Brexit

Wednesday

Alex Massie

Ditching Theresa May achieves nothing

Theresa May has failed. That is no longer in doubt. Nor is there any prospect of resurrection. Her credibility within the Conservative party, the House of Commons, and the country at large is shot. The only thing propping up her Government is the fear that allowing it to collapse completely would invite Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street. That, for the time being, is something even this deranged iteration of the Conservative party is not prepared to countenance. As a matter of party politics, May has been on some kind of unofficial probation ever since last year’s disastrous general election. In office, certainly, but only tolerated grudgingly. As far as the

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: Tory MPs refuse to talk on TV

It’s all out war in the Conservative party today, and as you would expect, things are already getting a little heated between Tory MPs. The rift between colleagues backing Theresa May and those calling for her to go was very apparent on BBC news this morning, where Brexiteer and letter submitter Andrew Bridgen was talking about the upcoming no confidence vote. At the end of his interview, he was then asked by Victoria Derbyshire if he was willing to stay on and chat with the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, James Cleverly – who is backing Theresa May, and who had just joined them: ‘I gather, that you don’t necessarily

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

The full list of Tory MPs backing Theresa May

With just a few moments to go until voting closes, 181 Tory MPs have publicly backed Theresa May in the vote of confidence. Given that May needs 159 votes, their support should be enough to keep her position safe. But given that this is a secret ballot, are they as good as their word? Here is the full list of those who have vowed to back the PM: Bim Afolami: Adam Afriyie: Heidi Allen: Stuart Andrew Ed Argar Victoria Atkins Kemi Badenoch Steve Barclay: Harriett Baldwin: Henry Bellingham Richard Benyon Guto Bebb Paul Beresford Jake Berry Nick Boles: Peter Bottomley Andrew Bowie: Robert Buckland: Alistair Burt Karen Bradley Steve Brine: Jack Brereton

James Forsyth James Forsyth

To survive now, Theresa May could have to promise to resign later

The signatures are now in. Theresa May will have to ask whether her best chance of survival comes in promising to resign – but not just yet. She must now decide whether to set out a timetable for her departure ahead of this evening. If she wins the vote, she cannot be challenged for another year. There, though, are a decent number of Tories MPs who don’t want her gone now, but do want her to leave soon after March 29th. They would like a new PM in place for the 2nd round of the Brexit negotiations.   So what are they to do if tonight’s confidence vote? If May gives

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Mounting speculation that the 48 letters are in

The talk in Tory circles this evening is that the 48 letters are in. Two putative leadership campaigns are saying they are. But, perhaps more significantly, so is one close ally of the Prime Minister. There has, though, been no word from Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee. However, we wouldn’t expect him to say anything until he has spoken to Theresa May directly. If the letters are in, expect a quick vote. Tory MPs are on a three-line whip for Thursday and that would be the obvious time to have it. I think there is very little chance of Theresa May resigning before any vote. One long-time

John Major

John Major: we need to revoke Article 50 with immediate effect

Whether a “Remainer” or a “Leaver”, no-one welcomes chaos. So it is time for everyone to reflect and consider. Time to turn to reality – not fiction. Reason – not ideology. We need to calm the markets. We need to protect the economic wellbeing of the British people. We need to protect our national interest. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that – to do so – we need to revoke Article 50 with immediate effect. The clock must be stopped. It is clear we need the most precious commodity of all: time. Wherever one looks, a new world is forming: it is vigorous, and often contemptuous of

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Can May really win back MPs’ trust?

How can MPs trust what ministers say after the Brexit fiasco of the past few days? That’s been the theme of the Commons emergency debate on the meaningful vote so far, with phrases like ‘shredded her credibility’ being bandied about. Initially, the most stinging criticism came from opposition MPs, but those MPs are not the usual suspects who chant blandly about how you can ‘never trust the Tories’. They’re senior backbenchers like Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle. And they speak for a large number of Tory MPs, too, who feel that there is little reason to trust what a minister or indeed a whip tells them. Those Tory MPs range

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: Theresa May gets locked inside her car

Poor old Theresa May. The PM is hopping across Europe in a desperate bid to try and salvage her Brexit deal. But quite predictably things aren’t going well. After arriving in Berlin to meet Angela Merkel, Theresa May got off to a bad start – by getting locked in her car. Mr S is pleased to report that it wasn’t long before the PM was freed, although he suspects that not all Tory MPs will be pleased about that….

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: John Bercow burns Philip Hammond

John Bercow gave Labour MPs a helping hand in the Commons yesterday by making his thoughts known on the Government’s decision to delay a vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The Speaker said the hold-up was ‘deeply discourteous’. But it seems he hasn’t stopped his mission of making life tricky for the Tories. Philip Hammond urged John McDonnell to vote for the PM’s withdrawal arrangement because it was the best that was on offer. But unfortunately for the Chancellor his remark teed up Bercow to take a pop at him: ‘It’s quite difficult to vote for something if there isn’t a vote’ Mr S thinks that Bercow does have a

Alexander Downer

No deal need not be a disaster

Spare a thought for us foreigners. We’re desperately trying to understand the meaning of the Brexit arguments being thrown around in the House of Commons. We all have our own countries too, so we view those arguments through the lens of our homelands. So here are a few reflections on how we react.  Theresa May’s deal has the UK leaving the voting structures of the EU but remaining in the Customs Union until the EU gives the UK permission to leave. Australia and New Zealand have a free trade agreement and co-ordinate their regulatory regimes through a joint council. But they certainly don’t have a customs union otherwise neither country would

