Eu referendum

Tuesday

Ross Clark

What if we vote Remain… then still have a recession?

A vote to leave the EU would cause economic Armageddon. We know because David Cameron and George Osborne have told us so, claiming that there is a wide consensus among economists on the matter. But what if – as now seems increasingly likely – we vote to remain but then have a recession anyway? The Prime Minister and the Chancellor are very quick to quote economists when making the case for us to stay in the EU, saying we should listen to the experts. They would do well to listen to what the experts are saying about the chances of a recession.  A Wall Street Journal survey in May put

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Steve Hilton claims PM was told net migration target is ‘impossible’ whilst we’re in the EU

So long as the economy was at the top of the agenda, ‘Remain’ will have felt safe in the knowledge that ‘Leave’ could do little to win over the public’s trust. But today, the Prime Minister has his former aide and friend Steve Hilton to thank for bringing the issue of migration soaring back into the headlines. What’s particularly dangerous for the Government about what Steve Hilton had to say is his claim that the PM was directly told in 2012 that meeting the promise to bring net migration down to the ‘tens of thousands’ was impossible. Here’s what Steve Hilton told the Daily Mail: ‘We were told, directly and

Monday

Philip Sime

Frexit and Italexit? Support for the EU dwindles in France and Italy

Various freak political events—the unexpected Tory election victory, the rise of Ukip—have conspired to allow Britain to hold its referendum on the EU this week. But if the rest of Europe were asked, what would they say? The Berlin-based Bertelsmann Foundation commissioned a study of 11,000 people in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland to find out their attitudes towards Brexit and to the EU. Just 41 per cent of French and 54 per cent of Germans want us to stay. The Spanish are most keen for Britain to Remain, with 64 per cent opposing Brexit, followed by Poland with 61 per cent. But the survey also revealed that French and Italian referendums

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

Remain have revealed their own hateful prejudices

Who is really poisoning public debate? Who is it that has turned what ought to have been a smart and deep discussion about Britain and the EU into a prejudice-fest? I know we’re meant to think it’s the Leave campaign, with its cries of ‘The Albanians are coming!’ and ‘Oh my God, Turkey!’. Leave stands accused of fomenting xenophobia, of tapping into a ‘brainless paranoia’ among certain sections of the public, of ‘unleashing furies’. But what about Remain? The Remain side, to my mind, has proven itself just as adept at spreading prejudice. Scratch that: over the past few days Remain has proven itself better than Leave, a world-beater in

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Coffee House shots: Have ‘Remain’ done enough to win?

We’re in the final days of campaigning before the country goes to the polls on Thursday. But what is the mood like in both the ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ camps? James Forsyth says on today’s Coffee House Shots podcast that he thinks the ‘Remain’ camp are feeling fairly confident. Speaking to Isabel Hardman, he says: ‘Remain are certainly more relaxed than they were this time last week. They feel that they have the economy front and centre. They are very encouraged by these polls which show people are concerned about the effect of Brexit on their personal finances. On the ‘Leave’ side, I think they feel that because this is so

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Every political generation has its low moment; this is ours

No, there was never a Golden Age of genteel and elevated discourse. Never a time when the fate of the country didn’t seem to hang in the balance or when politics was ever played for anything less than all the marbles. Check old election-day copies of the Daily Mirror if you doubt this. Check the hammers and tongs with which Gladstone and Disraeli set about each other if you doubt this. Check the 1970s, when Britain seemed to be falling apart, or the early 1980s when terrorism and race riots and industrial action scarred the British political and social landscape. Politics is, and always has been, a contact sport and every generation

Tom Goodenough Tom Goodenough

Baroness Warsi defects to ‘Remain’: ‘Leave aren’t the kind of people I’d get on a night bus with’

