2015 general election

Tuesday

Ed West

Some advice to people angered by the election: add some Tories on Facebook

My father recently passed away, and the stories people inevitably tell of the dead brought back memories of childhood. As a small boy I remember Sunday lunches that culminated with my IRA-supporting godmother storming out after dad had said something especially offensive about Ireland. But she’d be back the following month and all was forgotten. Another of dad’s lunchtime friends, I remember, had the honour of being one of just 12 Englishmen to fight in the Spanish Civil War – for Franco. One crony, who I mainly remember smelling of whisky and offering my brother and me £50 if we learned Gaelic, had brought a Red Army Faction terrorist to

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

Labour lost the working-class vote a long time ago

What’s Labour’s problem? Following its fantastic drubbing at the polls, the most common answer to that question is that the party has for too long ignored its traditional base: working-class voters. Among media Labourites in particular, those currently writing emotionally unhinged articles about how isolated they feel in this cruel new Britain — bless ’em — this has become the go-to excuse for Labour’s rubbishness in recent years. Yes, there’s the issue of Tory-backing Rupert Murdoch’s stranglehold on people’s mushy minds, they say, revealing their disdain for tabloid readers. And there’s the apparently irresistible lure of the Tories’ politics of fear, which they believe ensnared a dumb electorate, once again

Sebastian Payne

Jim Messina interview: how the pollsters got it wrong and why Labour lost

Jim Messina is the American elections guru who got the general election right. Hired by the Conservatives as a strategy adviser in 2013, the Tories hoped he would emulate Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election strategy. And so he did. Whereas British pollsters consistently missed that the Tories were moving into pole position, Messina’s internal numbers showed for weeks they were on course to be the largest party. Speaking to The Spectator from Washington, D.C, he reveals that he was not at all surprised when the BBC exit poll showed the Tories were going to trounce Labour. ‘We predicted 312 seats that morning to Lynton [Crosby] and 316 was right in line with

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

It’s not just pollsters. David Cameron has also confounded economists with his jobs miracle

David Cameron realised rather late on that the job miracle, rather than George Osborne’s dubious claims about deficit reduction, was the main economic boast of the last few years. And rightly: he is the first Prime Minister in the history of these islands to have presided over the creation of 1,000 jobs a day. His detractors argue that this numbers thing is simply a function of immigration. That of the 2 million jobs he boasted about creating, 1m of them are foreign-born workers. This is broadly correct (below). But let’s look at unemployment as a share of the workforce. This time last year, where did the economic forecasters think it would go? The answer comes in the blue

Monday

James Forsyth

No Cabinet job for Grant Shapps

The party chairman in a general election winning campaign can normally expect a plum job as a reward, especially when that victory was against the odds. Tonight, though, Grant Shapps finds himself not in the Cabinet but a Minister of State at the Department of International Development. Shapps’ treatment is, at first, puzzling. After all, the Team 2015 network that he created appears to have done a decent job in neutralising the supposed advantage that Labour’s ground operation was meant to give it But those around the Tory leader, say that David Cameron simply became fed up with the odd allegations that kept popping up about Shapps. So, the fairness—or

Steerpike Steerpike

Winner of the Guardian’s election sweepstake finds victory isn’t sweet

Mr S previously reported that there were plans to donate the Guardian‘s election sweepstake to a foodbank. The decision was made after the organisers assumed that none of their employees could have possibly correctly guessed that there would be a Conservative majority. Now, word reaches Steerpike that the matter didn’t stop there. In fact, one employee at Guardian HQ was so bold as to reply saying that they had in fact come close to guessing the result, with an estimate of 324 Conservative seats and 227 Labour seats (the final result being 331 to the Tories and 232 to Labour). Not everyone at the publication was willing to accept this person’s victory and instead it was suggested that they ought

