Barack obama

Karl Rove’s a believer

I’m indebted to John Rentoul for drawing my attention to this report of a talk given by Karl Rove to mega donors at the Republican National Convention. Rove is an advisor to American Crossroads, a Republican fundraising organisation; and, having been one of Dubya’s chiefs, he remains a vital strategic voice in the party. He explained how Mitt Romney might win: “’The people we’ve got to win in this election, by and large, voted for Barack Obama,’ Rove said, in a soothing, professorial tone, explaining why the campaign hadn’t launched more pointed attacks on the president’s character. ‘If you say he’s a socialist, they’ll go to defend him. If you

How the forecasters could fail for the 2012 presidential election

The really curious thing about this year’s US presidential election is that it looks set to defy all political forecasts. While the most respected political science models have predicted victory for Mitt Romney, polls have consistently suggested otherwise. Political science and predictive models seldom receive much attention in the UK but they enjoy a strong tradition in the US. And they normally get it right. Most spectacularly, the University of Colorado’s forecasting model in 2000 successfully predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. Since its inception in 1980, the University of Colorado’s forecasting model has successfully predicted the results of the last eight

Paul Ryan and the Audacity of Seriousness – Spectator Blogs

If Paul Ryan looked and sounded like the tyro lawyer in a John Grisham movie delivering his first big courtroom speech then that’s because, in a way, he was just that kind of rookie performing upon the biggest stage of his life. Happily he had Matt Scully on his team so there was reason to think Ran’s speech would be well-crafted at least. And it was. Scully put lipstick on Sarah Palin four years ago, writing a speech that hoodwinked us all for a time. He had a hefty hand in Ryan’s too. Not that Ryan is another Palin, you understand. Even so striking the correct balance between substance and

Rape is rape and abortion is abortion. Except when they’re not. – Spectator Blogs

Way back in my debating days at Trinity College, Dublin we knew you could guarantee large crowds and impressively  – that is, pleasingly – bad-tempered debates twice a year. These were the annual debates on Northern Ireland and abortion. And they really were annual fixtures during which, for years on end, the same arguments were deployed with the same passion and no-one’s views were ever changed by anything they heard. In those days it was usually pretty clear who the bad guys were too. In the case of abortion it was anyone speaking as a representative of the Society for the Protection of the Unborn Child or, more generally, anyone

Is Barack Obama a Tory? – Spectator Blogs

At The American Conservative, Noah Millman argues that Barack Obama’s administration is the kind of small-c conservative leadership Thomas Friedman and other so-called centrists have been asking for: [T]he Obama Administration has been a quintessentially small-”c” conservative one, in that it has tried its best to preserve the status quo in just about every area. Its health care plan aimed to achieve universality with minimal disruption to existing insurance arrangements (which is why it was a good deal for insurance companies). Its response to the financial crisis was centered on securing the financial position of the large banks. Its response to the recession centered on the combination of tax cuts

Sinophobia, the last acceptable racism

The Chinese have excelled at London 2012, much to the annoyance of their Western rivals. In this week’s issue of the Spectator, Ross Clark argues that the claims against swimmer Ye Shiwen reflect irrational suspicion of her country. Here is an edited version of Ross’s article (you can read the full version here): The story of London 2012 has been that of a country which was once an underachiever in the Olympics but which, through sheer hard work on the part of its athletes, has hauled itself to the top of the medals tables, producing in the process one of the most dramatic world records in Olympic history. I refer,

Paul Ryan, the right choice

Congressman Paul Ryan (R – Wisconsin) has not courted much of a profile outside America, so I doubt many CoffeeHousers will be familiar with him. But rest assured: he is an excellent choice for vice-president. Here’s why. The 42-year-old is not a neophyte, having served in the House of Representatives for 13 years. He has cross-party appeal: he represents a Democratic district that he nonetheless has won comfortably on seven occasions. Ryan knows how to listen to and speak to Democrats. This is a priceless skill for a Republican running for the second highest office in the land. Two traits define him: his striking command of public policy (especially on

