Coronavirus

Friday

James Kirkup

The Sunak supremacy

In some ways, it’s easy and even important to keep Rishi Sunak’s performance in announcing his coronavirus job retention scheme in perspective. It should, after all, be pretty easy to be popular in politics when you are offering to spend literally limitless amounts of money protecting people from economic hardship. A cynic would also say that it’s relatively easy to look grave and statesmanlike when you’re standing next to a prime minister who can still look more inclined to play Prince Hal than Henry V. But even taking those things into account, I still consider Sunak’s performance one of the most impressive I’ve seen from a British politician in more

Matthew Lynn

Rishi Sunak’s wartime economy

At least no one can say it isn’t bold. The United States is fiddling around with some possible cuts to payroll taxes. Most of Europe is stuck with some printed money from the ECB. But the UK is embarking on one of the most radical experiments in modern economic theory, and one that will no doubt be studied for decades to come. With his latest announcement today, a whole 48 hours after his last intervention, the Chancellor Rishi Sunak has effectively turned the UK into a wartime economy. This is the most extensive intervention in the economy ever made by a supposedly free market government anywhere in the world The

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Oxford Economics predicts a quick post-virus recovery – with one big caveat

Britain is midway through a deep recession: of that there is no doubt. But what next? Oxford Economics has today been one of the first to offer an answer, predicting a V-shaped economic recovery (sharp economic downturn and sharp economic revival) and near-complete economic repair. It is, of course, a guess: all forecasts are. But it’s one worth looking into in a bit more detail. All published economic forecasts pre-Covid-19 (including those accompanying the Chancellor’s Budget last week) are defunct, so this is an early test – one that factors in the Government’s policy of ‘social distancing’ and the profound impact this has on business as usual. Oxford Economics has

Dimitri Simes

How coronavirus derailed the largest Nato exercise in 25 years

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to spread across Europe, the United States has reduced its participation in a Nato military exercise that was set to be one of the alliance’s largest since the end of the Cold War. In April and May, the Defender-Europe 20 exercise was meant to feature 37,000 troops from 18 countries, including 20,000 soldiers deployed from the United States. It was planned to take place across ten European countries, with the bulk of the drills in Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states. Shortly after the WHO declared that Europe had become the new ‘epicentre of the pandemic’, the Trump administration enacted a travel ban for foreign visitors from

Robert Peston Robert Peston

The Bank of England’s coronavirus gamble

It’s very interesting, and important, that the Bank of England is encouraging banks to turn half a blind eye to likely coronavirus losses on loans to businesses and mortgage borrowers – in the hope that banks don’t suddenly stop lending for fear future losses will deplete their capital. After the 2008 banking crisis, this is something I never thought I would see, but it’s probably an appropriate measure. Given the sheer number of businesses and mortgage-borrowers in trouble, the damage to the economy would be made much worse if banks stopped or cut lending for prudential reasons. What matters is that the Bank had better be right that the economy and businesses will

James Chater

Why Taiwan blames Britain for their second wave of infections

Since the first outbreak of coronavirus, Taiwan has been seen as an unlikely source of stability. Over 400,000 Taiwanese live and work on the Chinese mainland and, due to diplomatic tensions with Beijing, Taiwan is not a member of the World Health Organisation. Despite this, as infections began to rise in Japan and then exploded in South Korea, Taiwan’s daily increase of cases never surpassed five. The Taiwanese government’s robust response to illness, which has paralysed so many other parts of the world, garnered much international praise. But a fresh spike in cases has put Taiwan on the back foot. On Sunday, six new infections were confirmed, the highest number in a single

Thursday

Katy Balls

Boris Johnson’s optimistic coronavirus press conference

Boris Johnson struck an optimistic note in his fourth press conference of the week. The Prime Minister attempted to answer the question of how long Brits ought to expect to have to change their lifestyle in order to prevent the spread of coronavirus. Johnson said that he believed the UK could ‘turn the tide’ on the disease within 12 weeks:‘I think we can turn the tide in the next 12 weeks, but it depends on collective, resolute action. The encouraging thing is the more disciplined we can all be in doing that, the greater the chances the scientific community will be able soon to come up with fantastic results on

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Could measures we’ve taken to stop Covid-19 already be saving lives?

