Brexit

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

Defeat looms for government as Brexiteers decide to abstain in key vote

The European Research Group has decided it will abstain on the government’s Brexit motion, which MPs will be voting on in the next hour. An ERG source said that there was a ‘collective decision’ at a meeting this afternoon to abstain on the motion if no other amendments to it were passed. Voting has begun, but Anna Soubry has suggested that she won’t be pushing her motion calling for the government’s no-deal assessments to be published, after ministers said they would do so. This means that there will definitely be a vote on the main motion, and with the ERG abstaining, the government looks as though it is heading for

Nick Cohen Nick Cohen

Corbyn’s crack-up

To say that the May administration is ‘the worst government anyone can remember’ is to abuse the English language. It isn’t a government but a collection of factions so far apart I am surprised they can stay in the same cabinet. On the backbenches the European Research Group operates as a separate English nationalist party. Everywhere Tory politicians are scrambling to position themselves to succeed Theresa May, rather than holding on to any notion as quaint as putting their country before their careers. Yet faced with this ungoverning government, a maladministration that is so exhausted it is running out of Conservative MPs who can serve as ministers, the opposition is

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

Why Keynesian theory can’t dig us out of Brexit uncertainty

‘It is seldom wise to sacrifice a present evil for a doubtful advantage in the future,’ wrote John Maynard Keynes as a precocious undergraduate in 1904. As we contemplate what no deal might be about to bring, those words seem to confirm the view of his living followers that the sage who died in 1946 (though usually labelled a free-trader) would have voted Remain.      But he was also well known as a pragmatist, so it’s worth asking what he would be telling us to do now, as the cliff-edge looms while UK GDP growth has already fallen to its slowest rate since 2012, at 1.4 per cent last year, according

Wednesday

Rupert Harrison

The moral of the Olly Robbins row? Don’t base policy on a lie

Olly Robbins will be trying to avoid the Prime Minister today after his hurricane strength gaffe was splashed all over the newspaper front pages. He deserves a fair share of the criticism that has come his way, but I’m sure most of us have mouthed off a little too loudly in the pub after a stressful day in the office. The PM will be especially frustrated because he has undermined one of Theresa May’s central claims – that the choice facing Parliament is a binary one between her deal and no deal. But she can’t blame Robbins for the fragility of her position. In fact this is just a specific

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Brexiteer Tories threaten Valentine’s Day defeat

Tomorrow’s Brexit vote has gone from being billed the ‘Valentine’s Day massacre’ to threatening a desperately dull anti-climax, and then back again to being quite interesting. This latest development comes courtesy of the European Research Group, which has said it could vote against the government on the motion that has been tabled because they object to its wording. This is another one of those neutral motions expressing government policy, which allows MPs to table motions expressing their own views. It currently reads: ‘That this House welcomes the Prime Minister’s statement of 12 February 2019; reiterates its support for the approach to leaving the EU expressed by this House on 29

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Chris Grayling gives Jeremy Corbyn a helping hand at PMQs

How do you put people off thinking that a no-deal Brexit might be alright? Jeremy Corbyn clearly thinks the best way to do this is to talk about Chris Grayling and the mess over the contract for ferry services. The Labour leader made this the focus of his stint grilling Theresa May at today’s Prime Minister’s Questions, asking how on Earth she could have confidence in her transport secretary when the awarding of the contract has been such an embarrassment. May defended Grayling, pointing to government spending on the railways as a reason for backing him. She also attacked Corbyn for choosing the ferries as a line of attack, arguing

Matthew Lynn

Mark Carney is finally right about Brexit | 13 February 2019

Cripes. At this rate the CBI will be putting out reports on Brexit’s potential benefits, George Osborne will be reminding us he could always see its upside, and even the FT will be running leaders saying Brexit doesn’t quite mean the end of the world. There have been plenty of twists and turns in our tortured departure from the European Union but few quite so unexpected as the apparent conversion of the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney to the cause. In a speech yesterday, Carney didn’t opt for any of the apocalyptic stuff – no food on the shelves at Tesco, pensioners dying in hospitals because of

