Greece

Sunday

James Forsyth

German rhetoric suggests that they are preparing to try and kick Greece out of the Euro

Greece has voted No, and resoundingly so. But the reaction from Berlin tonight does not suggest that Germany is prepared to have any further negotiations with the Syriza government. The vice chancellor, and head of the SPD, Sigmar Gabriel has declared that “With the rejection of the eurozone’s rules of the game, which has been expressed in this majority ‘no’ vote, negotiations on further multibillion euro programs are scarcely conceivable.” Given that the SDP is more doveish than the CDU and the CSU on the Greek question, this sounds like Germany has given up on trying to strike a deal and now wants Greece to leave the Euro. Indeed, one

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Greek voters say Oxi, what will the Eurozone do now?

With half the votes counted, the No side in the Greek referendum is leading by 61% to 39%. With this lead for No at this stage in the count, it seems certain that it has won. The question now is how the Eurozone will react to this result. Before the vote, the Eurozone powers made clear that they wanted Greece to vote Yes. The Germans, French and Italians all repeatedly warned the Greeks that this was effectively a vote on whether to stay in the Euro or Not. Jean-Claude Juncker even hinted that this was a referendum on whether Greece should stay in the EU or not. So, what will

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The Greeks have voted ‘no’. Now, the real crisis will begin

In a landslide vote, the Greeks have said ‘no’ to the latest EU bailout deal – and, perhaps, to the Euro itself. Alexis Tsipras will stay as Prime Minister, and treat the result as a mandate to negotiate a better deal. But that’s not how the Germans see it: their economic affairs minister, Sigmar Gabriel, has just told the Tagesspiegel newspaper that the Greek ‘no’ has just ‘torn down the last bridges on which Greece and Europe could have moved towards a compromise’ and furthermore: ‘With the rejection of the rules of the eurozone … negotiations about a programme worth billions are barely conceivable.’ So events may now well spiral out of anyone’s control. Here’s what we’re facing… 1)

Ed West Ed West

Globalists v localists: the new reality of 21st century politics

Tonight it looks like the Oxi’s have it, and Greece’s fraught relationship with the Franks has reached a new phase, with possible Grexit coming; that’s assuming the exit polls are correct and that this whole torturous episode doesn’t continue. Whether Grexit takes place or not, though, the whole episode has fundamentally damaged the European Union by undermining the very idea it was built on – solidarity. If you ever get Irish people on the subject of the Great Famine, the essential point they always make is that had the potato blight hit Yorkshire, no one would have starved because London would have come to its aid. Yorkshire is the example

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Polls suggest narrow ‘No’ vote in Greek referendum

If the final result in the Greek referendum is as close as the polls (not exit polls, so treat with caution) below suggest, then as well as the trauma and drama of Grexit, the country will have to cope with deep divisions. The same would be the case if there is a narrow win for ‘Yes’. In either case, that just over half of the country voted one way, and just a few fewer people went the other way naturally means there will be a lot of voters who are bitterly disappointed. Whatever the result, the future for Greece is going to be difficult and many people will suffer a

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

‘No’ side confident as polls close in Greek referendum

The polls have just closed in the Greek referendum, and the ‘No’ side seems, currently, to be rather more confident of a victory. The Guardian reports a briefing from the EU Commission that those in favour of rejecting the anti-austerity deal from Greece’s creditors could be 8-10 points ahead, while others claim ‘No’ had a late surge. Syriza members have also been talking about what would happen in the event of a ‘No’ vote, with Yanis Varoufakis saying Greece could do a deal with its lenders in 24 hours. If the country has voted ‘No’, then Grexit is expected, unless the country stays suspended in negotiations for longer. Not only

Saturday

James Forsyth

Which way will Greece vote?

This time tomorrow, we’ll have had the first projections from the Greek referendum. We will have an idea as to whether the country has said Oxi or Nai. At the moment, the polls make the referendum too close to call. Whatever the result, there’ll be no quick deal between Greece and its creditors. But if the Greeks vote Oxi, then the country could be forced out of the Euro by the ECB cutting off assistance to its banks. If that were to happen, then the Eurozone would have to move to integrate very quickly to prevent Portugal, Italy, Spain and even France being pushed towards the Euro exit the next

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Does the EU want the Greeks to vote for Golden Dawn?