Perspective is a bit in short supply at the moment but if you want a brief respite from the onslaught of bad news, take a look at these statistics. They are Office for National Statistics figures for the total numbers of deaths from respiratory diseases in England and Wales for February this year, compared with last year. 2019 2020 7 February 1,918 1,572 (-346) 14 February 1,931 1,586 (-345) 21 February 1,890 1,587 (-303) 28 February 1,786 1,517 (-269) There are many influences on the level of deaths from respiratory disease: temperature, pollution levels and so on. They were even higher in 2018 when the country was gripped by the

Steerpike Steerpike

Michel Barnier tests positive for coronavirus

For those wondering how coronavirus will affect the Brexit negotiations, one immediate issue has arisen today: Michel Barnier has contracted the disease. The EU’s chief negotiator revealed the diagnosis on social media this morning, and said that ‘I am doing well and in good spirits. I am following all the necessary instructions, as is my team.’ So far, the UK and EU have continued with the Brexit negotiations, even as the virus spreads across the continent. But now that the EU’s chief negotiator and team are presumably in quarantine, the chances of a deal being reached by the end of the year are looking increasingly slim.  In the meantime, Mr S wishes

David Butterfield

The case for a national hardship fund

As normal life rapidly shuts up shop around us, there’s a need to salvage something positive from the chaos. So perhaps there’s a good story yet to be written about that oldest but most unfashionable of virtues, charity. Before you roll your eyes, I am not saying that, in a time of such sudden and sharp economic downturn, we must dig deep into our pockets to help those struggling more than us. That’s admirable behaviour at any time, and if it’s still an option for you, all power to your elbow. Instead, I have in mind those businesses and entrepreneurs that – by virtue of this sudden inversion of human

Wednesday

Melanie McDonagh

School closures leave parents with a serious headache

Well, thanks a whole lot, Gavin W. The announcement that schools would close in England from Friday was pretty well inevitable when Scotland and Wales announced that this was the way they were going, but it doesn’t make the decision less tricky for parents. It’s not apparent that the move was made for reasons of clinical necessity – viz, that children were likely to cross infect each other and their teachers – so much as the reality that teachers were downing tools and simply not turning up. Certainly, that was the case with my daughter’s school, with a number of teacher no-shows, as well as pupils absences. Though it was

Ian Acheson Ian Acheson

How will the government handle coronavirus in our prisons?

Covid-19 has entered our prison system. There are now at least two confirmed coronavirus cases in HMPs Manchester and Highdown in Surrey, which means staff and prisoners there are in isolation and hospital. This was inevitable, and as I have said previously, our overcrowded and under-resourced jails need special, urgent consideration. Prisons incubate many malign things behind their walls. Local prisons in particular are overcrowded and insanitary transit camps for people and viruses. So, now that prisoners have become infected, what’s to be done? The Government does have a plan. I understand that next week legislation will be introduced that will allow certain risk assessed prisoners serving more than 12

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Andrew Bailey’s stark warning about the coronavirus ’emergency’

The new Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has warned that the UK is facing an ‘economy emergency’ and the worst is yet to come. Speaking to Sky News, Bailey said the UK economy needs to brace itself for a ‘very big downturn’. ‘Everything’s on the table that is reasonable,’ he said, referring to the policy tool kit at the BoE’s disposal to help manage any economic crisis in the coming weeks and months. The governor’s warning comes a day after Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s unprecedented £350bn coronavirus stimulus and hours after the pound plummeted below $1.20 – its lowest level against the US dollar since 1985. Investors are abandoning the pound and flocking to the