Robert Peston Robert Peston

Why Brexiteers are getting worried

The world has become a very strange and unsettling place. Exhibit one is that a senior Tory Brexiter just now pulled out of being on my show tonight, because we didn’t have enough proper Leave-voting Brexiters on the programme. “The programme was startlingly unbalanced! Every guest but me having voted or campaigned for Remain,” the Brexiter said. “I hope you can understand my concern at the lack of balance for one of the country’s top political programmes”. Well actually I could not. Because this senior politician would have been interviewed at the start of the programme, in an impartial way, and with the space to express important arguments. And actually

Theo Hobson Theo Hobson

Victoria Bateman’s naked Brexit stunt isn’t feminist

Dr Victoria Bateman’s naked Brexit stunt should not be seen in terms of modern feminism but in terms of early modern religious performance art, especially that of the Ranters and Quakers. The trauma of the seventeenth century English civil war caused some strange religious groups to emerge, and some of them went in for shocking little stunts, or ‘happenings’, in the hippy-sixties term. Cromwell’s frail Commonwealth got rid of the old established church, and deciding what to put in its place was a bit like Brexit. Lots of Puritans wanted their new orthodoxy set up, but plenty of liberals wanted a more open-ended free for all, a ‘no-deal’ scenario perhaps.

Tuesday

Henry Newman

What is the naked Brexit academic trying to achieve?

Earlier this morning, I pitched up at Good Morning Britain’s studios for what was billed as a Brexit debate with Dr Victoria Bateman A.K.A. the naked academic. I’d been warned in advance that she would be naked. And when I was shown into the studio, she was – totally. We hadn’t met backstage in the green room, as Dr Bateman was in her own dressing room. Presumably she was busy writing her slogan across her torso (she kindly offered later to allow ITV to film this process). So, we were only introduced under the studio lights. We had a brief chat during the commercial break, as Dr Bateman handed her

John Keiger John Keiger

A no-deal Brexit spells trouble for Emmanuel Macron | 12 February 2019

In 1919, a 31-year-old Tommy from Bristol, named George Robertson – fresh from fighting alongside French troops on the Somme – married Suzanne Leblond in Abbeville, northern France. In 2017, George Robertson’s great grandson, Emmanuel Macron, became French president. Macron embarked on a policy that, while acknowledging Franco-British friendship, sought to ensure that Britain did not prosper from Brexit. Yet Macron’s stance appears increasingly counter-intuitive. Of all the European leaders, Macron is noted for being the most intransigent in his public utterances on Britain’s Brexit negotiations. He has nailed his pro-European colours to the mast and insisted that, in opting for Brexit, the British people must bear the consequences even if, as

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: Steve Barclay’s Jean-Paul Juncker blunder

Given that there have been three Brexit secretaries, those from the EU side could be forgiven for forgetting the name of the latest British minister in town. Unfortunately Steve Barclay has no such excuse for getting Jean-Claude Juncker’s name wrong. Asked by the BBC what he was up to in Brussels, he responded by saying: ‘It’s to build on the engagement the Prime Minister had last week with Jean-Paul Juncker…’ Oh dear. Mr S hopes that Barclay’s memory for names is no reflection of his grasp of detail on the backstop…

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Team Juncker shows it has learned nothing from Selmayr-gate

Martin Selmayr is no stranger to using Twitter to offer his insight and call out those he thinks have got it wrong. But this morning, on the big news in Brussels, the so-called ‘Monster’ is keeping quiet. While Selmayr has today shared messages about ‘clean vehicles’, ‘TeamJuncker’ and (of course) Brexit, he has had nothing to say on the story relating to the controversial circumstances of his appointment as secretary general of the EU Commission. This morning, the European Ombudsman closed its inquiry into Selmayr’s elevation to the top job; its findings are damning. The Ombudsman says that ‘Mr Selmayr’s appointment did not follow EU law, in letter or spirit, and

