Foreign policy

Tim Pawlenty: Generic Republican

Tim Pawlenty’s Presidential campaign may be stranger than any of his rivals’. For some candidates – Gingrich, Cain – running for the Republican nomination is an outlet for excess egomania. For others – Johnson, Paul – it’s an opportunity to raise issues and a style of conservatism that’s notably unfashionable. Others – Bachmann, Palin, Huntsman – fly a standard for sectional interests within the broader conservative movement. And Romney, of course, is interested in winning. But Pawlenty? What’s he about? Quite. There’s no interesting reason for Pawlenty to run at all. His starting ambition appears to be the “Oh God, I suppose he’ll have to do” candidate. His appeal –

The danger of unbalanced trade with China

The Chinese premier seems to like cars; the Chinese in general seem to like cars. China has bought MG in Britain and Volvo in Sweden, to which it has just added Saab. If the Chinese can make European car companies viable, then what’s the problem? Theoretically nothing: trade will help the Chinese and Europeans alike. But, as Robert Peston made clear in his questioning of Wen Jiabao, trade remains unbalanced. For example, European companies are excluded from public procurement contracts in China. It is also worth noting that China’s purchase of Spanish and Greek bonds over the past year, coupled with their promise to buy from Hungary, have made it

Looking behind the negative aid polls

There are, as the old adage goes, “lies, damned lies and statistics”. I’m beginning to think the same about polls. Take the polls that Britons are not as keen on overseas aid as the Prime Minister. Some of the headlines attached to them are prone to exaggeration. For example, on the back of the poll, the Mail claimed that “one in four people say they will no longer give money to charities such as Oxfam and Save the Children.” People may say that but they don’t seem to mean it. For it turns out that the British public has actually increased its giving to Save the Children by nearly 10 per

Britain makes new senior diplomatic appointments

From the Number 10 website: The Prime Minister is pleased to confirm the following senior appointments: Sir Peter Ricketts, currently the Prime Minister’s National Security Advisor, to become HM Ambassador to France; Sir Jon Cunliffe, currently the Prime Minister’s Advisor on Europe and Global Issues, to become the UK’s Permanent Representative to the European Union in Brussels; Sir Kim Darroch, currently the UK’s Permanent Representative to the EU, to become the Prime Minister’s National Security Adviser; and Sir Peter Westmacott, currently HM Ambassador France, to become HM Ambassador to Washington. These changes will take effect from January 2012. These appointments were approved by the Prime Minister and for the appointment

Apparently, Britain is less stable than a country in danger of collapse

If there is one global index it is best not to be on, it is the Fund for Peace’s annual Failed States Index. It ranks 177 countries using 12 social, economic, and political indicators of pressure on the state. This year, the FSI ranked Somalia as number one for the fourth consecutive year, citing widespread lawlessness, ineffective government, terrorism, conflict, crime, and pirate attacks against commercial vessels as reasons for the country’s billing. Finland, on the other hand, has displaced Norway at the bottom of the index. “Slight fluctuations in demographic and economic indicators, though minimal, lowered Norway’s scores, allowing Finland, with its continued stability, to slip in front of

World Service reprieve the latest step in FCO’s rehabilitation

The BBC World Service has been reprieved. An additional £2.2m will be spent to preserve the Arabic service, in line with some of the wishes of Foreign Affairs Select Committee Chairman Richard Ottaway and Lord Patten, the chairman of the BBC and occasional consigliere to David Cameron. I don’t share the Foreign Office’s sometime view that this is a ‘massive u-turn’, but it is a significant development. Opposition to cuts to the World Service budget came from across the House; but it originated from Tory backbenchers, who were very confident that they would secure a concession. The subsequent climb down suggests that Downing Street is prepared to consult with and

