Eu referendum

The EU referendum makes me suspect that the grownups don’t know what they’re doing. I can see how we got to this point but it seems absurd that something so fundamental should be up – not just  for debate but possibly even – for reversal. It is doubly absurd because David Cameron has said that he will be campaigning – as you would expect of a conservative – for the status quo. So why are you doing this? I mouth at the television, wishing heartily that he would fight his internal party battles on his own time. Bewilderment is, it seems to me, one of the main forces behind this referendum. Some

It is unfashionable to quote polls these days but one recent finding went unremarked even though it is remarkable. It showed that only 15 per cent of members of the Conservative Party want to pull out of the EU. From the noise surrounding the debates on the Referendum Bill you might believe that this is a surprise. In reality the vast majority of Conservatives at all levels of the Party want Britain to stay in a reformed EU. We believe it is now time for the silent Conservative majority to get behind David Cameron and start to make the case for the UK’s continued membership of the EU and the

Dominic Cummings is the man drafted in to put together the putative No campaign for the EU referendum. Cummings has a tendency to surprise and he has done that today with a piece that pushes the idea that the No campaign should say that there would be a second referendum if Britain votes Out. This second vote would be on the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU. Cummings’ thinking is that this would de-risk voting No. People would be simply rejecting the deal that David Cameron had negotiated rather than voting to leave outright. Cummings sums up the advantages of a second referendum for No thus: This approach might allow NO to

The EU ‘out’ campaigners have two troublesome image problems to contend with: the message of ‘No’ is intrinsically negative and will scare off voters, plus they are looking to change the status quo. Business for Britain, which is expected by many in Westminster to be one of the groups forming the ‘No’ campaign, is attempting to remedy the negativity of a Brexit with its new publication ‘Change or Go’. In the 1000-page report, BfB outlines in detail the changes British businesses want to the UK’s relationship with the EU. It argues that if these changes can’t be won, then it’s time to leave. The report counters the idea put about by ‘In’ campaigners that Britain would

The campaigns to keep Britain ‘In’ or ‘Out’ of the EU are keen to begin their work. The Times today reveals details of a cross-party Eurosceptic group, which is expected to morph into the Brexit campaign. From the Conservatives, Owen Paterson, Steve Baker and Bernard Jenkin are part of this new group. Kate Hoey, Kelvin Hopkins and Graham Stringer represent Labour, while Douglas Carswell has been attending meetings on behalf of Ukip. Dominic Cummings, Michael Gove’s former adviser, has been brought on board to oversee the committee and Stuart Wheeler, a former Ukip donor, is one of the financial backers. If the Out-ers hope to be successful, this is just the sort of broad group they

It is natural to assume that, if a majority votes No in the referendum on Britain’s EU membership, we shall then leave. It is not automatically so. After the vote, we would still be members. The government would then — morally at least — be mandated to negotiate Britain’s withdrawal. In theory, unlikely though it may currently seem, the EU could try to block this. Even assuming that it did not do so, the eventual terms of the withdrawal would not automatically be agreed by Parliament and would not necessarily correspond with the wishes of those who voted No. The context for our vote will be David Cameron’s presentation of a package

The government has defeated Bill Cash’s rebel amendment on the changes to the ‘purdah’ rules during the EU referendum campaign, but only thanks to Labour abstaining. The actual vote was 288 to 97. Now, the SNP voted with the Tory rebels as did Douglas Carswell, a few Labour Euro-scpetics, Plaid and the DUP. This means that around 2o to 30 Tories rebelled, we’re still waiting for the full division list to get the precise number. This is a rebellion that is embarrassing rather than earth shattering. But with Labour support, it would have been enough to overturn the government’s majority, which is a reminder of how hard governing with a

Privately, senior Tories admit that winning the EU referendum, by which they mean securing a vote to stay in on Cameron’s new terms, is the easy part. The more difficult challenge, they admit, will be keeping the Tory party from splitting over the issue. But this realisation doesn’t seem to be informing how the government is actually approaching the referendum hence the row over the attempt to lift the normal purdah restrictions for the campaign itself. Cameron should be bending over backwards to ensure that the whole process is seen as ‘fair’ and to ensure that everyone on the Tory  bench has to accept the result. For as one senior

Will the country be torn apart by the EU referendum? That’s the argument made by Chris Deerin on the capitalist running dog website CapX. Deerin, a Scottish Unionist, says it’s now Great Britain’s turn to go through the same painful and divisive process that Scotland endured last year. Personally I doubt that will happen, although it’s possible that a slender vote in favour of remaining in the EU may in the long term be divisive. The main problem with the analogy is that there is just no Ukip equivalent of the aggressive Scottish nationalists who shouted at Jim Murphy. There is a Kipper version of the Cybernats, but even online

The second reading of the EU referendum bill today was dominated by questions about the voting franchise and the neutrality of Whitehall. On the first topic, the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Greens expressed concerns that 16 and 17 year olds won’t be allowed to vote. The SNP’s foreign affairs spokesman Alex Salmond said it was ‘deeply insulting’ not to include under 18s in the referendum, while shadow foreign secretary Hilary Benn said there was a ‘ring of familiarity’ to denying younger ‘uns the vote — a reference to similar arguments used in the past to deny women the vote. Whereas the voting franchise is unlikely to stop the bill from moving forward, the lack of purdah is looking

It’s not clear who David Cameron is trying to annoy more: his party or the press pack following him at the G7 summit in Bavaria. But what is clear, at least in the Prime Minister’s mind, is that he has been misinterpreted on the issue of a free vote in the EU referendum. Not over-interpreted, as Number 10 said this morning. ‘It’s clear to me that what I said yesterday was misinterpreted,’ he said, explaining that he was referring to the renegotiation: ‘I was clearly referring to the process of renegotiation. But the point is this. I have always said what I want is an outcome for Britain that keeps