Brexit

Britain could be heading for a nine-month Brexit delay

Nigel Dodds of the DUP has not yet agreed a deal with Theresa May to bring his troop of ten MPs – and some of their Tory ERG Brexiter allies – into her camp for that momentous and precedent-smashing third “meaningful vote” on her Brexit deal. This means as of now the third “meaningful vote” remains the stuff of myth and legend; as I said on Saturday, it may not happen at all, or at least not before the European Union council on Thursday. A minister close to the PM tells me the cabinet expects the EU to grant the UK a Brexit delay of nine months – which would

Martin Vander Weyer’s stock picks for the post-Brexit era

The nation certainly needs optimism this week, so what better moment to start building our ‘UK Optimist Fund’ of shares with exciting prospects for the post-Brexit era, for which I invited suggestions last week? I’m grateful to all  respondents but was particularly glad to hear from former minister Edwina Currie — whose stock picks show a penchant for high dividend yields — and this column’s very own veteran investor Robin Andrews, whose market eye has stood Spectator readers in such good stead over the years. Our underlying quest is a serious one. We’re heading into new territory in which businesses will clearly suffer if they previously depended on tariff-free access to European

Katy Balls

May under pressure to set an exit date to get her deal over the line

Is this the week Theresa May sets out an exit date for her departure from No. 10? There is hope in government that this will be the week the Prime Minister passes her Brexit deal. However, the price of her doing so could include a promise to resign before the second stage of negotiations begin later this year. No. 10 are working to try and ensure May passes her deal before this week’s EU council meeting where she has to try and seek an Article 50 extension. In a bid to try and do this, ministers have been locked in talks with the DUP all weekend on what could be

Robert Peston

Theresa May’s offer to the DUP

The prime minister’s frantic last attempt to persuade Northern Ireland’s DUP to back her third meaningful vote on Tuesday involves a promise that if the controversial backstop is ever triggered, Great Britain would adopt any new food and business rules that could be forced by the EU on Northern Ireland. This is a high risk offer by Theresa May to NI’s unionist party – which has huge clout with her because without its votes in parliament her government would collapse. As a minister told me, for the DUP to accept the offer it would have to trust that a future prime minister and government would honour the pledge – which

Sunday shows round-up: Brexit on 29 March is ‘physically impossible’, Hammond says

Philip Hammond: Leaving the EU on 29 March ‘now physically impossible’… This morning, the Chancellor sat down with Andrew Marr following a week in which his Spring Statement was overshadowed by other events, including a series of critical Brexit votes in the Commons, and an appalling terrorist attack on a mosque in Christchurch, New Zealand. With the government suffering another heavy defeat on its withdrawal deal, this time by a margin of 149 votes, Marr expressed the widespread concern that Brexit may never happen: AM: When are we going to leave the EU? PH: If the Prime Minister’s deal is able to muster a majority this week and get through,

Better than 50:50 chance that the government can get the DUP on board for meaningful vote 3

This weekend all eyes are on the DUP. As I say in The Sun this morning, if the government can satisfy them, then Theresa May has a chance of winning the vote on Tuesday because of the domino effect that them coming across will set off. But if the DUP won’t come over, there’s no point holding a third meaningful vote. The DUP spent yesterday in intensive talks with senior government figures. I understand that these talks were broadly positive. One Cabinet Minister close to the process tells me that the chances of the DUP backing the deal are ‘a bit better than 50:50. I’d put it at 60:40.’ What

What the EU will say when Theresa May asks for a Brexit extension

Now that Parliament has backed an extension to the Brexit process, the ball is effectively in the EU’s court. Whether her Brexit deal passes or not, Theresa May will head off to the European Council next week with a demand to delay the UK’s withdrawal, which is still scheduled for 29 March. In the last few weeks, officials from the European Commission and the European Parliament have been very vocal about their reluctance to extend Article 50 unless there is clarity about what the purpose of the extension would be. But ultimately, EU institutions do not have the final say on this matter. And if it comes to a point

Cindy Yu

The Spectator Podcast: the surrealism of Brexit, three years on

In Salvador Dalí’s Persistence of Memory, several clocks are melting away in a surreal desert scene where a distorted horse-like creature fades into the sand, below a ledge where a pocket watch crawls with ants. The bizarre painting is rather reminds one of the surrealism of the Brexit process, especially after this week. The government has gone into full meltdown mode – it lost yet again on May’s Brexit deal (though this time by a smaller margin, only by 149 MPs); ended up whipping against itself on a motion rejecting no deal, where 13 government ministers defied the whip; and just about wrested control of Brexit from the Commons on a

James Forsyth

Is there a risk Britain will get stuck in the Brexit backstop?

The prospects of Theresa May’s Brexit deal passing now hinge on what risk there is of the UK being trapped in the backstop against its will. A compelling new legal analysis by Policy Exchange suggests that this risk is significantly lower than thought. Written by three distinguished lawyers—a professor of international law at King’s College London, a former first parliamentary counsel and an Oxford professor—the paper makes clear that the new protections on the backstop have greater force than appreciated. First, the ‘good faith’ obligation in international law is more meaningful than thought. The bar for proving that the EU is not acting in good faith is such that if

Why a Brexit extension spells trouble for the EU

Now that Theresa May’s deal has been decisively defeated again, the message from Brussels has been clear: the Brexit impasse is your problem, not ours. But for all the bluster, don’t believe it: the Brexit deadlock is bad news for the EU. Perhaps understandably, there is anger and frustration on the continent over Westminster’s rejection of the withdrawal agreement. As a result, the EU is attempting to suggest that an extension to the transition period might not be on offer. This was the implied message in Donald Tusk’s reaction to the vote on Tuesday night. The president of the European Council said there must be a ‘credible justification for a possible

Katy Balls

Are things finally looking up for Theresa May?

