Budget

Wednesday

Martin Vander Weyer

Wahed’s alarming Tube adverts

As the interminable Budget wait goes on, so does the trawl through the Chancellor’s bin bags. I refer to the old tabloid method of digging in celebrities’ dustbins for evidence of depravity or scandal; in Rachel Reeves’s case, that would mean piecing together shredded Treasury analyses on all the various tax wheezes floated since July. One curry-smeared paper no doubt addresses the pros and cons of an inheritance raid on ‘aristocrats and landowners’; beneath the Red Bull cans and pizza crusts, might there be another headed ‘Clawbacks on Enterprise Investment Scheme’? Not that there have been substantive rumours, mind you. But that’s rather the point: having had so many draft

Sunday

James Kirkup

Jeremy Hunt’s fantasy Budget

As Rachel Reeves prepares what is potentially the most difficult Budget in a generation, a question occurs: what if the Conservatives had, somehow, won the election? Historians hate counterfactuals, considering them unhelpful parlour-games. Personally, I enjoy a good ‘what if’ – not least because they can help put current political events in context. In that spirit, I’m pleased to present here the October 2024 Budget speech that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt might give in a parallel universe where the Conservatives remained in office after the election. As well a Budget address, this is also my resignation speech ‘Madam Deputy Speaker, it gives me no great pleasure to present this Budget statement

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Labour budget: are we heading for austerity?

23 min listen

Labour’s first Budget in 14 years will be delivered at the end of the month. The Prime Minister and Chancellor have already been warning that the public isn’t going to like what’s in it. But how will the Budget affect people? Will Labour break its manifesto commitment not to tax working people? And is it really true that things have to get worse before they get better? Kate Andrews is joined by Paul Mason, journalist at The New European. Join Freddy Gray a special live recording of Americano on Thursday 24 October. You can buy tickets at www.spectator.co.uk/electionspecial. 

Thursday

William Moore

Reeves’s gambit, a debate on assisted dying & queer life in postwar Britain

52 min listen

This week: the Chancellor’s Budget dilemma. ‘As a former championship chess player, Rachel Reeves must know that the first few moves can be some of the most important of the game,’ writes Rupert Harrison – former chief of staff to George Osborne – for the cover of the magazine this week. But, he says, the truth is that she has played herself into a corner ahead of this month’s Budget, with her room for manoeuvre dramatically limited by a series of rash decisions. Her biggest problem is that she has repeatedly ruled out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT. So which taxes will rise, given that the easy

Matthew Lynn

Let’s see if ‘Patriotic Millionaires’ really want more tax

Dubai, Italy or perhaps the Bahamas? Many multi-millionaires are discussing where they should flee to as the Rachel Reeves prepares to raid their bank accounts in the ‘Horror Budget’ scheduled for the end of this month. But not, as it turns out, Patriotic Millionaires, the group that campaigns tirelessly for higher taxes on the rich. Its members want Reeves to take more of their money. The papers are dominated by reports of wealthy entrepreneurs, and the few remaining non-doms, securing a bolt hole somewhere where Reeves will not be able to reach them, but Patriotic Millionaires has a very different message. A report out today, written by IPPR (a think

Tuesday

Oscar Edmondson

National Insurance: Starmer’s first big U-turn?

14 min listen

The Budget is not due for a fortnight, yet with every day that passes its contents seem to become clearer. This morning Keir Starmer gave an interview to the BBC where he twice refused to rule out a rise in employer’s national insurance contributions in the Budget. Instead, he repeatedly stressed that Labour’s manifesto promise was specifically that it would ‘not raise taxes on working people’. Can Rachel Reeves afford a national insurance hike?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Michael Gove.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson. 

Thursday

James Heale

The ‘Green Budget’ could leave Rachel Reeves red-faced

16 min listen

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has published its yearly Green Budget, weeks ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s first fiscal event. It’s grim reading, for both the government and the public. For Labour to make good on its promise to avoid ‘austerity’, taxes are going to need to go up significantly: by £25 billion, the IFS’s reports, and that’s just to ‘keep spending rising with national income.’ Can Reeves square the circle?  James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Kate Andrews.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson. 

