International politics

Saturday

David Blackburn

The X-Factor

Bob Woodwood could write a cookbook and it would be a bestseller, but Obama’s Wars, his latest book, will wreak quiet havoc beyond bookshops because Afghanistan already lours over Obama’s presidency. 9 years into the conflict and the limits of victory have been re-defined in the Taliban’s favour. The spat between the White Hosue and Stanley McCrystal has been replaced by further controversy with Petraeus over the withdrawal strategy. Woodward’s book is impartial, but he has given an acidic interview to the Sunday Telegraph where he implies that, when it comes to war, Obama doesn’t have the ‘x-factor’. The inherent contradiction between America’s current full engagement and proclaimed imminent withdrawal

Saturday

David Blackburn

Delhi’s disaster indicts the Indian state

Spectacle counts in the emerging East. China confirmed its coming dominance with the spectacular Beijing Olympics. On the evidence of the Commonwealth Games village, India has the squalid air of an impoverished country ineptly governed. William Dalrymple, author on all things Indian, wrote a measured commentary for the Times (£) yesterday: “The Commonwealth Games was meant to be India’s coming-out party, a demonstration to the world that the old days of colonial domination and subsequent relegation to Third World status were finally over. Sadly, the Games have shown that the Old India is very much with us. This is a country, after all, where — alongside all the triumphs of

Thursday

The Spectator

WEB EXCLUSIVE: Risky Business

The Spectator and KPMG hosted a conference recently that explored possible investment opportunities in today’s fragile geo-political climate. Panellists included Sir Malcolm Rifkind, John Ruffer, Lord Guthrie, Frank Gardner and Rory Stewart. CoffeeHousers can read James Forsyth’s magazine review of the debate here.

Tuesday

David Blackburn

‘It’s a bit of a riddle’

Perhaps Donald Rumsfeld was right: the Coalition should not have gone for the ‘hard slog’ in Afghanistan (or Iraq). Hindsight suggests that Rumsfeld had foresight in his desire that a shock and awe campaign be followed by a light presence and eventual withdrawal – the blood baths that have ensued from intense deployment might have been avoided.  I hope the two times Secretary for Defence Secrte addresses those issues in his memoir, Known and Unknown, due to be published in January three months after Bush’s. Another thing I wouldn’t mind clearing up, is what the hell he meant by this:

David Blackburn

A tale of two statesmen and a wary industry

The only readable part of Tony Blair’s Lawrentian romp of a memoir, is the epilogue. He explains why the state must be trimmed in the future and how globalisation is affecting global polities, and all expressed with languid charm and an air of self-deprecation which he has acquired on the road to riches. No wonder he’s the toast of Washington, the UN and Beijing – he’s the model of the Modern English Gentleman, a real pukka sahib. Gordon Brown, meanwhile, has travelled to the UN to attend a meeting on tackling poverty. After a decade of enduring Bono at his most self-righteous, poverty is not yet history. Aid agencies and

Friday

David Blackburn

Andrew Mitchell: the answer to global terrorism

Al Shabaab and al Qeada are brothers in arms – Somalia is a hothouse for terror. Jonathan Evans, director general of MI5, has openly expressed his view that it is ‘just a matter of time’ until Somalia and the Yemen export terrorism to Britain’s streets. That striking statement contains one oversight: they do already. Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Christmas Day bomber, was trained in the Yemen and two of the 7/7 bombers were Somali. How to eradicate this threat? The legacies of Iraq and financial retrenchment have made armed intervention an absolute last resort. Counter-terrorism is essential, but well targeted aid is the easiest remedy for chaos. In a speech

Monday

David Blackburn

The coalition’s inept EU referendum lock

At least this government is honest. ‘There will be,’ Europe Minister David Lidington says, ‘no referendum on the transfer of competence or power from the UK to the EU during this Parliament’. The government will ensure that there are no more EU power transfer treaties; but, as Douglas Carswell, Tim Montgomerie, and Bill Cash all note, the Lisbon Treaty is self-ratifying. The EU has already picked the coalition’s lock and garnered new powers for itself – notably the extension of the EU arrest warrant. The EU could be an economic superblock with the muscle to influence the globe strategically and culturally. But its current political operation is unnecessary and deplorably

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

What it is to be British

What is it about the British and flag waving? I ask after watching last night’s superlative BBC Proms, a brilliant end to the best season for years. On HD and wired to the hifi, it was all the better. As the end approached, my Czech mother-in-law asked: if this is Britain’s flagship musical event, why are there so many foreign flags? It’s hard to explain. Britain has a mutating relationship with flags and nationality. Twenty years ago, the Union flag was used in England matches, then devolution came and the St George’s cross made an emphatic comeback. I’m sure I saw a Cornish flag last night, and at least one

Saturday

Wednesday

David Blackburn

Burning the Koran

The US constitution cannot stop Pastor Terry Jones from burning 100 Korans to mark the 9th anniversary of 11 September, and neither should it – the right to free speech is absolute when within the law. But free speech comes with responsibilities. Just as it is unwise to build, with provocative intent, a mosque near the site of Ground Zero, so too for a Christian minister to burn the Koran as a publicity stunt. Such mindlessness is grossly offensive to the peace abiding majority, and it also furthers endanger US and Allied troops abroad and the population at home by inciting contemptible extremism. Common sense and the tenets of Christian faith aside, Jones should

Tuesday

Tom Switzer

Gillard’s fractious premiership

‘The definition of an Independent Member of Parliament, viz., one that could not be depended upon.’ – Former British prime minister, the Earl of Derby to Queen Victoria. In the August 21 federal election down under, the Labor government of Prime Minister Julia Gillard copped a stunning rebuke from the Australian people. Consider this: Tony Abbott’s centre-right Liberal-National Coalition won nearly half a million more votes than the Australian Labor Party. It secured more seats than the ALP (73 to 72 in the 150-seat House of Representatives). And the Labor administration became the first first-term government since 1931 to lose a parliamentary majority. So how does Labor claim a mandate

Sunday

Patrick Nolan

What you need to know ahead of the Spending Review: the Irish experience

This is the latest of our posts with Reform looking ahead to the Spending Review. The first six posts were on health, education, the coalition’s first hundred days, welfare, the Civil Service, and the New Zealand and Canadian experiences. Ireland As Colm McCarthy, Chair of Irish Special Group on Public Service Numbers and Expenditure, noted at a recent Reform conference the macroeconomic downturn in Ireland has been more severe than in almost any other European country: — The budget deficit, excluding the Exchequer cost of the banking collapse, went from near zero in 2007 to 11.5 per cent of GDP in the current year, despite fiscal cutbacks which began in

Saturday

Patrick Nolan

What you need to know ahead of the Spending Review: the Canadian experience

This is the latest of our posts with Reform looking ahead to the Spending Review. The first six posts were on health, education, the coalition’s first hundred days, welfare, the Civil Service, and the New Zealand experience. Canada In a forward to Reform’s alternative 2010 Budget, Rt Hon Paul Martin, Canadian Finance Minister from 1993 to 2002 and Prime Minister from 2003 to 2006, noted that when a new Liberal government was elected in Canada at the end of November 1993 the deficit and debt-to-GDP ratios were, with the sole exception of Italy, by far the worst of the G7. In 1998, just 4 years later, Canada’s deficit was no

Friday

Patrick Nolan

What you need to know ahead of the Spending Review: the New Zealand experience

This is the latest of our posts with Reform looking ahead to the Spending Review. The first five posts were on health, education, the coalition’s first hundred days, welfare and the Civil Service. International examples of public finance rescue missions Other countries can provide important lessons on what does, and what does not, work in devising a plan to bring government spending down. Several countries have undertaken major programmes of reform that have set out to restore fiscal credibility and improve the quality of their public services. Examples include New Zealand, Canada and Ireland. Reform has drawn on the experiences of senior figures from these countries, and lessons from the

