Brexit

Thursday

The Spectator

Beyond May

On Tuesday, MPs will face something rare: a Commons motion which really does deserve to be described as momentous. It will set Britain’s place in Europe and in the world for years to come. The vote will place an especially heavy burden on Conservative MPs, for they have the power to inflict a hefty defeat on their own government, an administration which has no majority and which governs thanks only to a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP. It is all too easy to see where defeat on Tuesday could lead: to the collapse of the government, a general election and the arrival of Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.

The Spectator

Portrait of the Week – 6 December 2018

Home Political hobbyists speculated on the future of Brexit if the government fell, if a new Conservative leader was chosen, if a general election was called or if a second referendum was held. Debates were tabled over five days, in prospect of a Commons vote on 11 December on the withdrawal agreement from the EU to which Theresa May, the Prime Minister, had agreed. She told the Commons that it would allow Britain to negotiate, sign and ratify new trade deals from the moment it left next March (even if none could be implemented until the end of the transition period, 31 December 2020 at the earliest, or by any

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Stephen Lloyd’s baffling decision to resign the Lib Dem whip

Brexit has left the three main parties that stand in England in an existential mess, split not just over the fundamental question of Leave vs Remain, but also over how to approach the deal that Theresa May has brought back from Europe. One of the odder splits tore open today, with Eastbourne MP Stephen Lloyd announcing he was resigning the Liberal Democrat whip so that he could back the government next week.  In a statement confirming his resignation, Lloyd said: “I have come to the conclusion that I cannot honestly uphold the commitment I made to Eastbourne and Willingdon two and a half years ago, and reiterated since – to

Douglas Murray

If Brexit is abandoned, will it ever be worth voting again?

Earlier this year I was approached at a party by a prominent and slightly oiled ‘Remainer’. Amid other pleasantries she asked me, interrogatively: ‘You voted “Leave”, Douglas. Can you give me one good reason why we should still leave the EU?’. Having watched the last two-and-a-half years from the sidelines, depressed by almost the entire political debate in the UK, I could think of no argument that would be new to her. We’ve all been round this too many times before, and almost no one has conceded anything new on the subject for years. So I decided to relay the feeling that was (and still is) foremost in my mind.

Robert Peston Robert Peston

What does a leaked recording reveal about Boris’s Brexit stance?

I’ve been sent a recording of a presentation made on Tuesday by the great champion of Brexit, Boris Johnson, over breakfast in Amsterdam. He was talking to “chief risk officers” of financial firms at an event called RiskMinds International, that was sponsored by, among others, the huge accounting firm PWC and the management consultancy McKinsey. Days before that big vote on Theresa May’s version of Brexit, which Johnson passionately opposes, he talks about the importance of politicians, like his hero Churchill, taking a stand against the establishment and “gambling” – making a “giant bet” – to do the right thing. I am not going to comment much on what he

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Theresa May’s meetings with her MPs are making things worse

Theresa May is continuing her efforts today to persuade Tory MPs to back her Brexit deal. It is clear that she is not going to get Commons approval for that deal on Tuesday, and is too late to drop it beforehand without another vote. What’s unclear is whether the Prime Minister is actually making the situation any better. The tally of Tory MPs who have declared in public that they will vote against the deal isn’t falling, but rising, even as backbenchers are summoned into meetings in Number 10 and the Prime Minister appears in the Commons dining rooms to try to sweet talk her party. A recurring theme among

James Kirkup James Kirkup

The question May’s Brexit deal critics must ask themselves

Brexit is an accident born of misunderstanding. One of the biggest miscalculations is about the EU and how it works. Troublingly, that misjudgement, embraced by both unwise Leavers and imprudent Remainers, could just lead Britain off a cliff, for the second time in three years. I attended my first EU summit in 2001 and stopped counting the number of Council meetings, ECOFINs and other EU gatherings when the figure passed 50 some time early in the financial crisis. I’ve seen a lot of British politicians go to Brussels (and elsewhere, in those innocent days before the Belgians captured all council meetings for their capital) and pursue the British national interest,

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Is Parliament taking back control of Brexit?

One of the promises of Brexit campaigners, famously, was that parliament will ‘take back control’ of laws that affect Britain. Since the referendum result, it has seemed rather more that the government is taking back control, rather than MPs, with the executive (quite naturally) resisting any opportunity for Parliament to have a say in, well, any part of the Brexit deal. This evening, though, MPs handed the government its third defeat of the day on an amendment from former attorney general Dominic Grieve which would give the Commons a say on what happens if (or more probably when) Theresa May’s deal is defeated next week. The plan, which passed 321

Katy Balls Katy Balls

What happens next?

Parliament is in deadlock over Brexit. So what can we expect in the coming days and weeks after the vote? These are the scenarios currently being war-gamed. May’s deal passes A political shock: Theresa May squeaks over the line after convincing Brexiteers that it was her deal or no Brexit — and Remainers that it was her deal or a no-deal Brexit. The DUP then rains on May’s parade. Seething over the backstop, it declares that the confidence and supply agreement is over for good. This scenario could involve delaying the initial vote in the hope this gives MPs time to come around. It passes on a second vote Theresa

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Brexit’s crunch point

Unless Theresa May delays the vote, 11 December 2018 might be about to become one of the most important in recent British history; more important even than 23 June 2016. If MPs vote down Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, as nearly all ministers expect them to, they will set Britain on course for either the softest possible Brexit or a second referendum. In the process, they may well split the Tory party. Theresa May’s strategy has been to play chicken with Parliament. Her team saw virtue in intransigence and calculated that at the last moment MPs would get out of her way. They thought that fear of no deal would bring

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

Taking the Michael | 6 December 2018

One of the biggest stars of the 1970s was the professional lard-bucket Mick McManus, who plied his trade as an all-in wrestler. The sport was televised to millions. The parents of the playwright Michael McManus must have calculated that by giving their child the same name as ‘The Dulwich Destroyer’ they would subtly galvanise his intellectual ambitions. Their ploy paid off. The young Michael McManus, lumbered with the identity of a potato-shaped pugilist, seems to have toiled night and day to distinguish himself from his pot-bellied namesake. He succeeded in establishing his intellectual credentials by working as a political diarist, a ministerial adviser, and by writing well-received biographies of Jo

Wednesday

Andrew Willshire

Rory Stewart is right: the shock of a no-deal Brexit would be fatal for the Tories

As a white, straight male, it’s not often that I get to feel in a minority but at the Spectator Brexit debate – as a Leave voter in favour of Theresa May’s deal – it was apparent that I’m an endangered species on a par with the white rhino. But I also found that I have an eloquent champion: Rory Stewart, the prisons minister, who gave the best case that I have heard for the deal He was on stage with Dominic Raab, on the opposite end of the pragmatism spectrum. Raab, in effect, argued for a no-deal Brexit, while Stewart mounted a most robust defence of the May deal,

Bernard Connolly

May’s bid to satisfy everyone on Brexit has pleased no one

In Parliament yesterday, Theresa May repeated Philip Hammond’s fallacious argument that because the Brexit referendum result was 52:48, the form of Brexit should be a compromise between leaving the EU and remaining in it. This argument completely distorts the notion of democracy. Firstly, no such argument was ever deployed when it was a question of accepting the Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon treaties. Secondly, the referendum was not subject to any threshold level of support for one position or the other. And David Cameron and George Osborne stated very explicitly that a victory for “Leave” – even by a single vote – would mean leaving the Single Market and the

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

PMQs: A lesson in calling the Prime Minister a liar

Huge ructions at PMQs. Ian Blackford, of the SNP, said Mrs May had been ‘misleading the house inadvertently or otherwise’ over her EU agreement. Instant panic. Roars of outrage at the suggestion that the prime minister had lied. Mr Speaker snapped to his feet. The house paused while he delivered his ruling which centred on two adverbs. He revealed that when accusing the PM of fibbing it’s advisable to say that it was done ‘inadvertently’. But to add the phrase ‘or otherwise’ suggests that Mrs May tells lies as a matter of policy. Surely not! ‘There must be no imputation of dishonour,’ said Mr Bercow, clearly enjoying the semantic kerfuffle

Nick Cohen Nick Cohen

The betrayal of the Brexit bunch

It is now standard on the right to say that the establishment is sabotaging Brexit. I could pick one of half a dozen writers for this magazine, who wallow in the language of victimhood as luxuriantly as any of the alleged snowflakes they so unselfconsciously denounce. The inevitable failure to transfer the impossible demands of the Brexit campaign into the politics of the possible is producing vicious stab-in-the-back myths. Nowhere more so than from the lips of the Conservative MP Maria Caulfield who declared yesterday: Note how artfully she plays the innocent who came to Westminster with high ideals, like a modern Candide, only to see them crushed by the

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Are we heading for a recession? If so, don’t just blame Brexit

So will those Remainers seemingly hoping for a Brexit-related recession get what they want after all? This morning Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the service sector certainly points in that direction. The index, which is really just a questionnaire to businesses but which can give advance warning of swings in economic growth, fell to 50.4 in November, down from 52.2 in October and 54 in September. Anything above 50 denotes growth – so it doesn’t indicate we are yet in recession – but it suggests a steep plunge in activity and confidence which could well take us there. It would be foolish to deny any link with the Brexit crisis.

The Spectator

Full text: The Government’s Brexit legal advice

The Government has published its Brexit legal advice, a day after it was found in contempt of Parliament for refusing to do so. Here’s the full text: Legal Effect of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland Introduction This note sets out my advice on the question I have been asked as follows: What is the legal effect of the UK agreeing to the Protocol to the Withdrawal Agreement on Ireland and Northern Ireland in particular its effect in conjunction with Articles 5 and 184 of the main Withdrawal Agreement? I note that the Withdrawal Agreement, of which the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland (Protocol) forms part, is yet to be finalised. My

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Is Parliament taking back control of Brexit? | 4 December 2018

One of the promises of Brexit campaigners, famously, was that parliament will ‘take back control’ of laws that affect Britain. Since the referendum result, it has seemed rather more that the government is taking back control, rather than MPs, with the executive (quite naturally) resisting any opportunity for Parliament to have a say in, well, any part of the Brexit deal. This evening, though, MPs handed the government its third defeat of the day on an amendment from former attorney general Dominic Grieve which would give the Commons a say on what happens if (or more probably when) Theresa May’s deal is defeated next week. The plan, which passed 321

The Spectator

Revealed: the full list of Tory rebels who voted against the Government

The Government has been defeated three times in key votes in Parliament this afternoon. Its an ominous sign for Theresa May ahead of the vote on her Brexit plan a week today. Here is the full list of Tory MPs who went against the Government: Grieve amendment: This hands more power to MPs in the event that May’s Brexit plan gets voted down, by effectively allowing them to have a say on what the PM’s Plan B should be. These Tory MPs rebelled: Heidi Allen Guto Bebb Richard Benyon Nick Boles Kenneth Clarke Jonathan Djanogly Michael Fallon George Freeman Richard Graham Damian Green Justine Greening Dominic Grieve Oliver Heald Jo Johnson Phillip Lee Jeremy Lefroy Oliver Letwin Nicky Morgan Bob Neill Antoinette Sandbach Nicholas Soames Anna Soubry John Stevenson Derek Thomas

Steerpike Steerpike

Nigel Farage quits Ukip

Nigel Farage has quit Ukip. The three-time leader of the party said he was walking away in protest at its courting of Tommy Robinson under Gerard Batten. Farage announced his departure in an article for the Telegraph. He said: ‘With a heavy heart, and after all my years of devotion to the party, I am leaving Ukip today. There is a huge space for a Brexit party in British politics, but it won’t be filled by UKIP.’ It’s been said many times before but Mr S thinks this really could be the end of Ukip…