Theresa May’s week just got a little less bad. This evening the Government managed to successfully defeat a string of amendments seeking to soften Brexit. A cross-party amendment – tabled by Hilary Benn – to seize control of the Commons next week and hold indicative votes next Wednesday failed. It was defeated by just two votes. Chief Whip Julian Smith could be seen celebrating with a fist bump with fellow whip Chris Pincher. The Government motion to seek an Article 50 extension and delay Brexit passed comfortably. Given that this is a vote Theresa May was forced into giving and one that divides the Conservative party, this result is in

Freddy Gray

The most shocking thing about Trump’s Brexit comments? He’s right

Tune out all the noise around Brexit, and read what Donald Trump said today: ‘I’m surprised at how badly it’s all gone from the standpoint of a negotiation,’ he told reporters at a bilateral meeting with Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. ‘But I gave the Prime Minister my ideas on to negotiate it and I think you would have been successful. She didn’t listen to that and that’s fine, she’s got to do what she’s got to do, but I think it could have been negotiated in a different manner, frankly. I hate to see everything being ripped apart now. I don’t think another vote would be possible because it would be

The full list: the MPs who voted to delay Brexit

MPs have voted by 412 to 202 in support of a government motion which will seek to extend the Article 50 deadline. Under its terms, if Theresa May’s deal passes by 20 March, she will ask the EU for a short extension, in order to pass the necessary legislation to leave. If May’s deal does not pass by 20 March, then the government will ask the EU for a longer extension. If the UK cannot agree an extension with the EU before the 29 March, then Britain will still leave without a deal. Below are the MPs who voted for this motion to extend Article 50: Conservative (112): Bim Afolami

Tom Goodenough

Parliament backs plan to delay Brexit

Parliament has backed a plan to delay Brexit. MPs approved a motion to delay Britain’s departure from the EU beyond the end of March by 412 to 202. Despite the vote, Britain will still leave without a deal unless one can be struck in the next 15 days, or the EU agrees to an extension. The motion means that if Theresa May’s deal passes by next Wednesday, Britain will ask the EU for a short extension. If her deal does not pass, a longer extension will be sought. Theresa May earlier secured a rare Parliamentary victory after MPs rejected an amendment that would have allowed them to take control of Commons

Steerpike

Watch: Donald Trump shoots down Leo Varadkar’s trade deal pitch

Leo Varadkar is meeting Donald Trump today but the Irish Taoiseach’s bid to drum up a trade deal between the EU and the United States has just backfired spectacularly. In their televised chat in the Oval Office, Varadkar told Trump: ‘I look forward to talking to you…about trade, and how much I would like to see a trade deal done between the US and the EU. We’ve done one with Japan, we’ve done one with Canada – we’d love to strike a deal with the US, too.’ But Trump was not impressed: ‘OK, well we’ll see, because the EU, as you know, has been very tough to deal with, and frankly it

Brendan O’Neill

Parliament’s plot to thwart Brexit is complete

It is time for plain speaking. The stakes are too high for euphemism or obfuscation. Bluntness is required now. And the blunt fact is this: Britain’s parliamentarians are in revolt against the electorate. They are defying the demos. They are pursuing a coup, albeit a bloodless one, against the public. This is what last night’s votes against a no-deal Brexit reveal: that our representatives now refuse to represent us. What else are we to make of the events of the past few days? They voted against Theresa May’s deal, which was a super soft Brexit, unloved by Brexiteers like me. So they don’t want a soft Brexit, clearly. Then they

Jess Phillips says she would make a good prime minister. I’m not convinced

On Saturday, the Times published a much-lauded interview with Jess Phillips. As with all her public outings, she comes across as decent, kind, funny, hard-working, honest, and down-to-earth. These are certainly fine qualities to have in an MP. But the interview concluded with Phillips stating that she thought she would be a good prime minister. Many people concurred. This should make us stop and consider whether we’re looking for the right qualities in a potential PM, especially given that we might be seeking a new one sooner rather than later as a result of Theresa May’s failure to get her Brexit deal through Parliament at the second attempt. Three things are required

James Forsyth

Row breaks out between the whips and Number 10

As if the government did not have enough troubles right now, a major row has erupted between the Whips’ Office and Number 10. The whips think that a Number 10 aide was telling ministers they were safe to abstain on the no to no deal motion, when there was a three-line whip to vote against it. After the amendment ruling out no deal in any circumstances passed, the government decided to whip against its own motion rather than allowing a free vote on it. This irritated a slew of Remain / soft Brexit ministers who wanted to vote against no deal. Sarah Newton resigned as a Minister of State to

James Forsyth

Meaningful vote 3 in the next seven days

Theresa May’s extension motion makes clear that she intends to bring her deal back for another vote in the next seven days. The motion states that if a meaningful vote has been passed by the 20th of March, then the government will request a short technical extension to pass the necessary Brexit legislation. (This request would be made at the European Council meeting next Thursday). But if no deal has been passed by the 20th, the UK would request a much longer extension — which would require the UK to participate in the EU Parliament elections. So, it is clear that the government are going to try and pass the