibility to develop zero carbon technology so that it is no more expensive than current, carbon-intensive technologies. Then, the whole world can decarbonise without suffering an economic hit.

This is diametrically opposed to the approach currently being taken by Britain. We only really care about getting our own emissions to zero, at whatever cost to our own citizens. Inasmuch as we have a policy for the developing world it seems to consist of bunging them aid money in order to persuade them to stop doing things like burning coal. If that makes them poorer it doesn’t seem to bother us.

Take Britain’s net zero target. As it stands, this is purely a ‘territorial target’ – it involves only emissions physically spewed out in Britain. It doesn’t include emissions created elsewhere in the world in the name of growing food and manufacturing consumer goods for UK consumers. Come 2050, Britain could declare that it had reached net zero – when all we had really done is offshore our emissions by closing down our agriculture and heavy industry and importing food and consumer goods instead. This wouldn’t help the planet, only earn our own government virtue points. And it would come at tremendous cost to Britain.     

By Gates’ reasoning, we should be less obsessed with getting our own emissions down to net zero – and become rather more proactive in developing, and reducing the cost of, green technologies which would help the whole world decarbonise. Gates raises the case of steel and cement-making, which account for around 10 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2015, he says, the world did not have the means to decarbonise either of these industries, but now he says it is looking a lot more promising. He cites the example of a cement-making process which involves injecting carbon dioxide into cement so that it absorbs some of the emissions involved in its manufacturing process (a technology which, by the way, he says he has invested in).

Gates may turn out to be a bit Panglossian on this. Cement can only absorb so much carbon dioxide, and after the scandal of aerated concrete we should be a little wary of the long-term effects of novel materials like this. There is no guarantee that green steel or cement will ever match traditional processes on cost – at present they are a long, long way off. 

But it is hard to escape his overall point, that if we want to decarbonise the world we are not going to achieve it by hairshirt means – telling people they can’t do things. We are going to get there by developing technology which allows emissions to be cut without compromising economic growth.

At the moment, Britain, with its rigid net zero targets, is very much on the hairshirt track. Our leaders are trying to fool us that net zero policies will save us money, while simultaneously loading households with tens of thousands of pounds of costs.             

An invasion of Gaza is hugely risky for Israel

In a sign that the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) is planning to ramp up the war in Gaza, Israel has called for evacuation of 1.1 million Palestinian civilians from the northern area of the Gaza Strip. The UN quickly condemned Israel’s announcement, claiming that an evacuation within the 24-hour timeframe given is ‘impossible’, and have called on Israel to rescind its order.

The war, which started on Saturday following a surprise attack by Hamas, saw the biggest single massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. The horrific details of what ensued included the murder of babies, the rape and murder of women and girls, and people being burned alive. Civilians, including children and babies, have been abducted into Gaza.

In the seven days since the war started, Israel has operated in several avenues. The first, is a massive bombardment of Gaza. The aerial bombardment has targeted Hamas terrorists, essential infrastructure, tunnels and underground weapons storage facilities. It has caused large scale destruction.

Because Hamas has embedded itself deep within civilian population, including by digging underground hiding spaces for terrorists directly underneath apartment blocks, casualties have so far amounted to over 1,500, according to Palestinian sources. Many are civilians. Hamas has threatened to execute hostages if the strikes continue – a threat which has so far failed to deter Israel.

In an effort to place more pressure on Hamas, Israel has placed Gaza under siege. It cut off supply of electricity, petrol and water on Monday. Humanitarian aide is still possible, and the United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Administration (UNRA) still operates in Gaza, but have relocated to the southern part of the strip. Food is in limited supply, and so is drinking water, much of which has become contaminated.

However, bombardment and a siege have limitations and cannot fully fulfil Israel’s aims. These include landing a decisive strike on Hamas and its leaders from which it will not recover, reaching Israeli hostages and re-establishing deterrence against Israel’s enemies, primarily Iran and Hezbollah. Israel has amassed a force of 300,00 soldiers ready to enter Gaza. A ground operation is the only way to advance these goals, but it is extremely complicated and risky warfare.