Public opinion on international aid isn’t where Cameron thinks it is

Andrew Mitchell was recently informed that the public is split 50:50 for and against increasing the international aid budget to £12 billion in 2013. A YouGov@Cambridge poll for Politics Home suggests that he should get some better advice. The poll shows that while the public is indeed split fairly evenly on the general principle of aid (41 per cent in favour, 38 per cent against), when it comes to the government’s promise to increase the aid budget by a third, those against outnumber those for by more than 2 to 1. The policy is by no means a Cameroon brainchild. In 1970 the United Nations set the target for government

The Tory euro-wars make a brief return

The Europhilic ghost of Ted Heath is stalking the House of Lords, upsetting the passage of the European Union Bill, the bill containing the coalition’s EU referendum lock. Lord Armstrong of Illminster, who was PPS to Edward Heath between 1970 and 1975, is trying to introduce a ‘sunset clause’ to ensure that the bill lapses at the end of this parliament. (He is working with Labour whip Lord Liddle, although Labour insists that this is not party policy.) Another amendment has been tabled to guarantee that referenda are binding only if turnout exceeds 40 per cent. This could mean that Britain succumbs to legislative creep from Brussels because only major

The coalition’s 2015 problem

The generals and the politicians are at odds with each other. This much has been clear since the run-up to last year’s Defence Review, but it finds a particularly clear expression in the Telegraph’s interview with Lt Gen James Bucknall today. Britain’s most senior commander in Afghanistan may not say, in terms, that we should avoid a timetable for withdrawal from the country — but he skirts awfully close to it. “It is of utmost importance that we stay the course, that we stay as long as it takes to finish our job,” he says, only a fortnight after David Cameron announced that 450 troops will be pulled out of

Gaddafi’s position weakens

As Noman Benotman predicted, Colonel Gaddafi’s relations with his military are disintegrating. Reuters is reporting that 120 loyalist officers have defected and arrived in Rome. Details are scant, but this is a major success for Britain and France’s attempt to effect regime change without intensifying their military deployment. There will be doubts as to how long the resilient dictator can survive without loyal military leadership. Gaddafi now has to choose how to respond to this treachery – rough justice may be tempting, but that might deepen the rebelliousness of his officers, increasing the likelihood of a coup. NATO will be trying to exploit this stroke of luck, encouraging further defections.

The spectre of jihad in Libya

While Britain agonised over deploying attack helicopters to Libya, the conflict seems to have escalated of its own accord. Noman Benotman, a former member of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, has described the current dispositions for the Times this morning (£). He has learned that many of Gaddafi’s military leaders are planning a coup to save their skins; Colonel Gaddafi is reluctant to arrest their nascent treachery for fear of triggering open rebellion. Other officers are following the example of civilian administrators like Moussa Koussa, feeling that now is the time to cut and run. News of Gaddafi’s withering power will please NATO, even if it is exaggerated. However, Benotman’s

Egypt’s revolution – six months on

I’m back in Cairo to find out where the revolution of 25 January has got to. Nearly six months after Hosni Mubarak’s downfall, the transition from authoritarianism is well under way. There is one immediate difference from my last visit: the absence of army check-points. Police officers in new white suits stand on street corners but the heavy military presence from before has gone. The Cairo police, who were absent after the revolution, have returned in new white uniforms. However, the military – or SCAF, as it styles itself – is very much still in charge, dictating how the democratic process will continue. I remain of the view I articulated

Yemen implodes

Sometimes you wait and wait for an event, and nothing ever happens. Pakistan is always said to be teetering on the brink of collapse but never quite edges over the precipice. The same used to be the case with Yemen. In fact, Coffee House predicted that Yemen would implode last year, but Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh managed to hold the country together in the face of terrorism, irredentist movements, insurgency and, recently, pro-democracy protesters demanding his resignation.   Now, however, the wily leader may finally have run out of road. Heavy clashes have erupted in the capital Sanaa, a day after Saleh again refused to sign a Gulf-brokered power-transition.

