Ireland

Wednesday

Alex Massie

Michael Lewis & the Wizards of Dublin

Michael Lewis’s Vanity Fair piece on the Irish collapse is less entertaining than his trips to Greece and Iceland. Perhaps that’s because it’s closer to home. It’s still good, however, and worth your time even if much of it will be familiar. On the other hand, this passage is worth a raised eyebrow or two: A week later the department [of Finance] hired investment bankers from Merrill Lynch to advise it. Some might say that if you were asking Merrill Lynch for financial advice in 2008 you were already beyond hope, but that is not entirely fair. The bank analyst who had been most prescient and interesting about the Irish

Wednesday

Alex Massie

Shocker! The Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead has no regard for the Constitution

Most entertaining, this Gerry Adams business. He may deny that he is now the Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead but if he ain’t then he hasn’t resigned as an MP. And if he is a paid officer of the Crown he would seem to be playing fast and loose with the Irish constitution. This may not surprise you or anyone else. However the constitution plainly states: 40.2.2: 1: Titles of nobility shall not be conferred by the State. 2. No title of nobility or of honour may be accepted by any citizen except with the prior approval of the Government. Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead is

Tuesday

Alex Massie

GUBU Politics for the 21st Century

At least in retrospect the Haughey era of GUBU governance had a certain measure of baroque absurdity which provided some amount of perverse entertainment. Mind you, that also followed a period of reckless mismanagement of the public finances. I think it was sometimes said on Wall Street that any time there came a cataclysm you could guarantee that Merrill Lynch would be there. So too with the Irish Republic: Fianna Fail is always there. But not, perhaps, for much longer. The present shambles must be the final unravelling of a once mighty party. Fianna Fail will elect a new leader – for whatever that bauble is worth these days –

Sunday

David Blackburn

The Irish government folds

Yesterday, Brian Cowen resigned; today his government has imploded. The Green Party, which was bolstering Cowen’s ruling coalition (if such a phrase is applicable in this instance), have left the government. The Fianna Fail-led coalition is now two votes short of a majority, and therefore the finance bill may not pass in its current form. If that is so, Ireland may return to the precipice on which it found itself a couple of months ago, and its principal creditors and trading partners with it. But there is more to this than balance sheets. In his statement, the leader of the Greens said that the people had lost confidence in the political process. It’s

Saturday

Wednesday

Alex Massie

Rome is Even More Rotten than Dublin

As you know, I’m not much of a Fianna Fail fan. But if there’s any Irish institution that outperforms the ghastliness of the Soldiers of Destiny it’s the Catholic Church. Here’s the latest reminder of that: A letter to Ireland’s Roman Catholic bishops has been revealed by the broadcaster RTE that contradicts the Vatican’s frequent claim it has never instructed clergy to withhold evidence or suspicion of child abuse from police. The 1997 letter documents rejection of a 1996 Irish church initiative to help police identify paedophile priests. Signed by the late Archbishop Luciano Storero, Pope John Paul II’s envoy to Ireland, it instructs bishops that their new policy of

Sunday

Alex Massie

The Bell Tolls for Biffo

Back in the rare ould times you could always rely upon Fianna Fail’s instinct for self-preservation to kick-in and heaves against the party leadership were a reliably entertaining fixture of Irish political life. The remarkable aspect of this present crisis was that that, for a while at least, it looked as though Brian Cowen might somehow survive to lead his party to its looming Waterloo. Where, in the name of the father and all that’s holy, was the Fianna Fail of old? So fair play to Micheal Martin, the foreign secretary, for doing his bit to wield the knife. It’s hard to imagine he’s the answer but he’s less obviously

Wednesday

Alex Morton

Stable house prices won’t happen by themselves

Grant Shapps has impressed in the housing brief, arguing that house prices rising faster than wages is not a good thing (with which Policy Exchange’s report, Making Housing Affordable, agreed). He has probably been encouraged by the fact that some recent polls have shown even a majority of owners want prices to stop rising. Perhaps having your kids live with you until they are 40 just isn’t a popular option? More so, rising house prices only benefit those who downsize (now rare) or own multiple properties; and in the wider economy it mostly discourages productive investment and encourages borrowing – hardly good things.   But while Shapps’s aim is laudable,

Thursday

James Forsyth

Johnson’s economic education

When he took on being shadow Chancellor, Alan Johnson said that he would need to get hold of an economics primer. Judging by his comments in yesterday’s debate about the bi-lateral loan to Ireland, he hasn’t got that far into it. Johnson told the House, ‘The euro had nothing to do with the [Irish] property boom and bust’. This is a bizarre statement. If Ireland had been able to set its own interest rates, they would have been far higher and thus dampened down the property boom. As Johnson’s close friend and the former Chancellor Alistair Darling said later in the debate when asked if he agreed with the Shadow

Friday

Alex Massie

A Horse Outside

Clearly, this song should top the Irish Christmas charts. The ghosts of Yeats, Kavanagh and all the other lads have nothing on the Rubberbandits. The Plain People of Ireland have a horse outside and they’re going to ride it. Warning: this song contains a considerable amount of huge quantity of profanity. Warning too: if you’re Irish or have spent heaps of time in Ireland you may also find it very funny.

