Eu

The Spectator podcast: The Brexit bounce | 10 September 2016

On the morning of the 24th June, Britain woke to find its stock market shattered and its pound pummelled. It appeared – for a brief moment – like all the prophecies of the Brexit doomsayers, not least the Great Seer Osborne, had come true. But then, from the wreckage of that mid-summer morning, green shoots began to appear, and now, more than two months down the line, it seems that Britain has bounced back. In his cover piece this week, Ross Clark argues that the Remain campaign fell victim to the perils of believing their opinion to be ‘objective fact’, and that economic recovery has humiliated the Treasury, Bank of

Wetherspoon’s boss is right to mock doomster economists over Brexit

In the referendum run-up, we were inundated with warnings and messages of doom and gloom about the untold damage Brexit would unleash – and unleash immediately. It took a pub boss – Tim Martin, the founder of JD Wetherspoon’s – to add a bit of perspective. Why, he argued, would consumer sentiment plunge of a majority voted Brexit and got what they wanted? Why, if we wouldn’t actually leave the EU for two years, would the economy fall of a cliff? At the time, he was mocked for knowing nothing more than how to pull pints. But now, with the prophecies of economic woe having failed to materialise, it seems he was more

Aristotle on Brexit voters

It comes as no surprise to find that there has recently been much talk among Brexit supporters about ‘the wisdom of crowds’. The question fascinated Aristotle, who discussed it at some length in his Politics. Aristotle (4th century BC) firmly believed that only the ‘best’ should rule. Nevertheless, he had lived in a direct people’s democracy in Athens, and agreed that ‘perhaps, for all its difficulties, it has something to be said for it’. He proceeded to make the case by a series of analogies. The many, he suggested, might be collectively better than the few ‘in the same way that a feast to which all contribute is better than one

Real life | 8 September 2016

What is happening to estate agents? Or let me put it another way. If the professional classes thought they were going to escape unscathed from ‘free movement of people’ then they were wrong. I feel it is only fair to warn the office workers and the suited and booted that their salaries are no longer safe from the Eurovision job contest. I know this because I have been trying to sell my flat for a while and a part of the problem has been that the agent put in charge of selling it was a young girl who, while sweet, lacked the ideal vocab range. I overheard her doing a

Migrant benefits

Calm is slowly returning to the debate about Britain and Europe. The shrillness of the referendum campaign, and the hysteria from people who ought to have known better, is giving way to an acceptance that the end is not nigh and that things could be as good, if not better, than before. The idea that the British public had somehow voted for a recession is being steadily abandoned. The next stage is to accept that Brexit was not a populist yawp about protecting our borders. It was not a demand to stop immigration, but to manage it better. So when Theresa May rejected an Australian-style points-based immigration system this week,

Mystery on Mount Athos

I have just returned from one of the world’s most secretive states. I had to apply for a visa a month beforehand and send in a copy of my passport. There is no way into this place by road; you have to arrive on an authorised boat and a policeman checks your visa against your passport before you board. Private boats must keep well offshore and may not land. The visa is valid for only three nights; you have to book each night in advance and may not spend more than one night in the same place. Only ten visas are granted a day. Women have always been forbidden here

Tom Goodenough

The Spectator podcast: The Brexit bounce

On the morning of the 24th June, Britain woke to find its stock market shattered and its pound pummelled. It appeared – for a brief moment – like all the prophecies of the Brexit doomsayers, not least the Great Seer Osborne, had come true. But then, from the wreckage of that mid-summer morning, green shoots began to appear, and now, more than two months down the line, it seems that Britain has bounced back. In his cover piece this week, Ross Clark argues that the Remain campaign fell victim to the perils of believing their opinion to be ‘objective fact’, and that economic recovery has humiliated the Treasury, Bank of

Ross Clark

The Brexit bounce

Next time it comes to redesigning the PPE course at Oxford, I suggest a module beginning with a quotation from George Osborne. It’s something he said to the Treasury Select Committee in May, back when he was still Chancellor: ‘If you look at the sheer weight of opinion, it is overwhelmingly the case that people who look at the case for leaving the EU come to the conclusion it would make the country poorer, and it would make the individuals in the country poorer, too.’ There might be advantages to Brexit, he said, ‘but let’s not pretend we’d be economically better off’. In other words: it wasn’t just George Osborne’s

James Forsyth

After Brexit, who should Britain let in?

Why has ‘trust’ became such a dominant issue in British politics in the early 21st century? Is it the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Or the arrogant ineptitude that led to the financial crisis and the bank bailouts? Or the parliamentary expenses scandal? Or is it, more than the above, the failure of successive governments to meet their immigration targets? Trust in politics will fall to dangerously low levels if-immigration continues as is following this year’s referendum. This is why the government has acknowledged that some control over EU immigration must be part of the Brexit deal. The extent of these restrictions will be key to

Theresa May: We have selection in state schools already, selection by house price

Theresa May received the traditional desk banging reception when she addressed the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers. May pleased Tory MPs by emphasising that they  would have more opportunity to feed into policy making process now through George Freeman and the policy board and the green papers that will—once again—precede white papers. But what most excited Tory MPs was what May said about opportunity and grammar schools. May said that she would give a speech on a 21st century education system soon, explaining how selective schools–in other words, grammars–fit into the mix. Strikingly, she defended an ‘element of selection’ arguing that there is selection already in the system, and it