Baroness Warsi hasn’t always been one to help out the Prime Minister when he’s in a spot of bother. But her high-profile defection from the Brexit camp to Remain will certainly have put a smile on David Cameron’s face this morning. It’s not so much that Warsi was an essential part of Vote Leave’s plans; the campaign have been keen to downplay Warsi’s importance today, saying in a tweet that ‘they weren’t aware she was ever part of the Vote Leave campaign’. Michael Fabricant, a leading Brexiteer has also questioned whether Warsi was ever involved in the first place, asking ‘Was she ever in Out?’ Whilst it’s true her involvement

Sunday

Isabel Hardman

Pumped-up Cameron takes pummelling on immigration 

David Cameron put in a confident, passionate performance tonight in his Question Time grilling. At one point the Prime Minister broke into a forceful rant about Winston Churchill deciding to carry on fighting the war, arguing that Britain shouldn’t quit now, either. It was clearly planned, in fact Cameron rather have the impression that someone in a remote control tower had flicked a switch and turned him into Passionate Orator Mode, a mode so unstoppable that he kept talking over David Dimbleby until he had finished his little speech. It was like a more pumped-up version of the ‘that’s what pumps me up’ speech of the General Election. This might

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Corbyn’s immigration honesty creates a problem for Remain

Jeremy Corbyn went on The Marr Show this morning to talk about Jo Cox’s tragic death and the EU referendum. Corbyn talked movingly about Cox and how MPs don’t want to be cut off from the communities that they serve. The conversation then moved on to the EU referendum. Andrew Marr asked Corbyn if he thought there should be an upper limit on immigration. Corbyn replied, rightly, ‘I don’t think you can have one while you have free movement of labour’. Now, this is true. But it very much isn’t the Remain campaign script; David Cameron has even refused to admit that his ambition to reduce immigration to the tens

Anthony Wells

Latest polls show a swing back to Remain

We are now in the final week of the referendum campaign and the swing back towards the status quo appears to be in full force. We at YouGov have published two polls this morning, one conducted for ITV’s Good Morning Britain between Wednesday and Thursday, and one conducted for the Sunday Times on Thursday and Friday. After the clear leads for Leave that polls were showing a week ago, both of our polls published today show the race coming back to neck-and-neck again: a two point Leave lead in the Good Morning Britain poll, a one point Remain lead in the Sunday Times poll. While there will be speculation about

Steerpike Steerpike

Sam Cam’s sister vows never to vote Tory again if Leave win

There’s a lot at stake for David Cameron when it comes to the EU referendum. As well as having to try to mend party divisions, a vote for Brexit could bring an end to Cameron’s time as Prime Minister. Now he has another problem to deal with should the nation vote to leave — his sister-in-law will never vote for his party again. Although Cameron can at least count on Emily Sheffield’s support in the EU referendum, this will change if Leave win. Samantha Cameron’s sister — who is the deputy editor of Vogue — has been doing her best of late to motivate voters to back Remain. Alas if things don’t go to plan on Thursday, she has vowed

Saturday

James Forsyth

Boris makes it clear he isn’t interested in a coup against David Cameron

The murder of Jo Cox was a moment that leaves you numb; an MP paying the ultimate price for the open society we live in. For the fact that our representatives live and work among us. Despite this tragedy, democracy must go on. By this time next week, the EU referendum will be over. The country will have made up its mind. Whether it is Leave or Remain, the UK will need a period of stability. This means David Cameron staying on as Prime Minister and, as I reveal in The Sun today, plans are already well advanced to ensure that this happens. Boris Johnson has signed a letter saying

Thursday

Peter Jones

Plato on the EU referendum

Our politicians, realising that the referendum campaign will be settled not by themselves under the usual parliamentary constraints but by the Twitter-maddened populace under no constraints at all, have decided to abandon any principles they may have and play the straight populist game. Plato well understood the behaviour and its consequences. In his Republic, he envisages a man in charge of a large and powerful animal who studies its moods and needs. He learns when to approach and handle it, when and why it is savage and gentle, the meaning of the various noises it makes and how to speak to it to annoy or calm it. He might then

Toby Young Toby Young

Who’s sabotaging my Leave campaign?

