Brexit

Wednesday

Tom Goodenough

The PM boils his entire referendum campaign into a single word. But will it convince voters?

David Cameron has boiled down his entire EU referendum campaign into a single word: together. The Prime Minister made one of his final pitches to Britain on the Today programme just now. But despite doing his best to put forward the positive case for staying in, he still came unstuck on the age-old issue of migration. He was repeatedly quizzed on his net migration target to reduce numbers to the tens of thousands. We knew before that this is, to say the least, a tricky subject for Cameron. And he didn’t offer much in the way of substance to salve voters’ worries. Instead, when immigration came up, he flipped the

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Would a narrow win for ‘Leave’ be useful in getting a better post-Brexit deal?

In less than 24 hours, the polling booths will finally open. We’ve seen today the now familiar raft of letters from both sides calling on people to vote ‘Remain’ or back Brexit. 51 FTSE have signed a letter saying they think the UK should stay in the European Union. Whilst Tate and Lyle Sugars said Brexit would be the best way ahead for its business in a message to employees. But amidst this final push for votes, the polls show that tomorrow’s referendum will likely be an even race: the ‘What UK think’s’ poll of polls has ‘Remain’ on 51 per cent and ‘Leave’ on 49 per cent. So what

Steerpike Steerpike

Is it a case of Tim-Nice-But-Dim for Remain?

Another day, another Brexit poll. This time YouGov claim to have discovered what a name can tell you about someone’s voting tendency. If you’re called Sheila or Graham you’re most likely to vote Leave, whereas those by the name of Kathryn and Samantha are most likely to fall into the undecided category. However, the poll finding that caught Mr S’s eye relates to Remain. It claims that when it comes to men, those by the name of Tim are most likely to plump for In. So, is it a case of Tim-Nice-But-Dim for Remain? Harry Enfield’s Old Ardinian comic creation — a parody of pleasant yet intellectually challenged public schoolboys — said ‘yah to the euro’ back in 2002 (before admitting

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

Business holds the antidote to acts of voter insanity on both sides of the Atlantic

Good news: ‘My sources in the Gulf tell me they’re poised with big cash to buy into sterling, UK equities and property on any weakness,’ says an email from a reader who does business across the Middle East. Will the phenomenon I once called ‘the Curse of Qatar’ be the horse that pulls us out of the post-referendum quagmire and tramples the short-sellers? Might it even be strong enough to save the professional services firm, dependent on inward investors, whose owner told me he expects to make 50 of his 180 staff redundant if the vote goes the wrong way? We have flirted with what the Washington Post called ‘an

Tuesday

Tom Goodenough

Coffee House shots: Who will triumph in tonight’s final TV showdown?

As many as eight million people are expected to tune into tonight’s BBC Brexit debate, where Boris Johnson, Sadiq Khan and Ruth Davidson will battle it out in their final attempt to win over voters ahead of the referendum. The last time Boris appeared in a TV debate, Remain’s ‘Operation batter Boris’ was mobilised in a misguided attempt to discredit the former Mayor of London. So can we expect more of the same tonight? On today’s Coffee House Shots, James Forsyth tells Fraser Nelson: ‘Ruth Davidson is a fierce debater. She is combative, she goes for people. It would be very surprising if she didn’t go for Boris. The one

Steerpike Steerpike

The Queen’s Brexit challenge to dinner guests: ‘give me three good reasons why Britain should be part of Europe’

Although the Sun were only recently found guilty of ‘significantly misleading’ its readers with its ‘Queen backs Brexit’ splash, it seems the red top was onto something after all. While the paper reported that Her Majesty had expressed Eurosceptic views at a private meeting prior to a referendum being on the table, it appears that she does still harbour doubts when it comes to the EU. The Queen’s biographer, Robert Lacey, reports that Her Majesty has been presenting her dinner guests with a special EU challenge of late. She has reportedly asked dinner companions: ‘Give me three good reasons why Britain should be part of Europe’. Lacey has suggested that the phrasing of the question means