As part of its attack plan, Hamas has prepared itself for the option that Israel will send ground forces into Gaza. It has strategically placed bombs and other obstacles meant to slow down IDF forces and maximise casualties. Hamas’s tunnels can be used for offensives against Israeli soldiers, in much the same way that the Viet Cong successfully attacked (and defeated) American troops in the Vietnam war using the infamous Củ Chi tunnels.

Fighting in Gaza’s densely populated and extremely hostile environment has always been tricky for the IDF. Israel’s weariness of casualties among its soldiers has played a part in decisions about the use of ground forces for decades. In the second Lebanon war, fought in July and August 2006, for example, there was an over-reliance on airpower in order to avoid casualties. This greatly restricted Israel’s achievements. In Operation Cast Lead in Gaza (December 2008 to January 2009) and Operation Strong Cliff (2014), also in Gaza, ground forces were deployed for a short time period and did not go deep into the territory, staying on the outskirts. These decision were guided more by wanting to minimise casualties than by operative considerations.

Israel’s latest announcement to evacuate northern Gaza suggests that a ground operation may be imminent. It is not a decision taken lightly and it holds considerable risk. However, if successful, it will be strategically significant. Hamas’s leadership, the ones still in Gaza, are hidden deep within the territory, surrounded by civilians, and possibly, also by Israeli hostages. Holding territory and controlling it is the best way to for Israeli forces to reach Hamas’s leaders.

If Israeli hostages are rescued by military means, which is unlikely, it will only be done using ground forces. There are about 150 Israelis held in Gaza, according to estimates, and Israel suspects that many of them have already died. It is more likely that hostages will be released as past of a deal.

So far, Hamas is not deterred by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, nor by civilian casualties. It has urged Palestinians not to leave Northern Gaza. Hamas has called Israel’s warning ‘propaganda’ and ‘psychological warfare’. If Palestinians stay, this will inevitably result in mass casualties. This serves Hamas in two ways. First, they can keep using civilians as a human shield. Second, it can turn international public opinion against Israel and place pressure on them to end the war.

If Israel commences a ground operation, it may be lengthy and costly. The old paradigm adopted by previous Israeli governments, and favoured by Benjamin Netanyahu in particular, was to accept Hamas’s rule in Gaza, as along as relative calm was maintained. This is no longer the case. After the horrific massacre, Israel cannot allow Hamas to exist. Destroying its considerable capabilities is a monumental but essential task that will require resilience and patience from the Israeli public, especially as military casualties are expected to mount as a result of a ground operation.

France’s Jews are afraid

Emmanuel Macron addressed France on television on Thursday evening. It was an opportunity for the president to reiterate his support for Israel in its war against Hamas, but also to call for his country to remain united.  

As Macron spoke to the nation, police in Paris were using tear gas and water cannons to disperse a pro-Hamas demonstration. Meanwhile, some 10,000 police in France have been deployed to stand guard outside Jewish schools and places of worship.  

The atmosphere is tense and France’s Jewish community are right to be frightened. No European country has suffered as much brutal anti-Semitism as France in the last decade.  

On Wednesday two of Macron’s ministers visited a Jewish school in Sarcelles, a northern suburb of Paris, in a show of solidarity. Why Sarcelles? It was here in 2014 that mobs of youths went on the rampage in response to an Israeli offensive in Gaza. They attacked Jewish shops and desecrated a synagogue. Two years earlier in Sarcelles an extremist had thrown a grenade into a Kosher shop; that was the same year an Islamist shot dead three Jewish children and their teacher in a Toulouse school.  

In January 2015 an Islamic State gunman murdered four shoppers in a kosher store in Paris. As the BBC reported at the time, acts of anti-Semitism had risen by more than 90 per cent in France in 2014 and half of all religiously-motivated attacks were against Jews, despite the fact they represented under 1 per cent of the population.  

By 2022, attacks against Jews in France had increased from 50 per cent of the total number of religious-motivated crimes to 62 per cent. That figure is likely to rise again following Hamas’ murderous assault on Israel. On Thursday police announced that so far this week they have logged over 100 anti-Semitic acts and made 41 arrests.  

