Foreign policy

Hague joins Middle East protests…well, as good as

Foreign Secretary William Hague has arrived in Tunisia in order to support to the pro-democracy movement. Unlike his previous visit to Syria, which I think was poorly timed, this one is perfectly-timed. It could even end up looking like George Bush Snr’s visit to Poland in July 1989 when the US president publicly backed the revolutions sweeping across the European continent at the time and gave succour to the pro-democracy movements. Visits like this are so important to help the direction of travel. What people forget now is that in the Eastern Europe of 1989, the history of democracy was as limited as it is today in the Middle East.

General Hague, attack

William Hague must be feeling that the incoming rounds are coming closer and closer. The Spectator, The Daily Telegraph and now The Times (£) have each allowed their pages to be used as Forward Operating Bases from which to launch attacks against the coalition’s foreign policy. Even in the coalition’s own ranks, dissatisfied foot-soldiers (and a even a few senior officers) think that General Hague has lost his appetite for the fight. Tories talk about a man whose defeat in 2001left a permanent wound, and how the Christopher Myers fiasco left another gash. The government’s equivocal response to events in Egypt has provoked fresh criticism, while the army of eurosceptics,

Much more than a networking event

What’s the point of Davos? This is a question seldom addressed in the reports filed from the five-day “World Economic Forum” which ended on Sunday. Many speeches are made, many issues debated, but it is not a place where decisions are taken. It is not a G20. Manifestos are not launched there. It exists to serve a very particular function: every year for a short period of time it becomes the temporary capital of the globalised world. Top business and political leaders, distinguished academics and journalists – all committed to improving the state of the world – flock there to meet each other, swap ideas and then go home. This

Consensus reigns over PMQs

A very different PMQs this week: six questions on foreign affairs and almost total consensus between Cameron and Miliband. Miliband’s office had given No 10 advance warning of the topics they wanted to raise and the two agreed on pretty much everything. Miliband argued that ‘the best route to stability is through democracy.’ Cameron agreed but stressed that democracy means more than just elections. You get the picture. At the risk of disagreeing with Pete, I must say that the exchanges were a reminder of just how dull PMQs would be if it was not confrontational. For Miliband, the advantage in taking this more considered approach today was that it

The Failure of Realism: Diagnosis Without Any Prescription

These two posts by Melanie Phillips on the situation in Egypt are very useful. Clarifying, even. They merit a response not because it’s Melanie and she’s a neighbour but because she publishes a view that’s more widely held than you might think if you only consulted the broadsheets and the BBC. It may, I think, be summarised as: Barack Obama is throwing Mubarak under the bus and we’ll soon have Tehran on the Nile. A lot of people believe this or fear it the most probable outcome. They may, alas, be proven right. I’m struck, however, by their certainty that the Muslim Brotherhood will soon be running Egypt and, furthermore,

Alex Massie

I Love My Country, It’s the Government I Am Afraid Of

Perhaps Glenn Beck can ask this girl, interviewed in Tahrir Square, if she is just a stooge of the Muslim Brotherhood. Perhaps the “Realists” can ask her that too. Hopey-changey bullshit? Well, maybe. Perhaps the young and the liberal and the educated will receive a desperate, chilling awakening. But this is not set in stone. Plainly this girl does not speak for all Egyptians (and I’d like to know more about what Egyptians living outside the major cities think) but let’s not pretend either that this is a bogus or astroturf uprising. It’s real and its demands are real too. Fear the worst all you like, but these people deserve

Days of Hope, Not Rage, in Egypt.

Fraser asks where or who is the Egyptian Lech Walesa? Well the answer, somewhat improbably, seems to be Mohamed ElBaradei*. And he’s in Tahrir Square. Al Jazeera reports that the former IAEA chief has more backing than anyone might have expected just a week ago. The Muslim Brotherhood, secularists and socialists are all said to favour ElBaradei becoming interim president should Mubarak’s regime crumble to dust. I’m less pessimistic than Fraser**. (This may not be a difficult status to acquire.) He writes: I wish I could be more enthusiastic about the events in Egypt and Tunisia – but, as I say in my News of the World column (£) today,

Alex Massie

How Do You Say Alea Iacta Est in Arabic?