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan’s big idea

Mitt Romney has broken the habit of a lifetime and taken a risk. But it’s an intelligent risk. That at least is the view of some commentators on hearing confirmation that Romney has appointed Paul Ryan as his running mate. Niall Ferguson tweeted earlier: ‘Romney gets it right with Ryan. Now this election gets serious. It’s a straight fight between radical fiscal reform and Europeanization.’ David Frum makes a similar point (albeit with a clear note of scepticism) in a blog post for the Daily Beast: ‘This election—which Romney once intended to make a referendum on Obama’s record—will now become a referendum on Paul Ryan’s bold budget ideas.’ Frum provides

Mitt Romney picks Paul Ryan

Mitt Romney will announce his choice of running mate at one o’clock this afternoon, but members of the campaign have already confirmed his identity: Congressman Paul Ryan. I reported yesterday that the Republican right has been pressuring Romney to pick Ryan, and it looks like he’s bowed to that pressure. Despite having served as chairman of the House Budget Committee for the past year and a half – and his high profile role in budget negotiations – Ryan is still relatively unknown. A new CNN poll shows that only 27 per cent of Americans have a favourable view of the Congressman and 19 per cent an unfavourable one, which means

Invented racial ugliness

I wasn’t especially impressed by Mitt Romney’s speech to the NAACP (nor, frankly, by the way Romney was booed, though that’s a different matter) but at least I wasn’t driven demented by it. The same, alas, cannot be said for poor Michael Tomasky who sees something rotten lurking in the dark heart of Romney’s, er, standard stump speech: Oh please. This is guff. Guff on stilts, in fact. It’s true that being booed by the NAACP won’t hurt Romney with the wilder, nastier corners of the Republican base. Nevertheless, to presume Romney set this speech up so as to perform and benefit from this kind of trick shot is to

Alex Massie

The paranoid centre and life in the American fever-swamp

Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, told Fox News Sunday last weekend: ‘The fact is, it’s not a question of whether can Mitt Romney win. The statement is, Mitt Romney has to win for the sake of the very idea of America. Mitt Romney has to win for liberty and freedom. We have to put an end to this Barack Obama presidency before it puts an end to our way of life in America.’ There you have it, the conservative movement’s flammable combination of hysteria, hyperbole and cynicism in a single soundbite. Verily, American politics has become an ugly thing, dominated by boors and scoundrels animated by a

Romney’s pitch for the new America

Tim Stanley says Mitt Romney’s speech to the NAACP’s annual convention was his campaign’s first ‘moment of magic’. Up to a point. It’s true, as Stanley observes, that Republicans once had a better record on civil rights than Democrats (it was once the Party of Lincoln after all). True too that Mitt’s father George, governor of Michigan, was one of those northern Republicans who agitated for decency before it was popular or politically-expedient to do so. Romney has a story to tell here and it’s not a bad tale either. The speech had two chief aims. First, Romney wins pundit-points for being ‘brave’ enough to speak to a largely-hostile audience.

Obama’s Romney money war

Barack Obama’s latest email appeal for campaign funds – entitled ‘we could lose if this continues’ – doesn’t seem altogether sincere. The president’s re-election team wants more money, of course – who doesn’t? – and they must be concerned by the fact that Romney and his plutocratic committees are beating them in the fund-raising stakes. As Obama says, ‘we can win a race in which the other side spends more than we do. But not this much more’. Yet anyone with half a brain can see what Obama and his strategists are trying to say (again): Romney is a super-rich agent of the super-rich. He represents big business, not ordinary

Obamacare and the Supreme Court: Partisan goose for the partisan gander

Like the French Revolution it remains much too soon to say what the consequences of the United States Supreme Court’s decision to uphold Obamacare will be. Except this: defeat would surely have been a catastrophe for Mr Obama. The more one considers John Roberts’ pivotal argument, however, the more it seems as cunning as it is undoubtedly neat. There is something for everyone in his judgement and something for everyone to fear too. Roberts, who appears to have changed his mind, produced an elegant solution: the federal government lacks the power to force citizens to purchase health insurance but it may tax them if they don’t. So Obamacare survives and

The Obamacare battle is far from won

The US Supreme Court’s decision to uphold ‘Obamacare’ and the so-called ‘individual mandate’ will have brought a little relief to President Obama. If his administration’s hardest-fought legislative victory had been struck down by the high court, the president’s admirers would have started to wonder whether he had achieved anything at all. But Obama and the Democrats will know that their healthcare battle is far from won. Republicans have pledged to carry on trying to repeal ‘Obamacare’ in its entirety. And there are bound to be all sorts of complicated and tedious state-by-state legal challenges over various technicalities before the most of the law is brought into force in 2014.  And

Will Romney win?

In this week’s issue, the great Robert Emmett Tyrrell, Jr. makes a bold prediction about the upcoming American presidential elections: ‘The Republican nominee will come out of the Republican convention in August with a full head of steam. Boosted by years of growing strength and aided by the independents’ concern for Obama’s huge deficits and slow growth, he will barrel through the autumn and on to victory in November. Obama will soon be back in Blue Island Illinois, creating his own presidential museum.’ Don’t believe him? Look at the economy. Only a few months ago, America’s financial health seemed to be improving. Team Obama was lecturing European conservatives about the

Will Wintour give up her wardrobe?

Steerpike’s transatlantic cousins at the New York Post’s Page Six are stirring up the rumours (again) that Vogue editor Anna Wintour is set to become Obama’s Ambassador to the Court of St James.  Coincidentally, the fashion supremo has been pulling her weight for Obama’s fundraising. Though vaguely denying the appointment, she is not exactly doing to much to quell the speculation — apparently she’s very happy in her current job. Patrick Wintour, Anna’a little brother and the Political Editor of the Guardian, tells me he does not ‘think she wants to give up the wardrobe allowance yet.’

Clinton hurts Obama

Bill Clinton — the man who was such a thorn in Barack Obama’s side during the 2008 Democratic primaries — has become one of the current President’s most important supporters this time around. All the more significant, then, that Clinton has added his name to the list of Democrats who have voiced concern at one of Team Obama’s attacks on Mitt Romney. For a while now, the Obama campaign has been trying to make Romney’s investment career at Bain Capital, which he founded, as a reason for voters not to back the presumptive Republican nominee. They’ve hit him with the stories of workers who lost their jobs at companies taken

Matthew Parris

I hope our Jubilee Queen, unlike the last, outlives a hopeless foreign war

War in South Africa — the second Boer war — was already brewing by Queen Victoria’s Diamond Jubilee in 1897. Two years later it began. By the end of the century Britain was bogged down and struggling. On the Queen’s death in 1901 the unholy mess continued. In 1902 we were finally able to declare victory; but bloodied, shocked, shamed and considerably cut down to size. The whole campaign had been an ill-conceived, over-confident and grisly blunder. Even Kipling hated it. How could the numerical superiority and technical might of Britain’s armed forces be fought to cruel draw by a smaller band of ill-equipped zealots, as light on their feet

Romney’s Donald Trump problem

When Obama brilliantly skewered Donald Trump at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner last year, you might’ve thought the billionaire would slink off the political field. But, to the great glee of Team Obama, ‘The Donald’ is still keen to keep playing. Ever since Trump’s endorsement of Mitt Romney back in February, the Democrats have been attacking Romney by association (‘They both like firing people’, they said, tying Romney’s ‘I like being able to fire people’ gaffe to Trump’s famous Apprentice catchphrase).   And yesterday, the Obama campaign put out an ad attacking Romney for not denouncing Trump’s claims that the President wasn’t born in the US, contrasting it with the