The Spectator

As it happened: post-election Cabinet reshuffle

Welcome to The Spectator’s coverage of David Cameron’s post-election reshuffle. Here are the latest appointments along with analysis. Key appointments: New appointments: Michael Gove (Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor), Sajid Javid (Business Secretary), Amber Rudd (Energy and Climate Change Secretary), Greg Clark (Communities and Local Government Secretary), David Mundell (Scotland Secretary), Greg Hands (Chief Secretary to the Treasury), Mark Harper (Chief Whip), Chris Grayling (Leader of the House of Commons), Matt Hancock (Cabinet Office Minister and Paymaster General), Priti Patel (Minister of State for Employment), Anna Soubry (Minister of State for Small Business), Oliver Letwin (Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster), Boris Johnson (Political Cabinet), Robert Halfon (Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party), Ros Altmann (Pensions Minister), John Hayes  (Minister of

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

How David Cameron can unite the Tories behind his One Nation conservatism

The Cabinet reshuffle is now underway, with IDS back in welfare and Michael Gove as Justice Secretary, with a brief to sort out the Human Rights Agenda mess. So David Cameron is opening a new stage in his leadership – and one that moves beyond the weird world of Tory factionalism. I’m hoping that the One Nation conservatism he spoke about after his triumph last week will now become the theme of his leadership. And that, with this reshuffle, he will start with One Party conservatism. Uniting the party is easier than it sounds – he just has to persuade diehards on both sides that the war is over. They’re still

Sunday

The Spectator

Dan Jarvis: why I won’t run as Labour leader (and why we lost)

Excerpts from his article in The Times today. Do read the whole thing (here). “I won’t be putting my name forward in the coming leadership contest. It’s not the right time for my family. My eldest kids had a very tough time when they lost their mum [in 2011] and I don’t want them to lose their dad. I need some space for them, my wife and our youngest child right now, and I wouldn’t have it as leader. In Scotland, [Labour has] been all but wiped out. We were also rejected across large parts of England. Put London to one side and more people have walked on the moon

Saturday

Sebastian Payne

There was one pollster who predicted a Conservative victory: Jim Messina

The shock election result has resulted in a lot of finger pointing. Why did the pollsters not see a Tory victory on the horizon? Was Labour deluded in thinking they had any chance of making it into government? Judging from conversations I’ve had with Conservatives, those inside the party weren’t particularly certain about getting the most seats either, never mind a majority. The leadership campaigns were even prepped for a contest soon after May 7. But there was one man who did see a Tory victory coming: Jim Messina. The Obama guru and former White House deputy chief of staff was hired by the Tories for his data nuance and his

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

With 56 SNPs and just one Ukip MP, how can the Commons reflect the UK’s political will?

Firm, but unfair – that’s the motto of Westminster’s first-past-the-post voting system and Conservatives will today be raising a glass to it. But the House of Commons is now a very poor reflection of Britain’s political sympathies. It took just 25,970 voters to return an SNP politican to parliament. This compares 34,240 for a Tory and 40,280 for Labour. In the circumstances, the Tories needn’t moan so much about the boundaries: the system paid out for them pretty well. But the other parties? For a Scottish Conservative, the vote-to-seat ratio is an almighty 434,000 to 1. And if you think that’s bad, consider Scottish Labour: 707,147 voters are now represented by

Friday

James Forsyth

The reshuffle has begun – but the real excitement will happen on Monday

David Cameron has reappointed several of the most senior members of the government. George Osborne stays as Chancellor, Theresa May remains Home Secretary, Philip Hammond Foreign Secretary and Michael Fallon Defence Secretary. Indeed, the only change is Osborne taking over William Hague’s old First Secretary of State title. This is formal recognition that Osborne will, in effect, be the deputy Prime Minister of this Tory majority government. We are told to expect the rest of the reshuffle on Monday. There’ll be particular interest in who Cameron chooses to be his chief whip, a role that takes on particular importance with this small majority. There’s also the question of what Cameron

The Spectator

Cabinet reshuffle: George Osborne, Theresa May, Michael Fallon and Philip Hammond remain in their posts

David Cameron has ‘reshuffled’ his Cabinet. George Osborne has been re-appointed as Chancellor, and will also be First Secretary of State, as were William Hague and Peter Mandelson. The title implies that he is the most senior minister.  Theresa May will remain as Home Secretary. Philip Hammond will also remain in his role as Foreign Secretary, and Michael Fallon will keep his job as Defence Secretary.