Niall Ferguson

Take it from a divorcee: Brexit will cost you dear

I suppose there are such things as amicable divorces. Mine wasn’t. Like the First World War, it was fought for more than four years, and ended with the Treaty of Versailles (by which I mean that it imposed territorial losses and the payment of annual reparations for a very long time). Which brings me to Brexit, the ultimate divorce. Leave aside the arguments based on economics. Leave aside history, too. Instead, permit me to get personal. You want to get a divorce from Europe? Very well, let me explain what divorce is like. Now, I get how you feel. You’ve reached the point when you just can’t stand the EU

Simon Sebag Montefiore

Victoria Beckham: ‘The Euro-bureaucrats are destroying every bit of national identity’

Victoria Beckham has said today she wants Britain to remain a member of the European Union. But ‘Posh Spice’ hasn’t always been so keen on the EU. In this Spectator piece from December 1996, Victoria described how she thought the ‘Euro-bureaucrats are destroying every bit of national identity’. Here’s what she had to say in an interview with Simon Sebag Montefiore: Interview the Spice Girls, I thought. But the Spice Girls are interviewed all the time. My interview, however, would be different. I would ask only questions that I would ask Mr Major, Mr Blair, Mr Heseltine or any other politician. Only one thing worried me about this plan. What

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

David Beckham backs ‘Remain’. But his reasons why don’t make any sense

To be fair to David Beckham, he is at least slightly higher profile than some of the other ‘stars’ from the football world who have had their say on Brexit. And Michael Gove didn’t sound convincing when he traded off the news that ‘Becks’ had backed ‘Remain’ by saying John Barnes and Sol Campbell had done the opposite. In a post this morning, Beckham spelt out his reasons for wanting Britain to stay in the EU by suggesting he wants to ‘live in a vibrant and connected world where together as a people we are strong’. That kind of rhetoric, whilst apparently noble, tells us little. People from both sides

Ross Clark Ross Clark

What if we vote Remain… then still have a recession?

A vote to leave the EU would cause economic Armageddon. We know because David Cameron and George Osborne have told us so, claiming that there is a wide consensus among economists on the matter. But what if – as now seems increasingly likely – we vote to remain but then have a recession anyway? The Prime Minister and the Chancellor are very quick to quote economists when making the case for us to stay in the EU, saying we should listen to the experts. They would do well to listen to what the experts are saying about the chances of a recession.  A Wall Street Journal survey in May put

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Steve Hilton claims PM was told net migration target is ‘impossible’ whilst we’re in the EU

So long as the economy was at the top of the agenda, ‘Remain’ will have felt safe in the knowledge that ‘Leave’ could do little to win over the public’s trust. But today, the Prime Minister has his former aide and friend Steve Hilton to thank for bringing the issue of migration soaring back into the headlines. What’s particularly dangerous for the Government about what Steve Hilton had to say is his claim that the PM was directly told in 2012 that meeting the promise to bring net migration down to the ‘tens of thousands’ was impossible. Here’s what Steve Hilton told the Daily Mail: ‘We were told, directly and

Monday

Philip Sime

Frexit and Italexit? Support for the EU dwindles in France and Italy

Various freak political events—the unexpected Tory election victory, the rise of Ukip—have conspired to allow Britain to hold its referendum on the EU this week. But if the rest of Europe were asked, what would they say? The Berlin-based Bertelsmann Foundation commissioned a study of 11,000 people in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland to find out their attitudes towards Brexit and to the EU. Just 41 per cent of French and 54 per cent of Germans want us to stay. The Spanish are most keen for Britain to Remain, with 64 per cent opposing Brexit, followed by Poland with 61 per cent. But the survey also revealed that French and Italian referendums

Katy Balls Katy Balls

Jeremy Corbyn refuses to take the blame for a Brexit in lacklustre Sky debate

After finding himself accused of putting forward a half-hearted case for Remain, tonight Jeremy Corbyn had the chance to prove the naysayers wrong in his first — and final — live television debate of the referendum. Yet instead of making a passionate plea for In, Corbyn used the Sky News debate to raise some of his own reservations with the EU. While Corbyn admitted that he is not a ‘lover of the European Union’, he argued that it is better to stay and fight from within than to leave and be left with greater economic problems. However, it’s his answers dwelling on the EU’s flaws which are most likely to be remembered. While fielding questions from a studio audience of young voters, Corbyn was asked how he

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Coffee House shots: Have ‘Remain’ done enough to win?

