Economy

Friday

Alex Massie

A Gloomy Decade?

Tim Montgomerie is in full-on never waste a crisis mode today. Given the doom plastered across all the front pages (The Sun excepted) this is a good time for wheeling out old favourites: With the world economy facing such a bleak decade this is no time for half measures. We need to be cutting taxes on business and funding them with deeper cuts in the over-sized state. We should be suspending environmental measures that are imposing heavy and futile costs on our manufacturing industry. We shouldn’t be loading new regulations on our banks until the economy is strong again. We need them to be lending. We need reform of competition

Peter Hoskin

Fasten your seatbelts…

It has, to paraphrase Margo Channing, already been a bumpy night — and it’s only going to get bumpier today. The latest news is how the Asian markets have trembled at what’s happening in the West. Japan’s main stock index is down 3.7 per cent. Australia’s is down 4.2 per cent. Hong Kong’s 5.3 per cent. And even oil futures joined in with the collective nosedive, which is continuing as the European exchanges open this morning. All of which adds to the catalogue of horror that was written yesterday. CoffeeHousers will read plenty of grim comparisons in the papers today, not least that yesterday’s plunge in the Dow Jones was

Wednesday

David Blackburn

Government split over policing the internet

Business Secretary Vince Cable was on strident form this morning, pledging to drop controversial web-blocking from the government’s plan to tackle internet piracy. But his Conservative colleagues at the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS), Ed Vaizey and Jeremy Hunt, disagree. Ed Vaizey, the minister responsible for the creative industries, is to chair a meeting on 20th September with internet service providers, copyright holders and other stakeholders, and web-blocking is on the agenda. Originally, the government proposed blocking broadband access at addresses (both real and virtual) where illegal downloads took place. The prevailing consensus suggested that such a practice is unworkable and potentially unfair: why, for instance, should a café be barred just

David Blackburn

Moving slowly towards the future

Yesterday’s leak of Vince Cable’s response to the Hargreaves report into the Digital Economy Act (DEA) set tongues wagging. The headline was as expected: ‘web-blocking’, the practice whereby copyright infringers are barred from internet access, will be dropped because it is unworkable. In line with Hargreaves’ recommendations, Cable also plans to remove restrictions on using copyright material to create parodies, which is excellent news for Downfall enthusiasts. And he will rationalise copyright law to legalise supposedly forbidden practices like copying CDs onto an i-Pod. Finally, Cable has permitted an exception from copyright for data mining for research purposes. The Business Department and the Treasury believe that these reforms will net the economy an extra

Tuesday

Jonathan Jones

An open letter to Will Straw about deficit reduction…

…or why the US cuts are actually faster than, and just as deep as, ours. Dear Will, We hope you don’t mind us writing a letter-form response to your latest post on Left Foot Forward, which argues that the “coalition government’s cuts are deeper and faster than the Tea Party’s”. But, as we see it, there are several problems with your figures which are easier to explain in a conversational format. Here they are, as best as we can express them: i) The first obvious problem comes when you say that Obama set out $83 billion of deficit reduction for 2012 in his March Budget. Actually, he didn’t. The Congressional

Peter Hoskin

The IMF manages to please everyone

A bet-hedging sort of report into the UK’s economy from the IMF today, which largely supports George Osborne’s deficit reduction plan, but will also give some encouragement to his detractors. By way of a summary, here are the parts that might satisfy Osborne himself, as well as Vince Cable, Ed Balls and Mervyn King: The passage that the Chancellor will flash around Westminster comes on the very second page of the IMF document. “Strong fiscal consolidation is under way,” it reads, “and remains essential to achieve a more sustainable budgetary position, thus reducing fiscal risks.” And the endorsements for the Chancellor’s deficit reduction plan continue inside, not least in the

Peter Hoskin

The House of Representatives passes the debt deal, as Giffords returns

After all that, the House of Representatives has passed the bill to raise America’s debt ceiling, by 269 votes to 161. But, for all the economic significance of last night, it was the vote of one woman that really set proceedings alight. Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords returned to the floor of the House for the first time since surviving an assassination attempt in January, to vote ‘yes’: And in less heartening news, Vladimir Putin has described America as a “parasite” on the global economy. 