France isn’t alone in experiencing a surge in anti-Semitism; across Europe, from Stockholm to Berlin, Jews are justifiably fearful. In London, a city its mayor likes to claim is a beacon of tolerance, four Jewish schools have closed and pupils in other establishments have been advised not to wear their kippah on the way home. 89 anti-Semitic incidents have been recorded in the UK this week: a 300 per cent increase on the same period in 2022. 

The truth – so bitter that no political leader has yet summoned up the courage to admit it – is that through its uncontrolled immigration policy Europe has exacerbated tensions around the Palestine conflict.  

Earlier in the week, Le Figaro interviewed Pierre Brochand, France’s erstwhile ambassador to Israel and also the former head of DGSE, the equivalent of MI6. He expressed his regret that Gerald Darmanian, the Minister of the Interior, had been obliged to convene a security conference to ‘deal with the repercussions on our soil of events taking place 3,000 kilometers away’. 

But Brochand was not surprised. ‘This is just one of the many security repercussions that non-European immigration can have on our society,’ he said, adding that there is now among the French population ‘a significant proportion [who] feel solidarity with the Palestinian cause, whatever means they use.’ 

Last week, France revealed that in the first eight months of 2023 there were a record 93,000 asylum applications. Syrians, Bangladeshis and Turks represented more than a quarter of all claims.  

Of the tens of thousands of migrants who have crossed illegally into Britain in small boats since 2018, seven countries make up 83 per cent of all arrivals: Iran, Albania, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Eritrea and Sudan.  

How many of these people have brought their governments’ anti-Semitism with them across the sea? We have no idea because Europe long since gave up border checks, allowing well over a million migrants into the continent without establishing what they think of Jews, gays or women. 

The video of migrants in a Greek camp celebrating Hamas’s slaughter of Israeli women and children should send a chill down the spine of every Jewish European.  

In an interview on German television this week, Henry Kissinger described his ‘pain’ at seeing images of demonstrators in Berlin celebrating the slaughter of Israel women and children. The 100-year-old Nobel Peace Prize winner issued a grim critique of where Germany and Europe have gone wrong. ‘It was a grave mistake to let in so many people of totally different culture and religion and concepts, because it creates a pressure group inside each country that does that,’ he said. 

Kissinger fled Germany to the USA in 1938 to escape the Nazis; how long before a new generation of German and European Jews are forced to make the same journey because they are no longer safe in their own country? 

How Hamas fooled Israel – and the West

How to explain Israel’s intelligence and military failure? The obvious comparison – one Israelis themselves are making – is with the 1973 October War, when the country was sucker-punched by Egyptian and Syrian forces on Yom Kippur, the Day of Repentance. That became known as a failing of the konzeptzia, the Hebrew term for the way we frame the world with all its attendant risks. It seems to have happened again.

In the West, Israel is generally seen as either admirably or reprehensibly tough-minded, taking the hardest line against its enemies whatever the circumstances and punching back twice as hard. The trouble is, it’s not at all clear that this is true – now at least. 

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu talks tough. But if you look at the way he has handled the Iran file, for example, he has been extremely cautious, authorising air strikes against IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) positions in Syria and Lebanon, but taking care not to provoke Hezbollah – and relying on clandestine rather than overt activity inside Iran itself.

Israel’s recent domestic turmoil, over the coalition government’s approach to judicial and legal reform, has, of course, taken up much of the available political oxygen for months. But both Netanyahu and many others within Israel’s national security establishment seem to have come to believe that Hamas could be contained. The organisation was primarily interested in consolidating its position inside Gaza. Its ultimate goal may have been to take over the West Bank and displace Fatah as the predominant force in Palestinian politics. But that was a problem for another day. Its access to Qatari cash and mediation, and its long-standing working relations with Egypt and Turkey gave it something to lose and brought a welcome degree of predictability.