Wednesday

Monday

David Blackburn

Setting the scene for Osborne’s speech

George Osborne will make a brief statement to the house this afternoon, responding to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s revised growth forecasts. Reuters reports: ‘As expected, the Office for Budget Responsibility raised its 2010 growth forecast to 1.8 percent from its 1.2 percent June forecast to factor in a surprisingly strong performance in the middle of the year.’ The upgrade fuels Osborne’s positive narrative: the coalition pulled Britain from the abyss and international confidence in Britain’s economy is growing. These forecasts vindicate the government’s ‘cut with care’ strategy. Concrete savings are now being made and they enable the Chancellor to announce that public sector net borrowing will fall. Reuters again:

Saturday

The Spectator

Portrait of the week | 27 November 2010

Britain is to lend Ireland up to £9 billion. Home Britain is to lend Ireland up to £9 billion. ‘Ireland is a friend in need,’ George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer told the House of Commons, ‘and it is in our national interest that we should be prepared to help them at this difficult time.’ British loans could be made via three routes: bilaterally through the European Union; through an agreement under the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism; and through the International Monetary Fund. Theresa May, the Home Secretary, said that the number of workers coming from outside the European Union would be capped at 43,000, about 5,600 fewer than last year’s

Daniel Korski

A more German Europe?

Timothy Garton Ash asked an important question in the Guardian recenty – is Europe becoming more German? Or, to put it more accurately, does the EU have to become more German to survive? “If the eurozone falls apart, it will be because Germany did not do enough to save it. If the eurozone is saved, it will be thanks to Germany. This is the greatest challenge to German statecraft since the country was peacefully united 20 years ago.” “Yet here is another horn of Germany’s dilemma. For half a century, German politicians have repeated, like a mantra, Thomas Mann’s call for “a European Germany, not a German Europe”. It was in

Hugo Rifkind Hugo Rifkind

I no longer understand what ‘Ireland’ means

The defining commentary of this on-going financial crisis, for me, came from Gerald Hill of the Midlands, in a letter to the Times in March 2009. ‘Sir,’ he wrote, ‘I can now understand the term “quantitative easing” but realise I no longer understand the meaning of the word “money”.’ I’m with Gerald. Take the IMF and EU bailout to Ireland, intended to calm market fears over that country’s debt crisis. I understand ‘IMF’ and I understand ‘EU’. I understand ‘bailout’ and I understand what a ‘debt crisis’ is, and why this particular one has happened. I also, pretty much, understand ‘the markets’, even if I do struggle to grasp why

Daniel Hannan

Politics: The right way to help Ireland

Why is Britain committing £7 billion to a bailout which will trap Ireland in its present discontents? Would you trust an economic forecaster who had recently said this? The euro has done more to enforce budgetary discipline in the rest of Europe than any number of exhortations from the IMF or the OECD. If we remain outside the euro, we will simply continue to subside into a position of relative poverty and inefficiency compared to our more prosperous European neighbours. Or this: The euro has already provided great internal stability to the eurozone. Or this: If we get rid of sterling and adopt the euro, we will also get rid of sterling

Friday

Daniel Korski

Iberian blues

I’m finishing a two-day trip to Spain and am about to board a plane, just as the bond markets turn their attention to the Iberian Peninsula. As James wrote yesterday, the gap between Spanish 10-year government bonds and those of Germany has widened to as much as 2.59 percentage points – the biggest gap since the introduction of the euro. For its part, the Portuguese government said it was under no pressure from the European Central Bank or other Eurozone member-states to accept financial aid to ease its debt and deficit problems. That sounds like the noise before the defeat. Portugal was brought to a halt yesterday by a strike

Thursday

James Forsyth

Why Spain matters to Britain

So far Ireland and Greece have been bailed out with relative ease. If Portugal required external assistance, Europe could run to that too. But bailing out Spain would be another matter entirely. As The New York Times points out today, the Spanish economy is twice as big as the Irish, Greek and Portuguese ones combined. Spain’s situation is not yet critical. But as the NYT piece sets out very clearly, there are some extremely worrying signs. The gap between Spanish and German gilt yields is now at the biggest point it has been since the introduction of the euro. Spanish banks are also heavily exposed to Portuguese debt. Compounding these

Tuesday

Alex Massie

The End of the Party?

Following this post on Fianna Fail, a Dublin correspondent cautions against underestimating the stubbornness of their hold upon the people: Fianna Fail will rise again. For two reasons: i) Fine Gael and Labour may need the support of lots of other parties to get anything done. The scope for internal disagreement is immense. It is likely that they will lose popular support very quickly if they preside over savage cuts, which they will have to do; ii) For those of us old enough to remember, Fianna Fail acted like thugs in opposition. They opposed everything (including the Anglo-Irish Agreement) and whipped up popular hysteria against the government over the smallest

Monday

David Blackburn

Cowen will seek a dissolution next year

There has been much consternation and intrigue swirling around both Dublin and Westminster this afternoon about the near-collapse of the governing coalition in Ireland. The Greens, who support Brian Cowen’s Fianna Fáil-led government, pulled out; seeking a dissolution in the hope that it might save their skins from the fate that is likely (though not certain) to befall Fianna Fáil. If the government had collapsed, then IMF would have postponed the bailout. At least now Cowen can formulate a monetary plan, hopefully under the oversight of Ireland’s international creditors, to free the country from its current extremis.