Sebastian Payne

The final 2015 general election results

All of the results of the 2015 general election are in and we have a result: the Conservatives have a major of 12 seats. Here is a breakdown of the results for each of the parties: [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/PifSa/index.html”] And a few other figures you might find interesting: Turnout was 66.1 per cent, up from 65.1 per cent in 2010 19.4 per cent of MPs in the new parliament will be female, up from 15.8 per cent in 2010 Counting will begin tomorrow for 9,000 council elections in England

Sebastian Payne

Listen: The Spectator’s verdict on the 2015 general election

In our final podcast special of the 2015 general election, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss the astonishing results and what we can expect from David Cameron’s new Conservative government. Are we finally going to see the unrestrained Cameron? Who is already limbering up to replace Ed Miliband as Labour leader? And what will the SNP and Liberal Democrats do next? You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer or iPhone every week, or you can use the player below:

Steerpike Steerpike

BBC mistake SNP MP for Nicola Sturgeon’s husband

Given that staff at the BBC have been providing rolling election coverage, it’s understandable that they may be rather tired. Even so, Mr S was surprised to see that BBC veteran Huw Edwards described an SNP MP and Nicola Sturgeon as Scotland’s power couple. Speaking over footage of Sturgeon walking alongside Patrick Grady, the recently appointed SNP MP for Glasgow North, Edwards mistook Grady for Sturgeon’s husband Peter Murrell. While both may be lacking in the hair department, there are a few years’ difference between the two: Happily, Edwards realised his mistake while on air and performed a swift u-turn, apologising for the mix-up. Surely it’s time for the BBC to give Edwards an election recess?

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

The biggest loser of the night? Russell Brand

Forget Vince Cable. Forget, if you can, Ed Balls (and I know that’s hard, because what a joyous result that was). Expel from your mind the image of Nick Clegg crying into his cornflakes this morning while texting his old pals in the Euro-oligarchy to see if they will give him a new plush job that involves no contact with pesky plebs. For last night there was an even bigger loser than those guys. Russell Brand. Or ‘Rusty Rockets’, as his politics-packed Twitterfeed has it. Rusty being the operative word, for now we know that the much-hyped ability of slebs like Brand to sway public sentiment is in a serious

Steerpike Steerpike

Liberal Democrats face soaring fines for failing to win enough votes

Oh dear. Not only have the Liberal Democrats only won eight seats so far compared to the 56 taken in 2010, many candidates face losing their deposit. If a candidate fails to win five per cent of the vote in their desired constituency then they are subject to a £500 fine. Unfortunately the Liberal Democrats have had many candidates do exactly that. So much so that the Twitter account LibDem Deposits has been set up just to keep a tally of their fines: It started off modestly: Then spiralled: The account is now reporting that the current total of fines is an enormous £157,000. This would mean that out of the 631 Liberal Democrat candidates that

Sebastian Payne

Exclusive: David Cameron tells CCHQ staffers ‘this is the sweetest victory of them all’

After a very good night of results, David Cameron addressed party staffers at Conservative HQ in Westminster this morning. A clip of the Prime Minister’s victory speech has made its way to Coffee House. You can watch what Cameron said below: Exclusive: David Cameron’s victory speech to CCHQ staffers this morning #ge2015 #conservative https://t.co/nKtdhBVxr7 — Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) May 8, 2015 Here is the text of part of what Cameron told the gathered party staffers, all of whom appear to be a very jubilant mood: ‘..to be with you guys and say thank you, you are an amazing team. I’m not an old man but I remember casting a vote in ’87

The Spectator

As it happened: 2015 general election results

Welcome to The Spectator’s live coverage of the 2015 general election results. We provided results and analysis overnight and throughout the day. You can read all the coverage below. Key points: David Cameron remains PM —He has won a majority and has visited Buckingham Palace for an audience with the Queen. The Conservatives have won 331 seats. In an exclusive revealed by The Spectator, Cameron told Conservative HQ staffers this morning that ‘this is the sweetest victory of them all’. Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage have resigned as leaders of their parties. SNP has swept Scotland — The SNP now have 56 MPs in Scotland, while the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats each have one.