From time to time, when Hamas decided it needed to flex its muscles by firing rockets in a display of performative aggression, Iron Dome was there to intercept them. More or less everyone went home happy. Just as in Northern Ireland, where Sinn Fein and the IRA were seen as the best bulwark against dissident republicans, so Hamas could act as a bulwark against Al-Qaeda, Islamic State and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Allowing Hamas to build its own state with Gulf cash, PA transfers and revenue from employment in Israel, the theory went, might bring a sense of responsibility. It would also make it wary, at least in public, of taking too Iranian – that is bellicose – a line on general issues of Palestinian liberation. And the judicious adjustment of economic safety valves would regulate any incentives to seek Iranian cash. This month, for example, Israel re-issued permits and reopened the Erez Crossing to almost 18,000 Palestinian workers, a reward for an understanding that Hamas would reduce friction, such as recent ‘civilian’ border protests.

How illusory this all now appears. These protests, it turns out, were not simply a spectacle. They were a test of security and therefore an integral part of the preparations for Saturday’s operation.  Iran may have been consulted in advance and have provided some advice and resources. Hamas will have taken lessons from previous Hezbollah operations, particularly those designed to infiltrate Israel and seize hostages. But Hamas will have planned the exact course of the violence – the targeting of civilians, including women and children, the desecration of corpses, the cold-blooded mass murder – all by itself. And it has taken a leaf out of Da’esh’s book by filming every horror and then broadcasting the footage on social media.

Too many people seem to have persuaded themselves that Hamas was open to negotiations, and – a recurring dream – might be willing to accept a long-term ceasefire (hudna) in return for guarantees of economic easing. This meant ignoring its adamantine ideology, even if a statement of general principles, toning down the virulent and genocidal anti-Semitism of its 1988 Charter – but not abrogating it – was published for western consumption in 2017. These illusions have been shared by some British and American officials and commentators, who have sought to push Israel towards acceptance and conciliation.

Israel has for years facilitated the delivery inside Gaza of humanitarian aid from international relief agencies and NGOs, whose standard response at times of conflict is to urge Israel to end military action against terrorists who shelter among civilians and in the basements of crowded blocks of flats or hospitals. They even allowed Qatar, who we at Policy Exchange described as a ‘frenemy’ of Britain in a report last year, to send over a billion dollars of assistance as part of a package of relief measures. This money has simply enabled Hamas to evade its own responsibilities to the people of Gaza and continue to build its military capabilities.

There appear to be no examples of engagement with Islamists that have led to a positive change in that organisation’s behaviour. Usually the reverse is true. That remains the case today.  

Islamism, of course, is not a uniform entity, any more than communism was. And even within organisations like Hamas, which is ethno-nationalist as well as Islamist, there are different trends, as there were in the Comintern. But there are certain ideological basics, for example constitutive anti-Semitism, misogyny, religious supremacism and a belief that extreme violence in God’s name can be Islamically justified, that should be anathema in a liberal, secular society. As it threatens to film executions of its hostages, Hamas needs to be seen for what it is – a globally-connected group of brutal mujahidin in control of the Islamist Emirate of Gaza.

There are also lessons here for Britain. The European Union announced it will immediately review its development funding programmes in the West Bank and Gaza (even if there was some confusion about whether it was backtracking). The Foreign Office should do the same. The aim is not to stop helping Palestinians. It is to make sure that Hamas as an organisation does not benefit. The Foreign Office has allocated £17 million in development funding for Palestine in this financial year, which is set to rise to £29 million in 2024-5. We need a quick and thorough assessment of who exactly the recipients of that money are. Hamas have more than enough already for their own purposes. They do not need British taxpayers to give them any more. 

Walking the Suffolk Coast Path

When was the last time you woke up bright and early on a weekday morning, with no need for an alarm call, rested and impatient for the day ahead? My last time was a week ago, when I awoke in the Pier Hotel in Harwich, eager to walk the first bit of my latest hike, along the Suffolk Coast Path.

The Suffolk Coast Path runs for 55 miles, from Felixstowe to Lowestoft. Almost the entire route passes through an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. No ugly modern eyesores. Hurrah! As I gobble up my power breakfast (spinach and poached eggs – v healthy), looking out across the cold grey water, I plan today’s trek: along the seafront from Felixstowe, and then up the River Deben to Waldringfield, about 13 miles away.

