Conservative party

Monday

David Blackburn

Latest projections confirm deepening Labour decline, will it be terminal?

Well no surprise there – the Politics Home poll projection suggests that the Tory recovery, started by Cameron on Thursday night, comes at the expense of Labour but remains indecisive: ‘In the new projection, which incorporates all polls published up to and including Sunday 25th April, The Conservatives would be thirty six short of a majority, with 289 seats – 11 more than they were projected to win last week. Labour are projected to win 234 seats and the Lib Dems 94. Labour’s projected total has fallen by nine, while the Lib Dem total has fallen by four. The Tories are projected to gain a 35.1 per cent share of

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Meeting real people, the staple of campaigning

David Cameron is visiting Hampshire today, hitting both Labour and Lib Dem held seats. In a visit to Southampton University, he was confronted by a feisty Lib Dem supporting student who accused him of planning changes that would make it more difficult for working class kids like her to go to university. Cameron dealt with the question well. He said that the Tories would keep bursaries and that there simply isn’t the money to abolish tuition fees. He also pointed out that currently only 40 odd children on free school meals go to Oxford and that Tory plans to bust open the state monopoly in the provision of education would

Daniel Korski

Coalition government may be minimal government

Post-election deals are tough for those on the wings of political parties – the activists, the die-hards, the idealists. Those in the middle, by definition the pragmatists, find it easier to prioritise aims or to compromise in the short-term in order to win over the long-term. Any Con-Lib deal will be tough for the left-wing of the Lib Dems and the right-wing of the Conservative party. But both will have to accept that power is better than opposition and that being able to implement part of your party programme is better than carping on the sidelines, your manifesto languishing on never-visited websites. To make the most of a political shotgun

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Why Cameron was right about the regions

Given that Labour has put out a hilarious plea to discuss “issues” rather than personality (or lack thereof), I would like to rise to this challenge to discuss an excellent point raised by David Cameron on Friday: that the state spending/GDP ratio is far too high in many parts of the UK and needs to be lowered. Stating this utterly uncontroversial fact landed him in a bit of trouble, I suspect because of lack of understanding of the issues. So, in the spirit of Labour’s plea, here are some facts. Cameron told Paxo that: “In Northern Ireland, it is quite clear – and almost every party accepts this – that

Peter Hoskin

Just whom will the Lib Dems work with, then?

Two noteworthy entries, today, in the will-they-won’t-they game of coalition government.  The first from Nick Clegg in the Sunday Times: “You can’t have Gordon Brown squatting in No 10 just because of the irrational idiosyncrasies of our electoral system.” And the second from Paddy Ashdown speaking to the People: “Nick Clegg cannot work with David Cameron … We could not go into a coalition with the Tories, it wouldn’t work.” So, assuming both are true, it sounds as though Clegg would only work with a Labour party headed by someone other than Brown.  But don’t count on it.  I, for one, think it’s unlikely that Clegg will prop up an

Saturday

Martin Bright

Brown Must Manage the Next Twelve Days With Dignity

Let’s not forget that the Labour Party should not have been able to lose this election. I am still convinced that Cameron came to the Tory leadership with a two-election strategy. The swing needed to win a clear majority was always huge. Part of the reason that the party leadership has found it so difficult to retain the lead in the polls is that they could never quite belive their luck at the collapse of Labour support.  Likewise, the Lib Dem surge has happened partly because no one is quite convinced that the Tories are ready for government. But the real story of the next week and a half will

Daniel Korski

Ex-Obama aide “worried” about Tory Euroscepticism

One of Labour’s talking points during the election has been that even the US administration is worried about Conservative Europe policy and how a government led by David Cameron may marginalise Britain in Europe and hobble Europe in the world. Until now, there has been very little to prove the concern. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton has said nothing, nor has anyone in the White House. But two days ago came the clearest sign that the US administration may indeed be worried. In a blogpost, John Podesta, Bill Clinton’s former chief of staff, head of Barack Obama’s Transition team and founder of the Center for American Progress, the most

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Has the Lib Dem bubble burst?

Is this the end of the LibDem soufflé surge? Tomorrow’s News of the World has an Ipsos-Mori poll – conducted the day after the second debate – putting things back to where they were pre-debates: Tories with a six point lead over Labour and the LibDems lagging seven points behind Labour, i.e. 36-30-23. This is broadly where Mori had them in March. The polls are in a state of flux, to be sure. But Ipsos did a full, 1,200 weighted sample, telephone poll. Even on this basis, Cameron would be 42 seats short of a majority. But this is the best news he’s had since the first TV debate –

Peter Hoskin

When the going gets weird, the weird hire an Elvis impersonator

Really, what’s happened to the Labour campaign?  You know things are taking a turn for the worse when you read that Gordon Brown is taking a more high profile role to save his party from a third-place finish.  But then you see that high profile role in action, and, well … First there was an event which incorporated some deliciously ironic innuendo about the Tories’ spending cuts.  The PM lamented the fact that Jeremy Paxman didn’t press the Tory leader on claims that there is “too much” public spending in Northern Ireland and the North East, concluding that “there is no part of the United Kingdom that is safe from

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The Tories must sell their most radical policy: the Gove schools plan

The Spectator’s endorsement of David Cameron started with his ‘free schools’ policy – and we could have ended there. We said that this is, in itself, enough reason to vote Conservative. This week’s Economist has produced one of the best explanations of this policy, and its potential.  This is important because this election campaign shows that, while the public are indeed minded to oust Gordon Brown, they’re not terribly excited by the Tory offering. The Gove schools plan is something which, if properly expressed, cannot fail to capture the imagination. In my limited experience of persuading people why they should vote, I find the schools policy always works. The Tories,

