International politics

Britain will contribute again to the IMF

Britain will contribute $15 billion (£10 billion) more to the International Monetary Fund. This means that there will be no need for another parliamentary vote on UK funding of the IMF as it is within the limits set by parliament in its last vote on the matter. This news has emerged in a joint statement by Australia, South Korea, Singapore and the UK; the UK’s $15 billion contribution is in proportion to this country’s voting share in the organisation. In terms of the politics of this decision, it is interesting that the Australian Liberals, the Tories’ sister party Down Under, are going to back the increase in the Australian contribution despite being

A man surrounded — and some assumptions exposed

There was an element of bafflement in the early BBC coverage this morning of the welcome news that police have identified and surrounded the suspected killer of seven people, including Jewish children, in Toulouse. To some people’s surprise, the BBC correspondent remarked in the early reports, the suspect turned out to be a Muslim, Mohammed Merah. So the entire tone of the Corporation’s coverage of the killings turns out to have been misplaced. Ever since the dreadful news that a gunman had attacked a Jewish school in Toulouse after killing three French soldiers, the overriding assumption on the part of the Corporation was that, unless the killer was merely unhinged,

Chinese whispers | 21 March 2012

China’s rumour mill, hyperactive even in the calmest of times, has been in overdrive in the past two days. Monday evening and early Tuesday in Beijing, the country’s Twitter-like microblogs were abuzz with speculation there could have been a military coup, possibly linked with the recent demotion of Communist official Bo Xilai. There hasn’t been a coup, nor is there likely to be. Crazy rumours swirl in China every day (though not always of this level of seriousness). It’s said that authorities are now banning the word ‘coup’ on microblogs.   The bigger issue for China is that its policy of controlling information, while trying to catapult itself into the

How do you solve a problem like Baroness Ashton?

Baroness Ashton has managed a return to diplomatic form by comparing the murder yesterday of three children and a Rabbi at a Jewish school in Toulouse with ‘what is happening in Gaza.’ Plenty of people have already deplored her comments. But they present an opportunity to address one of the underlying and too infrequently asked questions of our time: if you do not think Ashton is a very good politician, what can you do about it? Ordinarily if a politician says or does something you do not like we, the electorate, are at some point given the opportunity to vote them out. There used to be considerable pride in this

McCain’s on the warpath (again)

Senator John McCain was on the radio again this morning, urging us to intervene on behalf of Syria’s rebels. ‘It’s not a fair fight,’ he said, as if that were a good reason to wade in. McCain, a former prisoner of war, is to humanitarian intervention what Mother Teresa was to helping the sick. He never misses a chance to promote a good scrap in the name of freedom and democracy. He cheered on western involvement in the wars in Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. In McCain’s worldview, there is no conflict or international problem which cannot be solved by the application of American military power. When running for president in 2008, he

Defecting to what?

The wires are ablaze with the news that Syria’s deputy oil minister, Abdo Hussameldin, has switched sides to the country’s opposition. His is, after all, the most high-ranking defection so far, and he doesn’t have any kind words for his former employers. As he puts it in a video that has been posted on YouTube, the current regime are ‘not friends of the Syrian people but partners in the killing of the Syrian people’. We shouldn’t, however, get too excited just yet. This could be a significant moment, not least because it suggests that Assad’s hold over his own government is beginning to weaken. But it’s also worth remembering that

Putin’s dilemma

If you enjoy scoring tiny but likely returns on your wagers, then how about putting some money down on Vladimir Putin to win today’s presidential election in Russia? William Hill are currently offering odds of 1/100, if you’re interested. Like John Simpson, writing for this week’s Spectator, they regard this as ‘Russia’s Coronation Day’. A near cert. The rest of Simpson’s article is worth reading, but it’s his conclusion that we’ll pull out here. Putin, he says, will ‘walk it in the first round’ today, but his medium-term future looks far less secure: ‘Russia is changing. It can’t simply be told to shut up any more. Soon — not within