A good day for Cameron

Today is one of those days when David Cameron gets full political benefit from being Prime Minister. He is basking in the president of the United States’ reflected glory. The papers this morning are full of him playing table tennis with Barack Obama and tonight’s news bulletins will lead on their joint press conference at lunchtime. As Cameron stands next to Obama, he’ll look both a statesman and a centrist. It’ll be hard for Labour to attack Cameron as an extremist on deficit reduction when he keeps stressing how he and Obama agree on a sensible level and pace to get their budgets heading back into balance. There are, obviously,

Choppers add to the Libyan fog of war

There was much ado about choppers in Westminster earlier today. Yesterday, French Defence Minister Gerard Longuet told reporters that Britain and France were to deploy attack helicopters to Libya; and that the British had instigated this move. The fog of war then descended. Labour’s defence spokesman Jim Murphy called on the British government to explain why the conflict is escalating. Armed Forces Minister Nick Harvey contradicted Longuet’s account; and a source at the Ministry of Defence told me that this was the first he’d heard of helicopters being deployed to Libya in that role. The implication was that the French were trying to force the issue. Then again, a separate

An especially businesslike relationship

The ash cloud nearly claimed its first victim last night: Barack Obama had to leave Ireland early in order to fly to Britain. The Palace’s insistence on protocol has been upset and the President’s entourage has been advised not to risk the tap water; other than that, all is well. However, the visit has set sceptical tongues wagging. Some diplomats wonder why the President is here. Afghanistan, the Middle East, joint national security and the world economy are on the agenda, but there is no unifying theme to discussions. Some ideologues fear that the eternal bond between Britain and America is relaxing into a union of convenience. On the other

Cathy Ashton beats UK ministers to Bengazi

EU foreign policy Tsar Catherine Ashton has come under a lot of criticism, much of it unfair and/or put forward by those who want the EU to supplant the member-states. In this piece, I have tried to defend her. I argue that her realistic take on the EU’s role is in the UK’s interest: the last thing London needs is someone who ignores member-states to build an independent foreign policy. And she has managed to get Europe’s SAHEL policy in a better shape, worked closely with William Hague and Guido Westerwelle to coax Serbia into negotiations with Kosovo and helped to solve, at least for the moment, a crisis in

Will Britain leave the EU in 2025?

Britain is going to stay in the EU for the next ten years at least. Of that I’m sure. But after that, when David Cameron’s retired, William Hague has taken to writing books, George Osborne’s had his chance and the 2010 intake run the party, the Tories are going to be more openly hostile to the EU. Labour will too; it has a larger reservoir of pro-EU sentiment among its ranks, but one that is shallower than it was. Focusing on the Tories, it is worth noting that nearly all of the names being bandied about as future Tory leaders have a visceral dislike of the EU. By and large

Alex Massie

No, Obama Did Not Throw Israel “Under the Bus”

President Obama’s speech yesterday confirmed that the main thrust of American foreign policy in the middle east may now fairly be characterised as Obama men and Bush measures. In large part it could have been written by David Frum. Admittedly, as Frum says there’s a difference between broad statements of principle and the actual, more difficult, policy decisions that might put flesh on those bones. Despite this, the conservative reaction to the speech appears utterly unhinged. As any member of the sanity-based community could appreciate, there was little in the address that significantly departed from long-standing American policy. Indeed, I think Jeffrey Goldberg is right to argue that the speech:

David Cameron and the John McCain School of Statesmanship

In the midst of an otherwise interesting and thoughtful piece arguing that David Cameron is “retreating” from his “radical” start, Ben Brogan lobs in this astonishing paragraph: Even on issues on which he has not found such obvious consensus, Mr Cameron has shown himself willing to take risks when politics would dictate prudence. Take Libya, where he led the international debate by being among the first to urge some kind of UN-approved action against Muammar Gaddafi. Events since have largely vindicated those who cautioned against the peril of a drawn-out, costly and unsustainable entanglement. But his critics recognised the confident way the Prime Minister defied American doubts and navigated Arab