David cameron

Evidence-based politics: the case of the incredible shrinking Tory Party

Here is something those who rely on political commentators will not have expected to see. The latest poll from TNS BMRB has the Tories down to just a quarter of the vote: CON 25% (-2), LAB 40% (+3), LD 10% (nc), UKIP 14% (-3). The Opinium/Observer online poll had LAB 38, CON 28, UKIP 17, LD 8% at the weekend. YouGov for the Sunday Times on the same day had CON 30, LAB 40, LD 11, UKIP 13. (The Tories were just 1% above their low point with firm.) How can this be? All these polls were taken during the raging welfare debate. Commentator after commentator wrote articles assuring us

David Cameron places himself in Margaret Thatcher’s tradition

‘For many of us, she was, and is, an inspiration’, David Cameron said of Margaret Thatcher in his tribute to her. It was him, firmly — and proudly — placing himself in her tradition. Cameron has moved in Thatcher’s political direction as leader. He has become —partly, through circumstance and necessity — less interested in being a unifying figure, and more interested in getting things done. There has, in recent years, been an end to any attempts to distance the party from her legacy. Thatcher’s life-story is a truly remarkable one. Cameron rightly dwelled on the sexism she had to take on to become Tory leader. But she also had

David Cameron’s tribute to Margaret Thatcher: full text

Today we lost a great leader, a great Prime Minister and a great Briton. Margaret Thatcher didn’t just lead our country – she saved our country. And we should never forget that the odds were stacked against her. She was the shopkeeper’s daughter from Grantham who made it to the highest office in the land. There were people who said she couldn’t make it; who stood in her way; who said a woman couldn’t lead. She defied them all. She fought her way to a seat in Parliament…to the leadership of her Party…and then to lead our country…winning the backing of the British people three times in a row. She will be remembered for

David Cameron and the Union

Alex Massie asks why I didn’t mention the Union in my piece in this week’s magazine on what David Cameron’s legacy will be. It is a good question. Indeed, one former Cameron aide told me that he thought that the likely preservation of the Union would be Cameron’s greatest achievement. But the reason I didn’t mention it was because Cameron’s strategy on Scotland has been to keep a relatively low profile. He has, deliberately, not made it his fight. He realised that Alex Salmond wanted to present himself as the opposition to an English Tory Prime Minister who was, in Nationalist-speak, imposing his will on Scotland—and has simply refused to

Nuclear weapons, Scotland and the future of the United Kingdom

David Cameron – who, in case you’d forgotten, leads the Conservative and Unionist Party – made a rare visit to Scotland yesterday. He spoke about defence. His message was clear: an independent Scotland could not expect to win defence contracts from what remains of the United Kingdom. Jobs and expertise, therefore, would be lost. Vote no. This is, as Iain Martin notes, smart politics. The Nationalists are weakest on those briefs which are the central functions of a nation state: defence, foreign policy and welfare. Cameron, as the British Prime Minister, should make more of this natural advantage. (Incidentally, Alex Massie has an excellent account of the referendum battle. It’s

David Cameron’s Legacy? Preserving the Union or presiding over the Break-Up of Britain

Politics is at least partially a matter of perspective. The same object can look very different depending upon the angle from which it is viewed. Which brings me to Brother Forsyth’s latest column. I bow to no-one in my admiration for James’s reporting and astute analysis. Nor do I dispute much of what he says in his analysis of David Cameron’s legacy. No, what’s interesting is what isn’t there. The Union. I know. Scots go on and on and on about this stuff. It is true that the Caledonian gene is strong on self-absorption. Nevertheless, I think it can reasonably be considered revealing that this type of column, written by

The View from 22 — North Korea and Asia’s arms race, and Owen Jones vs. Toby Young

Are Iain Duncan Smith’s welfare reforms necessary to bring fairness to our benefits system? This week’s Spectator leading article argues the work and pensions secretary returned to front-line politics for one reason only — to end the present waste of human potential. Author and Independent columnist Owen Jones disagrees; he debates with our associate editor Toby Young on this week’s View form 22 podcast (10:38). Will IDS’ reforms radically change the welfare system for the better? Is the government striving for more or less equality? And will the coalition’s legacy stand up to closer scrutiny from the left at the next general election? Clarissa Tan discusses her cover feature on