Europe is being strangled by the Franco-German alliance

David Cameron’s complaints at last night’s EU meeting about the lack of a growth agenda have, in part, been addressed by the new draft conclusions. Cameron — who was supported by the Dutch, Italians and Spanish — seems to have secured promises on the completion of the single market, deregulation and the services directive in the summit’s draft conclusions. This isn’t going to turn around the European economy. But it is a step in the right direction and a small, but possibly significant, victory for the PM.   I understand from sources in Brussels that there has been frustration with the extent to which the conclusions presented last night simply

What the Taliban want

How go those talks with the Taliban in Doha? Quietly, that’s how — although there’s a report in yesterday’s The Hindu that could reveal some of what’s being said, and is worth the time reading because of it. According to the paper’s diplomatic sources, the Taliban want Mullah Mohammed Omar installed as ‘supreme religious and political leader’ of Afghanistan. And, yes, that is the Mullah Omar who sheltered Al Qaeda when he actually was in charge of Afghanistan, and whose policy agenda included the death penalty for those converting to another religion, as well as the general subjugation of women, gay people, individuality, etc. He’s currently wanted to the tune

The Syria delusion

Things certainly seem to be coming to a head in Syria, with today’s news that Assad’s forces have launched a ground assault on Homs, forcing the rebels to withdraw, and that the UN Human Rights Council has passed a resolution condemning the brutality. John R. Bradley, writing for the Spectator last month, argued that this is not the ‘simple story of freedom fighters opposing tyranny’ that many believe it to be – that ‘the situation is clearly much more complex’. In this week’s magazine, out today, Rod Liddle further explores that complexity: What proportion of the Syrian population is fully in support of the continued uprising against the country’s authoritarian

Australia’s Labor party is infighting its way to an electoral hiding

This morning a friend from London emailed to find out what the hell has happened to the Australian Labor Party? He was responding to the news overnight that, in a ballot for Labor’s 102-strong legislative caucus, Julia Gillard (the most unpopular prime minister in Australian history) smashed Kevin Rudd (the most popular prime minister in Australian history, whom she knifed late one night in June 2010) by a record 71 to 31 votes. ‘How can this be?’ my friend asked. Well, Rudd’s fall from grace has little to do with Gillard and everything to do with Rudd. The 54-year-old Mandarin-speaking former diplomat has two weaknesses: he has never been much

From the archives: journalists under fire

This week brought the sad news of the deaths of two journalists — Marie Colvin and Remi Ochlik — in Syria. As a testament to their bravery, here’s a first-hand insight into the dangers of war reporting written for The Spectator in 1991 by Con Coughlin, who was covering the Gulf War for the Sunday Telegraph. Trying to sleep in a gas mask, Con Coughlin, The Spectator, 26 January 1991 Con Coughlin in Saudi Arabia explains how journalists survive Saddam’s Scuds Thanks to Saddam Hussein and his Scud missile batteries, our lives are dictated by the wail of air raid sirens. For the thousand or so journalists who have congregated

Hague’s ‘Cold War’ warning

William Hague has gazed into his Middle Eastern crystal ball and doesn’t like what he sees. In an interview in today’s Telegraph, he says of Iran: ‘It is a crisis coming down the tracks, because they are clearly continuing their nuclear weapons programme… If they obtain nuclear weapons capability, then I think other nations across the Middle East will want to develop nuclear weapons. And so, the most serious round of nuclear proliferation since nuclear weapons were invented would have begun with all the destabilising effects in the Middle East. And the threat of a new cold war in the Middle East without necessarily all the safety mechanisms… That would