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Coffee House Shots live: the Starmer supremacy

47 min listen

Join Fraser Nelson, Katy Balls and Kate Andrews, along with special guest Jonathan Ashworth, for a live edition of Coffee House Shots recorded earlier this week. They dissect the first few weeks of the new Labour government and look ahead to the policies autumn, and the budget, might bring. Having surprisingly lost his seat at the election, how blunt will Ashworth be? The team also answer a range of audience questions, including: how big of a welfare crisis is the government facing? Would – and should – they reform the NHS? And could the challenge Reform UK poses to traditional parties continue to grow?  Produced by Patrick Gibbons and Megan McElroy. 

Friday

Katy Balls

Labour’s ‘£20 billion black hole’ strategy

17 min listen

The Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to give a statement to Parliament on Monday outlining the state of public finances, including a ‘£20 billion black hole’. James Heale talks to Katy Balls and Kate Andrews about the strategy behind this: will this speech lay the ground work for the Autumn budget? How new are these economic issues? And, with the Conservatives embarking on a long leadership election, will Labour have a free rein for their plans?  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Wednesday

Oscar Edmondson

We need to talk about Truss

15 min listen

Liz Truss continues to haunt Rishi Sunak. Labour leader Keir Starmer took aim at her recent exploits at CPAC in the US during prime minister’s questions today. Starmer called on the prime minister to remove the whip after Truss claimed that her premiership was sabotaged by the ‘deep state’. What’s Truss up to this time?  Also on the podcast, chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver his budget next week. We expect that he will have made his final decision on the March 6th budget by the end of the week. What do we know so far?  Oscar Edmondson speaks to Katy Balls and Kate Andrews.  Produced by Oscar Edmondson. 

Sunday

Kate Andrews

Jeremy Hunt defends the Tories’ long-term economic record

A Chancellor’s Sunday media appearance before a Budget often serves as a ‘free pass’ – not because difficult questions aren’t asked, but because they can quite easily get out of answering by saying some polite version of: ‘you’ll have to wait and see.’ So instead of focusing on the upcoming Budget this Wednesday, the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg decided to ask Jeremy Hunt this morning about his party’s long-term record. Those questions he had to answer. It wasn’t an easy task. Kuenssberg presented Hunt with two tricky metrics: housing prices and average wages. The former, Kuenssberg notes, has skyrocketed, while average wages are failing to keep up with inflation. Many people

Wednesday

Dot Wordsworth

What ‘Budget’ and ‘bilge’ have in common

The Budget (which the revolutionary fiscal act last week was technically not) is directly connected with bilge and with one of the circles of Dante’s Hell, the eighth, which houses the financial fraudsters, speculators, extortionists, counterfeiters and false forecasters. The circle is divided into the ten ditches of Malebolge. The Malebolge, singular bolgia, take their name from Latin malus (‘evil’) and bulga (‘bag’). The early commentator on Dante, Benvenuto da Imola, says that bolgia in Florentine speech means a concave and capacious ditch. In Dante’s Hell inside the Earth, the Malebolge are concentric. Budget also comes from the Latin bulga. We are just about aware of the obsolescent budget meaning

Tuesday

Katy Balls

Rishi Sunak’s popularity test

Rishi Sunak ended 2021 as the most popular politician in the country. A YouGov poll for the final quarter of the year found that 31 per cent of all adults had a positive opinion of the Chancellor compared to 28 per cent for Nicola Sturgeon and 26 per cent for Boris Johnson. However, ending 2022 in the same situation looks rather ambitious.  As the cost of living crisis worsens, Sunak is under pressure both from the public and his own party to step in and ease the burden on households in tomorrow’s Spring Statement. A poll out today suggests he has plenty of work to do to convince voters he has the

Saturday

Patrick O’Flynn

Is Rishi Sunak any good at politics?