Lloyd Evans Lloyd Evans

PMQs: A Commons cowed by coronavirus

Last week Britain was a free-market democracy. Now we’re living in a one-party state. The transition became clear at PMQs today where General-Secretary Johnson gave bland and reassuring replies to super-soft questions from tame MPs. The House was half empty. Members practised a sort of semi-self-isolation. They sat apart from each other by a distance of about four feet, or the width of Cyril Smith. The mood – one of hunched defiance – doesn’t suit the Commons which prefers a rowdy, combative carnival atmosphere. All political differences seem to have been cancelled. Previous sins are forgiven. Past idiocies forgotten. Jeremy Corbyn went into a U-turn on small businesses. For years

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Our politicians are only trying to do their best

This is a time for generosity and kindness; a moment for the cutting of slack and the making of allowances. These are, as most people now accept, unprecedented times. A great disruption to ordinary life that eclipses the two other great shocks to the system experienced this century. 9/11 and the great crash of 2008 were, in their different ways, man-made calamities. This is a beast of a different order altogether. And that, I think, should prompt a reappraisal of our political leaders. To say they are making it up as they go is not a criticism but, rather, obvious reality. What else can be expected in these circumstances? None

Ed Prideaux

How Mao’s medicine made modern China

History repeats itself, said Marx, first as tragedy and then as farce. And when it comes to the world’s latest pandemic, China and the coronavirus are no historical exception. ‘Mao’s Flu Strikes’, The Observer declared in November 1968. ‘200,000 people are ill with Mao’s Flu in Rome’, the paper reported, ‘and the epidemic is expected to grow in the next few weeks.’ While sixties’ Brits may have sidestepped today’s loo roll stockpiling, the ‘Mao Flu Panic’ was soon high on people’s minds. By its conclusion in 1969, Mao flu – now known historically as ‘Hong Kong flu’ – had killed around one million people worldwide, including 100,000 in the US

John Keiger John Keiger

The arrogance of France’s coronavirus rhetoric

‘At the beginning of a pestilence and when it ends, there’s always a propensity for rhetoric. In the first case, habits have not yet been lost; in the second, they’re returning. It is in the thick of a calamity that one gets hardened to the truth – in other words to silence.’ Albert Camus, The Plague. Faced with Covid-19, France has not yet reached that moment of silence when one gets hardened to the truth. Rhetoric still has the upper hand as President Macron’s address to the nation on Monday night revealed. Repeating six times that France was at war with the virus and that consequently she had to move

Tuesday

Kate Andrews

Will the Chancellor’s stimulus tackle Covid-19 fears?

Last week’s £12 billion stimulus package to tackle the health and economic consequences of Covid-19 now seems like a drop in the ocean compared to Rishi Sunak’s announcement this evening: an astonishing £330 billion package of guarantees for business loans, up to £20 billion worth of tax cuts and grants for small and medium size businesses to stay afloat. As well: a year of full business rate relief for all companies in retail, hospitality and leisure sectors. And, he says, this is only the beginning. The Chancellor needed to indicate to business (and markets) that this Government is serious about keeping the economy going. But this isn’t a crash: this

Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak: we will do whatever it takes to support the economy during the crisis

The coronavirus pandemic is a public health emergency. But it is also an economic emergency. We have never, in peacetime, faced an economic fight like this one. I know that people are deeply worried. I know that people’s anxiety about the disease itself is matched only by their anxiety about their livelihoods. Last week, I set out an initial economic response in the Budget. I promised to do whatever it takes to support our economy through this crisis – and that if the situation changed, I would not hesitate to take further action. That is what I want to begin doing today. This struggle will not be overcome by a

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Finding the right corona stimulus won’t be easy

All governments are going to have to come up with vast stimulus packages over the next few weeks or face mass bankruptcies and job losses as the economy is paralysed by measures to combat the coronavirus. But was it really wise for President Macron to announce on Monday evening that no business will go bankrupt as a result of the coronavirus crisis? True, there are a great number of businesses all across the world that risk going to pot through no fault of their own. You might run the best pizza parlour in the world but still you face going under if your government orders you to close down for