Ireland

OK Enda, What Are You Going To Do Now?

They’re still counting the results of the Irish election but it’s clear that, as expected, the story of the day is Fianna Fail’s collapse. Enda Kenny, who’s not half as youthful as he looks (he’s the Father of the House and has been a TD since 1975), will be Taoiseach but the election of 75 or so Fine Gael TD’s should not be taken as much of an endorsement of Fine Gael’s policies, far less as support for fiscal austerity or, frankly, much else. Fianna Fail has mislaid half a million votes since they won 78 seats on 41% of the vote in 2007. Fianna Fail’s vote has collapsed to

Fine Gael’s unenviable, uncertain victory

Oh look, the ruling Fianna Fail party is set for defeat in the Irish election. Unsurprising, for sure, but the scale of their drubbing will still be something to behold. An exit poll conducted by RTE has them in third place on only 15.1 percent of the vote – which, as Sunder Katwala points out over at Next Left, is some way down from both their traditional 40+ per cent support and the 41.6 per cent that they achieved in 2007. The same exit poll has the centre right Fine Gael party in the lead (on 36.1 per cent), their best performance for 28 years, although not enough for an

Ireland and the Kubler-Ross Model of Grief

Irish Policeman Ronan McNamara and presiding electoral officer Hugh O’Donnell carry the ballot box from the ferry on Inishfree Island, off the Donegal coast of Ireland. It will not surprise you that Myles na Gopaleen had it right: The majority of the members of the Irish parliament are professional politicians, in the sense that otherwise they would not be given jobs minding mice at the crossroads. Sadly Myles does not tell us if there would be comely maidens dancing at the crossroads too but there you go. Today’s Irish election is a queer thing indeed. Many observers have commented on a surprising lack of fury given the scale of the

A Message from the Irish Political Party

Courtesy of RTE’s The Eleventh Hour. As the lads say, “Mistakes have been made. But in the right hands the mistakes of the past can be a valuable asset in excusing the mistakes of the future.” Thanks to the many friends and readers who pointed this out. More from Ireland to come. And sorry for light-posting here. This is due to a) idleness, b) the need to read a book I am reviewing c) watching Colonel Gaddafi and d) organising a trip to Dublin.

Fianna Fail: Winning the Anarchist Vote (Though Not Much Else)

Who knew Sligo Town was such a cradle for logic and anarchy? If only more usually-pointless TV vox pops were like this. The Economist observed this week that regret is one of the prevailing moods in Ireland these days. Perhaps so, but there’s resignation too. The election will prove momentarily cathartic but the deal struck with the ECB and IMF is unlikely to be reshaped significantly and, hence, the election is being held in a strange, make-believe land in which all agree to pretend it matters hugely despite a widespread suspicion that the game is rigged and has, in fact, already been decided. It’s not quite just for show and

First Egypt Falls, Is Ireland Next?

Today’s entertainment in the Irish election is generously provided by Ned O’Keeffe who, thoughtfully, warns that the Irish army may be poised to take over the country. The outgoing Cork TD (Fianna Fail naturally) may be on to something. Perhaps there is a pro-coup constituency that, sure, wouldn’t be thinking a military regime would be the worst thing. Couldn’t do as much harm as the last lot, you know. Anyway: According to a report published in today’s Evening Echo, Mr O’Keeffe said “The situation has become so bad that an Army coup is a real possibility.” Blaming Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan for hastening the possibility

Gerry Adams Redefines Terrorism

Gerry Adams, appearing on the Irish radio station Newstalk this afternoon, denounced the proposed Universal Social Charge (ie, tax) as being little more or less than “an act of gross terrorism”. He also complained that Micheal Martin’s suggestion that Adams’s past membership of the IRA might prove a problem for some voters was a “slur”. I suppose this is true since a slur is an insinuation or allegation that is likely to insult someone or damage their reputation. It does not, you will note, mean that the insinuation or allegation is untrue.

Irish to block EU integration

In continental lore, it is Britain that is often seen as the greatest impediment to EU integration. The government’s EU Bill initially caused horror in the rest of Europe. Would Britain have to vote for each treaty change, even those needed to enlarge the Union? Before the text of the bill became clear, every self-respecting eurocrat spat the name ‘Britain’ over their lait russe. Even now, they are not best pleased. But in future it may not be Britain, but Ireland that will block any further EU integration. For Ireland is turning a lot more eurosceptic. The role of the euro in Ireland’s decline remains a subject of debate. In

Michael Lewis & the Wizards of Dublin

Michael Lewis’s Vanity Fair piece on the Irish collapse is less entertaining than his trips to Greece and Iceland. Perhaps that’s because it’s closer to home. It’s still good, however, and worth your time even if much of it will be familiar. On the other hand, this passage is worth a raised eyebrow or two: A week later the department [of Finance] hired investment bankers from Merrill Lynch to advise it. Some might say that if you were asking Merrill Lynch for financial advice in 2008 you were already beyond hope, but that is not entirely fair. The bank analyst who had been most prescient and interesting about the Irish

