Covid-19

Could the Covid crash spark another Arab Spring?

They said we were going to uncouple from the Middle East. Barack Obama, they said, was going to pivot to Asia. Donald Trump was, finally, going to get the United States the hell out of there. Intellectually, politically and, most importantly of all, militarily, we were going to put this most vexatious of regions behind us. It was, they assured us, a new day. They were wrong. Obama was drawn back in by his desire to strike a nuclear deal with Iran. Trump talked a good isolationist game but then droned Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad. Now we are in the midst of a coronavirus-induced oil crash. Now the Middle East

Isabel Hardman

Hancock struggles to answer questions on testing and quarantine

Matt Hancock has the air of a student who, having boasted about how great their final dissertation will be, has just realised that they have days to research and write the whole thing. When asked if he is going to meet his target of 100,000 daily tests for coronavirus by the end of the month, the Health Secretary continues to insist that he will, while struggling to explain how.  He gave a statement in the new hybrid Commons this afternoon in which he was repeatedly questioned both by MPs who were in the Chamber and those on video link about what was going wrong with the testing target. He struggled

Why ministers are reluctant to change face mask guidance

‘Will the public be asked to wear face masks in public?’ This is a topic of debate today for the government’s SAGE committee of scientific advisers. Although the government dismissed the idea early on in the coronavirus pandemic, many other countries have since changed their own advice in support of them (read Dr John Lee’s analysis of the medical evidence here). Chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance has recently suggested they could play a role in stemming infection: The evidence on masks is much more persuasive for masks stopping you giving it to somebody than it is for preventing you catching it. We have a review ongoing at the moment on the evidence

Have we reached the peak?

At the risk of breaching lockdown etiquette, I feel it would be remiss not to mention that the stats on Covid-19 infections, hospital admissions and deaths have been stable or falling for around a fortnight. Since 5 April, there have been many more tests for coronavirus carried out, but numbers testing positive have been falling, which is significant. Also, today’s reported deaths of 449 are considerably fewer than half the peak of 10 days ago – and although we all know the daily reported total of deaths is less than the actual total, and that there is often a dip after a weekend, that trend is like-for-like, so it is

Kate Andrews

Covid-19 business loans aren’t yet working

Last week’s report from the Office for Budget Responsibility made waves with its latest economic scenario, estimating a 35 per cent collapse in GDP in the second quarter of the year. But could even that dire prediction have been too optimistic? While the downturn was estimated by the OBR to be sharp, so too was the economy bounce-back, creating a V-shaped recovery and quick economic improvement. But internal Treasury assessments revealed by the Times today predict a U-shape recovery: a longer, more painful return to the status quo. In both scenarios, the millions made unemployed by the Covid-19 lockdown take longer to return to work than the economy does to technically

Steerpike

‘You are endangering the world’: German tabloid goes to war with China

Could China have done more to prevent the coronavirus pandemic? One tabloid editor in Germany certainly thinks so and an extraordinary bust-up has broken out between the Chinese government and his newspaper as a result. The row kicked off last week when Bild – the best-selling paper in Germany – published an editorial entitled ‘What China owes us’, calling for China to pay reparations of £130 billion for the damage done by the outbreak of the virus.  Later that day, the Chinese embassy in Berlin then responded with an open letter saying ‘we regard the style in which you ‘campaign’ against China in your current report on page two as infamous… Those

Did the government really ‘brush aside’ coronavirus fears in January?

Was Matt Hancock shrugging off Coronavirus in late January? An ‘insight’ article in the Sunday Times which has spread like wildfire online accuses him of doing so. The virus was making its way over the world, it says, but ‘it took just an hour that January 24 lunchtime to brush aside the coronavirus threat. Matt Hancock, the health secretary, bounced out of Whitehall after chairing the meeting and breezily told reporters the risk to the UK public was “low”.’  The ‘Insight’ government deep dive – which curiously appears to have been swerved by the paper’s award-winning political editor Tim Shipman – states that Boris Johnson didn’t chair any meetings about it

When will the public accept an end to the lockdown?

In the weeks leading up to Boris Johnson announcing lockdown measures, ministers and aides wondered how in the world you could enforce a lockdown like the one seen in authoritarian China in a liberal democracy such as the UK. But following Dominic Raab confirmation on Thursday that there will be another three weeks of lockdown, public resistance is the least of ministers’ concerns. The biggest surprise about the lockdown within government has been the level of public support for it. Polling has repeatedly shown that rather than fighting the social distancing measures, Britons are embracing them more obediently than anyone in might have dared imagine. A YouGov poll prior to Raab’s announcement found

David Patrikarakos

The global politics of a pandemic

The Great Game of the 21st century is upon us and as ever it’s a scramble for resources. This time, though, the thirst is not for land or diamonds or gold. Personal protective equipment has become the oil of the contemporary moment: desperately needed by a world that is strafed by coronavirus. Britain has its own urgent PPE supply problems. But what about the broader international struggle? The answer to this question offers the clearest glimpse of how our post-pandemic global politics is likely to look.   At the top of this scramble stands China. Ahead of the curve (for obvious reasons), it imported about 2.5 billion healthcare items between 24 January

Leaked US document suggests Covid may be less lethal but more widespread

Have we been vastly underestimating the number of people who have been infected with Covid-19 and correspondingly overestimating its mortality? No one knows because we don’t know just how widespread this infection is in the population at large. But a leaked document from the US Department of Homeland Security suggests that the US government, at least, is working on the assumption that the virus is a lot harder to contain – but a lot less deadly – than is widely assumed. The document compares the likely outcome of two scenarios: one in which the outbreak is ‘unmitigated’ – i.e. life carries on as normal – and one in which the government imposes