Wednesday

James Forsyth

General Conway versus the Commander-in-Chief

President Obama’s folly in setting a fixed date to start troop withdrawals from Afghanistan has been highlighted by the US Marine General James Conway. He told reporters on Tuesday that Obama’s July 2011 start date for withdrawal was “probably giving our enemy sustenance….In fact, we’ve intercepted communications that say, ‘Hey, you know, we only have to hold out for so long.’” As Mark Mardell noted on the Today programme, after having relieved General McChrystal of the Afghan command for his criticism of the civilian leadership Obama is keen to avoid another clash with a member of the senior brass. So there will be no White House reprimand for Conway. But

Saturday

David Blackburn

Too close to call Down Under

Australia has spoken, but it will take some time to determine what they’ve said. ABC is reporting that Australia is headed for its first hung parliament since 1940. Exit polls suggested that Julia Gillard’s Labor party would win the most seats; but it now looks as if Tony Abbott’s Coalition has obtained 73 seats, one more than Labor; there are also 4 independents and 1 Green MP to throw into the mix. Conservative Home is following the election in detail. Weak and indecisive government may follow, but the Coalition has the political momentum. 6 months ago Kevin Rudd was, in racing parlance, a dead-cert for re-election. Mounting enmity and severe

Thursday

James Forsyth

The worrying opposition to the ‘Ground Zero Mosque’

I’m a neo-conservative, a hawk in the war against Islamist extremism, which is why I’m so worried by the opposition to the building of a mosque near Ground Zero. A new poll shows that 61 percent of Americans oppose its construction and Howard Dean, the tribune of the Democratic wing of the Democratic party, and Harry Reid, the Democratic Senate Majority Leader, have joined many leading Republicans in arguing that the mosque should not be built there, several blocks from Ground Zero.   If the war on terror becomes a war on Islam, it is a war that we lose: George W. Bush may have had his faults but this

Monday

James Forsyth

Strategic differences

When President Obama asked General Petraeus to take over the Afghan command after General McChrystal’s Rolling Stone implosion, there was much speculation that the two men would clash over the date for America to begin withdrawing troops. Obama had set down July 2011 as the starting point but Petraeus was almost certainly going to want more time than that. In Petraeus’s Meet the Press interview on Sunday, Petraeus made clear he might argue that withdrawal cannot begin that quickly ‘MR. GREGORY:  I just want to clarify this.  Did — could you reach that point and say, “I know that the process is supposed to begin, but my assessment as the

Friday

James Forsyth

Debating gay marriage

There’s an intellectually enriching debate going on at the moment between Ross Douthat and Andrew Sullivan over gay marriage. It was all started by an eloquent and heartfelt column by Ross arguing that the idea that “lifelong heterosexual monogamy at its best can offer something distinctive and remarkable — a microcosm of civilization, and an organic connection between human generations — that makes it worthy of distinctive recognition and support” and that is incompatible with gay marriage. Andrew Sullivan, who along with Jonathan Rauch, deserves a huge amount of credit for moving the argument for gay marriage into the mainstream, wrote a powerful set of rebuttals. Personally, I subscribe to

David Blackburn

Battling for hearts and minds

This week marked the 38th anniversary of the American ground withdrawal from Vietnam. At the time The Spectator ran the following leader, condemning the Pentagon’s often inhuman conduct of the war, which it deemed counter-productive. Reading the piece, it becomes plain that the conduct of war has changed beyond recognition. Modern strategists have dispensed with napalm and have embraced aid and development instead. Whatever Julian Assange might intimate, Afghanistan is emphatically not a re-run of Vietnam.     ‘Thinking About War The more our think tank men think about war, the worse our wars become. Sophistication means worse. Men thinking in tanks brood upon killing trees. We know it is silly: