Economy

As declaration day (the rather pompus name that news organisations have come up with for the moment when Gordon Brown actually calls the election) draws nearer, the Tory campaign is sharpening up. This morning’s operation on National Insurance was impressive, enabling the party to get a second set of headlines out of its plan to stop Labour’s National Insurance rise. The letter from 23 business leaders supporting the Tory position worked on several levels. First, it got the Tories’ tax cut back on the top of the news agenda along with its clear message: seven out of ten workers will be better off under the Conservatives. Second, it strengthened the

Philip Hammond gave the first presentation at this Big Society event, and he admitted something that the Tories don’t admit too often.  First, he attacked Gordon Brown for doubling the national debt. And then he added that, “unfortunately, we’re on a trajectory where the national debt will double again over the next few years.” Hammond’s right to highlight this. The danger for a Tory government is that their attacks on Brown in 2010 could look hypocritical in 2015, when they would have presided over rising debt as well. The key thing is to pin the blame for this situation on Brown, and ask whether he can be trusted to keep

Tomorrow’s Word of the Day is ‘Big’.  That is to say: the Tories are holding a Big Event, on the theme of the Big Society, and they’ve got all their Big Hitters out for the occasion.  In all, there’ll be presentations from eleven shadow Cabinet members, followed by a speech from David Cameron.  You don’t often see such a concentration of Tory firepower outside of conference season. What’s clear, then, is that the Tories regard tomorrow as an important day for their election campaign.  And so they should.  Their Big Society agenda – aka, decentralisation – spans across some of their most encouraging policy ideas.  From Michael Gove’s plans to

Gordon Brown and David Cameron have just been facing each other in the Commons chamber. Brown was notionally reporting back on the European summit meeting, but in relaity Brown and Cameron were setting the stage for the Chancellor’s debate tonight. Cameron claimed that there was a new dividing line in British politics, the Tories for ‘efficency and aspiration’ and Labour for ‘waste and taxes.’ Brown claimed that the Tories were indulging in panic measures and that their plans announced today would ‘withdraw the support that is necessary for the economy to have a sustained recovery.’ Brown might have some Keynesian economists on his side when he says this. But it

After reading Brown’s claims in the Guardian today, this Kill A Minister mechanism in his speech today rather jumped out at me: “I will set out a clear and public annual contract for each new Cabinet Minister, detailing what I expect them and their department to deliver to the British people, and that their continued appointment is dependent on their delivery just as it would be in a business or any other organisation.” I mean, you can just imagine what Alistair Darling’s first “contract” would look like: You, the Chancellor, will undertake to deliver the following to the British people: i) Economic growth of 5 percent in 2010-11 ii) A

I’m at a loss. How can a government that will raise the national debt to £1.4 trillion be trusted to run the economy? The Daily Politics/Com Res poll shows that Labour is more trusted on the economy than the Tories; it indicts George Osborne’s political performance. As Fraser noted, Osborne blew an unprecedented opportunity on yesterday’s Today programme. The danger inherent in a £1.4 trillion national debt is not a difficult argument to make. Tax hikes, inflation and soaring interest rates will be the progeny of Brown’s continued borrowing binge. Yet Osborne confined his attack to valid but esoteric points about credit ratings and a list of acronyms. Ken Clarke

Alistair Darling was terribly proud of the Government’s record in his Budget speech today.  But he again dodged the question of how he’ll get the deficit under control.  Ruth Lea has called this his “do little” Budget. With the country still facing hundreds of billions in borrowing, the few billion being saved are virtually neglible.  There are huge downside risks for those borrowing forecasts as we get onto the more contentious growth projections from 2011-12 onwards, which are way above City expectations.  And everything will get much worse if borrowing costs rise – Mike Denham has explored the frightening possibilities in a blog for the TPA. We had a proud