The joy of pumping iron at 83

Gstaad So the days — and months — drift by. This once peaceful Alpine town is packed with rich refugees fleeing the you-know-what. They come from nearby cities crammed with real migrants. There isn’t an empty apartment left, and the locals are raking it in. Two good friends have died, the village is supposed to be locked down, but God awful bikers are everywhere. Yes, they are biking down the middle of narrow paths which makes it impossible to keep your distance from them. What boggles the mind is the mentality of the morons who refuse to practise social distancing. The hotels, clubs and restaurants are shut, so surely they

A first-hand account of a racehorse trainer’s battle for survival

Sport may well be ‘the great triviality’ as Timeform founder Phil Bull once put it, and racing as trivial as any. But many thousands of jobs depend on it. To get an idea of the impact the pandemic is having on the 550 licensed training yards in Britain, I called up my friend Simon Dow at his Epsom yard. Back at Clear Height stables, where he has had his greatest successes with horses such as Young Ern and Chief’s Song, Simon has around 30 horses. Typically, the first thoughts of this articulate workaholic were with those living in the London tower blocks visible on clear days from the Epsom gallops.

The UK will not request an extension to the Brexit transition period

David Frost, the Prime Minister’s chief Brexit negotiator, has held discussions with the First Secretary of State Dominic Raab and other senior ministers in the last few days. As I say in tomorrow’s Spectator, the conclusion of these discussions has been that the UK will not request an extension to the transition period. Interestingly, I understand that no one in these discussions backed asking for an extension. The thinking is that a delay would not solve the fundamental policy problems and that a deal is either possible or not. Another factor, I understand, is that the government worries about the cost of any extension. There is concern that extending could

David Patrikarakos

Keir Starmer is the conservative we need in this time of crisis

These are discombobulating times. A deadly pandemic; the United States at sea, China belligerent and the EU at war with itself. British politics was in flux before the virus hit. Now it is vertiginous. The Tory party, long seen as the guardian of the status quo, has been forced to change tack as it deals with the fallout. Keir Starmer, recently elected as Labour leader, will play a vital role in this realignment – but not one we would once have envisaged. Starmer’s election as Labour leader in the midst of coronavirus is a good thing. He is the anti-Corbyn for a Labour party looking for calm and stability after

Rishi Sunak tries to calm coronavirus crunch fears

Following Tuesday’s bleak headlines over the effect the coronavirus lockdown could have on the economy, the Chancellor attempted to strike an optimistic note in the daily government press conference. With the OBR projection suggesting three months of lockdown followed by a partial easing could lead to the UK economy shrinking by 35 per cent, Sunak said that while the prediction was worrying the figures were in some ways unsurprising as these are unprecedented times. However, the Chancellor stressed that it was simply ‘a possible scenario’ and it ‘may not even be the most likely’.  Sunak said the important takeaway is that the economy would likely ‘bounce back quickly’ once measures are lifted. He said

Kate Andrews

OBR analysis reveals staggering impact of Covid-19 on UK economy

Just days after the Office for Budget Responsibility announced its economic forecasts in March, the reality of Covid-19’s impact on the UK economy sunk in, and its projection was rendered completely obsolete. A month later, with a clearer picture of the toll the virus and lockdown have taken, the OBR today released its new coronavirus analysis, showing a staggering 35 per fall in real GDP in the second quarter, and an unemployment spike of up to 10 per cent – that is, 2 million additional people out of work. A long way off its Budget 2020 forecast for the year:  As the graph above shows, the OBR’s scenario predicts a ‘V-shaped’ recovery –

The contradiction at the heart of ministers’ coronavirus response

The stories I hear from what healthcare workers call ‘the frontline’ – code for those working directly with Covid-19 patients – are traumatising. ‘I am seeing scores of death,’ says one senior doctor. ‘It’s hideous… I’m palliating [giving temporary relief to] people in their 70s to 90s on the wards who were never remotely suitable for intensive care and who are dying horribly quickly, and nastily too, if they don’t get the proper care. ‘The ward staff don’t have the experience and the poor patients don’t have a loved one by their side acting as their advocate’. This doctor gave me this insight because I could not work out where precisely

John Lee

Where is the vigorous debate about our response to Covid?

After a career as a scientist and clinical academic, I have been struck by how often they (we!) have very complicated and exceedingly well-reasoned ways of getting things quite wrong. That’s why I have always thought it best for the recommendations of experts to have ‘advisory’ status only. Experts’ roles are to examine the minutiae of a small subject area – with a view to gaining or advancing understanding. It is the job of our politicians and civil servants to develop appropriate policies.  Experts can be guilty of being monomaniacs, interested only in the thing they are studying. That’s understandable, of course, because many of these things are hard to

Kate Andrews

Easter Sunday puts the trade-offs of the lockdown into perspective

Perhaps today, more so than any day before it, we understand the trade-offs of this lockdown. An Easter Sunday that would normally be spent with loved ones will be spent by many people alone. Churches are a no-go zone. Friends who live down the street feel miles away. Family traditions and big meals are, at best, shared together on video apps – for others, they’re on hold until next year. These are the harsh realities of the lockdown, designed to slow the spread of a deadly pandemic. But the vast majority of us understand why it’s so important to stay inside right now – and are willing to keep doing

Obviously Boris doesn’t deserve coronavirus – but do those who say so deserve to lose their jobs?

Not for the first time since the coronavirus crisis began, controversy has hit Derbyshire. While the other week it was the county’s finest sending up drones to spy on and shame people walking in the Peak District, this week it’s a Labour councillor who has had the whip withdrawn and lost her job at a law firm for saying something nasty about Boris Johnson on the internet. Sheila Oakes, who is also the mayor of the Derbyshire town of Heanor, made a fool of herself the other day on Facebook. In response to another post, encouraging people to pray for the PM, she said that Johnson, who has just come