Shocker! The Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead has no regard for the Constitution

Most entertaining, this Gerry Adams business. He may deny that he is now the Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead but if he ain’t then he hasn’t resigned as an MP. And if he is a paid officer of the Crown he would seem to be playing fast and loose with the Irish constitution. This may not surprise you or anyone else. However the constitution plainly states: 40.2.2: 1: Titles of nobility shall not be conferred by the State. 2. No title of nobility or of honour may be accepted by any citizen except with the prior approval of the Government. Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead is

GUBU Politics for the 21st Century

At least in retrospect the Haughey era of GUBU governance had a certain measure of baroque absurdity which provided some amount of perverse entertainment. Mind you, that also followed a period of reckless mismanagement of the public finances. I think it was sometimes said on Wall Street that any time there came a cataclysm you could guarantee that Merrill Lynch would be there. So too with the Irish Republic: Fianna Fail is always there. But not, perhaps, for much longer. The present shambles must be the final unravelling of a once mighty party. Fianna Fail will elect a new leader – for whatever that bauble is worth these days –

The Irish government folds

Yesterday, Brian Cowen resigned; today his government has imploded. The Green Party, which was bolstering Cowen’s ruling coalition (if such a phrase is applicable in this instance), have left the government. The Fianna Fail-led coalition is now two votes short of a majority, and therefore the finance bill may not pass in its current form. If that is so, Ireland may return to the precipice on which it found itself a couple of months ago, and its principal creditors and trading partners with it. But there is more to this than balance sheets. In his statement, the leader of the Greens said that the people had lost confidence in the political process. It’s

Rome is Even More Rotten than Dublin

As you know, I’m not much of a Fianna Fail fan. But if there’s any Irish institution that outperforms the ghastliness of the Soldiers of Destiny it’s the Catholic Church. Here’s the latest reminder of that: A letter to Ireland’s Roman Catholic bishops has been revealed by the broadcaster RTE that contradicts the Vatican’s frequent claim it has never instructed clergy to withhold evidence or suspicion of child abuse from police. The 1997 letter documents rejection of a 1996 Irish church initiative to help police identify paedophile priests. Signed by the late Archbishop Luciano Storero, Pope John Paul II’s envoy to Ireland, it instructs bishops that their new policy of

The Bell Tolls for Biffo

Back in the rare ould times you could always rely upon Fianna Fail’s instinct for self-preservation to kick-in and heaves against the party leadership were a reliably entertaining fixture of Irish political life. The remarkable aspect of this present crisis was that that, for a while at least, it looked as though Brian Cowen might somehow survive to lead his party to its looming Waterloo. Where, in the name of the father and all that’s holy, was the Fianna Fail of old? So fair play to Micheal Martin, the foreign secretary, for doing his bit to wield the knife. It’s hard to imagine he’s the answer but he’s less obviously

Stable house prices won’t happen by themselves

Grant Shapps has impressed in the housing brief, arguing that house prices rising faster than wages is not a good thing (with which Policy Exchange’s report, Making Housing Affordable, agreed). He has probably been encouraged by the fact that some recent polls have shown even a majority of owners want prices to stop rising. Perhaps having your kids live with you until they are 40 just isn’t a popular option? More so, rising house prices only benefit those who downsize (now rare) or own multiple properties; and in the wider economy it mostly discourages productive investment and encourages borrowing – hardly good things.   But while Shapps’s aim is laudable,

Johnson’s economic education

When he took on being shadow Chancellor, Alan Johnson said that he would need to get hold of an economics primer. Judging by his comments in yesterday’s debate about the bi-lateral loan to Ireland, he hasn’t got that far into it. Johnson told the House, ‘The euro had nothing to do with the [Irish] property boom and bust’. This is a bizarre statement. If Ireland had been able to set its own interest rates, they would have been far higher and thus dampened down the property boom. As Johnson’s close friend and the former Chancellor Alistair Darling said later in the debate when asked if he agreed with the Shadow

A Horse Outside

Clearly, this song should top the Irish Christmas charts. The ghosts of Yeats, Kavanagh and all the other lads have nothing on the Rubberbandits. The Plain People of Ireland have a horse outside and they’re going to ride it. Warning: this song contains a considerable amount of huge quantity of profanity. Warning too: if you’re Irish or have spent heaps of time in Ireland you may also find it very funny.

Setting the scene for Osborne’s speech

George Osborne will make a brief statement to the house this afternoon, responding to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s revised growth forecasts. Reuters reports: ‘As expected, the Office for Budget Responsibility raised its 2010 growth forecast to 1.8 percent from its 1.2 percent June forecast to factor in a surprisingly strong performance in the middle of the year.’ The upgrade fuels Osborne’s positive narrative: the coalition pulled Britain from the abyss and international confidence in Britain’s economy is growing. These forecasts vindicate the government’s ‘cut with care’ strategy. Concrete savings are now being made and they enable the Chancellor to announce that public sector net borrowing will fall. Reuters again: