Brexit

Thank goodness for doses of statistical reality

How did we mislay half a trillion pounds? Revised data from the Office for National Statistics has just reduced the UK’s ‘net international investment position’ from a surplus of £469 billion to a deficit of £22 billion. Downing Street dismissed this as ‘a technical revision’ — and in truth it’s not as bad it sounds, since what it tells us is that we own fewer foreign assets, and foreigners own more British assets, than had previously been recorded. Does national pride not attach to the idea that the rest of the world sees us as an investment safe haven? So why worry? Well, past miscounting apart, actual current trends in

Portrait of the Week – 19 October 2017

Home Theresa May, the Prime Minister, and David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, went to Brussels and had dinner with Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission and the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier. They came up with a joint statement that ‘efforts should accelerate over the months to come’. But by this week’s meeting of the European Council, Britain was deemed not to have done enough about the price it would pay to allow the EU to discuss trade matters. No great hope was held out that it would be any better by the next meeting in December. Keir Starmer, Labour’s Brexit spokesman, said: ‘There is no way we would

Steerpike

Watch: Alastair Campbell’s Brexit ding-dong with John Redwood

Alastair Campbell has made his views on Brexit loud and clear to anyone who will listen. Tony Blair’s former spin doctor is not happy about Britain leaving the EU and he wants us all to know it. It’s something of a shame then that he doesn’t give others who don’t agree with him about Brexit the opportunity to have their say. Cracking set-to between Alistair Campbell and John Redwood over the WTO. pic.twitter.com/veUDBFCDTy — Nick Hilton (@nickfthilton) October 19, 2017 Campbell popped up on Sky News this afternoon to discuss why he thought walking away with no Brexit deal would be a mistake. But when it came to Tory MP John

No deal is a good deal

So Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker enjoyed a ‘broad and constructive exchange’ during their working dinner in Brussels. Last time the Prime Minister broke bread with the President of the European Commission — at Downing Street six months ago — Juncker dubbed her ‘deluded’ and complained about the food. Despite better mood music, this latest supper summit was hardly positive. European Union negotiators still refuse to discuss trade or end the divisive impasse over citizens’ rights until Britain agrees to pay a stonking ‘divorce bill’ — upwards of £40-£50 billion. All the while, the Article 50 clock is ticking. The prospect of a ‘no deal’ Brexit has lately loomed into

James Forsyth

Brexit can strengthen the Union

There will be no chance of the United Kingdom making a success of Brexit if Scotland votes to break up the kingdom. And although the immediate danger of that happening appears to have passed — the Scottish National Party lost ground in the general election and Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t speak anywhere near as much about independence nowadays — this could change if Brexit is mishandled. When Britain leaves the EU then Scotland leaves too — those are the rules, and Spain, which is not too keen on the idea of secession, will insist upon them. So Brexit in itself will make Scottish independence an even bigger risk. It will knock

Lost in translation | 19 October 2017

If Michel Barnier and David Davis, in their regular dialogue of the deaf, seem to be inhabiting different mental universes, that is because they are. The British and French have often found each other particularly difficult to negotiate with. Of course, Barnier represents not France but the EU, and he has a negotiating position, the notorious European Council Guidelines, on which the veteran British diplomat Sir Peter Marshall has recently commented that ‘I have never seen, nor heard tell of, a text as antipathetic to the principle of give and take which is generally assumed to be at the heart of negotiation among like-minded democracies’. But, as a senior German

Digby Jones should be on the Brexit negotiating team

Ah yes, our top Brexit negotiating team… Sack Boris! Sack Spreadsheet Phil! Don’t bother sacking Theresa because she’s already had the real P45 from her colleagues as well as the joke one from the prankster; she just hasn’t been asked to leave the building yet. That leaves David Davis as the last man standing but there’ll be clamour for him to go too if deadlock persists, as seems likely despite this week’s talk of ‘acceleration’. So who should we send to the table next? Last week I had the fun of chairing an audience with (Lord) Digby Jones, the irrepressible former CBI chief and trade minister, whose latest book Fixing

The government needs to know what kind of Brexit deal it wants

Theresa May needs to invite the Cabinet down to Chequers to thrash out the government’s position on Brexit, I say in The Sun this morning. Remarkably, the Cabinet have never had a proper discussion about what the final deal with the EU should be. One senior Cabinet Minister tells me that ‘The million dollar question is the trade-off between regulatory compliance and market access and we haven’t had that discussion yet’. This failure to talk is frustrating Cabinet Ministers, breeding distrust and contributing to the current break down of discipline within the government. As the policy isn’t decided yet, ministers keep trying to push it this way or that. At

The embarrassing role of economists on Brexit

Just when the Brexit talks were beginning to look humiliating for the UK, the position has begun to be reversed. The absurd EU negotiating framework has stretched the patience of the British side to close to breaking point and preparations are at last being made for the possibility of no deal with the EU. Australians with decades of experience in trade negotiations with the EU tell us that the EU always bargains ferociously and that the only sensible response is a tough one. A negotiating bottom-line of no-deal should have been the British position from the start but going along with the EU’s self-imposed constraints has at least exposed just

