International politics

Tobin tactics

The biggest bone of contention between the UK and its EU allies these days is the ‘Tobin tax’, the idea of levying a tax on financial transactions. To the UK this is folly. Unless it is levied globally, a tax will force business to move elsewhere. And there is a greater chance of Silvio Berlusconi being elected ECB chief than the Tobin tax being levied globally.   Based on the experiences of Sweden in the 1990s, the tax will achieve none of what its proponents believe it will — and at a considerable cost to Britain’s and Europe’s economy, as companies look to list elsewhere to avoid it. As Ryan

How can Cameron protect our interests in Europe in the short term?

Chatting to people in Brussels last week, I couldn’t help feeling that David Cameron’s EU problem is one of timing. The PM will probably be able to piece together a repatriation package that includes measures such as a withdrawal from the over-implemented Working Time Directive and a reduction in the EU budget. But none of this is likely to be enough for his party. Indeed, I suspect the budget won’t be finalised until two minutes to midnight during the Lithuanian EU Presidency in 2013. Add to this the Tobin Tax, where there seems to be little leeway for the British government. Barosso, Merkel and Sarkozy are determined to introduce it,

Paying for justice

To British ministers, the role that the International Criminal Court played over Libya was key – it made clear that Colonel Gaddafi’s actions were unacceptable and would be subject to international law. Tory MP Dominic Raab even wrote a piece in The Times about the need for Libyans to rely on the ICC in The Hague, rather than seek retribution and revenge against Gaddafi and his loyalists. And it wasn’t only the British government. German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi should be tried by the ICC: ‘Gaddafi should have a trial according to the law, something he never did with his opponents,’ Merkel said when

Mubarakism after Mubarak

The future of Egypt has been hanging in the balance since Hosni Mubarak was toppled. Now there is real cause for concern, as scores of protesters clash with state security forces. The problem, above all, is military overreach. Stuck in a 1960s view of itself, and keen to preserve their money, status and power, the military has been thwarting the process of change. Since Mubarak’s fall they have continued behaving how they always have and worse — arresting protesters, muttering about US-led conspiracies, demanding extra-constitutional rights and clamping down on dissent. Worst of all, the West has been all to willing to take them at their word. Especially the Obama

Sorry, Mr Gul, but Turkey won’t be joining the EU any time soon

It’s not going to happen. That’s what everyone says who knows anything about the subject that we’re going to be hearing quite a bit about this week: Turkey’s membership of the EU.  I’ve heard it from someone who works for William Hague, from a political editor, from a diplomat. Which makes this week’s state visit by the Turkish president, Abdullah Gul, on his three-day state visit to Britain seem pretty well beside the point.  The British government is right behind Turkey’s bid for EU membership, no country more so. David Cameron and William Hague have if anything been even more effusive in their support than Tony Blair and Jack Straw

Saif Gaddafi captured — but what now?

Remember when Saif Gaddafi was the Anointed One of those who wanted a freer, more liberal Libya? Now, he’s at the mercy of militiamen in the city of Zintan, having been captured today. It leaves Abdullah al-Senussi, the former intelligence chief, as the most infamous member of the old regime still on the run. The details of the capture are still hazy, like so much else during Libya’s revolution. What’s striking is that, unlike his father, Saif Gaddafi appears to have been unharmed by the process. Reuters are sure they spoke with him earlier today (although the man wouldn’t confirm his identity), and the only wounds he was carrying were,

In defence of technocrats

Is Mario Monti’s administration in Italy democratic? Is Greece’s new government? To some, especially in the blogosphere, it is the exact opposite: a technocratic and undemocratic government foisted upon Italy and Greece by (circle as appropriate) Angela Merkel/Nicolas Sarkozy, the Bilderberg Group/EUSSR, etc. But nobody forced Silvio Berlusconi to resign. Nobody sacked him. Under pressure by the markets, he chose to resign. He could have stayed and nobody denied that he had a constitutional right to do so. It would have cost Italy dear, but he could have stayed. In addition, Monti was appointed to the Senate by the Italian president who himself is elected by Parliament in a joint

The spectre of populism

Across Europe, the bien pensant are worried. They fear that the Eurocrisis could lead to the rise of populism — whatever that means — and even extremism. The spectre of the 1930s stalks a lot of discussions, as the FT’s Gideon Rachman found out at a lunch with a hedge fund manager who thought the break-up of the Euro would lead to “the next Great Depression and a resurgence of Nazism”. But is there real cause for fear or is this a matter of people projecting a particular history onto the future? Economic dislocation has in the past led to populism but not uniformly, or at least not in numbers

Berlusconi: latest victim of Europe’s reverse Arab Spring

Berlusconi has finally resigned – and so continues what seems to be the Arab Spring in reverse (a Gnirps Bara). In the Arab world, people rose up against undemocratic juntas and democracy ruled. In Europe, undemocratic juntas are springing up in Frankfurt opera houses and toppling democracy. All Sarkozy had to do was help the rebels who wanted to remove the targeted leader. The cover story of this week’s magazine has a piece by yours truly about the Frankfurt Group of eight people who are calling the shots. Only two members are directly elected: Sarko and Merkel (well, three if you count the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, which we shouldn’t

The new German Question

The Eurocrisis has put Germany in a twofold position that it abhors. First, it has forced Germany into a much closer relationship with France than is comfortable. For German policymakers, the great thing about the post-enlargement EU, of 27 countries, was that they and France could not rule supreme — they needed to bring other states on board. Germany prefers it this way, as it dilutes France’s dirigiste instincts. But recent events have reshaped Europe’s decision-making system, recreating the pre-1973 model in which Paris and Berlin reigned. The second thing Berlin abhors is to dictate things to others. The catastrophes of the 20th Century forced Germany to remake itself. It