Ross Clark Ross Clark

David Cameron has helped Theresa May – even if he didn’t mean to

David Cameron has been widely blamed for the Conservatives’ current predicament, but in one sense he has saved the party – if inadvertently. It is thanks to his drive for younger candidates that Theresa May’s government has avoided succumbing to a no-confidence vote. May does not have a majority, and relied on DUP votes to help her survive a no-confidence vote last month. Yet even DUP votes would not be enough to save her were she losing her own MPs at the rate John Major did in the mid 1990s. In 1992, Major was elected with a seemingly healthy majority of 21. Yet over the course of the following five

Monday

Steerpike

Jeremy Corbyn: the EU must be defeated

Oh dear. Jeremy Corbyn was caught out last week after a video emerged of him claiming that the European Union was creating a ‘military Frankenstein’. It now seems as if that criticism of EU wasn’t a one off. Here is Corbyn making a speech at a rally in 2010 in which he says the EU must be ‘defeated’: He told the crowd: ‘They – the worlds bankers – the international Monetary Fund, the European Union, are utterly united in what they want. Utterly united in deflation, suppressing the economy and creating unemployment. We need to be equally united…to show that the voice of those campaigning for peace, justice, socialism, will

Ross Clark Ross Clark

What is the student ‘strike’ against climate change trying to achieve?

Forty years ago, I occasionally succeeded in skipping school for climate-related reasons – namely because my village was under deep snow and the school bus couldn’t get through. But too often the snowploughs proved surprisingly effective. It never occurred to me, though, to skip school on a point of principle. That is, however, what pupils are threatening to do – or are being implored to do – on Friday. A “Youth for Climate” movement circulating on Twitter has declared a ‘strike’ for the day – the idea being that children will walk out of lessons in order to protest at the lack of progress on tackling climate change. It seems

Robert Peston Robert Peston

Are May and Corbyn’s Brexit visions coming together?

No matter how many times Theresa May reminds us, it is easy to forget that Labour’s manifesto committed it to delivering Brexit. Equally it is hard to remember that the notorious motion passed by the last Labour conference that opened the door to the party’s possible support for a Brexit referendum – as a last resort – was also a restatement of the party’s pledge to deliver its own vision of how to leave the EU. So it was rational for the Prime Minister to respond in good faith to Jeremy Corbyn’s written offer to negotiate Brexit terms that he and his party could support. And quite apart from the convention

Sunday

Robert Peston

Why we are still no closer to a Brexit prognosis

I have this mental image of Brexit Britain on a hospital ward waiting for treatment that never comes. We are hanging on for an operation that is supposed to make us stronger and happier, but we still don’t know what kind of procedure it will be – or even when or whether it will definitely happen. This coming Thursday was supposed to be a big day. It was billed as when MPs would vote on whether Brexit should be postponed, and what kind of Brexit they might eventually support. But it now looks as though the consultant in charge of our treatment, the prime minister, will announce on Tuesday or Wednesday

Saturday

James Forsyth

Corbyn has complicated May’s Brexit strategy

Number 10 had hoped that if it could hold off the Cooper amendment again next week, then it could eke out a concession from the EU on the backstop. But as I say in The Sun this weekend, this approach has been complicated by Jeremy Corbyn’s soft Brexit plan. This scheme, obviously, appeals to the EU: it would keep Britain in the customs union and following many of the rules of the single market. ‘The Labour party and the EU are operating in tandem to some extent, which is worrying for us’ frets one Cabinet Minister. So, May needs to persuade Brussels that such a deal couldn’t get through because

Friday

John Hoey

Could a ‘frontstop’ solve the Brexit backstop problem?

Like many people growing up in Northern Ireland, I closed my eyes to the dirty, nasty low-grade civil war that we called ‘The Troubles’. But when John Major’s government averred itself in the 1993 Downing Street Declaration to have “no selfish strategic or economic interest” in Northern Ireland, I pricked up my ears. Events moved quickly from this point. A few years on, in 1998, Tony Blair gave unction to the historic Good Friday Agreement (GFA). Ireland amended its constitution abandoning its claim to sovereignty over the entire island; the United Kingdom recognised the right of a majority of people in Northern Ireland to determine whether it remains part of the