Eu referendum

We are only days away from seeing Donald Tusk’s proposed text for the UK/EU deal. The President of the European Council is expected to circulate a draft early next week following his Sunday night supper with David Cameron. But, as I write in The Sun this morning, Downing Street is keen to stress that the publication of this draft doesn’t mean that the renegotiation is over. They are adamant that Cameron will have a chance to toughen up the terms at the European Council on February the 18th. Cameron’s problem is that he would like a deal at the February Council, so that he can have a referendum in June.

Why is David Cameron having such trouble persuading Jean-Claude Juncker to give in to his minimal demands for EU reform? The Prime Minister pledged, in a Tory manifesto, to restrict welfare for migrants for the first four years they’re in Britain: not as an ‘emergency’, but as a matter of routine. He was returned with a majority, and under British democracy this means it ought to happen. If the Lords were to try to frustrate this, the PM would overrule them because it was a manifesto pledge, voted on by the public. Why accept a veto from the EU? But the polls show a clear lead for ‘in’ – a ComRes

David Cameron wants to get the European Union referendum over with quickly — and understandably so. Things are still going well for him, and his political opposition is in disarray. The ‘in’ campaign will draw heavily upon his personal authority and the public is not (yet) fed up with him. Ideally, he wants to start campaigning next month — and many of his allies are at it already. Opinion polls show a large number of undecided voters. So this may very well be a campaign where a great many are open to persuasion and hoping for a high-quality debate. They will have been disappointed so far. The ‘in’ campaign has

It’s fair to say that David Cameron’s answer to John Baron at last week’s Prime Minister’s Questions, in which the Tory leader basically confirmed to his backbench colleague that he was ignoring him, hasn’t exactly helped relations with the eurosceptics in the Tory party. The row was splashed across the front page of the Sunday Telegraph this weekend, and I now understand that Baron has secured a Commons debate that will take up the issue he has been trying to raise with the Prime Minister. Baron’s debate will be in a backbench business session on 4 February, and has a rather spiky motion for discussion: ‘That this House believes in the

With the government still convinced that there’s a better than 50:50 chance of a deal at the February EU Council which would pave the way for an EU referendum in June, the pressure on Tory backbenchers to back the Prime Minister is being stepped up. This week, saw the launch of the Cameron endorsed, pro-EU membership Conservatives for Reform in Europe group. Those involved in this group are confident, as I write in The Sun today, that they will get the support of a majority of Tory MPs. Tory MPs are being left in no doubt as to what side Cameron wants them on come the referendum. The message to

As David Cameron continued his charm offensive in Europe today on a visit to the Czech Republic, are there signs he is feeling the heat over his EU renegotiation? In his press conference, the PM remained almost relentlessly positive as he spoke about ‘solutions’ and ‘working together’ with other European leaders. But he also appeared to offer a brief flash of insight into the pressure he is under to get a good deal for Britain over EU renegotiation – saying that doing so was ‘hard work’. He said: ‘It’s hard work because what we are looking for is real and substantive change. But I firmly believe there is a pathway

David Cameron is giving a speech in Davos later today with a message for British business: he wants to enlist them in his campaign for Britain to stay in the EU. Not that he puts it in such terms. We’re still in a phoney war where, in theory, Cameron is still negotiating, and might very well say that he wants Britain out of the EU. But in practice, the campaign has begun. He has a series of meetings with other EU leaders. He hopes for a deal next month and a referendum in June or July. Any doubt that the campaign has begun should be dispelled by the tone of

The EU referendum is looming, but the biggest fight at present is not between the two sides of the argument but the different ‘out’ factions. Only one campaign can get the official Electoral Commission designation, which is leading to some rats-in-a-sack behaviour from Leave.EU and Vote Leave, made worse by the launch of Peter Bone’s Grassroots Out group. The problem for the two sides, who are both calling each other names, is that they have to demonstrate to the Electoral Commission that they are the group that ‘represents to the greatest extent those campaigning for the outcome’, and this includes setting out ‘how you plan to represent other campaigners for

Before the election, the Tories talked about introducing a British Bill of Rights in their first 100 days in office. But eight months on from the election, the government hasn’t even started consulting on it yet. Some of this delay is understandable. When Michael Gove was made Justice Secretary, he wanted to work out his own solution to this problem. But the timetable has just kept slipping. After the election, we were told proposals would come in the autumn. Then, it was before the end of the year. Then in December, in the New Year. Yet, we still haven’t seen these proposals—and won’t in the next few weeks either. But,

George Osborne’s Newsnight interview has drawn ire from the Eurosceptics chiefly because the Chancellor used it to stamp on any suggestion that there might be a second EU referendum in which Brussels offered the UK all the changes it wanted in the first place in order to tempt it back into the European Union. But Osborne also reiterated last night that the ‘Treasury is 100 per cent now focused on achieving the renegotiation’ and wasn’t drawing up contingency plans for Brexit. The problem for ministers is that any admission or leak of such contingency plans would be written up as a Whitehall panic, or a secret desire on the part

The pre EU referendum skirmishing stepped up a notch today. Chris Grayling became the first member of the Cabinet to start making the case for Out. While Vote Leave and Stronger In tangled over the question of a second referendum. As I write in the magazine this week, Vote Leave is increasingly keen on the idea of promising a second referendum on the terms of exit if Britain votes Out. The idea is that this would ‘de-risk’ voting Out and protect the campaign against claims from IN that Britain would get an awful deal from the rest of the EU if it voted to leave. I understand that George Osborne

David Cameron’s admission on the Marr Show this morning that the EU referendum might take place either a little later in 2016 than most expected or indeed in 2017 isn’t what has exercised eurosceptics. From their point of view, a later referendum will give them more time to set out their arguments for a change from the status quo. But what has annoyed them is the Prime Minister’s suggestion that the government was not drawing up contingency plans for Britain voting to leave the European Union. Marr asked him whether the government was prepared for the possibility of leaving the EU. Cameron replied: ‘I don’t think that is the right