Going soft

One of the greatest threats to British security is not whether the government opts for Tornadoes over Harriers, but whether we have credible, militarily-capable allies. So the fact that so many European countries have lost the will to fight — cutting defence budgets while the popular backing for ‘hard,’ as opposed to ‘soft,’ power declines — is a problem. To address this, Europeans need first and foremost to redevelop a narrative of power. In a new pamphlet, former MoD official Nick Witney tries to lay out the required narrative. He argues that Europe’s future security and prosperity now depends on success in a global competition. Europe’s belief that “soft power”

Crisis a la Milanese

If Italy’s a country on the brink, it doesn’t show it. At least not in Milan. Along the city’s rainswept streets, thousand of designer-clad people hit the shops this weekend, unperturbed at the prospect of the government’s likely collapse and the risk of a financial meltdown. At a small deli called Pack overpriced but delicious pieces of Bresaola and Parmegiano are sold in green-and-gold Harrods-like wrapping. La Rinascente, the city’s upmarket department store, is packed with high-rolling shoppers and the nightclub under the main Armani store is heaving with models and their male accoutrements. Here life remains dolce. Of course Milan is not Italy – it is the country’s commercial

Trouble in Tibet

Tenzin Wangmo, a 20-year-old Tibetan nun, woke up to clear skies on October 17th. At around noon, she gathered the things she needed and walked down the valley to the bridge below her nunnery. Once there, she found a suitable spot, perhaps thumbed the prayer beads strung around her neck one final time, and began to shout. “Let His Holiness the Dalai Lama return to Tibet!”, she cried. “We want religious freedom!” Then she set herself on fire. She walked up and down for about eight minutes, a witness says, before collapsing. Ten days before, two teenage former monks set themselves alight in the same region, Aba county in ethnically

From the archives: A nuclear Iran

This week there were rumblings that war with Iran may be closer than most people thought. In a piece for the Spectator in 2004, Andrew Gilligan argued that even with a nuclear bomb, Iran would not be a threat to us: The case for not attacking Iran, Andrew Gilligan, 27 November 2004 Do the last few days remind you of anything, by any chance? Presidential heavy breathing about a ‘rogue’ Middle Eastern state; a supporting chorus of exiles with dramatic new claims; and a senior member of the US government bearing intelligence which turns out to be more spin than spine-chilling. Less than a month after the presidential election, the

Palestine presses on in the UN

While the Palestinian bid for membership at the United Nations moved closer to rejection, it turned out that Palestine has a veto over which UN agencies the United States funds. For after Palestine gained admission to UNESCO, the US administration followed through on its threats and cut the organisation’s funding. As UNESCO is based on assessed contributions from member-states, others cannot make up the short-fall. The Palestinian Authority is now considering making applications to the WHO, WIPO and the International Telecommunications Union – technocratic bodies that actually play a large in role. For example, the WHO is crucial for dealing with global pandemics like SARS and Swine Flue. So while

A collision course with Iran?

Are we on the verge of war with Iran? The Guardian’s frontpage today suggests we might well be. Here’s a taster of the article: “Britain’s armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern about Tehran’s nuclear enrichment programme, the Guardian has learned. The Ministry of Defence believes the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities. British officials say that if Washington presses ahead it will seek, and receive, UK military help for any mission, despite some deep reservations within the coalition government. In anticipation of a potential attack, British military planners are examining

Do Muslims vote Islamic?

The electoral success of Tunisia’s Islamist Ennahda party and the likelihood that the Muslim Brotherhood will do well in Egypt’s forthcoming elections has heightened fears in many quarters. Will Islamic parties always dominate such contests in the Middle East? The electoral success of the Islamic Salvation Front in Algeria, the Justice and Development Party in Turkey and Hamas in Palestine suggest the answer is yes. But looking at a broader data set – that is, the entire range of elections in which Islamic parties have taken part – reveals a different picture. Islamic parties have stood for elections in more than 90 elections in more than 20 countries. But as

Merkel and Sarkozy try to hold the euro together

Right about now, Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel are having George Papandreou for dinner. There have been all sorts of rumours today about what Sarkozy and Merkel will demand from him. Thankfully, they seem to have abandoned plans to tell him to cancel the referendum. But they still seem keen to dictate the question and the timing to him. How that will go down with the Greek demos remains to be seen. One thing is clear, though: the euro is now destroying the whole European project. The European Union’s claim to be a force for peace, stability and democracy in Europe is rapidly disappearing into the Athens smog. The wholesale

Right to reply: The aid debate we need to have

As Fraser pointed out yesterday, the Spectator’s debate on international aid is tonight (all CoffeeHousers welcome, tickets available here). To further set the stage for that debate, here’s a response to Fraser’s original post from the folk at Christian Aid: I’m glad that, in his post yesterday, the Spectator editor said he is in favour of aid, and that some of it is best done by governments. And, like him, I’m also in favour of aid spending being at least protected from cuts. On these two points we agree. That’s about the extent of our common ground. The British government made a commitment to devote 0.7 per cent of economic

A Damoclean sword hovers above Papandreou

This is not Greek tragedy, it is a farce. Prime Minister George Papandreou’s idea to hold a referendum on the Greek deal has done the exact opposite of what he must have intended. Instead of giving him a new mandate, it seems it will take the existing one away from him. Several MPs and PASOK officials have called for his resignation or for the formation of a National Unity Government. Some have even resigned, reducing the government’s majority in parliament. European reaction has arranged from studied politesse to outrage. Ireland’s Europe minister has called the referendum idea a “grenade”. Privately, European politicians are seething. The Greek PM must know he