Brexit

Saturday

James Forsyth

Will the Brexit deal get a majority?

The numbers will be tight today. As I say in The Sun this morning, one minister believes that things are so close that there is a real chance that the Speaker John Bercow may end up having to break a tied vote. Though if the Letwin amendment passes, the vote this afternoon will lose some of its clarity. It is remarkable that Boris Johnson is so close to getting a majority for his deal despite having lost the support of the DUP. Cabinet Ministers are increasingly optimistic that the government might just pull this off. When Cabinet met yesterday afternoon, the Chief Whip Spencer ‘scrupulously avoided giving any numbers’, according

Sajid Javid

The world wants MPs to get Brexit done

Today is a historic moment for our country. After 85 days of hard graft, the Prime Minister has brought home a new Brexit deal – and I believe MPs should vote for it. Despite being told it was impossible, we have successfully re-opened the old Withdrawal Agreement and removed the Irish border backstop. In its place is a new agreement that maintains the open border all sides wanted while ensuring the United Kingdom takes back control of its money, borders, trade and laws. As MPs gather today – the first time the Commons has sat on a Saturday since the Falklands – they should know the world is watching. I

Douglas Carswell

I’d vote for Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal in a heartbeat

As the only person ever to have been elected for Ukip in a General Election, if I was in the House of Commons today I would not just vote in favour of Boris Johnson’s deal. I would do so cheerfully in the knowledge that this is pretty much what I have spent much of my adult life campaigning for. Firstly, UK law will become supreme in the UK. No longer will we be under the jurisdiction of the EU courts.  Nor will we be bound by EU regulation. There’s none of Theresa May’s nonsense about a ‘common rule book’. We will be free to determine our own standards. Who knows,

Friday

Ben Habib

Brexiteers are making a mistake backing Boris Johnson’s deal

There is an understandable desire among some Brexiteers to accept Boris Johnson’s deal. Everyone is battle weary. But it is precisely at this point that Brexiteers must, at the very least, be wary of what is presented to them – and vote down the deal. Why? First, the Withdrawal Agreement has been altered, but only in one substantive way, with respect to Northern Ireland. The backstop is gone and has been replaced with a protocol which theoretically brings NI into the UK’s new customs area but, in all practical aspects, leaves it within the EU’s customs union. The result is that NI would be subject to swathes of EU laws,

James Kirkup James Kirkup

Boris has compromised, not conquered on Brexit

Reflecting on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, I have many questions. Why are people who rejected the possibility of Northern Ireland being subject to EU rules and regulation via a contingent backstop now embracing the certainty of that happening? How could anyone reasonably expect the DUP to sign up to something that really does make Northern Ireland a very, very different part of the Union? Something they were repeatedly promised would never be conceded. Why are none of the people who used to be furious about the ‘£39 billion’ (actually less now but never mind) objecting to paying it now? Why shouldn’t MPs have at least a superficial analysis of the

Robert Peston Robert Peston

The DUP is caught on the horns of a Brexit dilemma

There is a magnificent paradox – the Taj Mahal of paradoxes, let’s hope NOT the RMS Titanic of paradoxes – in the opposition of Northern Ireland’s DUP to Boris Johnson’s Brexit. Johnson’s replacement to the backstop, by design, keeps the province much more closely aligned with the tax and business rules of the EU than would be true of Great Britain. It does so in order to keep the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland free of friction and free of opportunities for smugglers and terrorists to return to their toxic ways of yore. For the DUP, this alignment introduces a fat new border between NI and

Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O'Flynn

It’s time for every Brexiteer to back Boris Johnson’s deal

During my years campaigning for Brexit, I’ve bounced around quite a few different organisations in support of the great cause; starting by launching the Daily Express crusade to get Britain out back in 2010, then becoming part of the Ukip insurgency under Nigel Farage which led to that historic 2014 European elections win, before being the only Ukip MEP to back Vote Leave rather than its Faragist rival to be the designated Leave campaign in the 2016 referendum. At each turn, I’ve tried my best to put country before party, asking myself what would be the best thing for the attainment of Brexit rather than the most comfortable thing for

Thursday

Toby Young

The real reason Nicola Sturgeon is campaigning against Brexit

Nicola Sturgeon, who claimed this week that ‘Scotland is rich enough, strong enough and big enough’ to take its place ‘among the proud, independent nations of the world’, is a slippery fish. She claims the case for Scottish independence will be strengthened by the UK’s departure from the European Union and yet she campaigned for Remain during the referendum and has done what she can to obstruct Brexit since. For instance, the 35 SNP MPs voted against Theresa May’s withdrawal bill three times. If they’d voted for it on the third occasion, it would have passed. Does Sturgeon feel obliged to oppose Brexit because she’s convinced it will eventually happen

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Donald Trump is key to Boris Johnson’s survival

There are so many problems confronting our polity this week that it is almost impossible to write about any of them. Between the time of writing and the time you read this, we could have agreed Brexit, destroyed Brexit, called an election, called a referendum, or achieved nothing at all. Here, perhaps, is one thing which can safely be pointed out. In almost any scenario, Boris Johnson has to worry about the Brexit party. In practice, this means worrying about Nigel Farage. Who, if so minded, could persuade Mr Farage to be amenable? Surely the answer is his friend Donald Trump. If President Trump is serious in his desire for

The Spectator

The vindication of Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy

The Brexit deal agreed with the EU is a spectacular vindication of the Prime Minister’s approach: to go back to Brussels with the genuine prospect that Britain would leave with no deal on 31 October. The EU started off by saying it would never reopen the withdrawal agreement, but with a no-deal Brexit back in prospect, compromise — and thus a deal — has been possible. And yes, parliament has said it would force the Prime Minister to ask for an extension of EU membership; but No. 10 said it would find a way to not do so. It seems that this was enough to focus minds in Brussels. Boris Johnson’s deal