Portrait of the week | 12 October 2017

Home Theresa May, the Prime Minister, when asked by Iain Dale in an interview on LBC: ‘If there was a Brexit vote now, would you vote Brexit?’ repeatedly refused to say. Earlier, briefing the House of Commons on Brexit, she said that the country must prepare for ‘every eventuality’. The government published two papers on trade and customs arrangements that envisaged ways by which Britain could thrive as an ‘independent trading nation’ even if no trade deal were reached with Brussels. Mrs May admitted that during a transitional period, the European Court of Justice would retain jurisdiction. Asked five times if the government had received legal advice on whether the

Martin Vander Weyer

The Bombardier dispute leaves Britain at risk of looking like a powerless minor player

This is an extract from the ‘Any Other Business’ column in this week’s Spectator.  ‘Bombardier exposes post-Brexit realities’ was the FT’s headline after the Trump administration imposed a 300 per cent tariff on sales of the Canadian manufacturer’s C Series aircraft into the US, threatening 4,000 Bombardier jobs in Northern Ireland. Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar weighed in: ‘There’s been a lot of talk of a new trade deal between the UK and the US and how great that would be for the UK, but we are now talking about the possibility of a trade war.’ The truth of this story, however, is that it tells us little about prospects for the

James Forsyth

The plots thicken

‘Worst week ever’ is one of those phrases that journalists are, perhaps, too quick to use. Alastair Campbell once quipped that if you added up all Tony Blair’s worst weeks, you got a full year. The real worry for the Tories, however, is not that last week was Theresa May’s worst ever, but that it represented the new normal. Even inside Downing Street, there are those who worry that leadership plotting and the like will continue until Mrs May leaves the building. They worry that while they are strong enough to repel the plotters — as they did so effectively this time — she isn’t powerful enough to take back

Soap opera

Previously on Giulio Cesare… English Touring Opera’s new season caters cannily to the box-set generation by chopping Handel’s Egyptian power-and-politics opera in two, playing each half on consecutive evenings as edge-of-your-seat instalments in a sort of baroque House of Cards. Will Cleopatra outwit her wicked brother? Will she and Cesare ever get together? Will Sesto ever stop dithering and do the deed? Tune in tomorrow night to find out. If that sounds like the kind of pacy, racy entertainment you’ve always longed for in the opera house, be warned; this is Giulio Cesare: the Director’s Cut, doggedly and absolutely complete, down to every last recitative, aria and interlude. By way

Why a nation’s productivity isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ matter

The outlook for UK productivity is hardly encouraging. The Office for Budget Responsibility is suggesting only anaemic growth over the next five years while a recent survey by the ONS points to the lag between the UK and most of its G7 peers. Before we lament our lot, it is worth considering some of the differences between the UK labour market and those of its contemporaries. UK labour force participation is very high and unemployment is low. This would illustrate that the UK has been successful in getting as many people as possible into productive employment, which is not the case in most European countries.   The main reason for

Steerpike

Grauniad’s sub-editing fail

Oh dear. Much excitement today among the commentariat over Rafael Behr’s op-ed in the Grauniad. The Guardian columnist says that for ‘hardline Brexiters, the lure of the cliff edge is irresistible’. Unfortunately for Behr, it’s his byline – rather than his words – that’s receiving the most attention: Perhaps the Fleet Street doom-mongers were right when they said newspaper sub-editors’ days are numbered…

Watch: Damian Green says Britain would be better if Remain had won

Oh dear. After Theresa May refused to say three times in an interview with Iain Dale on LBC whether she would back Leave in a second EU referendum, the Prime Minister has provoked the ire of some in the Brexit camp. But Brexiteers can take heart that May’s comments are positively eurosceptic compared with those of her First Secretary of State. Damian Green has been touring the television studios this evening to talk about the government’s race disparity audit. Also on the agenda is Brexit. First, the former Remain campaigner told Channel 4 News that he would vote Remain if another EU referendum was held. Now, he has just appeared on

Theresa May concedes that the European Court of Justice will have a role during the Brexit transition

Most of Theresa May’s statement today was simply a reiteration of what she had said in Florence. But we did get clarity on one crucial point. In answer to a question from Jacob Rees-Mogg, Theresa May explicitly accepted that the European Court of Justice would have a role during the transition. She said that she hoped it would be replaced at some point by a new dispute resolution mechanism. But at the beginning of the transition, the ECJ will be the arbiter. Now, there will be Brexiteers who don’t like this; Jacob Rees-Mogg’s question was seeking an assurance that this would not be the case. But if the transition is

James Forsyth

Theresa May should appoint a Secretary of State for No Deal

The Brexit talks collapsing would be a bad thing. It shouldn’t be the aim of the UK government, but it should be something that the government is prepared for. After all, there is a non-negligible chance of this happening. Compounding this is that the United Kingdom can’t credibly threaten to walk away from the table unless it is actually ready to do so. Without the ability to walk away, Theresa May will be left having to accept whatever the EU offers. It’s evident that Britain is not currently prepared for a no deal scenario. There needs to be a massive push if the UK is to get itself anywhere near

Alan Duncan’s Brexit tantrum

Alan Duncan caused a stir on Tuesday when he claimed that one of the reasons for the Brexit vote was working class voters throwing ‘a bit of a tantrum’ over immigration. It’s fair to say that the government minister’s comments have gone down like a cup of cold sick with Brexiteers. But is Duncan really one to lecture on Brexit tantrums? Mr S recalls that Duncan was accused of throwing a tantrum of his own during the EU referendum. After Duncan declared himself a Remain-er, Vote Leave’s Matthew Elliott said the Conservative MP had planned to back Brexit but switched to the other side at the last minute after his request