We’re in the final days of campaigning before the country goes to the polls on Thursday. But what is the mood like in both the ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ camps? James Forsyth says on today’s Coffee House Shots podcast that he thinks the ‘Remain’ camp are feeling fairly confident. Speaking to Isabel Hardman, he says: ‘Remain are certainly more relaxed than they were this time last week. They feel that they have the economy front and centre. They are very encouraged by these polls which show people are concerned about the effect of Brexit on their personal finances. On the ‘Leave’ side, I think they feel that because this is so

Steerpike Steerpike

How Sayeeda Warsi duped The Times

Today The Times have splashed on the revelation that Baroness Warsi is defecting from Out to In as a result of the ‘hate and xenophobia’ peddled by Leave. Given that the paper have run the news on its front page, one could be forgiven for thinking that the Leave camp really are ‘in turmoil’ over the defection of a ‘leading Tory’. Only there is a small snag. Vote Leave say they were never aware she was a supporter, while Dan Hannan says Warsi declined his invitation for her to join the Leave campaign: When I invited Sayeeda Warsi to join the Leave campaign, she declined. Fair enough, obviously. But how is this a "defection"?

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Baroness Warsi defects to ‘Remain’: ‘Leave aren’t the kind of people I’d get on a night bus with’

Baroness Warsi hasn’t always been one to help out the Prime Minister when he’s in a spot of bother. But her high-profile defection from the Brexit camp to Remain will certainly have put a smile on David Cameron’s face this morning. It’s not so much that Warsi was an essential part of Vote Leave’s plans; the campaign have been keen to downplay Warsi’s importance today, saying in a tweet that ‘they weren’t aware she was ever part of the Vote Leave campaign’. Michael Fabricant, a leading Brexiteer has also questioned whether Warsi was ever involved in the first place, asking ‘Was she ever in Out?’ Whilst it’s true her involvement

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

A response to David Smith’s economic case for Remain

When it comes to making economics understandable, no one does it better that David Smith of the Sunday Times*. Today, he has written a emphatic endorsement of the case for the UK remaining in the EU. As a longstanding admirer of his work, a few points jumped out at me when reading it. Here they are. Britain’s economy is convalescing from the biggest financial shock in a century. A few years ago we were on the edge of the abyss. We live in the shadow of the crisis. One shock was careless: to impose another, self-inflicted one before we’re over it would be stupid. Yes, you can argue that now

Anthony Wells

Latest polls show a swing back to Remain

We are now in the final week of the referendum campaign and the swing back towards the status quo appears to be in full force. We at YouGov have published two polls this morning, one conducted for ITV’s Good Morning Britain between Wednesday and Thursday, and one conducted for the Sunday Times on Thursday and Friday. After the clear leads for Leave that polls were showing a week ago, both of our polls published today show the race coming back to neck-and-neck again: a two point Leave lead in the Good Morning Britain poll, a one point Remain lead in the Sunday Times poll. While there will be speculation about

Thursday

Peter Jones

Plato on the EU referendum

Our politicians, realising that the referendum campaign will be settled not by themselves under the usual parliamentary constraints but by the Twitter-maddened populace under no constraints at all, have decided to abandon any principles they may have and play the straight populist game. Plato well understood the behaviour and its consequences. In his Republic, he envisages a man in charge of a large and powerful animal who studies its moods and needs. He learns when to approach and handle it, when and why it is savage and gentle, the meaning of the various noises it makes and how to speak to it to annoy or calm it. He might then

Toby Young Toby Young

Who’s sabotaging my Leave campaign?

I’ve never been a great believer in karma. After all, in the absence of some kind of cosmic enforcer of karmic justice what guarantee is there that good deeds will be rewarded or bad deeds punished? Let’s not forget that Joseph Stalin was responsible for between 34 and 49 million deaths, depending on whose estimate you accept, yet died of natural causes in his own bed at the age of 73. Karma? What karma? But events of the past fortnight have caused me to revise my opinion. It’s all to do with the massive Vote Leave billboard outside my house in Acton, and an incident that occurred 42 years ago