I’ve never been a great believer in karma. After all, in the absence of some kind of cosmic enforcer of karmic justice what guarantee is there that good deeds will be rewarded or bad deeds punished? Let’s not forget that Joseph Stalin was responsible for between 34 and 49 million deaths, depending on whose estimate you accept, yet died of natural causes in his own bed at the age of 73. Karma? What karma? But events of the past fortnight have caused me to revise my opinion. It’s all to do with the massive Vote Leave billboard outside my house in Acton, and an incident that occurred 42 years ago

Alexander Chancellor

Long life | 16 June 2016

It was 41 years ago that The Spectator first urged its readers to vote Brexit in a referendum, but the circumstances were different then. In 1975 the Establishment was generally enthusiastic for Europe. Most of the Tory party, including its new leader, Margaret Thatcher, was keen to keep Britain in the Common Market it had only recently joined. The dissenters were few among the Tories and were mostly on the left wing of the Labour party and the trade unions, which saw Europe as inimical to socialism. Almost a third of Harold Wilson’s cabinet members were Eurosceptics, and he set the precedent (later followed by David Cameron) of suspending cabinet

Melissa Kite

Real life | 16 June 2016

‘This EU passport is an outrage. I want a British one!’ Not my words, Cydney’s. The spaniel is coming round to my way of thinking on the EU referendum after visiting the vet’s to get the necessary paperwork for her forthcoming trip to the Dordogne — or Dor-DOG-ne, as she prefers to call it. After spending a small fortune on her bed and board at the dogsitter the last time I went away, I decided she would come on holiday with me this summer. As soon as I have cast my Leave vote on 23 June, I shall be packing us into the Volvo and heading for the Eurotunnel and

Charles Moore Charles Moore

The Spectator’s Notes | 16 June 2016

The Remain campaign takes as its model the ‘No’ one in the 2014 Scottish referendum. First and last — hence the Osborne/Darling fantasy horror Budget on Wednesday — inspire fear. Second, late in the day, leave it all to Labour and get Gordon Brown to make a passionate speech (Mr Brown took this too literally and made almost exactly the same passionate speech). Finally, shortly before polling, get leaders of all stripes to make a solemn ‘vow’ to win over the doubters. I am trying to work out what that vow could be. All 27 other member states promising some guarantee of Britain’s independence within the EU? This device has

Andrew Marr

Diary – 16 June 2016

Flabby, vaguely disorientated and, more than three years on, still struggling with stroke recovery, I am on a radical diet. No booze, no caffeine of any kind, no lots of other things — sausages, bacon, roast meat, you name it. Not a lot of fun, but the revelation has been coffee: for well over 40 years I have believed that I can only function in the morning after pints of coal-black, extremely strong caffeine. And now, aged 57, I find that it was total horlicks all along — I feel perkier, less tired and less stressed (after a hard few days) without the stuff. This makes me a real oddity

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

The Brexit debate has exposed the Establishment

Yesterday, on the Thames, in a bizarre battle of political flotillas, we got a glimpse of the elite rage that motors much of the Remain camp. On one of the pro-EU boats, Bob Geldof, a knight, superbly well-connected, who has earned millions, made wanker gestures and gave a two-fingered eff-you to the people on the anti-EU boats — who were mainly fishermen whose livelihoods have been wrecked by Brussels. One of these fishermen, his face ashen with desperation, shouted — almost cried, in fact — about earning £50 a week and not knowing where his next mortgage payment is going to come from, largely thanks to EU regulations on the

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Remain is now Project Grouch in the EU referendum

A couple of months ago, the Leave campaign seemed constantly grumpy, complaining about media coverage, colleagues and the use of the government machine in this referendum. But now, with just a week to go until polling day, this seems to have reversed. The Brexiteers’ continuing poll lead has spooked Remain, and Remain really isn’t dealing with it all that well. It wasn’t just the way that the pro-Remain politicians ganged up on Boris Johnson during their TV debate last week. And it isn’t just the way that government ministers including George Osborne seem to be resorting to increasingly desperate interventions such as a scary Brexit Budget that disgusted so many