The Spectator

Portrait of the week: Brexit uncertainty, Turkey in Syria and a Chinese threat

Home Brexit teetered from uncertainty to uncertainty. Parliament had been summoned to sit on Saturday 19 October to debate what Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, had brought back from a European Union summit. He had held talks before the week began with Leo Varadkar, the Taoiseach of Ireland, at Thornton Manor in the Wirral, from which optimistic noises emerged. Margaret Atwood, 79, from Ottawa, and Bernardine Evaristo, 60, from Eltham, shared the Booker Prize. The Queen wore the George IV diadem at the State Opening of Parliament instead of the heavy Imperial State Crown. Among 26 Bills set out in the Queen’s Speech were seven relating to Brexit, one of

Charles Day

Boris Johnson’s biggest Brexit deal victory

In order to get anywhere in life, you have to compromise. Redrafting a deal foisted on you with no time and no majority has been Herculean. In doing so, the UK have made serious concessions so we can maintain good relationships with the EU. That must not get forgotten in the understandable (and shared) joy in getting a deal agreed in Brussels. Those who weakened our negotiating hand have a lot to answer for. What remains fundamental now is that all of us, whichever side we were once on, realise two things. That this dance has two stages and that the UK has made all its concessions in the first

Dominic Walsh

Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal: eight key changes

The UK Government and the European Commission today published the text of a revised Protocol on Northern Ireland, coming just in time for the start of today’s European Council Summit. The Government also released a unilateral declaration concerning the operation of the ‘consent mechanism’ contained in the new Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland. The new deal is different in both concept and substance to Theresa May’s deal – and to the EU’s original proposal for a Northern Ireland-only backstop. In fact, in many ways the new arrangements for Northern Ireland are more of a “front-stop” than a “backstop” – rather than an insurance policy which both sides want to

Fabian Zuleeg

For the EU, it’s this deal or no deal

Having reached a deal with the EU, Boris Johnson’s task is now to find a majority in the House of Commons. This is complicated by the rejection of the deal by the DUP. There is also a serious question whether the Prime Minister can convince not only the MPs supporting his government but also the Conservative rebels and a sufficient number of the opposition. One of the issues is the Benn Act. Having the possibility to avoid a no-deal situation by another extension might tempt many MPs to vote against a deal that will contain a range of difficult provisions, as well as providing a tempting opportunity to defeat Johnson

Dominic Walsh

The key changes in Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal

Boris Johnson has agreed a new Brexit deal with the EU. Here are the key differences between the old and new protocols for Ireland and Northern Ireland. Strikethrough = text removed; Red = new text – Green = moved to a different place ARTICLE 1 Objectives and relationship to subsequent agreement This Protocol is without prejudice to the provisions of the 1998 Agreement regarding the constitutional status of Northern Ireland and the principle of consent, which provides that any change in that status can only be made with the consent of a majority of its people. This Protocol respects the essential State functions and territorial integrity of the United Kingdom.

Katy Balls & James Forsyth

Jacob Rees-Mogg: ‘I am enormously environmentally friendly by driving old Bentleys’

Jacob Rees-Mogg sits at a mahogany table in his office drinking black coffee from a Spode cup. Across from him sit three aides — laptops out and ears pricked. These days, the Moggster comes with an entourage, and their determination to be present sometimes surprises him. ‘I kept on saying to them on Sunday that they didn’t need to come to the thing in the evening but I think they’re worried about me saying the wrong thing!’ They’d have had good reason to worry. Since his election in 2010, Rees-Mogg has been one of the most quotably outspoken Tory MPs: now he is Leader of the House of Commons, his

Rod Liddle Rod Liddle

It’s down to the wire – and Boris only has one chance to survive

Here is my ideal scenario. Having failed to push through his deal to leave the European Union in the House of Commons, Boris Johnson abides by the terms of the Benn Act and drafts a letter requesting an extension to the 31 October deadline. That extension would be eight minutes and 21 seconds, approximately the time it takes light to travel from the sun to earth — depending slightly, of course, on where we are in our orbit at the time. The Prime Minister could claim this would respect the letter of the Benn Act, if not, um, entirely the spirit. Having done this, Boris should then proceed to a

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Boris Johnson ‘very confident’ MPs will back his deal

Boris Johnson has just given a very upbeat press conference about his Brexit deal, despite the DUP being clear that they will not back it. The Prime Minister hinted that he would be seeking the support of MPs across the Commons instead, saying: ‘I’m very confident that when MPs of all parties look at the deal, they will see the merit of supporting it, getting Brexit done on October 31st, honouring the promises that were made repeatedly and giving us all the chance to move on’. Downing Street is working hard on Labour, independent and ex-Tory MPs to try to garner their support, and Johnson tried to address some of

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

The shifting Tory dynamics behind the party’s Brexit deal dilemma

It is not currently looking hopeful that Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal will pass in the Commons. The Prime Minister will need to convince a good number of Labour MPs and independents in order to get over his lack of a majority and the DUP’s current refusal to support the government. There are also a number of internal Tory dynamics at play here. The European Research Group has not yet announced its official position on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, but already there is a strong chance it could diverge from the DUP. The Brexiteer group was split at the third vote on Theresa May’s deal, with dozens of its members voting

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: Jean-Claude Juncker loses his temper

It looks as though it is all getting a bit too much for Jean-Claude Juncker. The EU Commission president snapped at Channel 4 News’s Matt Frei for asking him a question. ‘I’m speaking,’ Juncker yelled when he was quizzed on ruling out another extension. Oh dear.