Economy

Osborne sells off the Rock

‘Sir Richard Branson set to buy Northern Rock.’ So read the headlines in November 2007 — and now they’re finally true. It has been announced this morning that Virgin Money is going stump up £747 million to return the bank to the private sector. This, says George Osborne, ‘is an important first step in getting the British taxpayer out of the business of owning banks.’ By the looks of it, Virgin will be paying less than they would have done four years ago, but they have also had to make various assurances about how they will handle the Rock. When Branson’s bid failed in 2007, and the bank was nationalised,

Miliband finds his niche

I spent this morning with Ed Miliband on a trip to a factory in Sunderland. Miliband was visiting the Liebherr plant there, which manufactures cranes. The centerpiece of the visit was a Q&A with the workforce. Now, a factory in the North East is not the toughest venue for a Labour leader to play. But Miliband appeared far more comfortable in this setting than he does when giving a traditional speech from behind a podium.   Unlike Miliband’s Q&A at Labour conference, the questions were not softballs or traditional left-wing fare. One set of three questions were: why don’t we close the borders, bring back national service and do more

The spectre of populism

Across Europe, the bien pensant are worried. They fear that the Eurocrisis could lead to the rise of populism — whatever that means — and even extremism. The spectre of the 1930s stalks a lot of discussions, as the FT’s Gideon Rachman found out at a lunch with a hedge fund manager who thought the break-up of the Euro would lead to “the next Great Depression and a resurgence of Nazism”. But is there real cause for fear or is this a matter of people projecting a particular history onto the future? Economic dislocation has in the past led to populism but not uniformly, or at least not in numbers

Where does Cameron stand on 50p now?

One letter, that’s all it takes. After 38 City types wrote a letter to the Daily Telegraph this morning, urging George Osborne to drop the 50p rate of income tax, Westminster types have been chirruping on about it ever since. All three party leaders have had their say, except, so far as I can tell, Ed Miliband — although Ed Balls stood in for him anyway. Of all the responses, it is David Cameron’s that is the most noteworthy and perhaps even surprising. Speaking about deficit reduction on the Jeremy Vine Show earlier, the PM was unequivocal: ‘We have to try and do this in a way that is fair

James Forsyth

How European sovereign debt became the new sub-prime

The New York Times has a great piece today on how banks became so exposed to the sovereign debt of European countries with a history of defaulting. Here’s the nub of the argument: “How European sovereign debt became the new subprime is a story with many culprits, including governments that borrowed beyond their means, regulators who permitted banks to treat the bonds as risk-free and investors who for too long did not make much of a distinction between the bonds of troubled economies like Greece and Italy and those issued by the rock-solid Germany. Banks had further incentive to overlook the perils of individual euro zone countries because of the

Britain: a European pariah?

The British government has worked hard to counteract any perception that it is being marginalised in Europe. Before the election, the Tory party went around to different capitals to assuage any fears that may have existed. The message: despite the Conservative departure from the EPP, and their anti-Lisbon Treaty remonstrations, they would not be a problem. They would be businesslike. Once in power, David Cameron unleashed his charm, showcased his polyglot Deputy Prime Minister and sent William Hague out to make everyone feel that they had a partner not a pariah in London. Further, the energetic and amiable David Lidington replaced the combative Mark Francois as Europe Minister. Links with

Fraser Nelson

Britain: a safe haven?

The Bond Bubble is growing even larger over Britain, pushing 10-year yields down to 2.1 per cent. The FT splashes on it this morning, and uses the “safe haven” line, which is also being advocated by the Conservatives. Understandably. If I were George Osborne, I’d spin this as a standing ovation from the markets for my deficit reduction plan. In fact, it’s just a grim reflection of the fact that Britain’s low-growth, high-debt economy is less unattractive than Italy’s. But it does have another side effect, that people won’t quite admit to. Osborne’s cost of borrowing is going down (partly due to expectations of more QE) and since the Budget,

Osborne gets frank with Europe

George Osborne’s attack on the European Commission and his fellow finance ministers, for wasting time talking about a financial transactions tax when it is not going to happen, is quite a significant moment. It marks an attempt by Britain to knock this idea, which would hit this country far harder than anywhere else in Europe, off the agenda.   The Treasury, the Foreign Office and Number 10 have become increasingly exasperated about how this issue keeps coming up again and again. This feeling has been intensified by the fact that this issue is being discussed even as the crisis in the Eurozone is worsening by the hour.   Osborne’s remarks

‘Guest worker’ plan would hurt the economy

The economists who advise the Home Office on immigration policy have come out against a plan to turn economic migrants into ‘guest workers’. Last week, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) published their response to the government’s proposals on restricting settlement rights for skilled workers from outside the EU. With all the debate around David Cameron’s pledge to cut net immigration to the ‘tens of thousands’, many of the detailed policies for achieving that overall aim have been somewhat neglected. It should be clear, however, that these particular proposals would represent a very significant change, with serious implications for employers. While a few exceptional migrant workers would be invited to stay,

Who will bail out the EU bailout fund?