I first got the idea of walking the Suffolk Coast Path a few months ago, when I staggered into the Pier Hotel, at the end of my trek along the Essex Way. In the Pier, saw a brochure for something called the Milsom Way. You spend the first night in Dedham, then walk to Harwich, where you spend a second night, then on to Waldringfield, with dinner, bed and breakfast at three hotels along the way: Milsoms and the Pier in Essex, and Kesgrave Hall in Suffolk. Milsoms transport your luggage. They can even pick you up en route if you decide you’ve had enough. I’d had a great time walking the first leg, from Dedham to Harwich. The second leg, from Harwich to Waldringfield, looked just as good.

Harwich and Felixstowe face each other across a broad bay where the Stour and Orwell rivers meet. The only natural harbour between the Thames and the Humber, you can see why this crucial confluence forms the border between Essex and Suffolk, and why it’s attracted successive waves of invaders – the promontory where Alfred the Great repelled the Vikings in 885AD is still called Bloody Point. To drive from Harwich to Felixstowe can take an hour. The quickest way is on the foot ferry which sails from the Ha’Penny Pier, in Harwich, landing on the beach in Felixstowe. The crossing, in a small boat, is thrilling, bobbing across the open sea.

I walk along the shingle beach, past Landguard Fort, a huge monolithic hulk built to guard the entrance to this historic strategic harbour. This is the site of the last seaborne invasion of England, by the Dutch in 1667. Rebuilt several times since then, it last saw active service in the second world war. Today it’s a museum and the surrounding headland is a nature reserve, a haven for migrating birds. Look out for Linnets and Ringed Plovers. The army left in 1957 and now nature has restored its sovereignty: the old gun batteries are rusting away; the old military tracks are cracked and blistered, buried beneath a carpet of Knotgrass and Saltwort.

Around the headland I’m in Felixstowe, surrounded by daytrippers soaking up the last of the autumn sunshine. It’s my first time here and I’m pleasantly surprised. All I’d seen of it before, from Harwich, were its rows of giant cranes, marching across the horizon, so I’d assumed it was all industrial. It’s Britain’s busiest container port, but the harbour is on the other side of the headland. Here, you’re in a traditional seaside town – a pier, an amusement arcade, a few refreshment stalls, and lots of brightly painted beach huts. ‘To you it may only be a shed but to me it’s a sanctuary,’ reads a sign.

The promenade is flanked by tidy ornamental gardens, relics of the town’s Edwardian heyday as a fashionable spa resort. The trendy bars and cafes on Beach Street are housed in old shipping containers. Children paddle in the shallows. Pensioners doze on memorial benches along the prom. I walk on and on, and Felixstowe slowly fades into open countryside. I pass a Martello Tower, built to repel an invasion by Napoleon which never came.

I stop to eat my packed lunch at Felixstowe Ferry, an antique crossing over the River Deben. Across the bay is Bawdsey Manor, a neogothic mansion which changed the course of British history. It was here, in the late 1930s, that Sir Robert Watson-Watt and his team of scientists built the first top secret receiver and transmitter towers for a new invention designed to track enemy aircraft, an invaluable asset in any armed conflict. During the second world war, RAF Bawdsey became the world’s first radar station.

Next time I plan to cross the river and walk on towards Aldeburgh, but this time I turn inland and hike upstream, along the Deben. The Saxons sailed up this river to conquer East Anglia after the fall of the Roman Empire. Why is this tranquil shoreline called Kingsfleet? Because this is where Edward III set sail for Flanders, to fight the Hundred Years War. Today the river is narrower and shallower, with mudflats on one side and reedbeds on the other, an ideal habitat for wading birds like Redshanks and Little Egrets. I don’t see any Redshanks today but I do spot a Little Egret, a speck of white, fishing for his dinner in a murky inlet. As I approach he flies away. Dinghies crisscross the languid river, tacking to and fro, eking out the best of the limp breeze.

The Deben is becalmed today, but it’s tidal all the way up to Woodbridge, and its ebbs and flows can be severe. This restless river is forever nibbling away at its marshy shore, and after a few miles I’m forced to head inland. This detour takes me through a silent hamlet called Hemley – a little cluster of cottages huddled around a medieval church, framed by two enormous, archaic oak trees. I lift the latch. The door is open. I step inside. The interior is plain and peaceful, a place of prayer for a millennium.