Key David Cameron aide to quit Downing Street

Sky News has revealed tonight that Rohan Silva, one of the Prime Minister’s key advisers, is leaving Downing Street. Silva might not be a household name but he has been a hugely influential figure there these past few years. In opposition, he worked for George Osborne before moving to work for David Cameron in government. He has been the driving force behind spending transparency, Tech City and crime maps. There have been few more pro-enterprise and pro-reform voices in this government. His departure is a big blow to Tory radicalism. One of the things that marked Silva out was a thirst for new ideas that is all too rare in

Is Boris really ready to lead the Tory party?

Boris needs to pay attention. As James Allen said, ‘Circumstances do not make the man, they reveal him.’ Given his colourful character, discussion so far about Boris’s leadership potential has focused on the man himself; but politics is about being in the right place at the right time, as Churchill would attest. Unprecedented levels of national debt, a stagnant economy, a healthcare system that isn’t delivering, a Eurozone that may yet collapse into meltdown, a chronic housing shortage, endemic low productivity and a state that has stretched its tentacles into so many areas of people’s lives it is proving extremely difficult to disentangle – these are just a taste of

Live from Golgotha

A rather charming and typically self-deprecating Easter sermon from Archbishop Justin at Canterbury Cathedral; I’m beginning to like him. His subject was the inevitability of disillusion with things like governments and councils and ‘regulatory bodies’ and indeed Archbishops of Canterbury who are all bound, in the end, to be fucking useless (although this was not how he put it). I was seated in one of the pleb pews and rather hoped he might have taken a leaf out of that Argentine left-footer’s book and wandered over and washed my feet. They’ve become unaccountably scaly of late and for some reason now resemble the claws of a Galapagos tortoise; a bit

James Forsyth

George Osborne won’t be moved

Today’s Sunday Telegraph front page has sparked off a flutter of speculation about whether George Osborne might be moved as Chancellor. I suspect that the short answer to this question is no. Osborne and Cameron are inextricably linked and to move him would be akin to the Prime Minister declaring that both his political and economic strategies have been wrong. He would not long survive such an admission. I also sense that Osborne’s stock in the parliamentary party is recovering from the battering it took with last year’s Budget. The fact that this year’s Budget was doorstep-ready, has survived the Labour and media onslaught and gone down relatively well with

Poll: Boris could save 50 Tory MPs

YouGov have once again tested how a Boris-led Tory party would compare to a Cameron-led one in the polls. When they last did so in October, they found that Boris was worth a seven-point bump: with Cameron as leader, the Tories were nine points behind Labour; Boris narrowed the gap to just two. The results this time — reported by Joe Murphy in the Evening Standard — are very similar: the Tories do six points better under Boris than under Cameron. That’s enough to eliminate Labour’s lead entirely. With Cameron, it’s Labour 37, Tories 31. With Boris, it’s 37 all. As I said last time, switching to Boris probably would

John Hayes: Muslims are right about Britain

John Hayes, the prime minister’s latest tribune, achieved some fame or infamy, depending on your view, when he wrote the following article for the Spectator on 6 August 2005, a month after the 7/7 bombings. I wonder if he still holds these views, and, if he does, whether the prime minister agrees with him? Muslims are right about Britain Many moderate Muslims believe that much of Britain is decadent. They are right. Mr Blair says that the fanatics who want to blow us up despise us, but he won’t admit that their decent co-religionists who are the best hope of undermining the extremists at source — despair of us. They

James Forsyth

David Cameron mini-shuffle done to move John Hayes from DECC

Downing Street’s mini-shuffle announced this morning to coincide with a joint Cameron Fallon visit to a green car plant is intriguing. Having made some inquiries, it seems that the aim was to move John Hayes out of DECC, where he was still clashing spectacularly with the Secretary of State Ed Davey and alarming some in the industry, and Michael Fallon in. Everything else followed from that. Fallon’s additional responsibilities are yet another sign of the high regard Number 10 holds him in. Fallon might be culturally, and politically, quite different from most of those in Number 10 but they have come to see him as their safest pair of hands.