Is Rishi Sunak any good at politics? In recent days Labour sources have been putting it about that they no longer fear the prospect of the Chancellor stepping up to take over from Boris Johnson if he is forced out by partygate. According to one briefing to the left-wing New Statesman, Keir Starmer’s team has concluded that ‘Little Rishi’ is ‘crap at politics’ after observing his response to the cost-of-living crisis and now thinks that Liz Truss may prove a more formidable successor to Johnson in electoral terms at least. With politics being surpassed only by espionage as a theatre for the use of misinformation and double-bluffs, it may be

Saturday

Patrick O’Flynn

Does Rishi Sunak really understand red wall voters?

Rishi Sunak thinks Boris Johnson goofed badly when he conspired to upend Commons standards procedures. And he agrees with his red wall colleagues that this appeared to place the government on the side of a privileged elite. That is certainly the standard interpretation of his comment this week that the government needed to do better – and indeed unattributable briefings by an ally say that he regarded the episode as a ‘mistake’ which should be acknowledged by someone of cabinet rank. But if red wall Tories are tempted to regard Sunak as the true keeper of their flame then I suggest they think again. Because while Johnson has indeed gaffed, the

Friday

James Forsyth

Will the Tories cut taxes before the next election?

The Tory party has reached a fork in the road, I say in the Times today. One path involves sticking to the spending plans, hoping to cut taxes before the next election and getting rid of the new perception of them as tax raisers. The other drags them into ever more spending, led by big increases in public sector pay, and ends with them going to the country as a high-tax party. In his Budget speech and his address to Tory MPs, Rishi Sunak made clear that his preference was for the former approach, which should cut taxes before the country goes to the polls again. But sticking to even the spending

John Ferry John Ferry

Nicola Sturgeon is flailing in response to the Budget

The big tax and spend budget. More Gordon Brown than George Osborne. Sunak’s spending spree. However you wish to describe it, one thing is clear: Rishi Sunak’s budget marks a radical departure from previous Conservative chancellors. And while it might have ruffled the feathers of some Tories, it’s also causing problems for the SNP. In some ways the break from Tory convention is no surprise. Calls by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2020 for rich countries to spend their way out of the pandemic – and then further calls this year to shell out to boost recovery – signalled a new economic orthodoxy that Sunak has tapped into. Austerity is

Thursday

The Spectator

Portrait of the week: Queen stays home, Boris rubbishes recycling and pay freeze thaws

Home The Queen will not attend the COP26 meeting in Glasgow next week; she had resumed light duties after having spent a night in hospital for ‘preliminary medical checks’. The Queen would address COP26 by means of a recorded video. ‘The recycling thing is a red herring,’ Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, told a press conference attended by schoolchildren. ‘You can only recycle plastic a couple of times, really. What you’ve got to do is stop the production of plastic.’ The protestors calling themselves Insulate Britain blocked main roads into London and approaches to the M25. Amazon Web Services was awarded a contract to provide a high-security cloud system for

George Osborne

My night of nostalgia with Boris and co.

Rishi Sunak had a pre-game Twix and a Sprite to prepare for this week’s impressive Budget. I used to have a cup of very sugary tea. It was a tip from our joint mentor, William Hague. It coats the throat in preparation for speaking in a rowdy chamber. Even then my voice would be hoarse by the end of an hour’s Budget statement. It’s hard to convey just how noisy it is standing there with a couple of hundred adults screaming at you from a few feet away. But on Wednesday the House of Commons seemed quieter than it used to be on these big days. I’m not sure why.

Wednesday

Katy Balls

Rishi Sunak’s low tax pitch to MPs

Is Rishi Sunak a low tax chancellor? He certainly likes to tell anyone who will listen that he is. Yet his actions tend to suggest the opposite. The tax burden is currently on track to reach its highest level since the early 1950s, and while Sunak unveiled one big tax slash in the Budget in the universal credit taper rate cut, the main thrust of Sunak’s announcements was spend, spend, spend. Tonight Sunak addressed Tory MPs at a meeting of the 1922 committee. After announcing £150 billion in extra public spending, Sunak sought to convince his party that, despite this, he was committed to lowering taxes. Having said in the chamber that