If Greece does vote Yes, and Mr Tsipras has to go, who is left to run the country? The voters have tried all the main parties, only to find them broken by the demands of the eurozone. The only category left is the extreme right, so there would be a sort of desperate logic in electing the repulsive Golden Dawn party. Otherwise, there really doesn’t seem any point in having any more votes at all. Greek citizens — or rather subjects — might as well invite the satraps of the troika formally to take up the reins of power, sit back, and see how they manage. If they do not like

Friday

Isabel Hardman

Is Cameron ready for his European opportunity?

Could Greek voters back austerity measures to keep their country in the eurozone this weekend? Today’s papers cover a poll by GPO which put ‘Yes’ on 47.1 per cent and No on 43.2 per cent. This result would see resignations at the top of Syriza, but effectively no Grexit. If Alexis Tsipras’ gamble of saying he’ll resign if the country does indeed vote ‘Yes’ to the cuts demanded by Greece’s creditors pays off, and voters plump for Syriza’s preferred option of ‘No’, then David Cameron will find himself with what James describes in this week’s Spectator as a ‘glorious opportunity to craft a looser form of EU membership’ because the

Thursday

Peter Jones

Solon vs Jean-Claude Juncker

The combination of terror and outrage with which Brussels has greeted Greek Prime Minister Tsipras’s referendum tells us everything we ever needed to know about the EU, i.e. stuff the people — what have they to do with us? The farmer-hero Dikaiopolis in Aristophanes’ comedy Acharnians (425 BC) felt much as modern Greeks must do when the Athenian Assembly refused to do anything about the war against Sparta. All the executives cared about was getting the best seats, he complains: ‘For peace, they don’t give a toss. Oh Athens, Athens, what are you coming to?… I’m longing for peace. All I want is to get back to my little village — ah,

The Spectator

Barometer | 2 July 2015

Bank job Should we buy shares in companies which print banknotes in expectation of one getting to print millions of drachma notes? — In May, according to the ECB, there were a total of 17.6bn euro notes in circulation. Given that Greece accounts for approximately 2.5% of the GDP of the eurozone, 441m of these were Greek, and might need replacing with drachma notes in the event the country leaves the euro. — However, there is already a good business in printing replacement euro notes. In May, 2.76bn notes were taken out of circulation and 2.88bn new ones were put into circulation. — Therefore, if Greece were to leave the

Taki

High life | 2 July 2015

Tempus sure fugit, and how. Twenty years ago, on Saturday 1 July 1995, monarchs from around the world descended on London for the wedding of Greek Crown Prince Pavlos to Marie-Chantal, daughter of the duty-free magnate Bob Miller. I remember it well, especially the hangover. Never have I seen so many royals under one roof. The Greeks had treated King Constantine, father of the groom, very badly, managing to convince the press, and in turn the people, that the first man to resist the military takeover and stage a countercoup against the colonels was in fact one of them. Leave it to the Hellenes to say black is white and

Charles Moore Charles Moore

The Spectator’s notes | 2 July 2015

‘The Greek people,’ the Financial Times leading article said on Monday, ‘would be well advised to listen closely to the words of Ms Merkel. The plebiscite will be a vote for the euro or the drachma, no less.’ It is interesting how menacing powerful ‘moderate’ institutions can become when popular feeling challenges them. In the eurozone theology to which the FT subscribes, its statement above cannot be true. It is not possible (see last week’s Notes) for a member state to leave the euro, any more than it is for Wales to renounce sterling. Eurozone membership, once achieved, is a condition of EU membership. So the Greeks cannot vote to