Gorby: Putin’s like Thatcher

The Times has a fascinating interview (£) with former Soviet leader, Nobel Laureate and two-time Man of the Year Mikhail Gorbachev. He strikes an optimistic tone about the future of democracy in Russia, praising the ‘Moscow Spring’ protesters and saying ‘This is the right moment to start creating as part of this new situation a strong democratic party.’ But perhaps the most eye-catching comes when he compares Vladimir Putin with Margaret Thatcher: ‘Mr Gorbachev recalled Mrs Thatcher, Prime Minister at the time, telling him that she was leaving a summit in Paris early to deal with the challenge to her leadership from within the Conservative Party. He said: “I felt

Making a call on Qatada

The Prime Minister, we are told, has been trying to reach the King of Jordan to see if some kind of arrangement can be made so that Abu Qatada can be deported legally and that no forms of torture-gained evidence will used against him in a Jordanian court. This seems like a sensible thing to do. But it is important that the government balances its counter-terrorism policy with its foreign policy.   Here is what I mean. Jordan is a friend of Britain, but the King is under tremendous pressure to reform. There are daily demonstrations against his rule and the protests are gathering pace. His reforms, meanwhile, have been

Fraser Nelson

Our enemy’s enemy

It’s unusual for The Guardian and The Spectator to agree on anything, but Seamus Milne and our own John R Bradley are sceptical about these Syrian rebels whom we’re being invited to support. Bradley was alone in predicting the Egyptian revolution, and argues in today’s magazine that the conventional wisdom is once again wrong. Who’s backing the rebels? The Qataris, keen to depose the last secular regime in the Arab world. And the Saudis and Israelis, whose hatred of Iran eclipses all other considerations: this isn’t about the Syrian people, but about depriving the ayatollahs of an ally. Some in the West also take the view that the enemy’s enemy

Brits sceptical of Syria intervention

Britain’s response to Syria so far has been uncertain and cautious. A YouGov poll today suggests that the public is keen for this hands-off approach to continue. When presented several possible offences, the public responds with almost universal disapproval. A measly 9 per cent would support sending in British and allied troops to overthrow President al-Assad. Only 16 per cent would support providing arms to the rebels and 18 per cent support sending in troops to protect civilians. The only modicum of support is for the proposed no-fly zone. But, although a majority would agree with the zone, less than half believe it is necessary right now, with 26 per cent

Stopping Assad

The situation in Syria grows worse by the minute. President Assad seems to have taken the UN Security Council’s deadlock as carte blanche to launch an all-out attack on Homs. Russia looks like she wants to mediate, while Turkey is preparing a new initiative with countries who oppose the Syrian government, a sort of anti-Assad group. Meanwhile, the Gulf States have expelled all Syrian ambassadors.   The chances of a ceasefire are low, as are the prospects of a military intervention. Russia has an interest in persuading Assad to abdicate, but can Assad be persuaded? Syria still has friends in Iraq and Iran, where the governments are supporting the regime

Where has the pro-EU camp gone?

Did you see that amazing article by a group of pro-EU businesspeople? What about that clever ad paid for by ‘Better To Be In’, the new pro-EU lobby group? Nope, me neither. The reason we haven’t seen anything like that is because the pro-European camp in Britain is in total disarray. Like a beaten army, it is withdrawing in a state of confusion, while some diehards stage energetic but un-strategic counterattacks against the advancing Eurosceptic forces. A letter from pro-EU businessmen was, frankly, unimpressive: the signatories were hardly a who’s who of Britain’s business community, and even included some former officials. Hardly a show of strength. But yesterday’s letter from

Putin’s end

This weekend, thousands of people defied the cold and the control in Moscow to show their dislike for Vladimir Putin and what Russia has become under his leadership: corrupt, energy-reliant, centralised, and uncompetitive. It is now a country that must win externally because it can’t help but lose internally. ‘Post-BRIC’, as a new report has it. My guess is that Putin will ‘win’ the presidential election, and will ensure that a sufficient number of counter-protests make it look as if he has more support than he actually has. That’s exactly the kind of ‘virtual politics’ that Moscow excels at and which Ukraine expert Andrew Wilson has described so well in