Conservative party

Here comes Boris! The next Tory leadership fight has just begun

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_07_August_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”Harry Mount and Isabel Hardman discuss Boris’s parliamentary campaign” fullwidth=”no”] The View from 22 podcast [/audioplayer]So Boris has made his great leap. The blond king over the water has revealed his plans to cross the river, return to Parliament and assume what he believes is his rightful destiny — to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. The first signs came with his uncharacteristically Eurosceptic speech this week. Yes, he said, Britain could — perhaps should — leave Europe, if it couldn’t negotiate more favourable terms. This set him at odds with David Cameron and sent a ripple of excitement through the Tory grass roots. Next came the

Ukip need not fear Boris Johnson

So Boris Johnson is standing for parliament next year, triggering speculation about what would happen if David Cameron lost the election. Could we have Ed Miliband as prime minister, followed by Boris Johnson? Jon Stewart would have a field decade. Boris is easily the most popular Conservative politician around, both inside and outside the party, and is the only one to have genuine appeal with the public. People go up to him to shake his hand in the street, rather than just vomit everywhere, as is the case with most other Tories. Both he and Nigel Farage are jovial figures whose cheery, bumbling persona enables us to forgive any private

Isabel Hardman

Boris is ‘not expecting to get special treatment’

So what now for Boris? He’s got to go through the selection process for a constituency, which he hasn’t yet settled upon, although I’ve outlined some of the options that might work for this week’s magazine. The favourite is Uxbridge; but his camp today are adamant that other seats are in play. One source tells me: ‘He is not expecting to get any special treatment at all, and he is prepared to go through the selection process like any other candidate.’ But the important thing for Boris is that he’s answered the big question before the Scottish independence referendum and party conference season, which were the two deadlines his secret

Steerpike

The punters back Boris for Tory leader

The money is moving. Boris Johnson is now the bookies’ favourite to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. According to Ladbrokes he’s at 9/4, with Theresa May and George Osborne trailing him at 4/1 and 5/1, respectively. Plainly, Boris reckons that David Cameron is on-course to lose the next election, or else he wouldn’t have made today’s annoucemnent. The turf accountants agree with him. They have Ed Miliband at 4/5 on to be the next Prime Minister, while BoJo stands at 5/1. Could it ever happen for BoJo, though? He’s 7/2 to make it to Number 10 ‘at any time’. Talking of bets, our own columnist Toby Young

Isabel Hardman

Where could Boris stand?

This week’s Spectator charts Boris Johnson’s return to Parliament – and examines the network of MPs already helping him get there. You’ll have to wait till tomorrow to read Harry Mount’s piece, but here’s a preview, examining where the Mayor could stand as an MP. Boris Johnson has spent an impressively long time dodging questions about whether he is going to stand as an MP in 2015, and where. He manages to do this by pulling a special bewildered face, as if he’s just an innocent chap who finds himself inexplicably in a spot of bother, rather than someone who has been leading everyone on about his political ambitions for

Baroness Warsi – commendable but stunningly wrong

I was a little saddened by Baroness Warsi’s resignation. I like the woman; it is an odd and disturbing thing to say, but I felt I had more in common with her – a Muslim, Asian, woman – than almost any other prominent Tory. I’m not sure why this is. Perhaps class has something to do with it. I’m no Conservative but I think Cameron could have made more of her: he’s short of people who a). possess a vagina b). were state school educated c). come from ethnic minorities and d). talk as if they are members of the human race. She resigned on a point of principle, which

Isabel Hardman

Tory minister: Govt ‘failure’ on Gaza is sowing seeds of General Election defeat

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_07_August_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”Douglas Murray and Tim Stanley discuss Baroness Warsi’s resignation” startat=462] Listen [/audioplayer]One of the risks of Sayeeda Warsi’s resignation was that it would encourage other ministers uneasy about the government’s response to the situation in Gaza to break ranks. She is certainly trying to encourage that by alleging that other Foreign Office ministers have been uneasy with the decisions being taken recently. But I’ve just spoken to another Tory minister who is unhappy, and worried particularly about the effects that this will have on the Conservatives’ chances next year. Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the minister tells me: ‘Warsi knows that our failure in Gaza will damage