Ross Clark Ross Clark

May’s delay has made a leadership challenge more likely

How painfully clear it is what happens next. Theresa May returns from her European travels with some kind of non legally-binding piece of paper saying that the EU would rather not enact the backstop if it can possibly avoid it, and, some time in January we finally have the crushing Commons defeat that we should have had today. Unless, that is, Conservative MPs finally overcome their chronic writers’ block and get their 48 letters to Graham Brady. It has become a received wisdom that May has somehow bought herself time by delaying the vote on the withdrawal bill – that she has stayed the executioner’s axe. Yet the opposite is

James Forsyth James Forsyth

It’s time to send Geoffrey Cox – not Olly Robbins – to Brussels

Theresa May is on a tour of European capitals today, while Olly Robbins was spotted back in Brussels yesterday. But it isn’t Robbins who May should have sent to Brussels but Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general. May’s problem right now isn’t technical but parliamentary, how to get the withdrawal deal through the Commons. It isn’t reasonable, or even fair, to expect a civil servant—which is what Robbins is—to have a finger-tip feel for what language or phrase might reassure Tory MPs. Cox, having held dozens of meetings with Ministers and MPs to discuss their concerns about the backstop, is far better placed to do that. Sending a Brexiteer minister to

James Kirkup James Kirkup

The lies and liars of Brexit

I started my first job at Westminster in 1994, more than half a lifetime ago. Almost all of my career has been spent watching politicians, talking to politicians, writing about politicians. I covered the case for war in Iraq and the war’s dismal descent into failure. I was part of the Telegraph team writing about MPs expenses. I’ve written about more ministerial resignations, scandals, failures of public policy and abdications of leadership than I can remember. None of those failures has ever left me quite as bewildered and despairing as I am today, pondering the latest act in the national farce that is Brexit. Bewildered, despairing and surprisingly angry.  Surprisingly because

The Spectator

Letters of no confidence in Theresa May: live updates

UPDATE: 48 letters of no confidence have now been reached. It’s been four long weeks since the last rebellion against Theresa May, when the ERG and Brexiteers fell short of the numbers they needed to trigger a leadership election. Now, it’s being reported that Tory MPs have had enough, and are once again submitting letters of no confidence to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady. Speculation is rife that the total number of letters has already been reached this evening. Once 48 letters have been submitted, a confidence vote will be triggered. But before them, Brady is likely to let the PM know in private first, to give her

Monday

Pieter Cleppe

Now Theresa May has postponed the vote, how will the EU react?

Even before today’s announcement that the Brexit vote would be pulled, a number of media leaks indicated the EU’s plan in case of a parliamentary defeat. According to Reuters, the EU had been planning to concede a number of cosmetic changes. However, those changes would not be made to the withdrawal agreement, but only to the non-binding political declaration. As one EU diplomat said: ‘we could look at doing something cosmetic, relatively quickly. First, we would have to hear from May, see what they want’. Another EU diplomat, however, warned that ‘if she falls short of a hundred votes, it’s probably not doable.’ It now makes sense for the EU

Charles Day

The ECJ wants to take back control of Brexit

Given that the ECJ often takes years to give an opinion, the speed of its Brexit judgement is unprecedented. Now and again, the mask slips: in theory the ECJ’s court judicial, cares only about good law. In practise this is nakedly political – explicitly so this time, given the vote tomorrow. It’s being breathlessly reported that ECJ has said Britain can now abandon Brexit unilaterally, without permission. This is just wrong. Unilateral means on our own. We can’t do that under this judgement. Instead, see paras 73 to 75, the ECJ gets to sign off on whether or not we can revoke. The test is not abuse, as proposed by

Steerpike Steerpike

Six denials in six days about Theresa May’s Brexit vote

Faced with the prospect of overwhelming defeat, Theresa May has once again decided to kick the Brexit can down the road and delay the meaningful vote on her Brexit deal. Standing before the House of Commons, the Prime Minister told MPs that ‘it is clear that while there is broad support for many of the key aspects of the deal, on one issue – the Northern Ireland backstop – there remains widespread and deep concern.’ which is why she is shelving the vote. All of which rather confused Mr Steerpike. After all, nothing had really changed in the past week, and Mr S was sure he had heard multiple times

Steerpike Steerpike

Watch: MP tells May: No PM is better than a bad PM

Not for the first time, Theresa May’s words on Brexit are coming back to haunt her. The PM once famously said that no deal is better than a bad deal. But in the Commons just now, Labour MP Peter Kyle had this to say to the PM: ‘Isn’t it true that no Prime Minister is better than a bad Prime Minister?’ Mr S thinks that Kyle has a point. But given that the Labour MP is no fan of the party’s leader, does his logic also apply to the prospect of a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn?

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Pulling the vote won’t be enough to save Theresa May’s Brexit deal

Few Prime Ministers can have come to the House in more humiliating circumstances than Theresa May did today. In her statement, May acknowledged that she was pulling the vote as she would have lost it by a significant margin if it had gone ahead. But in that odd way of hers, May then delivered her best defence of her deal as she was saying that she would head back to Brussels to try and change it. However, it is worth noting that May does not seem to be seeking a change to the withdrawal agreement itself. In response to a question from Iain Duncan Smith, she warned that reopening the

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Speaker Bercow says MPs should get a say in delaying Brexit vote

Speaker Bercow has told MPs that they do deserve a vote on the government’s plan to delay its Brexit deal vote. He told the Commons this afternoon that ‘any courteous, respectful and mature environment, allowing the House to have its say on the matter would be the right and obvious course to take’. We will find out more details on the procedural aspects of the government’s plan later when Andrea Leadsom gives a statement. Bercow’s statement shows why Labour were so keen to protect him as Speaker when his job was in peril over the bullying and harassment scandal. He was always likely to be an interventionist speaker over Brexit,