Europe

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Cameron cheered by the Lib Dems, spared by the Tories, mocked by Labour

If you wanted proof that Cameron has softened his stance towards Europe since the hard chill of December, then just look to the Lib Dems. Nick Clegg, unlike then, was sat next to the Prime Minister as he gave his statement to the Commons this afternoon. And the questions that followed from the likes of Menzies Campbell and Simon Hughes were generally warm and approving. Campbell started by, in his words, ‘praising the pragmatism of the PM’. Hughes celebrated a ‘more successful and satisfactory summit than the one in December’. That praise, while friendly enough, creates obvious problems for Cameron — and it was those problems that Ed Miliband sought

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Cameron softens his stance on Europe — but who benefits?

‘We will insist that the EU institutions — the court, the commission — that they work for all 27 nations of the EU.’ So said David Cameron, back in December, suggesting that he’d block Europe’s ‘fiscal compact’ countries from using EU-wide institutions to enforce their, er, fiscal compact. But now this component of his ‘veto’ appears to have come to naught, and that veto is looking all the thinner for it. On the Today Programme this morning, William Hague confirmed that Britain wouldn’t block the use of EU institutions, such as the court, for the fiscal union. ‘We’re not intending to take action about that now,’ is how he put

Peter Hoskin

Greece is still the word ahead of today’s eurosummit

How about this for a claim by Nicolas Sarkozy, made in a TV appearance yesterday? ‘Europe is no longer at the edge of the cliff.’ It’s quite some statement, so let’s hear it again: ‘Europe is no longer at the edge of the cliff.’ Of course, Sarkozy has reasons for saying it beyond mere pre-electoral braggadocio: the rates paid on Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds have generally been falling since the the beginning of the year; the euro has been making some tentative progress against other currencies; and so on. But it still constrasts heavily with much else that is being said around the eurozone. Only last week, Angela Merkel

Friday

Fraser Nelson

Osborne needs to come up with radical growth policies, and soon

When it comes to defending the free market, and making the case for fiscal sanity, there’s scarcely anyone better than David Cameron. He was on superb form in Davos yesterday, giving much-needed blunt advice to the continentals. ‘Eurozone countries must do everything possible to get to grips with their own debts,’ he said. And he’s right. The snag, as I say in my Daily Telegraph column today, is that Cameron’s definition of getting to grips with debt involves increasing it more than Labour planned to, more than France, Germany, Italy or Portugal. On the first sign of trouble, his government gave up on its deficit reduction timetable – it will now

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Dave in Davos

Reading Cameron’s speech to the suits in Davos, one thing stands out: he’s in no mood to stop ‘lecturing’ the eurozone, as Nicolas Sarkozy would put it. The whole thing is saturated with firm advice for our European brethren, from generalities such as ‘Tinkering here and there and hoping we’ll drift to a solution simply won’t cut it any more,’ to specific policies that the Continent should introduce so that it can ‘recover its dynamism’. He even found space to attack the ‘madness’ of a Tobin tax, as well as to hawk the coalition’s deficit-reduction plan. It’s the sort of advice that could, of course, put Cameron further at odds

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Europe gives Osborne the context he needs

The political implications of today’s growth numbers are complex. On one level, a contraction in the economy should provide Miliband and Balls with an opportunity to make their economic case against the government. Indeed, Balls is already out with a statement calling the GDP figures a ‘damning indictment of David Cameron and George Osborne’s failed economic plan’. I suspect that Miliband is also looking forward to PMQs rather more than normal.   But on the other hand, as long as Cameron and Osborne enjoy a big lead on the economy — 18 points in the last ICM survey — bad economic news will reinforce voters’ tendency to stick close to

Monday

James Forsyth

A Chris Huhne prediction that didn’t come true

Chris Huhne attacked David Cameron for the EU veto in Cabinet back in December. At the time, one Cabinet minister told me that part of Huhne’s critique was that Cameron had scuppered the chances of a Liberal Democrat MEP, Sharon Bowles, being reelected as chair of the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, which deals with financial services.   But Bowles has been reelected. In a Lib Dem press release welcoming this, Nick Clegg declares that: ‘As party leader, I am proud that we have a leading Liberal Democrat in such a prominent and powerful position on the international scene. As UK Deputy Prime Minister, I am delighted and

Daniel Korski

Welcome, Croatia

Croatia’s EU referendum was overwhelming — more than two-thirds of voters favoured the young state’s accession to the European Union. This is an important moment. For it shows that another part of Yugoslavia is intent on leaving its violent past behind and move into the European mainstream. Croatia and its newly-elected government still faces many problems — corruption, judicial favouritism and xenophobia among them — but the journey to a milder and more moderate society can now continue.   When Croatia accedes to the EU, probably next year, it will be an example to those states in the Balkans, like Bosnia, Albania and Serbia, that wish to join the EU

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Osborne visits China, but can’t escape Europe

Yet another day here in Westminster that’s all about the economy. Nick Clegg has just delivered a speech on the subject to Mansion House, focusing on ‘responsible capitalism’, which we’ll blog shortly. And two prominent forecasting groups, the Ernst & Young ITEM Club and the Centre for Economic and Business Research, have suggested that we’re effectively back in recession. They both reckon that the economy shrank in the final quarter of last year, and is wilting even further in this current quarter. But, like the OECD, they also predict that this ‘double dip’ will be relatively short-lived and relatively mild. Against that backdrop, enter George Osborne. The Chancellor spoke from