Boris Johnson’s European crusade to save the Tory party

The Sunday Telegraph has news that Boris Johnson will give a speech next week in which he will throw his weight behind a report, published by Volterra, calling for Britain to renegotiate its membership of the EU. The Telegraph reports: ‘The capital’s gross domestic product (GDP), currently £350 bn — or just over a fifth of the UK economy — would grow to £640 bn by 2034 if Britain stayed in a reformed EU and adopted policies encouraging more trade with the world’s fastest-growing markets, the report will say.  But if the UK left the EU, while pursuing its own trade-friendly policies regardless, the London economy would still grow to £615 bn over

Balls tries to defuse the tax bombshell

Ed Balls’ interview with the Telegraph today is a demonstration of what he learnt working for Gordon Brown in opposition. He is at pains to deny that he is planning any major tax rises; he doesn’t want to give the Tories the chance to claim Labour are planning a ‘tax bombshell’. He stresses that he understands that ‘People feel they are paying too much tax already’ and emphasises that he ‘would rather all tax rates were lower’. He also explicitly rules out a National Insurance increase to pay for extra spending on the NHS and a so-called ‘death tax’. Interestingly, Balls also restates his desire to limit EU immigration. He

The Tories must commit to more defence spending in the next parliament

Nato is 65 years old this year; but there’s little cause for celebration. The Defence Select Committee’s latest report suggests that the populations of western Europe and North America are lukewarm about Nato’s collective defence guarantee – the principle that an attack on one Nato member is an attack on all. Paragraph 70 quotes research conducted in the aftermath of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Georgia in 2008; it found that less than 50 per cent of the populations of major Nato powers would support the defence of the Baltic States if they were attacked. The report explains that the substantial Russian minorities in Latvia and Estonia, under the influence of

David Cameron hints at tax cuts for Middle England

The Telegraph’s Christopher Hope tweets the news that David Cameron is open to raising the threshold for the 40p rate: NEWS! PM: “I would love to raise the 40p tax threshold, I understand the problem, but would have to look at the books before doing it” — Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) July 30, 2014   The Telegraph has been pushing for this change for some time. Cameron has, in political terms, flashed a bit of thigh at Middle England. One of the strange features of this parliament is how little credit the government gets for keeping taxes low. This sense was reinforced recently by one of Lord Ashcroft’s polls, which found

The mysterious case of David Ruffley’s letter

There is much hullaballoo this morning about how slow the Tories were to act over David Ruffley, the disgraced MP who announced last night that he will not stand for Bury St. Edmunds at the next election following the fallout from his accepting a police caution after a violent domestic incident with his former partner. Mr S understands that Ruffley told Tory High Command that his former partner had written a letter which downplayed the domestic incident and said that Ruffley’s acceptance of a caution was a way to resolve the issue quickly and amicably. It was thought that this letter, when produced, would head off criticism of Ruffley. But the stern

David Cameron aims at Ukip and attacks Labour with immigration clamp-down

The government has unveiled a set of measures to curb immigration. David Cameron has written an article in the Telegraph about what the government has already achieved and what it plans to do now. He has three themes. 1). To tackle illegal immigration. Cameron says that the government has shut more than 750 of ‘bogus’ colleges. He wants to go further: colleges will lose their licenses if 10 per cent of their pupils are refused visas. Cameron also repeats some of the provisions of the Immigration Act 2014. From November, for example, a system will be imposed to ensure that landlords have to account for the immigration status of their

David Ruffley to stand down as an MP

David Ruffley has announced that he is standing down as an MP at the next election. Ruffley’s decision follows the story about him being cautioned by the police following a domestic incident with his partner going from being a local story to a national one, driven in large part by the indefatigable Guido Fawkes. Ruffley’s decision to resign has spared the Conservatives what would have been a difficult decision. On the one hand, there was the issue of domestic violence and its total unacceptability. On the other, there was the duty of care that the party owed an MP who has had some difficulties in the past few years. But

