Economy

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Sense reigns, as the Tories redefine their health spending pledge

Here’s another sensible development for the day: the Tories have diluted their pledge to keep on increasing health spending.  As the FT’s Alex Barker reports, the Lib-Con political settlement is going to contain these words: ‘We will increase NHS spending in every year of the parliament.’ So what’s the difference?  Well, the previous pledge was to increase health spending in real terms each year – whereas this new formulation suggests that cash spending will increase, but that there will be cuts once you account for inflation.  Sure, it doesn’t smash the ringfence down completely.  But it’s still progress so far as the fiscal crisis is concerned.  Score one up for

Sunday

David Blackburn

No Lib-Con deal for at least 24 hours

William Hague has just emerged from the Cabinet Office and spoken of the ‘positive, constructive and substantive talks’ between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Discussion has encompassed political reform, reducing the deficit, banking reform, regulation of small businesses, environmental issues and civil liberties. Hague says that a further meeting will take place at some stage in the next 24 hours. ‘That meeting,’ he added. ‘Will concentrate on deficit reduction and economic stability’. The language of the statement suggests that an informal pact is more likely than a formal coalition. It is surely indicative that the follow-up talks aim to secure economic stability in the interests of the country, rather

David Blackburn

Swords around a throne

The Sunday Times reports that the Cabinet is suggesting to Gordon Brown that he resign as Prime Minister, and that Labour goes into opposition against a weak Conservative government facing an unenviable economic task. The ‘Caretaker Prime Minister’ did not fly to Scotland to consider a re-shuffle, though that would have provided some light entertainment. And his swift return to London this afternoon suggests that Brown’s premiership is gasping its dying breaths. With the exception of a brief lapse on the telephone, Brown’s conduct has been dignified in recent days. For once, he has led. Will he remain as Labour leader if he resigns as PM? He might; he’s stubborn

Thursday

David Blackburn

The best and worst of the campaign: David Cameron

Cameron’s best moment: the sunshine of the final TV debate David Cameron has had a peculiar campaign.  For the most part, the big set-piece occasions haven’t quite caught fire, while many of the Tory leader’s successes have been the relatively low-key and impromptu successes of the campaign trail.  Having said that, it was the biggest set-piece event of them all – the final TV debate – which gave Cameron his best moment of the election.  Here, he was energetic, direct and, most importantly, optimistic.  And he even managed to sell the Tories’ school reform policy in a straightforward and engaging way.  In his closing statement, Cameron did what he always

Brian Reading

How a cow won the 1970 election

The conspiracy theory of history is rarely right; the bungle theory is rarely wrong. So it was at the 1970 British general election. I bungled. The polls gave Labour a 3 percent lead; instead the Tories won. Historians disagree on why this was so. Some blame the margin of error in opinion polls. Others say there was a late swing. If so, I was to blame. It was the Sunday before the Thursday polling. We were panicking. Our Tory backroom boys gathered together three or four future cabinet ministers. I asked how were we to deal with inflation – more important in those days than the budget deficit. We agreed

Wednesday

David Blackburn

Government in waiting?

I’m sceptical of the value of newspaper endorsements. Readers are often irritated by being told which way to jump – if you’ve read the letters page of the Times recently you’ll know what I mean. However, the weight of Fleet Street support for the Tories is significant. In addition to the usual suspects, the Sun, the Times, the Financial Times and the Economist have all defected from New Labour since 2005. Today, the Evening Standard joins them, endorsing the Conservatives in a general election for the first time since 1997. As with the endorsements in the Times, the Economist and the FT, Labour’s exhaustion, Cameron’s comparative vitality and the belief

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Niall Ferguson: Britain should call the IMF now

Should David Cameron just call the IMF immediately? Like, on Monday? This argument has been doing the rounds in Tory circles and tomorrow’s Spectator has an important contribution from Niall Ferguson. He advises that Cameron takes a two-pronged approach. Prong one is to ‘axe ruthlessly’ and prong two is to call the IMF. He says: ‘There is a very real danger that [things] could now spiral, Greek style, out of all control if foreign confidence in sterling slumps and long-term interest rates rise. Mr Cameron needs to do two things right away. He must instruct George Osborne to wield the axe ruthlessly with the aim of returning to a balanced

David Blackburn

EU revises British economic forecasts up

Faisal Islam has the story that the EU has revised Britain’s economic prospects up to 1.2 percent in 2010 from 0.9 percent. Next year, the EU predict to 2.1 percent, the highest of major European nations. Is this a crumb of comfort for Brown? Well yes, but the EU’s predictions are still someway off Alistair Darling’s forecasts. His growth prediction for 2010 is in the region of 1 percent to 1.5 percent, which is closer than his predictions for 2011, when he expects GDP to increase by 3 percent to 3.5 percent. In any event, the upgraded figures are probably too small to shift the polls at this stage. PS:

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

Ten questions for Gordon Brown tonight

By rights, Gordon Brown should fear this debate on the economy more than any other. Here are ten questions I would like to hear him answer:   1. You told Gillian Duffy yesterday that you have a “deficit plan to cut the debt in half over four years.” This was a lie, wasn’t it? Our debt is £771bn now. Your deficit plan ­- ie, to run huge deficits for years – will actually double it to £1,406 billion within four years according to the Treasury. The debt for which Mrs Duffy and other taxpayers are liable would double under your plans ­- yet you told her it would halve. How

