Coronavirus

Tuesday

Kate Andrews

Extending the furlough scheme comes at colossal cost

One of the most generous Covid-19 emergency measures in Europe has been extended until the end of October – with some caveats. Chancellor Rishi Sunak has just told the House of Commons that the furlough scheme – which covers up to 80 per cent of an employees’ wages, with a cap of £2,500 per month – will continue to operate unchanged between now and the end of July. From August, furloughing will become more flexible, allowing for part-time work. The scheme remains extended to all sectors, avoiding the optics of industry favouritism, which could easily extend to regional favouritism, given the dependence on certain sectors in different parts of the

Matthew Lynn

Sunak’s furlough scheme is a victim of its own success

Who are we kidding? If you are still furloughed through July, August, and September, the chances are that your job isn’t on hold as you wait for lockdown to gradually be lifted or for your company to get back to normal levels of demand. In truth, you have probably been fired. It’s just that no one got around to telling you yet. Rishi Sunak’s coronavirus job retention scheme, to give its full title, has in many ways been one of the most successful government projects we have seen for years. More than six million workers and half a million companies have taken it up. It has been brilliantly implemented by

Monday

James Kirkup

These kids just got screwed by lockdown – and no one bothered to tell them

Here are some numbers that too many people who work in and around politics don’t know. In any given year, around 700,000 young people turn 18 and leave school. A little under half of them go on to higher education (HE). The other half, around 360,000, do something else. Roughly half of these non-HE school leavers would normally get a job. Another 60,000 or so would become apprentices. And quite a lot – more than 100,000 – would go down in the stats as ‘not sustained’ or ‘activity not captured’ meaning that whatever they did, it didn’t last, or that they have dropped out of the view of educational statisticians.

Andrew Willshire

How Number 10 should illustrate its Covid alert formula

Following the Prime Minister’s address last night, Twitter was ablaze with mockery of the equation the government will use to determine our route out of lockdown. In particular, people were keen to show their mastery of primary school-level maths, by observing that ‘if the number of infections is 183,000 and R is 0.7, our threat level is 183,000.7 – how does changing R change the threat level?’ Others were quick to point out that: ‘R is a ratio and the number of infections is an integer so it’s meaningless to add them.’ However, at some point during their GCSEs they must have nodded off, because they would otherwise have encountered

Melanie McDonagh Melanie McDonagh

Lockdown could be the perfect time to eradicate STIs

As we can see from the reaction to the PM’s speech, there are several ways of looking at the lockdown. Some people can’t wait to get back to business. Lots are frankly nervous at this sort of talk. And there are those, like my friend the clap consultant, who see it as an opportunity. Let me explain. My friend is a consultant in sexually transmitted diseases whose special subject is HIV and associated conditions. Viruses being his home turf, he takes a dim view of Covid-19. It’s an awful thing, he observes. ‘It’s racist, sexist, ageist. You wouldn’t have it to dinner.’ However, it does provide a God-given opportunity (if

Sunday

Robert Peston

Two big gaps in Boris Johnson’s lockdown statement

There were three messages in Boris Johnson’s address to the nation, and quite a lot of important gaps. The messages were: Because the Covid-19 epidemic has been tempered but not eliminated, lockdown continues – though will be modified very gradually; It would be a jolly good thing if a few more of us could return to work, especially on construction sites and in factories, so long as that can be done in a way that does not imperil health; The pace at which lockdown is modified, and whether it is modified at all, is in the collective hands of the British people, and will be wholly determined by whether we

James Ball

The R-number – and the danger of false certainty

Not much about Boris Johnson’s Sunday night television address was clear. The one definite new measure – one which will shape coverage for weeks to come – is the UK’s new ‘COVID Alert Level’, a five-stage measure that the prime minister said would be determined primarily by ‘the R’ – the rate at which the virus grows. There’s just one problem with that. It’s a figure few people think we have any real ability to track day-to-day. In making its decisions, the government has very little scope for error: it knows lockdown comes at a huge economic toll. But it also knows that spotting a rise in cases just a

The Spectator

Full Text: Prime Minister’s ‘roadmap’ to ease lockdown

Here is the full transcript of the Prime Minister’s address to the nation: ‘It is now almost two months since the people of this country began to put up with restrictions on their freedom – your freedom – of a kind that we have never seen before in peace or war. And you have shown the good sense to support those rules overwhelmingly. You have put up with all the hardships of that programme of social distancing. Because you understand that as things stand, and as the experience of every other country has shown, it’s the only way to defeat the coronavirus – the most vicious threat this country has

Matthew Taylor

Sunday shows round-up: Stay at home message is still ‘very important’, says Robert Jenrick

Robert Jenrick – Staying at home still ‘very important’ Sophy Ridge began this morning interviewing Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick. The Prime Minister will address the nation at 7pm tonight, updating the government’s Covid-19 strategy, and it is anticipated that he will outline a vision for the end of the lockdown. The official message will change from ‘stay at home’ to the more open-ended ‘stay alert’. Jenrick said that this did not mean the public should expect to see enormous changes in the near future: RJ: Staying at home will still be a very important part of our message to the public. But people will also need to go to work,

Saturday

Charles Moore

Spare a thought for undertakers during this pandemic

Our neighbour, the much-respected local undertaker, conducted twice as many funerals in April as in the same month last year. One might be tempted to say ‘It’s an ill wind…’, but in fact it has been grim, both from a professional and a human point of view. ‘We have had,’ he says — with a double meaning he notices only after he has said it — ‘to think outside the box.’ Coffins are in short supply, ‘unless people want the willow or bamboo’. With no new traditional wooden ones available until early June, he has had to get in cardboard versions as a back-up. The firm is not allowed to