The footpath zigzags back down to the Deben. I walk along a muddy beach to the Maybush Inn, a pretty riverside pub in Waldringfield. Woodbridge is only a few miles away, and the Saxon burial site of Sutton Hoo a few miles beyond. I meet a nice man with a kind face out walking his dog. I ask him for directions, but he isn’t sure how to get there. I wander on for a while but the fragile footpath along the shore has been eaten away by the incoming tide. I turn back, retracing my steps to the Maybush. I plan to call Kesgrave Hall for a cab and sink a pint or two while I wait for it, but on my way back I meet that nice man again and we get chatting. I tell him I’m writing a piece for The Spectator. His face lights up. He loves The Spectator. He insists on driving me to Kesgrave. I ask for his address so I can write and thank him but he won’t hear of it. We arrive at the hotel and I invite him in for a beer but he waves me away. We say our goodbyes and I tell him I’ll buy him a drink in the next life.

Wayne Rooney and the trouble with football’s big-name managers

Birmingham City’s new American owners are hungry for success and think Wayne Rooney, the former Manchester United and England striker, is the man to deliver it. That’s why they’ve sacked manager John Eustace and handed Rooney a three and a half year contract. Tom Wagner, Birmingham’s co-owner, claims Rooney will take the club on the ‘next stage of our journey’, after dismissing Eustace for being ‘misaligned’ with their ambitions. ‘Wayne is a born winner,’ Wagner explained. A born winner as a player, yes – as a manager not so much. 

Plenty of Birmingham fans are sceptical about Rooney’s managerial track record and rightly so. In his first two jobs as manager – Derby County and DC United – he won just 38 out of 139 games (a win rate of 27.3 per cent). World-beating management this is not.

Even some football pundits, a profession dominated by ex-players who are reluctant to call out one of their own like Rooney, appear mystified by the turn of events. Eustace was doing a good job (Birmingham are currently in the play-off spots in the Championship) and he had previously led the club through a successful relegation battle. His sacking came after two straight home wins in which the team scored seven goals. What more could anyone reasonably want? Certainly the Birmingham fans appeared happy enough with Eustace, who has long-standing connections with the club.

Bizarrely enough, Birmingham have been down this path before. In 2016, the club sacked manager Gary Rowett when they were seventh in the Championship, replacing him with a big name, the former Chelsea star Gianfranco Zola. It didn’t end well: Zola lost his job just four months later, during which the team won only twice in 24 games.

The omens this time round are not good, either. The pressure will be on Rooney from day one and he will struggle to win over the sceptics. Birmingham are currently 6th in the Championship table. Can Rooney realistically be expected to take them much higher by the end of the season? What would success look like? Does anyone know?

The fans will be on his back from the very first game and any setbacks will be magnified. The club’s owners will certainly get more coverage and wider brand recognition because of the inevitable draw of Rooney but this counts for little on the pitch itself. All in all, it looks a risky and unnecessary gamble. 

Rooney’s appointment is symptomatic of a romantic but flawed faith across football that the great players have what it takes to be elite managers, simply because they have achieved success playing at the highest levels. In reality few, if any, make the grade.

Take the ex-Liverpool and England midfielder Steven Gerrard, a brilliant player and leader on the pitch, and once widely tipped to be a great success in management. He was sacked from his job at Aston Villa after a run of mediocre results, and he is now managing in the minnow Saudi Pro League. It is hard to see where he goes next.

Frank Lampard, also a footballing giant at club and international level, is another who was tipped to do big things in management. He is currently without a club, after a disastrous and short-lived second spell as manager of Chelsea. Would any Chelsea fans want him back?

Gary Neville, a pundit, club owner and businessman, was lauded in some quarters as the next big thing, made for a life in coaching and management. He left his post as England assistant manager under Roy Hodgson after a humiliating 2-1 defeat to Iceland in the 2016 Euros. Neville was also sacked as manager of Valencia in La Liga after just a few months in charge. The list of footballing stars who didn’t quite make it to the very top as managers also includes Bobby Moore, England’s only ever World Cup-winning captain. 