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron’s tactical dilemma

One thing to watch tonight is David Cameron’s strategy for dealing with Nick Clegg’s plan to take peoples’ first ten thousand pounds of income out of tax. This policy is clear and appealing and one that many Conservatives like. Indeed, Cameron himself called it a ‘beautiful policy’ in the first debate. So it is imperative, that the Tories have a way to try and defuse it. During the campaign, the Tories have used two different attacks on it. One is to criticise it from the left, to argue that the policy is not progressive as it does not help the lowest paid: you have to earn more than ten thousands

Daniel Korski

Dear Dave,

Tonight is about the economy – the most important issue troubling voters. Amazing, though, your economic mesage has not been particularly clear. Incredible given what the Labour government has done, I know, but true. George Osborne cannot seem to win over the City; the Lords of Finance never miss an opportunity to tell the FT that they don’t like/trust him. Your deficit-reduction message is on the other hand clear – but voters don’t seem to like it, believe it is actually necessary and seem worried about the “Sword of Cable”, which, like that of Damocles, is said to hang over the country by a hair and can come plunging down

David Blackburn

Should Cameron attack Brown or Clegg?

Obviously, yesterday’s disaster has written-off tonight’s debate for Brown. But ‘Bigot-gate’ is obscuring the European bailout crisis. Allister Heath and Iain Martin surmise that the euro crisis gives David Cameron a further advantage, if he can exploit it. Iain writes: ‘Mr. Cameron has just been dealt a potential ace by the markets. It will be interesting to see if he realizes this and works out a way of playing it in a manner that voters understand. The worsening crisis in the euro zone has attracted very little attention in the general election, thus far. After all, the U.K. isn’t a member. However, the growing crisis is at root about large

Peter Hoskin

To what extent should Cameron and Clegg use Brown’s gaffe against him?

Given the timing of Brown’s Mega Gaffe, you’ve got to wonder how it will play out in the TV debate tonight.  Will it, for instance, mean that he gets a hostile reception?  Will he try to defuse the situation by repeating his apologies, or perhaps by making some sort of light out of it (“Yesterday, I met a woman in Rochdale…”)?  Will it overwhelm the deeply serious economic questions which need asking and answering?  And so on. There’s one question, in particular, though, that I’d be keen to hear CoffeeHousers’ views on: how much should Cameron and Clegg use Brown’s gaffe against him?  My thinking is that they’ve played it

Daniel Korski

Goodbye Euro?

I have just visited the two countries that are making the headlines in the European newspapers – Germany and Greece. During my trip, I met officials, journalists, and key advisers to both Prime Minister Papandréou and Chancellor Merkel. Sitting on the flight back to London I have regrettably come to the conclusion that the Euro is probably done for – or that Greece will default inside the Eurozone. Until now, I have dismissed the pessimists, thinking that the Euro would be saved. But after my trip I have changed my view for a number of reasons. Nothing I saw in Greece has convinced me that the Greek government is able,

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

Ten reasons why this is a catastrophe for Brown and Labour

Every politician will be thinking “there but for the grace of God…” today – but the Gillian Duffy incident is not just a gaffe. It is bad for Gordon Brown and Labour on very many levels. Here are ten of them.   1. The image of the Politburo pulling away in the Jag, slagging off the proles. This confirms the idea of an elite, who sneer at voters in private but try to charm them in public. And the idea that politicians (of all parties) say one thing on camera, and another when they think no one is listening. 2. The is not just a gaffe, but the PM on

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Why Cameron was right about the regions

Given that Labour has put out a hilarious plea to discuss “issues” rather than personality (or lack thereof), I would like to rise to this challenge to discuss an excellent point raised by David Cameron on Friday: that the state spending/GDP ratio is far too high in many parts of the UK and needs to be lowered. Stating this utterly uncontroversial fact landed him in a bit of trouble, I suspect because of lack of understanding of the issues. So, in the spirit of Labour’s plea, here are some facts. Cameron told Paxo that: “In Northern Ireland, it is quite clear – and almost every party accepts this – that

Saturday

Friday

Fraser Nelson

No, Gordon, this recession hasn’t been milder than others

Today’s new economic data gives a handy piece of ammo to the Conservatives.  It is untrue that, as Gordon Brown says, this recession was somehow milder than others. The economy contracted by 6.3 percent this time – it was 3.8 percent in the 1980s recession and just 2.4 percent in the early 1990s recession. I feel confident that the Conservatives will get this point across clearly, next time that Brown boasts that this recession has been somehow milder, thanks to his decision to “intervene” (ie, double our national debt). The increase in unemployment has also been worse than the 1990s, but not quite as bad as the 1980s (perhaps because

Peter Hoskin

GDP grows by 0.2 percent in first quarter of 2010

Now we know: the official preliminary estimate says that GDP grew by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year. So the double dip looks to have been averted (for now) – but not by much. The figure is at the low end of economists’ estimates and lower than the growth experienced in the final quarter of 2009. Labour, of course, will spin this as further proof that we can’t risk the recovery by voting for those dastardly Tories.  And the Tories will say that it shows just how damaging Gordon Brown has been for our economy.  But I wonder whether voters will choose between the two messages, or

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

Britain’s brain drain

Voting with one’s feet is always the most sincere sign of faith – or despair – in a country and its government. And for many the departure lounge, rather than the ballot box, is the surest route to better schools, lower tax and safer streets. The phrase “brain drain” was used in the 1970s and isn’t now – strange, because the emigration rate has doubled to 1,080 a day (ONS data here).  It’s not just Brits: over the years, even the immigrants who have lived here for long enough are scarpering. But because of our obsession with immigration, we haven’t really paid attention to those leaving. And incomers do outnumber