Brexit

The Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) makes a point in its Fiscal Risk Report today that ought to be obvious and yet which hardly ever seems to feature in debate over the public finances and ‘austerity’. It is virtually certain that sooner or later the UK economy will suffer another recession which will cause tax receipts to sink, welfare payments to grow and so quickly reverse any progress that has been made in closing the deficit.       In fact, you can pencil in that recession for sooner rather than later. The risk of a recession in any five year period, calculates the OBR, is as high as one in two. And when

Last week it was Vince Cable trying to tell us that Brexit was depriving Wimbledon spectators of their strawberries – swiftly denied by the All England Club. This week it is the turn of pizza chain Franco Manca to try to scare us of the consequences of Brexit. Announcing the company’s results, chairman David Page said, in comments prominently reported in the pro-EU Financial Times: “The long-term Brexit impact is unknown. It is, however, already affecting the availability of skilled European restaurant staff”. In other words: your pizza is under threat from your silly vote to leave the EU. Brexit hasn’t appeared to hit the company’s bottom line, however. Revenue of

The Brexit divorce bill isn’t on the table yet but it’s already provoking plenty of debate – and quite a bit of anger. Figures bandied about have ranged from the tens of billions upwards, with some speculation the final demand could be as much as 100bn euros. Ministers have done their best to avoid being drawn on a figure which wouldn’t be acceptable, with David Davis coming closest by saying Britain will not pay 100bn. Now, Boris Johnson has waded in. The Foreign Secretary told the House of Commons that: “I think that the sums that I have seen … seem to me to be extortionate and I think go whistle is

I voted Remain last year for two reasons. First, however irritating I found some aspects of the EU, I could not vote for the chaos I believed would follow a Leave victory. From the accession of Theresa May to the night of the general election, that looked like an excess of pessimism; now it looks like wise foresight. The second prong was an analysis of my own and my neighbours’ economic circumstances: in what sense was EU membership actually making us worse off? In my own case, not at all; local shops, hospitality outlets and tourist attractions, likewise. Subsidised hill farmers and fatter farming cats on the flatlands? Not really,

Ken Loach is no fan of Brexit. The veteran filmmaker and Corbynista luvvie warned last year that the referendum was a ‘dangerous, dangerous moment’ for the country. Now, Loach is dishing out even more doom and gloom, saying that leaving the EU could mean bad news for the British film industry. Loach said that a messy Brexit deal might lead to directors thinking they would ‘not bother’ making films in Britain. Loach also said that if freedom of movement stops, life could get trickier for moviemakers. Mr S thinks that someone should tell Loach’s friend: Jeremy Corbyn. After all, the Labour leader has promised that freedom of movement will end after Brexit if he

It is a mark of Britain’s estrangement from the European Union – and, at least for now, the country’s diminished standing on the international stage – that although Theresa May attended a memorial service to Helmut Kohl at the weekend, she was not invited to speak. Of course there are hierarchies of closeness on such occasions, but there is something piercing about the manner in which what this country, and its leaders, have to say now has so little resonance.  Kohl’s death should have occasioned more commentary in this country than it has. By any reasonable estimation, he was a titan of modern European history. The picture of Kohl holding

Michael Gove: The DUP deal is good for the union The newly installed Environment Secretary Michael Gove took to Andrew Marr’s sofa today to defend the government’s deal with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland. Controversial for awarding the province an additional £1 billion, Gove rejected the idea that deal this amounted to a ‘bung’, and argued that far from dividing the country, the ‘confidence and supply’ deal would serve to strengthen the United Kingdom: Marr: Can we at least determine that there is not going to be another… large about of money paid to the DUP? Because [Sir Nicholas] MacPherson, the former Permanent Secretary to the Treasury said

People like Philip Hammond say that we must at all costs avoid a ‘cliff-edge’ in the Brexit negotiations. But the more dangerous cliff-edge is the political one. If, having voted to Leave, we do so in name but not in fact, the elites will have frustrated the ballot box, and faith in the democratic process will plunge to its death. This is Holmes versus Moriarty at the Reichenbach Falls. Just now, Moriarty has the upper hand. But remember that Holmes survived, because Conan Doyle had to revive him — by popular demand. This is an extract from Charles Moore’s Notes, which appears in this week’s Spectator

Jeremy Corbyn is ‘almost a proper chap’, says Nigel Farage, lauding the Labour leader for sacking frontbenchers who voted for a Commons motion seeking to keep Britain in the Single Market. That’s a policy that, one suspects, quite a few recent middle-class metropolitan converts to Corbynism would agree with. Perhaps Mr Farage’s praise will help them see that JC isn’t quite the prophet of pro-European liberalism some of his admirers have somehow managed to imagine him as.  The Farage praise will doubtless appall many Corbynistas, who see him as the antichrist, the nasty, xenophobic antithesis of their cuddly, inclusive and not-at-all anti-Semitic messiah. It shouldn’t, though, since Jeremy and Nigel have always had a