The jury is still out on Wayne Rooney: perhaps he will prove the doubters wrong and turn out to be a very good manager. It is fair to say that, so far, he has demonstrated little to suggest that he is a serial managerial winner in the mould of Pep Guardiola or Jurgen Klopp. No one should feel too sorry for him though – there is always the Saudi Pro League.

Why the Square Mile beats Canary Wharf

When a building’s construction requires the closure of a nearby airport, you know that the building is tall. But that’s the thing about the Square Mile at the moment – it’s so successful that the only way is up.

The cranes on 22 Bishopsgate (rather than the building itself) reached such a height, as the skyscraper neared completion, that they exceeded the permitted limit for City Airport, meaning that for a few short periods the airport had to halt flights. As you stand in Horizon 22, the viewing gallery that has just opened (tickets are free but booking up fast), looking down at nearby streets is like reading the A to Z. But while 22 Bishopsgate might be head and shoulders above its neighbours (912 feet, 62 storeys), there are plenty more office towers on the way.

‘Over half a million people a day come into the Square Mile to work,’ says Shravan Joshi, the City of London’s Planning and Transport Committee chair. ‘We’re now back to 85 per cent of the weekday activity from before the pandemic. Even if people stick to the “hybrid” model [working partly from home], the projected growth means we’re going to need another 20 million square feet of office space by 2042.’ The plan is to develop in two main locations: at the eastern edge (that is, near the current Bishopsgate cluster) and in the area near Ludgate Circus.

The City is reaching for the skies because it has run out of space at ground level. It isn’t like Canary Wharf, which took a ‘build it and they will come’ approach. Yes, they came – but they never really liked it. Just about anyone who’s ever worked there tells you how soulless it feels. ‘It’s true that there’s more bustle – and better food – in Canary Wharf than back in the 1990s,’ the business journalist Harry Wallop tells me. ‘But it still feels terribly ersatz. Like it is playing at being a city.’ You can’t create history in three decades. The City’s buzz is the result of centuries of activity – indeed millennia, if you go all the way back to the Romans.

As if to symbolise the Square Mile’s superiority, HSBC are moving their London headquarters from Canary Wharf to the site near St Paul’s previously occupied by BT (and 22 Bishopsgate has attracted tenants from Canary Wharf too). Shravan Joshi is keen to point out that he doesn’t see the two areas as competitors: ‘We need Canary Wharf to thrive, like they need us to thrive, and we both need the West End to thrive.’ But the City just has that magic. Walking its streets gives you a thrill, partly because they’re so narrow – you can almost feel the energy pushing the buildings ever upwards.

However trading on your history isn’t enough – success depends on constant reinvention. Just as City workers look very different from the 1950s (when future Tory politician Peter Walker was told that a condition of his employment was to wear a bowler hat to and from the office), so do City buildings. There are 20 football pitches’ worth of floor space in 22 Bishopsgate (as well as 1,000 miles of cabling), but it caters for every sort of tenant, from firms with thousands of employees right down to individuals. Freelancers can rent desk space in one of the shared areas. There’s no need for a reception desk – each tenant emails a QR code direct to their visitors, which allows access through the security barriers. ‘These days it’s really about allowing people to interact,’ says Phillip Shalless of AXA IM Alts (who manage the building on behalf of its investors). The lifts in towers like this used to restrict you to the floors occupied by your firm, but that isn’t the way here. ‘We host regular events that any of our tenants can come along to – talks and so on. There are restaurants where people can meet up, there’s a gym… It’s very different from the City of old.’ Phillip shows me the gym’s climbing wall: it’s fixed to one of the external windows, so you can look out at London as you work up a sweat. The building is dog-friendly, it has space for 1700 bikes in the basement… Peter Walker would take off his bowler hat and scratch his head.

The City’s new skyscrapers might all be tall, but no two look the same. Each has its own character and quirks. The Cheesegrater’s sloping side is to prevent it impinging on the protected view of St Paul’s from Fleet Street. The Heron Tower was named in honour of the developer’s father, HEnry RONson. The Gherkin looks nicely rounded, but amazingly it only contains one curved piece of glass – the horizontal one at the top.

