Israel

Don’t expect Cairo to become Kabul now that the Muslim Brotherhood’s presidential candidate, Mohammed Mursi, has been sworn into power earlier today. There are real fears, of course, about the future of Egypt under an Islamist president and it’s foolish to whitewash Mursi as either moderate or benign. The Muslim Brotherhood is a deeply reactionary and dangerous group, but Mursi will find it extremely difficult to implement the more radical aspects of his agenda.   Officially, the Brotherhood has said it will respect all existing treaties – a subtle attempt to placate fears about Egypt’s future relations with Israel. Yet, when Mursi’s candidature was announced one of the clerics invited

Will they or won’t they? Most political parlour games involve a question of this kind and the one about whether Israel will strike Iran – played out regularly in Washington, London and Paris – is no exception. The last couple of days have seen more sabre-rattling than before. Israeli Vice Premier Moshe Yaalon, who heads the Strategic Affairs Ministry, and is a former commander of the Israeli military, said all of Iran’s nuclear installations are vulnerable to military strikes while the US defence secretary was quoted as saying he thought Israel was likely to bomb Iran within months. They may or may not, but it is unlikely they will communicate

An Israeli strike on Iran has to be the most over-predicted event of recent years. It was meant to happen last year. And the year before that. But now there are reasons why 2012 could, indeed, be the year when Israel will find it propitious to take overt military action against Iran’s nuclear programme. (Everyone assumes that a range of covert activities, from assassinations to cyber attacks, are already ongoing). The Iranian government is moving closer to having the requisite capabilities, and can reasonably be expected to take the final steps towards nuclearisation. What better way for Tehran to distract attention from their burgeoning problems — including sanctions, economic hardship,

While the Palestinian bid for membership at the United Nations moved closer to rejection, it turned out that Palestine has a veto over which UN agencies the United States funds. For after Palestine gained admission to UNESCO, the US administration followed through on its threats and cut the organisation’s funding. As UNESCO is based on assessed contributions from member-states, others cannot make up the short-fall. The Palestinian Authority is now considering making applications to the WHO, WIPO and the International Telecommunications Union – technocratic bodies that actually play a large in role. For example, the WHO is crucial for dealing with global pandemics like SARS and Swine Flue. So while

There are many questions arising from the prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas, not least whether it opens the door to a more lasting deal in future. But one question that deserves more attention than it will get, and ought to concern European policymakers, is where international aid is going. Take this little snippet from Reuters: “Palestinians freed by Israel in a trade for soldier Gilad Shalit took their morning exercise on Wednesday around a luxury swimming pool overlooking the Mediterranean, instead of circling the prison yard as they have done for long years inside. There was none of the usual breakfast-room free-for-all at Gaza’s 4-star Al-Mashtal beach front hotel. The

It’s difficult for the outside world to understand the huge significance that Gilad Shalit’s release, this morning, has for Israel. A soldier captured by Hamas five years ago, he has become a huge cause célèbre — to the extent that black cabs in London were even commissioned with his picture on it. Books that he wrote aged 11 were printed and bought in their thousands by Israelis. He was wanted back so badly that Israel has agreed to release 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, among them hardcore terrorists. Events stemming from the Arab Spring have made both sides eager to do a deal, which experts say might contribute — even if in

The halls of the UN are packed with presidents and foreign ministers. But for all the thousands of subjects under discussion, this year’s General Assembly will be remembered for one issue only: the Palestinian statehood application. Mahmoud Abbas has made clear he wants to proceed, despite the reality of a US veto. In the end, it may not come down a showdown. If an application is made to the UN Security Council, the issue will likely go to a sub-committee of the full UNSC and take quite some time before it comes to a vote, whatever the Palestinians may want. That is why the US prefers the option to a

As Daniel wrote this morning, the Middle East peace process has returned to the headlines. Palestinian President Abbas has called for Palestine to be granted full membership of the United Nations, adding that the Palestinians had “legitimate right” to full membership. Abbas added that he remained committed to working with Israel, but said that negotiations had reached “an impasse, a dead end due to the stubborn policies of the Israeli Government that reject commitment to reference of negotiations based on international legitimacy.” This announcement would appear to have made Britain’s diplomatic position no less uncertain. Just as before, Britain’s position will depend on the precise wording of the resolution. Even