Like everyone else of sense, I’m wary of people who are too certain about anything that might happen next in Egypt. That suspicion certainly extends to my own opinions. I’m not sure we even know what the known knowns are, far less anything else. That said, I think one can reasonably suspect that the appointment of Omar Suleiman as Vice-President is neither a sign of Hosni Mubarak’s strength nor anything like enough to satisfy the protestors. The regime may yet survive but I wouldn’t rush to purchase Hosni Futures. Unlike David Cameron, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, Barack Obama hasn’t talked about this year’s elections yet but one imagines, reading

Life on the Nile?

The risks of the status quo are always safer and more appealling than the uncertainties of the new, the unfamiliar and the unpredictable. So it wasn’t a great surprise to discover Vice-President Joe Biden saying last night that, all things considered, he wouldn’t refer to Hosni Mubarak “as a dictator” or outgoing White House press secretary Robert Gibbs insisting that Washington has no interest in “taking sides” in the struggle between the sclerotic Egyptian regime and the protestors. Depressing, perhaps, but not surprising. Like everyone else, the White House is waiting to see what happens today. Everyone agress that Mubarak’s regime is rotten and that the 82-year old dictator (sorry,

Will Mubarak Fall?

A week ago, that would have seemed a foolish question. But after thousands of Egyptians have taken to the streets for two consecutive days of protest, even Hosni Mubarak is beginning to look vulnerable. It has placed the West in a dilemma, in a way that Ben Ali’s fall did not. For years, the fear has been that President Mubarak is the lesser of two evils. Though authoritarian, Mubarak’s Egypt is a pro-Western state willing to live with Israel and combat Islamist terrorism. On the hand, the Muslim Brotherhood opposition, which shares an ideological wellspring with Al Qaeda, is a grave threat to Western security. Unsurprisingly, Hillary Clinton’s first statement

Déjà vu | 21 January 2011

Tony Blair is beguiling the Chilcot Inquiry once again. He was majestic last time – quick witted, sincere and convinced. There was nothing in that benign hearing room to alter, as he might have put it, the ‘calculus of risk’. His ease was sufficient to crack subtle jokes at Gordon Brown’s expense, and most emerged from the hearing believing that Britain had actually been at war with Iran. He is already ploughing those same furrows, albeit with a barely audible note of impatience, irritated that these banal proceedings continue. Iran is the new Iraq, Blair says, and he publicly takes a ‘hard line’ against Tehran, just as his government, in

Aussie rules | 19 January 2011

William Hague has been visiting Australia in the last couple of days, alongside half of the National Security Council. But you would not know it. Except for a few comments in the blogosphere, there has been little write-up of the visit in the newspapers. In many ways this encapsulates one of the government’s key foreign policy dilemmas. Many of the world¹s problems require cooperation with the US, Europe and the BRICs ­ but especially the BRICs, who, for all their flaws and faults, are the fast-growing countries on the planet. If you want to force an end to Iran¹s illegal nuclear enrichment programme, then you need China. If you have

Sherard v The Generals

As wars begin to end, arguments about their conduct begin. Such is the case with the British campaign in Helmand. In a submission to the Foreign Affairs Committee, the former British ambassador in Kabul – and one of the best diplomats of his generation – Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles blasted the Army: “Almost by definition, good soldiers are irrepressibly enthusiastic, unquenchably optimistic, fiercely loyal to their service and to their own units within that service, and not especially imaginative.” But his strongest criticism was reserved for the Army’s strategy of seeing Helmand through the prism of the SDSR – looking to save brigades from being cut, not looking primarily to win