Friday

John Lee

Ten reasons to end the lockdown now

Writing in this magazine a month ago, I applauded the government’s stated aim of trying to follow the science in dealing with Covid. Such promises are easier made than kept. Following science means understanding science. It means engaging with rival interpretations of the limited data in order to tease out what is most important in what we don’t know. Instead, the government in the UK (and many other places) seems uninterested in alternative viewpoints. The chosen narrative – that lockdown has saved countless lives – has been doggedly followed by all spokespeople. No doubt is allowed. We have been seeing the groupthink response to a perceived external threat that Jonathan

Stephen Daisley Stephen Daisley

Starmer’s Telegraph splash is a perfect piece of politics

The Daily Telegraph is considered the voice of the Conservative grassroots – so today’s splash will have driven a sliver of ice into minister’ veins. Here is the new leader of the opposition, a knight of the realm no less, urging the government to get a grip of the Covid-19 outbreak in care homes. ‘We owe so much to the generation of VE Day,’ he says. ‘We must do everything we can to care for and support them through the current crisis.’ On the day we remember the end of hostilities in Europe, Sir Keir Starmer has planted his tanks boldly on the Tories’ lawn. We should be wary of reading

Steven Fielding

Boris Johnson should be wary of comparisons with Churchill

Despite his carefully-crafted bumbling image, Boris Johnson is anything but daft. When vying to replace the apparently rootless Tory moderniser David Cameron as Conservative party leader he knew what to do: write a book praising Winston Churchill. 95 per cent of Conservative members regard the wartime Prime Minster favourably. Johnson lost out to Theresa May in 2016 thanks to Michael Gove’s treachery. But during the Brexit referendum campaign he returned to familiar territory by drawing lurid parallels between the European Union and Nazi Germany, if only to imply that by leading the Leave campaign he was our modern-day Churchill. And when the Conservative leadership become vacant again last year he

Thursday

Robert Peston

Covid-19 is not under control in care homes and hospitals

What worried cabinet ministers today was the disclosure to them that the rate of transmission of Covid-19 is not properly under control in either hospitals or care homes. In the community, R – the rate of transmission – is probably as low as 0.5/0.6, which means its savage progress through the population has been arrested. But in the very places where the frail and sick are supposed to be shielded, too many people are still being newly infected. Ministers were especially shocked to learn that some hospitals are really struggling to manage the rate of spread of illness. That is why Dominic Raab announced today that for the UK as

James Kirkup James Kirkup

Keeping schools closed until September would hammer poor kids

Schools should stay closed until September, according to a big teaching union: In view of the continued and pressing public health challenges and the considerable task that will be required to ensure that every school is ready to admit increased numbers of children and adults into safe learning and working environments, the NASUWT urges ministers to act to end speculation on the reopening of schools beyond the current restrictions prior to September 2020. That’s the latest from Patrick Roach, head of the NASUWT. This is a hardening of the line from teaching unions, and one that I think has the potential to cause significant tensions with the government. It’s worth noting

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Can we rely on a V-shaped recovery?

Can the UK expect a V-shape recovery? The Bank of England has this morning published data revealing very deep V, suggesting a complete economic recovery in a matter of months: a 25 per cent plunge in growth in Q2, followed by a 14 per cent and 11 per cent boom in Q3 and Q4. That would be the sharpest collapse in 200 years followed by the sharpest recovery in 300 years: more of a bungee jump than a V. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it’s an ‘illustrative scenario’ rather than a forecast. It’s not just lockdown: living with the virus takes a big economic toll The

Christopher Snowdon

Are public health cuts to blame for the UK’s pandemic response?

As we begin to learn best practice in the fight against Covid-19, it is notable that the handful of countries that have reduced the number of new cases to zero have used diagnostic testing and contact tracing on a large scale and have recommended the use of face masks. After two frantic months, the UK has just about got a handle on testing, but its embryonic contact tracing app has the hallmarks of every government IT fiasco, and there are barely has enough face masks for health workers, let alone the general public. No country can prepare perfectly for a new viral pandemic, but Britain’s public health system has fallen

Ross Clark Ross Clark

How do we know which lockdown measures should be lifted first?

Today, the cabinet has to decide where to go next with the lockdown – although the decision will not be announced until Sunday. Boris Johnson has talked of a ‘menu of options’ for relaxing some of the measures, but we have been warned not to expect too much. The government has also distanced itself from speculation that rules on outdoor exercise will be loosened, as well as garden centres and a few other businesses allowed to reopen. How does anyone know which lockdown measures have been effective and which haven’t? A team of epidemiologists led by Paul Hunter have attempted to do that, and their pre-published paper may well feed

Douglas Murray

Hugging China hasn’t done us any favours

Like nearly everything named a ‘scandal’, ‘affair’ or given the suffix ‘gate’, almost nobody now remembers the Dalai Lama affair. But back in 2012, flush with recently acquired power and optimism, David Cameron and a man called Nick Clegg went to see the Dalai Lama while he was on a trip to London. Whether Cameron and Clegg knew what they were getting into wasn’t clear. The pair had a short meeting with the Lama at St Paul’s Cathedral — or at least in one of those bland conference ante-rooms English cathedrals constructed in the last century to atone for the splendours next door. Looking like a couple of travelling salesmen

Susan Hill Susan Hill

In the Covid era, age isn’t just a number

When I told my seven-year-old granddaughter, over Zoom, how much I missed being with her, I added: ‘Maybe it won’t be much longer before I can see you.’ But she said that it would be some time, as ‘the government are going to stop old people seeing anyone because of the virus’. Asked what was meant by ‘old people’, she said: ‘I think anybody more than 54.’ Clearly some misunderstanding. At nearly 25 years beyond 54, I am correctly classed as old; some days I feel it, most days I don’t, but I am well, have most of my marbles and am working hard. Age is just a number. Except