James Forsyth

What we learnt about Brexit from Theresa May today

Theresa May began her statement on the G20 by talking about Brexit. She insisted that she wasn’t going to give a ‘running commentary’ or reveal the government’s negotiating hand as, she said, that would not deliver the best deal for Britain. In other words, we’ll all just have to wait and see what she negotiates. May’s insistence that she won’t rule anything in or out does lead to some rather bizarre moments. May repeatedly, and rightly, stressed the trade deals that the UK would seek to do outside the EU. But when Labour’s Emma Reynolds asked her to confirm that these deals would require leaving the customs union, May ducked

Tom Goodenough

Let’s not overhype a free trade deal with Australia

The best thing to say about the UK kicking off preliminary trade talks with Australia is that they’re a start. In that they show Britain is looking to do business around the world, they’re a welcome signal in the wake of the vote for Brexit. Given that some have taken the referendum to be a sign of Britain slamming the door shut, any talk which counters this false narrative is refreshing. Yet there’s also a danger of overhyping the significance of such a deal. And it’s worth reminding ourselves that signing such an agreement won’t be the answer for all of Britain’s troubles. The statistics make it clear that a trade deal with Australia would

How Alternative für Deutschland forced German politics to the right

‘When the world ends, I’ll go to Mecklenburg,’ quipped Bismarck, ‘because there, everything happens a hundred years later.’ Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has always been seen as somewhere behind the times, but has this sleepy backwater now become a portent of momentous things to come? In last weekend’s regional elections, Germany’s fledgling anti-immigration party, Alternative für Deutschland, came second, pushing Angela Merkel’s CDU into third place – in her own constituency. So was AfD’s Leif-Erik Holm right to say that this could be the beginning of the end for Merkel? And does this shock result mark the end of the beginning for AfD? I have a soft spot for Mecklenburg (my father’s family used

Some clues as to what David Davis means by Brexit

David Davis has just finished his first statement to the Commons on the process for the UK exiting the European Union. Davis’s initial statement stuck closely to what the government has said already; the coordinated Labour backbench heckle of ‘waffle, waffle’ had some truth to it. But it was striking that Davis said he hoped the UK’s security relationship with the EU would be as close or closer post-Brexit; in Whitehall, Britain’s intelligence and military capabilities are regarded as one of our key assets in the negotiation. But in answer to the questions that followed, Davis–a naturally frank politician—gave a clearer sense of what he means by Brexit. In answer

Isabel Hardman

Theresa May’s honeymoon period comes to an end

The Prime Minister and her colleagues are very slowly starting to reveal what they think they mean when they say ‘Brexit means Brexit’. This afternoon the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David Davis will give a statement to Parliament on what the terms of negotiation might resemble for Brexit – or at least what the terms that ministers have come up with over the summer are. It may be that the Government isn’t actually ready to set very much out at all, but is just trying to avoid an urgent question from a hostile MP by giving a statement. Davis has described this as ‘an historic and

Tom Goodenough

Is May dropping the ‘Leave’ campaign’s immigration policy?

‘Brexit means Brexit’, Theresa May has repeatedly reassured us. But it seems Brexit might not mean an introduction of a ‘points-based’ immigration policy which Vote Leave – and a number of cabinet ministers, including Boris Johnson – had called for during the referendum campaign. The Prime Minister said the system was no ‘silver bullet’ and planned to look ‘across the board’ for answers instead. As is becoming clearer – and as James Forsyth pointed out after May’s Marr interview yesterday – the Prime Minister has a style in front of journalists which involves giving little away. So offering up the small titbit that a points system might not feature in May’s

May says general election will be in 2020

Theresa May is on her way to her first G20 summit. But she has still sat down for the traditional start of term interview with Andrew Marr. Reading the transcript of it, it looks like a classic Theresa May interview: with very little given away. She avoided answering Marr’s questions on whether she would like to see more grammar schools and refused to say whether she shared her chief of staff Nick Timothy’s view that Chinese involvement in the Hinkley point nuclear project would be security risk. On Brexit, May said little new about the deal she would like to strike–confirming the sense that, as one Minister told me, the

The inside story of how the Brexit vote was won

In the months before the referendum, the ‘Leave’ campaign’s press operation had been in control of the campaign. But in the last three weeks, the baton was passed over to the ground campaign to get us over the line. Running a good ground campaign relies on three key phases. The first two of these – identification and motivation – are largely self-explanatory. Find target voters then work out how to enthuse them. The final stage is about getting out the vote – making sure people actually go to the polling station. This means ensuring your supporters vote in greater numbers than the other side (what’s known as ‘differential turnout’). The key to

A rotten windfall

It’s strange that, even now, the Brexit vote is routinely referred to as an expression of anger or frustration — as if the most easily baffled half of the population had voted in response to forces they could not understand. In fact, the result of the 23 June referendum seems to look wiser with every week that has passed. Of course, leaving has its risks. But 52 per cent of voters judged that a greater one lay in staying in a European Union that is changing all the time — and invariably for the worse. The British vision of the world — of free trade, friendly competition and respect for