Inflation

It takes quite a determined Cassandra to see the rise in Consumer Prices Index (CPI) from 0.6 per cent in August to one per cent in September as some kind of crisis, not that that will stop the holdouts of the Remain campaign from trying to do so. When CPI fell below one per cent at the end of 2014, you might remember, there were dark warnings about the threat of deflation – with the horrors that would imply for borrowers, who would see the real value of their debts increase. Now, some are trying to present a rise to one per cent as bad news, with former Monetary Policy

When I wrote my last Daily Telegraph column critical of Btecs, an exam now taken by about a quarter of English university entrants, a friend of mine in the world of university admissions told me to wait for the reaction of Pearson Plc, which owns Btec. While A-levels and GCSEs are rigorously examined and discussed, Pearson get away with releasing very little data about Btec and plough a lot of money into marketing their exam. And they don’t very much like it being criticised. Rod Bristow, the president of Pearson UK, has written to today’s Daily Telegraph suggesting that I was wrong to suggest that Btecs have gone through serious inflation – and, ergo,

Annual CPI inflation rose by more than forecasters expected to reach 0.5 per cent in March, up from 0.3 per cent in February, figures released today show. The rise was due to a jump in the cost of air fares, which were affected by the timing of Easter. Growth in fuel prices slowed and consumers benefitted supermarket price wars that saw the cost of food fall by 0.6 per cent between February and March. Core inflation, which strips out energy, alcohol, tobacco and food, rose to 1.5 per cent from 1.3 per cent – further evidence the UK’s period of low inflation may, slowly, be coming to an end.

The unemployment rate fell to 5.1 per cent in the three months to November, putting it at the lowest level since 2006 – and back to its average over the six years before the crisis. Back to what the Bank of England regards as the “equilibrium” rate. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/DUFV6/index.html”] The other side of the coin is that pay growth is down too. Excluding bonuses it’s fallen to a sluggish 1.9 per cent year-on-year, around half its pre-crisis rate. Workers’ spending power is still growing – but that’s driven by low inflation. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/u0fNr/index.html”] At the equilibrium unemployment rate, the Bank of England thinks a further fall in joblessness could drive up inflation

When David Cameron said this week that he is worried his children would not be able to afford to buy their own homes, he struck on one of the greatest economic problems of his premiership. The old British promise is that if you work hard and make the right decisions, you can advance in life and own your own home. This is the ladder that most aspire to climb. But for an entire generation, even the hope of home ownership is slipping out of view. A huge number of young Britons cannot hope to have the kind of life their parents enjoyed. The Prime Minister must know he is on dangerous

Britain stayed in deflation in October, with the Consumer Prices Index falling by 0.1 per cent over the year. So far this year inflation has averaged just 0.02 per cent – the longest run of low inflation since the 1930s. Citi says inflation is likely to turn positive again next month as the effects of last’s years oil price nosedive falls out of the 12-month change – but with sluggish global growth, the cost of goods falling and inflation in the cost of services running at just 2.2 per cent, it looks like low inflation will be with us for a long time. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/y0IrQ/index.html”]

Inflation slumped back to zero in the year to August, down from a rise of 0.1 per cent in July, figures from the Office for National Statistics show, making seven months of little or no inflation. The costs of food, energy and imported goods have been falling, pulling inflation away from the two percent target. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/XXn28/index.html”] Even stripping out some more volatile components—energy, food and tobacco—‘core’ inflation fell to one per cent, easing pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Tomorrow’s jobs figures are expected to show strong private sector pay growth, but jobs growth seems to be picking up in higher-pay and higher-productivity sectors, decreasing inflationary pressures as more

Home Andrew Burnham described calls from Yvette Cooper, a rival candidate for the Labour leadership, for him to withdraw from the contest as ‘quite strange’. The problem was how to prevent Jeremy Corbyn, a left-winger, from being elected by the alternative vote system by 610,000 party members and registered supporters. Gordon Brown, the former disastrous Labour prime minister, contributed by making a 50-minute speech in a small room at the Royal Festival Hall, during which he paced up and down continuously for an estimated 1 mile 1 furlong 5 chains and did not mention Mr Corbyn’s name. Kezia Dugdale, a Member of the Scottish Parliament, was elected leader of the

Home The government postponed a Commons vote on relaxing the Hunting Act in England and Wales after the Scottish National Party said it would oppose the changes. Scottish police admitted that a crashed car off the M9, reported to them on a Sunday, was not examined until the Wednesday, when one of the two passengers inside it was still alive. She died three days later. A case of H7N7 bird flu was found at a poultry farm near Preston, Lancashire, where 170,000 chickens were slaughtered. British people were being urged by the Foreign Office to leave Tunisia because ‘a further terrorist attack is highly likely’. Up to 5,000 were flown

Home Talha Asmal, aged 17, from Dewsbury, West Yorkshire, died in a suicide bomb attack on forces near an oil refinery near Baiji in Iraq, having assumed the name Abu Yusuf al-Britani. A man from High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire, Thomas Evans, 25, who had changed his name to Abdul Hakim, was killed in Kenya while fighting for al-Shabab. Three sisters from Bradford were thought to have travelled to Syria with their nine children after going on a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia. Britain had had to move intelligence agents, the Sunday Times reported, because Russia and China had deciphered documents made public by Edward Snowden, the CIA employee who has taken refuge in

Reports of deflation’s death are exaggerated – sure, the CPI index has risen from -0.1pc in April to +0.1pc in May. But many important things are still getting cheaper: food, for example, costs 1.7pc less than this time last year. And the prices of larger-ticket items, the so-called ‘consumer durables,’ fell an average 2.6pc in May – the sharpest year-on-year drop since Labour’s 2009 emergency VAT cut. But as the above graph shows, Citi reckons (pdf) that inflation will not bounce back to where it was before. Sluggish pay and a strong pound mean we’re in for a relatively long period of stable prices. Its chief economist, Michael Saunders, sums it up thusly:- ‘A fairly

Home The annual rate of inflation turned negative in April, for the first time since 1960, with deflation of 0.1 per cent as measured by the Consumer Prices Index, so that a basket of goods and services that cost £100 in April 2014 would have cost £99.90 in April 2015. But, measured by the Retail Prices Index, inflation continued at a rate of 0.9 per cent. Marks & Spencer reported its first rise in annual profits for four years. Police trying to find the gang that broke into safe-deposit boxes in Hatton Garden last month arrested nine men. A botanist claimed unconvincingly that Shakespeare was depicted in the frontispiece of

Home Launching the Conservative party manifesto, David Cameron, the party leader, told voters he wanted to ‘turn the good news in our economy into a good life for you and your family’. The Tories promised: to eliminate the deficit by the end of the parliament; to provide 30 hours of free child care a week for working parents of three- and four-year-olds; to grant a right for housing association tenants to buy their properties; to increase the inheritance tax threshold for married couples from £650,000 to £1 million (paid for by nobbling tax allowances on pension contributions for those earning £150,000); to raise the threshold of the 40p rate to £50,000 by

So much for Ed Miliband’s ‘cost of living crisis’. UK inflation, as measured by the CPI index, has just fallen to zero (pdf). Even this figure masks better news: food prices are actually falling, by 3.4 per cent over the last 12 months. The cost of motor fuel is down by 17 per cent, mainly thanks to collapsing oil prices. Crucially the price of such essentials should keep falling – as the below forecast from Citi (pdf) shows:- Now, should we worry about ‘deflation’? There are some economists who say this is a real problem because if things get cheaper than punters put off purchases. There is zero evidence of this happening in the UK. Indeed, according to Citi (pdf) …the opposite