Monday

David Blackburn

Pickles lands a small blow for growth

Eric Pickles’ decentralisation revolution continues, with the announcement that Whitehall is relinquishing control over car parking restrictions in town centres. From now on, town halls will decide how much space will be devoted to parking and at what price. It is hoped that this will stimulate commerce in the localities by improving the experience of high street shoppers.      This, I concede, is not the most thrilling news ever to have graced these pages. But it is quite significant nonetheless. It was understood that Pickles was unlikely to achieve this objective, due to Whitehall’s intransigence. So, this is another indication of Pickles’ ability to overcome the antediluvian forces arraigned against him and

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

Balls has the public on his side when it comes to a VAT cut

There are few more useful addendums to Danny Alexander’s comments earlier than YouGov’s poll for the Sunday Times today. It asks people about individual policies for growth, and the results will be disheartening for the Tory leadership and encouraging for Ed Balls. An overwhelming majority supports Balls’s call for a cut in VAT, while few back a reduction in the 50p rate: There’s an almost identical picture when it comes to which polices people think would support growth: Perhaps most tellingly, even Tory supporters are against cutting the 50p rate: And, again, a similar picture emerges with respect to growth: Of course, none of this means that Labour has won

Peter Hoskin

Alexander rallies behind the 50p rate

Danny Alexander is usually the very model of collective responsibility: sober, unfussy and diligent, he sets about the coalition’s work without ever causing a scene. Which is what makes his televised comments about the 50p tax rate earlier all the more striking. When pressed on the subject by interviewer Sophie Rayworth, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury was forceful in response. The government doesn’t necessarily want to cut the rate, he suggested, and those who thought it would are inhabitants of “cloud cuckoo land”. He went on: “We set out in the Coalition agreement, and it’s something that we as Liberal Democrats pushed very hard for, that the Government’s first

Peter Hoskin

Apocalypse averted?

At last, signs that Washington’s lawmakers may have scrabbled together a debt deal after all. According to the overnight wires, the White House and Congressional leaders have alighted on a package that would raise the ceiling by $2.4 trillion, so long as the deficit is reduced by at least the same amount over the next ten years. There are more details here, but the key claim is that around $1.2 trillion of immediate spending cuts have already been agreed upon, with a Congressional committee to recommend further deficit reduction measures by the end of November. And although these proposals will still have to pass through the corridors of Congress, leaders

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

America’s debt crisis fuels Obama’s political crisis

Momentousness without momentum. That’s what we’re getting from America at the moment, as this all-crucial debt deal continues to stutter and stall. The main development in Washington yesterday was John Boehner securing enough Republican votes to pass his bill in the House of Representatives — only for it to be summarily tabled by Democrats in the Senate. What will follow over the weekend is yet more frantic negotiation between the Democrats and Republicans in Congress, as each tries to make their various plans more acceptable to the other, while also keeping their own die-hards on side. Meanwhile, the clock keeps on ticking down towards default: three days, 13 hours, 35

Friday

Peter Hoskin

What happens if the US defaults?