Friday

Alex Massie

The Pound, the Euro and Other Scottish Pink Herrings

The crisis in euroland continues unstaunched and, perhaps, irrevocably. Naturally, being self-obsessed sorts and this being the week it is, one is drawn to consider the impact this must have on Alex Salmond and the prospects for Scottish independence. Plainly, the currency question is a difficult one for the First Minister. While the euro seemed solid it was at least straightforward, even though one wondered if swapping monetary policy set by the Bank of England for monetary policy set by the European Central Bank would necessarily be a great bargain. But the euro is no longer solid and uncertainty reigns. So one can appreciate why George Osborne has intervened, arguing

James Forsyth James Forsyth

S&P to downgrade France and Austria

The word is that France will be downgraded by Standard and Poor’s tonight. AFP is reporting that French officials expect France to drop to a AA+ rating, losing its treasured AAA status and increasing how much it will have to pay to borrow money. 2012 has, so far, been relatively quiet on the euro front. But expect the issue to return to centre stage over the coming weeks. There are the downgrades coming tonight – France is apparently not the only eurozone country that S&P will mark down with Austria set to lose its AAA rating too – and a coercive and chaotic Greek default seems increasingly likely. Add to

Thursday

James Forsyth

Would Spain stop Scotland from joining the EU?

Alex Salmond’s case for independence relies on Scotland joining the European Union. If an independent Scotland was a member of the EU, then Scotland would be part of the single market and free movement of labour across the border could continue (an independent Scotland would also have to join the euro, but that’s something Salmond is less keen to talk about). But, as one Whitehall source points out to me, it is far from certain that Scotland would be able to join the EU.   The Spanish are currently blocking Kosovo’s accession to the EU. Why? Because the Spanish, who don’t even recognise Kosovo as a state, fear the implications

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

A taxing kind of spin

The story being briefed out of the year’s first Franco-German Summit is that President Nicolas Sarkozy won the backing of Chancellor Angela Merkel for a tax on financial transactions, a levy that the British government objects to and that Ernst and Young say would leave a €116bn hole in Europe’s public finances. But before the City begins building barricades and the PM puts on his bulldog mask, it is worth taking another look at the news from Berlin. For no sooner had the agreement been announced than the tax was rejected by Chancellor Merkel’s junior coalition partner, the pro-business Free Democrats, who say they will only back a Europe-wide tax

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Dave talks film, finances and Europe

It was the second of the Today Programme’s New Year’s interviews with the three party leaders today; this one with David Cameron. And there was plenty to digest from it. So much, in fact, that we thought we’d bash out a transcript, so that CoffeeHousers can read it through for themselves. That’s below, but before we get there it’s worth highlighting a couple of things that Cameron says. First, his point that ‘we’ve seen a level of reward at the top that just hasn’t been commensurate with success’, which is another volley in the battle against the ‘undeserving rich’ that James mentioned yesterday. And then his extended admission, in reference

Sunday

Clarissa Tan

Happy New Year from world leaders

It’s the New Year — a time when politicians all over the globe get on their soapboxes and preach to their people. From Merkel’s pledge to do everything for the euro, to North Korea’s vow to defend their new leader unto death, to Putin’s speech laden with sexual innuendo, here’s a selection of this year’s messages from world leaders: Barack Obama: ‘I promise to do everything I can to make America a place where hard work and responsibility are rewarded, one where everyone has a fair shot and everyone does their fair share. That’s the America I believe in.’ Angela Merkel: ‘Today, you can trust that I will do everything

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

European integration that we can get behind

Part of the magic of the New Year’s Day concert from the Vienna Philharmonic is knowing that millions are watching the same event live, right throughout Europe. It’s perhaps the only cultural event that unites the continent in this way (other than Eurovision). Politically and economically, not very much binds us together, as the tensions within the European Union demonstrate. The continent is a model of diversity, which is why homogenisation attempts fail. But when it comes to culture, it’s a different story altogether — with classical music being, perhaps, one of the strongest unifying factors. Turn up to a concert hall in Edinburgh, Leeds or Athens to listen to

Saturday

Douglas Murray

How democracy fared in 2011

Even before we were a month in, 2011 was an historic year. Principally because in a region of the world where governments shift through military coup or foreign intervention, dictators fell — and others tottered — thanks to local popular uprisings. Whatever the outcome of those events (and I have expressed my fears elsewhere, here) they remain a landmark worth observing. Whether or not the coming years are any good at all for them, 2011 was a great year for democrats in the Middle East. In the older democracies of the West, however, 2011 was more disconcerting.   If anyone doubts this, consider the following experiment. It is the beginning of

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

What didn’t happen in 2011

In the run-up to every New Year, newspapers and the blogosphere are full of articles about what happened in the year just gone. 2011 was a particularly eventful year so there will be much to pick from. But what about the things that did not happen, though they were widely expected? Here are five things that did not take place — though, as the year unfolded, many people would have bet on their occurrence: 1) Algeria’s revolution. As one North African dictator after another fell to pro-democracy protesters, everyone expected Algeria to be next. But it wasn’t. there are many reasons for this, as Hakeem Debouche and Susi Denison argue

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

Who is the British foreign secretary?

Officially, of course, the answer to that question is William Hague – who has put in some decent work since assuming office, particularly during the Arab Spring. But, still, I ask it because, following the European Council, Nick Clegg seems to have usurped the Foreign Secretary’s role in a number of key areas. It was the Deputy Prime Minister who engaged the newly-elected Spanish leader, for example. It was also Clegg, not Hague, who was instrumental in bringing German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle to Britain on a ‘we still love you’ visit yesterday. And when it comes to phoning European leaders to press a UK position, it is the Deputy