Another change is that the Square Mile no longer becomes a ghost town at the weekend. It’s actually 20 per cent busier on Saturdays and Sundays than it was before Covid, after a policy of opening up to retail and leisure. The former is a return to the City’s past – Cheapside got its name because ‘chepe’ means market, and the turnings off it (Bread Street, Milk Street, Honey Lane and so on) reflected the products you could buy there. The proliferation of hotels, though, is genuinely new. Until the 1980s the Square Mile only had one (the station hotel at Liverpool Street). Now you’ve got a choice of dozens, from the Premier Inn Hub on St Swithin’s Lane right up to the Ned.

In fact, that building – home not only to the hotel but also to several bars and restaurants – is the perfect example of the City’s rebirth. Designed in 1924 by Edwin Lutyens (hence ‘Ned’), it was originally the headquarters of the Midland Bank. The counters on which you transacted your business are now where you eat, the bank vault downstairs is now a private members’ club, and one of the original pieces of furniture still in place is the set of wooden lockers where senior staff stored their top hats. No mere bowlers for them.

The nearby Bloomberg building, meanwhile, keeps a foot in both camps, business and leisure. Specially commissioned as the European HQ of the financial media company, its 10,000 tonnes of Derbyshire sandstone are the largest stone project in the City since St Paul’s. It occupies the site where the Romans built their Temple of Mithras. During construction Bloomberg unearthed 14,000 Roman artefacts – dice, sandals, combs, even the City’s first ever written record of a transaction – some of which are now displayed in an area on the ground floor. The Temple itself has been restored in the basement. Both are open (free of charge) to the public. Throw in the bars and restaurants that occupy the structure at street level, and Bloomberg pretty well encapsulates the City’s past, present and future.

When Michael Bloomberg opened the building in 2017, he drew attention to its open-plan design, in which he had ‘always been a big believer… Walls just get in the way of communicating and working together.’ This notion, while a recent introduction to offices themselves, has always been the guiding principle of the City as a whole. Lloyd’s of London was originally a coffee house where people swapped information, and the area’s winding alleyways meant you were often bumping into friends with whom you could trade gossip. Even the design of its pubs gave London the edge over continental competitors, according to Peter Rees, the City’s chief planning officer for three decades until 2014: ‘In a Paris café you sit at a table to get served, whereas in a London pub everybody stands up, which means you’re much closer together. This is great for overhearing conversations, if you’re careful and clever. And that’s very valuable, because you can take that back to the office, put two and two together and make some money.’

‘Maybe 1,800 years from now,’ said Michael Bloomberg in that 2017 speech, ‘Londoners will discover the remains of this building, just as the Temple of Mithras was discovered here. By then, they may consider the Bloomberg Terminal as primitive as the tools that we now display in the Roman temple.’ Perhaps. What’s certain is that the Square Mile is set to maintain its genius for adapting. When it comes to change, the sky’s the limit.

SNP councillor in ‘new Scot’ row quits

The SNP exodus continues. Only hours after Lisa Cameron MP defected to the Tories, nationalist councillor Kairin van Sweeden has now quit too after being accused of racism. The spat broke out with Labour colleague Deena Tissera after van Sweeden suggested her fellow councillor was unaware of the bedroom tax as, er, a ‘new Scot’. Blood and soil nationalism? So much for progressive…

Tissera claims that the jibe was used in the context of suggesting she ‘had just come off a boat’, penning a furious letter to First Minister Humza Yousaf and his chief executive and former spin doctor Murray Foote. The comments ‘shocked me’, wrote the Labour representative, ‘and shocked the council’:

The innuendo of her comments were that I had just come off the boat and as a new Scot – her words not mine – I am not as Scottish as others and I did not understand Scotland like her and the SNP group, this being despite the SNP council leader being of French dissent and myself holding a United Kingdom passport.

So much for an entente cordiale.

Van Sweeden later apologised for her ‘clumsy’ comments while Yousaf said it spoke to ‘the unconscious bias and discrimination that people hold and we all have to challenge ourselves’. ‘We all have it,’ he added.

Just coincidence then it always seems to be the SNP caught up in these sorts of rows…