Decentralisation key to Afghan pullout, says David Miliband

It is fashionable to ridicule David Miliband’s search for a post-political career. But in yesterday’s Daily Telegraph the former Foreign Secretary showed that – for all his mistakes in office – his intellect, and judgement on a number of key issues, including how to bring the Afghanistan War to an end, was, and remains, razor-sharp: “Afghanistan’s battles are not just between the Afghan and foreign forces and the Taliban insurgency, but between (and within) Afghanistan’s often warring tribes. When Nato trains the Afghan National Army, it’s good – but not if you are a Pashtun who sees the predominantly Tajik army as the enemy.” The South Shields MP goes on

The China arms embargo should be discussed – though not lifted

Today’s Times splashed on the spat between Britain and EU foreign policy “czar” Catherine Ashton over the embargo barring arms sales to China. The embargo was put in place after the Tianamen Square massacre and has remained in place, largely at US insistence, ever since. But is it the right policy? The policy has not prevented China from becoming a military power — its annual defense budget officially stands at $70 billion, although the Pentagon believes the real figure to be twice as high. China is developing carrier-killing missiles that even NATO does not have, and will soon sell weapons rather than seek to import them. There is, of course,

What to do about Belarus, Europe’s last dictatorship?

For a while it looked like the West had the upper hand. Belarus’ Aleksandr Lukashenko, Europe’s last dictator, seemed to be moving away from Russia and closer to the West. A succession of European ministers went to see him and returned to develop packages of support and assistance with his country. In that new “Great Game” played out on Europe’s periphery it looked like Vladimir Putin’s winning streak was finally coming to en end, after partial success in Georgia and outright victory in Ukraine. Or so European leaders hoped. But any hope of changing Belarus’ position has now been dashed with the violent crackdown in Minsk against pro-democracy activists following

David Miliband’s options

Downing Street may  have dismissed as “complete nonsense” a newspaper report that the coalition was considering inviting David Miliband to become British ambassador to Washington. But the former foreign secretary is one of a few younger British politicians with international standing and while it would be odd to appoint him to a government job – and stranger still for him to accept — the coalition should consider putting him forward for a number of international assignments. Potential jobs include the international community’s “high representative” in Bosnia; as a UN envoy to Yemen; or as the representative of the Friends of Democratic Pakistan. In future, these three posts need to be

Europe keeps vexing the coalition

That the Conservatives and the Lib Dems disagree fundamentally on Europe is a well-known fact. But how much they disagree is rarely put on display as clearly as in today’s European Voice. Andrew Duff, Liberal Democrat MEP and president of the Union of European Federalists, argues that the coalition’s European Union bill – David Lidington’s masterpiece – amounts to “legal pedantry” and will make the UK an “untrustworthy negotiating partner, particularly in matters of treaty amendment, which is such an important driver of European integration.” ‘At home, referenda will unleash the forces of populist nationalism. Facile coalitions of nay-sayers will form to block Britain’s progress in Europe. Regular referenda on

What’s with the Wiki-fuss?

The whole Wikileaks scandal reminds me of a recent conversation I had, at his request, with a member of a foreign diplomatic service. The country he represented is a long-standing British ally and I saw no harm in talking to him as I didn’t say anything which I hadn’t said, or wouldn’t say, in print. Most of the chat was the usual stuff: what are Cameron’s prospects, what does he believe, will the Lib Dems last out five years, who are the real powers in Downing Street, what will happen to Andy Coulson, who are the new MPs worth watching etc. I suspect that what we discussed, along with many

Julian Assange: the new face of anti-Americanism

Like everyone else, I have poured over the latest cache of Wikileaks – the publication of which I find irresponsible and destructive. There are several pieces of information now in the public domain that will cause the US diplomatic embarrassment or worse may even help the regimes in Tehran, Pyongyang and Moscow. Just ask yourself a few questions. Will the West be safer if the Saudi leader cannot trust that a conversation he has with a US envoy will remain secret? Will that help or hinder Iran’s nuclear prpgramme? Will US-German links be improved by the knowledge that US diplomats are sceptical of Angela Merkel’s policies? Will that aid G20