Peter Hoskin

Tories growing used to a hung parliament in public and in private

Planting seeds, that’s what the Tories are doing – they’re planting the seeds of a Lib-Con alliance.  Yes, it’s a subtle process, and is couched in terms of denial and defiance.  But it’s still going on.  I mean, look at Cameron’s interview with Jeremy Paxman past night (video on Spectator Live), where he declined to rule out having Nick Clegg in his Cabinet – although, happily, he was more unequivocal on the subject of Vince Cable.  And then there’s Ken Clarke’s interview with the Daily Telegraph this morning, in which he says that the Conservative “starting point” for any coalition would be a refusal to compromise on their economic plans. 

Friday

Martin Bright

Why Not Vote Lib Dem?

There is a terrible desperation about the Tory approach to the Lib Dem surge. There is a clear desire to find some sort of killer story about Nick Clegg or a killer strategy to reassert David Cameron’s claim to be the candidate of change. What is odd is that Cameron seems to have forgotten what made him so attractive in 2005, which was that he was the candidate of the moderate, progressive centre ground.  The recession pushed the Conservative Party into the language of austerity – a message the British public is not yet ready to hear – and they have not recovered.  I have never understood why David Cameron

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

No, Gordon, this recession hasn’t been milder than others

Today’s new economic data gives a handy piece of ammo to the Conservatives.  It is untrue that, as Gordon Brown says, this recession was somehow milder than others. The economy contracted by 6.3 percent this time – it was 3.8 percent in the 1980s recession and just 2.4 percent in the early 1990s recession. I feel confident that the Conservatives will get this point across clearly, next time that Brown boasts that this recession has been somehow milder, thanks to his decision to “intervene” (ie, double our national debt). The increase in unemployment has also been worse than the 1990s, but not quite as bad as the 1980s (perhaps because

Peter Hoskin

GDP grows by 0.2 percent in first quarter of 2010

Now we know: the official preliminary estimate says that GDP grew by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year. So the double dip looks to have been averted (for now) – but not by much. The figure is at the low end of economists’ estimates and lower than the growth experienced in the final quarter of 2009. Labour, of course, will spin this as further proof that we can’t risk the recovery by voting for those dastardly Tories.  And the Tories will say that it shows just how damaging Gordon Brown has been for our economy.  But I wonder whether voters will choose between the two messages, or

Peter Hoskin

The morning after the debate before

So, like last week: what’s changed?  And, like last week, it’s probably too early to judge.  The insta-polls may have Cameron and Clegg on level footing, but, really, we need to wait for voting intention polls before coming to any firm conclusions.  As we saw the day after the first debate, they can work in quite surprising ways. My instinct, though, is that things will remain relatively steady.  The Clegg surge of last week was, at root, a cry for change from the electorate – any change.  So it will probably take more than a solid Cameron victory in one TV debate to have voters flooding back to the Tories. 

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Cameron starts to pull the Tory campaign out of the fire

The headlines will be “score draw”, but I’d say Cameron won – and comfortably. I write this as someone who could have happily have sunk a few pins into a voodoo doll of David Cameron earlier on this evening – for taking the Conservatives (and Britain) to this appalling point where he may yet lose the election. But he raised his game, substantially. At best, he spoke with passion and authenticity. This time, he looked like he was fighting for his political life, which (of course) he is. Things are looking up. Here’s my participant-by-participant verdict: Brown Brown was his normal automaton self. He does tend to mangle his words,

Thursday

James Forsyth

Cameron is much improved – but the Lib Dem bubble hasn’t burst

It seems that the general election of 2010 will turn on 90 minutes next Thursday. David Cameron was far better tonight than he was last week. This time he managed to bracket Brown and Clegg together and had the moment of the debate when he called Brown out on Labour’s leaflets claiming the Tories would scrap various things that pensioners currently get free. If there was a YouTube moment in the debate, it was that exchange when Brown said he didn’t authorise the leaflets making these claims. The Tory press team then delighted in pointing to a Labour party political broadcast where they had suggested the Tories would take away

Peter Hoskin

Has Brown blown it?

Gordon just can’t help himself, can he?  There can’t be a simple dividing line – oh no.  It has to be one built on exaggerations, half-truths and plain lies.  So it has always been with his brand of government, and for much of the time – think cuts vs investment – it has worked in his favour.  But tonight, despite a surprisingly punchy performance from the PM, it seems to have backfired dreadfully. The Tories are going big on those misleading Labour leaflets – and rightly so.  Brown denied that he authorised them.  But the fact that a Labour party political broadcast made similar claims about the Tories and old-age

Peter Hoskin

Cameron’s evening – as he and Brown fight back against the Clegg surge

Well, one thing was clear: Brown and Cameron have both been at the textbooks, staying behind for extra classes, and learning the lessons of last week.  They came into this TV debate prepared.  Not just for the very fact of Nick Clegg, but with strategies and soundbites to slow his advance.  The result was a more passionate and confrontational show than I expected. Brown was the biggest surprise on the night.  Sure, you have to apply the usual caveats and parameters: he is Gordon Brown, and being disingenuous and deluded is what he does.  But, all that considered, he was uncharacteristically sprightly, I thought.  His little prepared quips were half-way