Mini reshuffle shows Cameron trying to get a grip

The mini reshuffle earlier this morning is significant. David Cameron has moved Tory ‘greybeards’ to address problem areas. Cameron’s twitter feed has announced: ‘Delighted John Hayes joining me as a Senior Parliamentary adviser – and Michael Fallon adding a key energy role to his brief.’ Benedict Brogan and Tim Montgomerie have good analyses of what this means. In summary it appears that Hayes, a self-confessed ‘blue collar’ Tory and popular MP, is going briefless to the Cabinet Office to help the PM communicate government policy to the backbenches and the working classes. Hayes speaks in plain language. He has been pushing the energy bill through parliament, and has clashed openly

The British Prime Minister’s insignificance

Here is David Cameron’s problem in a nutshell. During his immigration speech on Monday he said: ‘Put simply when it comes to illegal migrants, we’re rolling up that red carpet and showing them the door.’ Just two days later it was once again made clear that the red carpet is firmly in place and no such door in sight. Abu Qatada came to the UK illegally on a forged passport in 1993. He is wanted in Jordan to face terrorism charges. Abu Qatada is an illegal migrant. Yet he ‘cannot’ be shown the door. The government needs to realise one thing: that as long as we remain a signatory of

James Forsyth

Quietly, Cameron is preparing for his next big fight: the battle for Portsmouth

From tomorrow’s Spectator. Downing Street aides nervously run through the symptoms: a flat economy, poor press, leadership mutterings. Then they say, ‘It’s just mid-term blues, isn’t it?’ A second later, they add nervously, ‘It’s nothing more serious than that, is it?’ The truth is, nobody can be certain. There’s no reliable way of distinguishing mid-term blues from something politically fatal. Part of the problem is that few Tories have anything to compare their current mood with. After 13 years in opposition, only a handful of them have been in government before, let alone in the mid-term doldrums. When I put this argument to one veteran of the Thatcher years, he

Theresa May’s abolition of UKBA shows how the immigration consensus favours the Tories, and her

Theresa May has announced that the UK Border Agency is to be abolished.  In an unscheduled statement to the House of Commons, she described UKBA as ‘a troubled organisation’ with a ‘closed, secretive and defensive culture’. She said that the agency’s size, lack of transparency, IT systems, policy remit and legal framework ensured that its ‘performance was not good enough’. May declared that the agency will be split in two. One arm will deal with immigration and visa services, while the other tackles enforcement. May will also bring both arms back directly under the control of ministers, reversing the arms-length policy established by Labour in 2008. May also called for

Nick Cohen

Leveson: Don’t be frightened by the state

If David Cameron had any sense, he would stand up in the Commons and say “I am withdrawing the Royal Charter. The law officers have assured me that Lord Justice Leveson, though a fine judge in many respects, did not understand the Human Rights Act. He failed to see that the courts would almost certainly find that his plans to force newspapers and websites to join his regulator by hitting them with punitive fines were unlawful in practice. My problem is that too many in Parliament cannot see it either. “There is a madness here in Westminster; a fanaticism which I, as a traditional Tory, find distasteful. I do not

Tories who say that Cameron is making ‘no difference’ underline the coalition’s communications failure

You should take note when Benedict Brogan, an influential and widely sourced journalist who has been very close to the Cameron and Osborne operation over the years, writes of the fire-sale of Cameron shares. He says in today’s Telegraph that Cameron’s party view him as a ‘lame duck’ who makes ‘no difference’. This is an extraordinary claim for disaffected Tories to make. True: the economy is mired and the government has tied itself to only one course of action. There have also been disasters at the department of health; and energy policy ought to be giving Number 10 an enormous headache. But Cameron’s coalition is changing the landscape of education and