While all eyes are fixed on Italy’s ever-increasing borrowing rates, a far larger problem may well be emerging. The EU bailout fund, set up to help countries who can’t borrow, may itself have trouble borrowing very soon. A sale this morning of 10-year bonds by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) had a very muted response, barely bringing in the €3 billion it was meant to. This despite the fact that the offer was priced at a much more enticing yield, some 90 basis points (or 0.9 percentage points in non-market lingo) above a previous sale. Mind you, that’s better than last week’s sale, which had to be postponed due

For Sarkozy, AAA stands for austerity

Nicolas Sarkozy has served up his second austerity budget in as many months, in a bid to retain France’s AAA credit rating. The president wants to cling on to those three precious letters at all costs. There are elections in six months’ time and he isn’t doing well in the polls. Austerité Part Deux consists of tax increases and spending cuts totalling €7 billion, the government announced today. There will be increases in VAT and levies on large corporations, as well as curbs on increases in welfare spending. This savings programme follows the €11 billion one announced in August. Sarko’s bid to get re-elected in 2012 is in disarray. According

Cameron’s attempt to re-moralise the economy

One of the great challenges facing Britain is how to re-moralise society. A country where individuals, or businesses, can’t tell the difference between right and wrong has fundamental problems. The Times reports today that David Cameron is planning to start talking about the need for “moral markets”. There’ll be those on the right who don’t like this, who feel it is pandering to Ed Miliband’s distinctions between predator and producer capitalism. Others will feel that it is impractical. Then there are those who’ll counter that the only responsibility of business is to maximise profits. But this is important territory for Conservatives to be on. Cameron’s “chocolate orange” speech back in

The euro is destroying Europe

This week’s issue of The Spectator hits the newsstands today. Here, for CoffeeHousers, is James Forsyth’s Politics column from it: Last week’s rebellion by David Cameron’s backbenchers in support of an EU referendum ended eight years of peace in the Tory party on the European question. Now, the offer by the Greek Prime Minister of a referendum on the bailout package — designed to appease nervous Greek Socialist party backbenchers — means that the uncertainty surrounding the eurozone will drag on into the New Year. George Osborne regards the confusion surrounding the future of the single currency as the single biggest obstacle to a British economic recovery. The Chancellor and

PMQs or St Paul’s protest?

The Hair Shirt walked abroad at PMQs today. Those attending the Square Mile sleepover finally forced their agenda into the political mainstream. The question is, what is their agenda? A protest that doesn’t define its programme allows others to define it for them. And today both party leaders tried to harness the anti-capitalist spirit for their own political ends. Ed Miliband claimed to be scandalised by a recent, and arguable, surge of 49 per cent in directors’ pay. He demanded that the PM take action. Cameron seemed equally appalled at the news that fat cats have been getting fatter during the recession. But he wasn’t taking any sermons from Labour.

Growth hits 0.5% in Q3 — a nation shrugs

The growth number for the third quarter of this year is out, and it’s a little bit better than expected: 0.5 per cent. Many economists were saying that we’d have to hit around 0.4 per cent to recoup the growth lost to the Royal Wedding and Japanese Tsunami in Q2, so we’ve managed that. But, that aside, this is not the time for party poppers and champagne corks. It may not be Econopocalypse, but it’s not Mega Growth either. We are still living in a bleak, borderline stagflationary environment. Besides, I still reckon that we oughtn’t get especially worked up about these quarterly figures anyway. For starters, the obsession over

Breaking: Ed Balls has a point

The games have started a day early, folks. The latest quarterly growth figures are set to be released tomorrow morning, but already Ed Balls is waxing insistent about what they have to be: “Simply to stay on track for the Office for Budget Responsibility’s most recent forecast, already downgraded three times, we will need to see growth in the third quarter of 1.3 per cent. And to reach the OECD’s latest and more pessimistic forecast, we will need to see a figure next week of 0.9 per cent.” To be fair — and this is not something you’ll read often on Coffee House — the Shadow Chancellor has a point,

Fraser Nelson

Clegg’s tall tales won’t boost growth

“The Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, will today announce proceeds from the government growth fund which will protect or safeguard 200,000 jobs.” This sentence contains everything that’s wrong about this government’s schizophrenic approach to economic recovery. Rather than cut taxes and let the economy grow, they increase tax — and then give people back a portion of the cash, expecting to be thanked as they do so. And, for good measure, dropping in a spurious jobs number. Nick Clegg was on the Today programme this morning, showcasing the phenomenon that retards so many economies: politicians seeking credit for giving one man’s money to another. He started off by announcing that

The paucity of the “99 per cent”

A week may be a long time in politics, but it is no time at all in protest. As the inhabitants of Parliament Square have demonstrated, even a decade is as nothing so long as you have a constantly morphing cause, a council with no balls, and a small but steady stream of acolytes. Last weekend I watched a bridal party sneak in through the side entrance of St Paul’s Cathedral. This weekend I went back, curious to see whether the protest that had kept them from entering through the main door had located a point yet. Walking up from Fleet Street the first sight that greets the visitor is

Executive pay: don’t believe the headlines

Open yesterday’s or this morning’s papers, and you’ll find plenty of reports about the snouts of FTSE100 chief execs being in the trough again, while the rest of us suffer. Their pay is up 49 per cent, we read. Most people’s first and only response to these accounts of the Incomes Data Services’ (IDS) latest findings will be anger — and understandably so. But much of this anger and reportage is based on a mis-reading of the actual report. The BBC’s influence is huge. Its original report compared the rise in base salaries (which wasn’t 49 per cent, but a much less impressive 3.2 per cent) with a median rise

The welfare trap

John Humphrys last night presented a documentary on welfare, the single most important topic in Britain. It was excellent, and I’d recommend CoffeeHousers watch the whole thing (on iPlayer here). Humphrys is a great presenter, himself the product of the now-forgotten days of social mobility when a kid from a working-class district (Splott in Cardiff) could end up presenting the 9 O’Clock News in his 30s. “In those days, everybody was expected to work,” he said of his childhood. “We knew only one family where the father did not work, and he was a pariah…. Today, one in three of working-age people is on out-of-work benefits.” This is what the