Presumption against fracking in our beautiful countryside is welcome

The government’s announcement today that fracking will not take place in National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty save ‘in exceptional circumstances and where it can be demonstrated they are in the public interest’ is a welcome and sensible move. It may indeed be in the national interest to exploit a new source of energy, but these landscapes are specially protected in the national interest, too. The government states that countryside ‘adjacent’ to these protected areas will also be covered by the policy. That will be a relief to the residents of Wisborough Green and Kirdford in my constituency, two villages in beautiful countryside close to the South Downs

Labour confirms Tory strategy: Vote Nigel, Get Ed

Talk to most Tory strategists about Ukip and Ed Miliband and they say something along the lines of ‘Vote Farage, get Miliband’. They hope that this will deter people from voting Ukip or win back those Ukip supporters who are not irreconcilable to the Tories. The Telegraph has news that Labour’s private polling confirms the Tory view: Ed Miliband will win Downing Street if Ukip polls 9 per cent of voters, which it is more than capable of doing on current projections. The Tories, I suspect, will be fairly pleased that Labour has published this information. It reinforces what we’ve known all along: an unpopular left-wing party will win power

Which party has the most MPs’ children in Parliament?

Commons inheritance Emily Benn, granddaughter of Tony and niece of Hilary, has won the right to stand for Labour in Croydon South. Which party produces the most political dynasties? Current MPs who had a parent in the Commons: CONSERVATIVE James Arbuthnot, Richard Benyon, Dominic Grieve, Ben Gummer, Nick Hurd, Andrew Mitchell, Nicholas Soames, Mark Pawsey, Laura Sandys, Robin Walker, Bill Wiggin LABOUR Hilary Benn, John Cryer, Lindsay Hoyle, Anas Sawar, Andy Sawford, Alison Seabeck d.u.p. Ian Paisley Jnr Air scares The loss of a second Malaysian Airways airliner means that the number of worldwide casualties in civilian air disasters — 827 so far this year — has already exceeded that

Melanie McDonagh

Is it time for ‘nose-peg Toryism’?

Before the election in 2005, the magnificently grand Polly Toynbee made a generous offer to Guardian readers reluctant to vote for Tony Blair after Iraq. ‘There is much to be proud of in voting Labour — but I have a free offer for the reluctant. On my desk is a basket of wooden nose-pegs marked “Labour”. Any reluctant voter can have one of these to wear to the polls; apply here now,’ she said irresistibly. I seem to recall there was a bit of a run on them. I wonder whether the point has come for some obliging Tory journalist to make the same offer to disgruntled Conservatives. There is,

Cameron’s Lords mess

In the last reshuffle, David Cameron made Tina Stowell the leader of the House of Lords. But, astonishingly, he didn’t make her a full member of the Cabinet, giving her only the right to attend. This, understandably, outraged peers; they quite rightly feel that the leader of the second chamber should be in the Cabinet. It also led to jibes that Cameron was paying a woman less to do the same work as a man, her predecessor Jonathan Hill had been a full Cabinet minister and had the salary to go with it. In an attempt to dampen this story down, it was announced that Stowell’s salary would be topped

The carnival is over for the Notting Hill set

It is the Sunday after the reshuffle before. Today’s papers are brimming with post reshuffle stories; and not of the kind that Downing Street will like. The Mail on Sunday reveals that Philip Hammond demanded an assurance that he wouldn’t just be keeping the seat warm for George Osborne at the Foreign Office. While the Sunday Times reports on how Owen Paterson and Liam Fox plan to ‘rough up’ the Prime Minister over Europe. The animosity of the right towards Cameron is, perhaps, to be expected. But one of the most striking things about the reshuffle is that it has severed the emotional bonds between Cameron and the modernisers who