The Spectator

Portrait of the week | 2 July 2015

Home At least 30 British people were among 38 shot dead at a beach resort at Sousse in Tunisia by Seifeddine Rezgui, aged 23, a Tunisian acting for the Islamic State and said to have been trained in Libya. Soldiers, emergency services and 1,000 police took part in a two-day exercise in London simulating a terrorist attack. A statutory obligation became binding on public bodies, including schools, to prevent people being drawn towards terrorism. Nicky Morgan, the Education Secretary, said that schools should look out for ‘homophobia’ as a symptom of Islamist jihadism. James Brokenshire, the Immigration Minister, said the National Barrier Asset (lengths of nine-foot fencing) would be deployed

Harry Mount

Greece’s crisis turns to tragedy

 Athens On Sunday night, a protest in favour of staying in the euro gathered in Syntagma Square, in front of the Greek parliament building. They were quickly confronted by a group of anti-EU protestors. What could have been an ugly stand-off was avoided by an unseasonal downpour. The 28ºC heat plunged to 19ºC and the young protestors — organised by social media — fled home, as did the riot police soon afterwards. Things are in a terrible way here, but not quite terrible enough for a Greek to hang about in the rain. As one Athenian journalist told me on the roof of the Amalia Hotel, while we watched the

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

This Greek catastrophe isn’t Lagarde’s fault but her career is starting to look like toast

The Greek drama took a turn few of us expected last week, when the world thought compromise was imminent. What happens after Sunday’s referendum is anyone’s guess — but recrimination is already flying, much of it aimed at IMF managing director Christine Lagarde. Having inherited the Greek headache from her predecessor Dominique Strauss-Kahn after his resignation in 2011, she has always talked tough — but now stands accused of setting aside IMF rules, as well as long-established blueprints for debt relief and the views of many of the Fund’s own economists, in order to stay aligned with the European Commission and the European Central Bank in the ‘troika’ of bailout

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Greek referendum going ahead as Tsipras again urges No vote

After much speculation that the Greek referendum was about to be cancelled, Alexis Tsipras has just appeared on Greek television to confirm that it is going ahead and to urge people to vote No. He said that those saying a No vote would mean Greece leaving the Euro were telling lies. He argued instead, that a No would strengthen his negotiating hand and allow him to achieve a ‘social deal’ which would be easier on the poor and pensioners. Everything now turns on the result of the referendum. If it is a Yes vote, the Syriza-led government will almost certainly resign and one can see how the country’s creditors could

Charles Moore Charles Moore

Why is the FT ordering Greece to do what Germany wants?

‘The Greek people,’ the Financial Times leading article said on Monday, ‘would be well advised to listen closely to the words of Ms Merkel. The plebiscite will be a vote for the euro or the drachma, no less.’ It is interesting how menacing powerful ‘moderate’ institutions can become when popular feeling challenges them. In the eurozone theology to which the FT subscribes, its statement above cannot be true. It is not possible (see last week’s Notes) for a member state to leave the euro, any more than it is for Wales to renounce sterling. Eurozone membership, once achieved, is a condition of EU membership. So the Greeks cannot vote to

Matthew Lynn Matthew Lynn

The sooner Greece leaves the euro, the better

Ten years ago, the Greek minister Yainnos Papantoniou came to London to give a talk at the London School of Economic on the country’s first four years as a member of the euro. A skilled, pro European technocrat, Papantoniou had, more than anyone else, steered his country through dogged German resistance into the single currency. Papantoniou boasted that a history of weak growth and chaotic government had been swept aside, and that Greece was now the equal of Germany and France. What lay ahead, he argued was ‘a new dynamic phase for the Greek economy, based on knowledge and modern structures’. A ‘bolstering of national self-confidence’ would be the natural

Tuesday

Ed West

Greeks v Franks – why culture still matters

During the period of the crusades Greeks would refer to western Europeans by the generic term ‘Frank’, derived from the name of the leading barbarian tribe of the west. The word still lives on as a name for white people in Urdu and Hindi – Firangi – as well as Thai and Vietnamese, for whom US soldiers were called Farang (or ‘black Farang’ for African-American troops). According to Norman Stone’s history of Turkey, the word for syphilis in Turkish is likewise derived from Frank (it was also called ‘the French disease’ in 15th century Italy). ‘Frank’ is a useful term that really needs to be brought back to illustrate the