The homepage of the Washington Post has a clock ticking down to America’s debt-ceiling deadline: four days, 14 hours, and a fast-declining number of minutes and seconds. It also has details of the events, last night, that upset the prospect of a deal being reached yet again. The Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, John Boehner, had been frantically trying to corral support for a bill that would raise the ceiling in exchange for $billions of extra spending cuts. He only needed 216 of the House’s 240 Republicans to vote with him. But it wasn’t to be. The vote was called off, postponed until at least later today, as

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

The good news story that Osborne wants you to hear

  There was much sly amusement earlier this week when George Osborne, responding to the latest growth figures, described Britain as “a safe haven in the storm”. The idea that our high inflation, low growth economy might be a “safe” anything seemed, to many, a grotesque idea. But, in truth, the Chancellor may have had a point — and it’s a point that he’ll want to make again and again as the recovery stumbles on, and as other indicators fluctuate against him. What the Chancellor was referring to, I’m sure CoffeeHousers know, is the interest rates set by the markets on the UK bonds that fund our borrowing. Broadly speaking,

Peter Hoskin

Alexander’s balancing act

Remember that merry dance between the government and the unions over public sector pensions, a few weeks ago? Expect a minor reprise today, and much more over the summer. The government today announces how much extra public sector workers will have to pay to maintain their pension levels, and already the Telegraph has the numbers. When it comes to the 40,000 best-paid public sectorees — all on considerably over £100,000 — their contributions will rise by around £3,000 a year. And then it’s a sliding scale all the way down to the 750,000 least well-paid workers, who will face no increase at all. The unions, who will rejoin the government

Tuesday

David Blackburn

GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in Q2

Growth in the 2nd quarter was an anaemic 0.2 per cent, in line with recent predictions. Another headline is that manufacturing fell by 0.4 per cent, in line with global slowdown in the sector. Also, the ONS says that growth would have been 0.7 per cent if it weren’t for the Bank Holidays, the fine weather and external economic factors. Now the political fun starts.

Peter Hoskin

The Game of Growth

The release of the Q2 growth figures is still half-an-hour away, but Westminster is already on the boil. Much of the fuss and froth is because it’s expected that the economy barely grew at all between April and June, or perhaps even shrank. But some of it is down to this Telegraph story, which suggests not just that “Downing Street aides [have] become increasingly impatient with a lack of growth,” but that David Cameron’s permanent secretary, Jeremy Heywood, recently held a meeting with Treasury and Business officials, and “read them them Riot Act”. So is the longstanding friendship between Dave and George fraying at the edges? Benedict Brogan says not,

Monday

Matt Oakley

How to get from Plan A to Plan A+

Terrible events in Norway and the ongoing phone hacking scandal have kept the economy out of the media in the last couple of weeks. Coverage of the latest bail-out of Greece last week was comparatively muted, especially considering how important it is for the eurozone and, by implication, the UK. However, if the soothsayers are correct, it is unlikely that the release of the Q2 GDP figures tomorrow will fail to hit the headlines. When the Office for Budget Responsibility published their forecast for the UK economy in April they had forecast growth of 1.7 per cent this year, but signs are that tomorrow’s Q2 data will raise stark questions

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

What you need to know ahead of tomorrow’s growth figures

By now, George Osborne will have seen tomorrow’s GDP figures and I suspect will be having a mid-afternoon whisky. Ed Balls will be warming up for his demands for a Plan B. “Austerity isn’t working,” he’ll say — and will doubtless tour TV studios with his usual bunch of dodgy assumptions which he hopes broadcasters won’t challenge. Here, as a counterweight, are a few facts and figures about austerity, how harsh it is, etc. — and the case for a Plan A+. 1. Where are the “deep, harsh” cuts? The Q2 GDP data will complete the economic picture for the first year of George Osborne’s time in the Treasury. But

Peter Hoskin

Osborne’s summer of pain starts here

It has mostly been a weekend of terrible and grisly news, especially with the details emerging from Norway about Anders Behring Breivik and his murderous brand of politics. But there was also, behind it all, a slight rebalancing of the British political debate. After weeks of grandmaster-like focus on the phone hacking scandal, our politicians have started talking about the economy again. With the GDP growth figures for the second quarter of this year due out tomorrow, they’re all trying to get their spin in early. There were a number of intriguing interventions, not least George Osborne’s hint that he will cut “very high tax rates” in his Pre-Budget Report